Appendix S1. List of Figures. List of Tables
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1 Appendix S1 List of Figures S1 Comparison of death rates in RealAge sample to US death rates S2 RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers S3 RealAge delta in RealAge population S4 RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers - age 25 to S5 RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers - age 45 to S6 RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers - age 65 to S7 Calibration plot - Age S8 Calibration plot - RealAge S9 Calibration plot - Framingham S10 Calibration plot - Framingham (unscaled age) S11 Calibration plot - Framingham (unscaled age, indicators only) S12 Comparison of RealAge score distributions for all deceased/surviving users and deceased/surviving "healthy" users (heart disease) S13 Comparison of RealAge score distributions for all deceased/surviving users and deceased/surviving "healthy" users (cancer) S14 Comparison of RealAge score distributions for all deceased/surviving users and deceased/surviving "healthy" users (external causes) List of Tables S1 25 to 44 - causes of death S2 45 to 64 - causes of death S3 65 to 84 - causes of death S4 Log-Likelihood for Table 4 Comparison of Age and RealAge S5 Framingham Hard Coronary Heart Disease 10-Year Risk Model results unscaled age S6 Framingham Hard Coronary Heart Disease 10-Year Risk Model results indicators only, unscaled age. 11 S7 25 to 44 - model results S8 25 to 44 - model results (age base) S9 45 to 64 - model results S10 45 to 64 - model results (age base) S11 65 to 84 - model results S12 65 to 84 - model results (age base) S13 All users - Death from Heart Disease S14 Death from Heart Disease (age in base hazard) S15 All users - Death from Cancer S16 Death from Cancer (age in base hazard) S17 All users - Death from External Cause S18 Death from External Cause (age in base hazard) S19 All users - at least two years follow-up S20 All users - Death from Heart Disease, no Report Diagnosis or Interest for Heart Attack or Stroke, no Smoking S21 All users - Death from Cancer, no Reported Diagnosis or Interest for Cancer, no Smoking S22 All users - Death from External Cause, no Reported Diagnosis or Interest for Depression
2 Comparison to US Death Rates Comparison of Death Rates Realge US Deaths per 100, Deaths in RealAge California data Deaths in US Age Figure S1: Comparison of death rates in RealAge sample to US death rates. 1
3 Distribution of RealAge delta RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers (190,000) Density RealAge delta Figure S2: RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers 2
4 RealAge delta in RealAge population (10 million only) Frequency 0e+00 2e+05 4e+05 6e+05 8e+05 1e RealAge delta Figure S3: RealAge delta in RealAge population 3
5 Causes of death and RealAge delta by age group 25 to 44 Table S1: 25 to 44 - causes of death Cause of Death Count Follow-Up Mean Follow-Up Median External Causes Cancer Heart Disease # of users in sample 74,965 # deceased in sample 118 4
6 RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers (age 25 to 44) Deceased Density RealAge delta Figure S4: RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers - age 25 to 44 5
7 45 to 64 Table S2: 45 to 64 - causes of death Cause of Death Count Follow-Up Mean Follow-Up Median Cancer Heart Disease External Causes Chronic Lower Respiratory # of users in sample 91,886 # deceased in sample 479 6
8 RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers (age 45 to 64) Density Deceased RealAge delta Figure S5: RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers - age 45 to 64 7
9 65 to 84 Table S3: 65 to 84 - causes of death Cause of Death Count Follow-Up Mean Follow-Up Median Cancer Heart Disease Chronic Lower Respiratory Cerebrovascular Disease # of users in sample 21,847 # deceased in sample 449 8
10 RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers (age 65 to 84) Density Deceased RealAge delta Figure S6: RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers - age 65 to 84 9
11 Log-Likelihood for Table 4 Comparison of Age and RealAge Table S4: Log-Likelihood for Table 4 Comparison of Age and RealAge Model.1 Log.Likelihood Age , Model.2 Log.Likelihood chisq.df.p.value RealAge , 0, 0 Model.3 Log.Likelihood chisq.df.p.value Age.and.RealAge.Delta , 1,
12 Framingham Risk Factor Estimates Table S5: Framingham Hard Coronary Heart Disease 10-Year Risk Model results unscaled age Age (1.054, 1.092) Current Smoker (2.858, 6.221) Blood Pressure (points) (1.062, 1.510) Cholesterol (points) (0.789, 1.033) HDL Cholesterol (points) (0.961, 1.504) Table S6: Framingham Hard Coronary Heart Disease 10-Year Risk Model results indicators only, unscaled age Age (1.064, 1.097) Current Smoker (2.889, 6.290) Blood Pressure (1.085, 2.264) Cholesterol (0.494, 1.085)
13 Calibration plots Age Fraction Surviving 5 Years Predicted 5 Year Survival Figure S7: Calibration plot - Age. 12
14 RealAge Fraction Surviving 5 Years Predicted 5 Year Survival Figure S8: Calibration plot - RealAge. 13
15 Framingham Fraction Surviving 5 Years Predicted 5 Year Survival Figure S9: Calibration plot - Framingham. 14
16 Framingham (unscaled age) Fraction Surviving 5 Years Predicted 5 Year Survival Figure S10: Calibration plot - Framingham (unscaled age) 15
17 Framingham (unscaled age, indicators only) Fraction Surviving 5 Years Predicted 5 Year Survival Figure S11: Calibration plot - Framingham (unscaled age, indicators only) 16
18 Estimates by age group 25 to 44 Table S7: 25 to 44 - model results Age (1.021, 1.087) RealAge (1.066, 1.095) Age (1.017, 1.082) RealAgeDelta (1.073, 1.102) Table S8: 25 to 44 - model results (age base) RealAgeDelta (1.071, 1.103)
19 45 to 64 Table S9: 45 to 64 - model results Age (1.050, 1.085) RealAge (1.079, 1.096) Age (1.047, 1.082) RealAgeDelta (1.085, 1.103) Table S10: 45 to 64 - model results (age base) RealAgeDelta (1.084, 1.105)
20 65 to 84 Table S11: 65 to 84 - model results Age (1.064, 1.100) RealAge (1.064, 1.083) Age (1.067, 1.104) RealAgeDelta (1.059, 1.081) Table S12: 65 to 84 - model results (age base) RealAgeDelta (1.060, 1.082)
21 Heart Disease Estimates Table S13: All users - Death from Heart Disease Age (1.077, 1.099) RealAge (1.087, 1.105) Age (1.077, 1.100) RealAgeDelta (1.092, 1.119) # of users in sample 187,904 # deceased in sample 252 Table S14: Death from Heart Disease (age in base hazard) RealAgeDelta (1.095, 1.123)
22 RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers Density Deceased (Heart Disease) No heart attack/stroke diagnosis or interest, no smoking RealAge delta Figure S12: Comparison of RealAge score distributions for all deceased/surviving users and deceased/surviving "healthy" users (heart disease). 21
23 Cancer Estimates Table S15: All users - Death from Cancer Age (1.084, 1.103) RealAge (1.071, 1.085) Age (1.084, 1.103) RealAgeDelta (1.042, 1.067) # of users in sample 187,991 # deceased in sample 339 Table S16: Death from Cancer (age in base hazard) RealAgeDelta (1.039, 1.064)
24 RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers Density Deceased (Cancer) No cancer diagnosis or interest, no smoking RealAge delta Figure S13: Comparison of RealAge score distributions for all deceased/surviving users and deceased/surviving "healthy" users (cancer). 23
25 External Cause Estimates Table S17: All users - Death from External Cause Age (0.980, 1.012) RealAge (1.010, 1.038) Age (0.976, 1.008) RealAgeDelta (1.070, 1.108) # of users in sample 187,741 # deceased in sample 89 Table S18: Death from External Cause (age in base hazard) RealAgeDelta (1.063, 1.111)
26 RealAge delta in California sample with full identifiers Density Deceased (External Cause) No depression diagnosis or interest RealAge delta Figure S14: Comparison of RealAge score distributions for all deceased/surviving users and deceased/surviving "healthy" users (external causes). 25
27 Estimates for users with at least two years of follow-up Table S19: All users - at least two years follow-up Age (1.073, 1.085) RealAge (1.075, 1.084) Age (1.071, 1.085) RealAgeDelta (1.074, 1.090) # of users in sample 160,261 # deceased in sample
28 Estimates for "healthy" users Table S20: All users - Death from Heart Disease, no Report Diagnosis or Interest for Heart Attack or Stroke, no Smoking Age (1.046, 1.097) RealAge (1.063, 1.107) Age (1.050, 1.102) RealAgeDelta (1.070, 1.137) # of users in sample 84,190 # deceased in sample 40 Table S21: All users - Death from Cancer, no Reported Diagnosis or Interest for Cancer, no Smoking Age (1.083, 1.132) RealAge (1.054, 1.088) Age (1.083, 1.132) RealAgeDelta (0.968, 1.041) # of users in sample 71,271 # deceased in sample 52 27
29 Table S22: All users - Death from External Cause, no Reported Diagnosis or Interest for Depression Age (0.965, 1.020) RealAge (0.985, 1.035) Age (0.963, 1.019) RealAgeDelta (1.019, 1.115) # of users in sample 124,919 # deceased in sample 27 28
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