The Propylene Value Chain

Transcription

1 The Propylene Value Chain An examination of factors influencing the propylene downstream chain George Martin Senior Consultant 2016 Annual APLA Reunion November 2016 Sheraton Hotel Buenos Aires 1

2 Agenda US C3 and derivatives pricing Supply & demand of C3 and derivatives Summary and conclusions 2

3 Propylene and derivatives pricing 3

4 Propylene s main downstream chains Propylene C3 Polypropylene PP Alcohols Propylene Oxide PO Acrylonitrile ACN Acrylic Fibres Isopropanol (IPA) 2-Ethyl Hexanol (2-EH) Normal Butanol (NBA) IsoButanol (IBA) PU* PG** PU* - Polyurethane PG** - Propylene glycol 4

5 Cents/lb C3 - PP spread narrows, margins fall Polypropylene Propylene Spread 5

6 USD/MT Acrylonitrile slowly coming back, but still down 6

7 USD/MT Propylene Oxide Prices down with crude oil 7

8 USD/MT Solvents and plasticizers 8

9 USD/MT Phenol and acetone pricing (Export spot, FOB US Gulf) 9

10 Supply & Demand 10

11 How is propylene used? 11

12 On purpose propylene (PDH) plants Company Capacity 000 tonnes/year Location Start-up Status Dow Chemical 750 Freeport, Texas Dec 2015 Online Enterprise Products 750 Mont Belvieu, Texas Q Under construction Formosa Plastics 658 Point Comfort, Texas 2017 Under construction Inter Pipeline 500 Alberta End-2019 Evaluation BASF (MTP) 475 Freeport, Texas 2019 Cancelled Sunoco 650,000? Pennsylvania NA Evaluation Dow Chemical New plant US NA Cancelled Enterprise Products New plant Texas, US Shelved Cancelled REXtac 300 Odessa, Texas Cancelled Cancelled 12

13 Thousand Tonnes US propylene exports expected to grow Propylene exports will increase as new US supply comes online 13

14 New US polypropylene (PP) projects Company Capacity Location Start-up Comments Goradia 450,000 Edmonton, Canada late 2019? Formosa Petrochemical NA St James parish, LA NA Aproved Formosa Plastics NA Point Comfort, TX NA? Braskem NA NA NA Evaluation At this rate of PP supply growth, markets in 2020 and beyond could be even tighter than they are today. 14

15 Global PP capacity (72m tonnes/year in 2015) 15

16 PP production in Latin America (2.4m tonnes) 16

17 PP demand growth in S. & C. America ( ) ARGENTINA 2.0% BOLIVIA 7.7% BRAZIL 2.4% CHILE 4.7% COLOMBIA 5.0% COSTA RICA 9.0% CUBA 29.2% DOM. REP. 2.7% ECUADOR 4.7% EL SALVADOR 12.7% GUATEMALA 4.7% HONDURAS 5.9% JAMAICA 24.6% NICARAGUA 5.9% PANAMA 14.9% PARAGUAY 8.4% PERU 4.1% TRINIDAD - URUGUAY 7.6% VENEZUELA -1.0% OTHER LATIN COUNTRIES 13.2% 17

18 A mature outlook for acrylonitrile ABS has surpassed acrylic fibre as the largest end-use; acrylic fibre growth is limited by strong competition from polyester ABS to remain the key driver for acrylonitrile Brazil: Sole producer in S. & C. America with 90K tonnes going mostly to acrylic fibres and exports. Peru largest regional consumer Capacity: 6.4m tonnes/year Consumption: 5.6m tonnes/year Source: ICIS supply and demand database 18

19 Propylene Oxide consumption (8.9m tonnes) 19

20 Propylene oxide consumption in C. & S. America Brazil = Only regional producer with 235,000 tonnes/year 20

21 Summary and Conclusions 21

22 What this could mean for the US Overseas markets will become less of a factor in the US as domestic propylene and PP production ramps up US polymer exports will likely increase, but markets will not be as long as polyethylene s US will have to be more competitive in the global market, even if this results in lower margins US feedstock advantage over other regions will remain narrow for as long as crude oil prices are down US PP margins will remain under pressure, but feedstock advantage will keep US producers in the black 22

23 In Latin America Low-cost raw materials in the US will remain the main obstacle for propylene/polypropylene projects in the region A propylene plant and a 250K mt/yr PP plant are planned in Tarija, Bolivia, with construction planned to start in 2017 and production expected to start in late 2021 Latin America is poised to benefit from increased competition in global markets to place surplus PP production from the US, the Middle East and Asia But the benefits may not materialize in countries where high import tariffs exist 23

24 But the most unpredictable factor for chemical trade will be 24

25 Thank you George Martin