Consequences for Emergency Management: A German Perspective

Transcription

1 Zentrum für Strahlenschutz und Radioökologie Rolf Michel Rolf Michel Advanced WE-Heraeus Physics School "Ionising Radiation and Protection of Man, , R. Michel, Bad IRS, Leibniz Honnef Universität Hannover A SSK K Perspective: What did we learn? Learning What are the facts? & What do we know? What are our experiences? & What are the consequences? 1

2 Consequences for Germany Emergency management and precautionary radiation protection in the future radiological protection Accident management Assessment of the situation and predictions Off site emergency response and precautionary radiation protection Measures of off site emergency response Transition from emergency to existing situations, both in time and space Emergency management Fukushima in the deliberations of the SSK Crisis Organization The Japanese provisional limits for foodstuffs Optimization and after care Communication in emergency and existing situations Communication national/international Examples from Japan A German particularity: the German Angst Goals of emergency management On site accident management Mitigate the consequences of an accident or incident by technical measures Off site emergency response Disaster control Avoid deterministic effects by measures of disaster control Avoid inacceptable stochastic risks by measures of disaster control Precautionary radiation protection Avoid inacceptable stochastic risks by measures of precautionary radiation protection Optimization: minimize the radiation exposures and the stochastic risks on the basis of the ALARA principle 2

3 Emergency Management Nuclear emergency management in case of a nuclear incident or accident or of a radiological incident On site accident management Off site emergency response Disaster control Basic Recommendations for Disaster Control in the Vicinity of Nuclear Installations Precautionary radiation protection Precautionary Radiation Protection Act ICRP 103: emergency A non routine situation or event that necessitates prompt action primarily mitigate a hazard or adverse consequences for human health and safety, quality of life, property or the environment. This includes situations for which prompt action is warranted to mitigate the effects of a perceived hazard. 3

4 Practices and Interventions (ICRP 60) practices Dose Interventions Optimization Intervention level Dose limit Constraints Optimization No measures below the intervention level No further optimization ICRP 103: Exposure situations Planned exposure situation: Everyday situations involving the planned operation of sources including decommissioning, disposal of radioactive waste and rehabilitation of the previously occupied land. Existing exposure situation: A situation that already exists when a decision on control has to be taken, including natural background radiation and residues from past practices that were operated outside the Commission's recommendations. Emergency exposure situation: A non routine situation or event that necessitates prompt action primarily to mitigate a hazard or adverse consequences for human health and safety, quality of life, property or the environment. 4

5 Optimisation, Constraints and Reference Level (ICRP 103) Planned exposure situations Dose limit Dose Existing and emergency exposure situations Reference level (RL) Constraint Optimisation RL emergency situations: msv pro Jahr RL existing situations: 1-20 msv pro Jahr Optimierung A RL of 1 msv per year is the long term goal of optimization. Reference level In emergency or existing controllable exposure situations, this represents the level of dose or risk, above which it is judged to be inappropriate to plan to allow exposures to occur, and below which optimization of protection should be implemented. The chosen value for a reference level will depend upon the prevailing circumstances of the exposure under consideration. ICRP 103 5

6 Reference Values (RV) for planned exposure situations Dose in msv Reference Level (RL) for existing and emergency exposure situations Dose limit (occupational) Dose limit (public) Dose constraint (public) Dosis pro Jahr in msv Emergency situations msv per year Existing situations 1 20 msv per year A RL of 1 msv per year is the long term goal of optimization. ICRP 103 Application of reference level during planning and realization of protective measures Effective dose of the representative person 6

7 Application of reference levels A Reference Level of 1 msv is recommend as the long term objective. Evolution of the distribution of individual doses with time as a result of the process of implementation of the protection strategy The Idea of the Criteria of the Radiation Dose for the Radiation Protection * There is general agreement that epidemiological methods used for the estimation of cancer risk do not have the power to directly reveal cancer risks in the dose range up to around 100 msv. Therefore the principle of optimization of protection. ALARA (As Low As Reason ably Achievable), should be applied. 7

8 Provisional Permissible Limit in Fukushima as of : 20 msv external exposure per year Defined via an ambient dose rate of 3,8 Sv/h. This amounts to 20 msv/a via external exposure according to the model calculation below : (outdoor external dose rate)*(0,333 time outdoors * 0,333 time in a japanese home * 0,333 time in school or office) E ext = 0,0038*24*365*(0,333*1+0,333*0,7+0,333*0,1) msv = 20 msv. occupancy factors The effective provisional limits for food are compatible with an internal exposure of 1 msv/a. Radiation exposure standard for Fukushima students set at international maximum The government has set the permissible hourly radiation dose at schools in Fukushima Prefecture at 3.8 Sv/h a level that would see students absorb the internationally recognized maximum of 20 msv per year. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology set the hourly allowable dose for kindergartens, nursery, primary and junior high schools in Fukushima Prefecture on April 19. In order to keep students within the new standard maximum dose, the ministry has also called on the schools to limit children's time outside. The standard is designed to prevent students from absorbing more than the maximum 20 millisieverts per year set by the International Commission on Radiological Protection, and is based on the assumption that students spend about eight hours per day outdoors. To further validate the new standard, at the request of the government the Cabinet Office's Nuclear Safety Commission will continue to monitor radiation levels at Fukushima schools by issuing portable dosimeters to teachers. The education ministry's safety committee has also pointed out that overall radiation exposure will probably drop over time as radioactive material reaches its half-life, making the 3.8 microsievert hourly limit "really on the safe side. However, looming in the background is the fact the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant has yet to be brought under control, leading to calls for the education ministry to establish more flexible radiation standards and policies. (modified) 8

9 Topics in the consultations of the Crisis Management Group of the German Commission on Radiological Protection regarding the Fukushima accident Radiological situation in Japan, Germany and other countries What happened? What could happen in the future? Radiological sitation and analysis of its consequences Estimates on the basis of incomplete information First appointments, statements, and recommendations Contamination of airplanes, ships, passengers Germans in Japan, assistance for Japan Radiological protection and legal classification Rules for Europe Elaboration of a communicable rationale Limits for food and feed Limits for contamination of vehicles and goods Rules for the disposal of contaminated items Prospective estimates of the consequences of the accident, in particular of the radiation exposures Requirements for the future What is needed? What did we learn? The Council Regulation from 1987 for a Nuclear Emergency in Europe 9

10 The EC maximum permitted levels Council Regulation 3954/87 became a problem because Europe did not have an emergency. Infant foods Dairy produce Other foodstuffs except minor foodstuffs Minor foodstuffs Liquid foodstuffs Strontium isotopes Iodine isotopes Alpha emitting plutonium and transplutonium isotopes All other radionuclides with half lives > 10 d Dose criteria for the first 6 months after the accident: Effective dose for infants 2,5 msv, thyroid dose for infants 25 msv Effective dose for adults 5 msv, thyroid dose for adults 50 msv Japanese provisional limits for radioactivity in food* as a basis of the executive ordinance EU 351/2011 Rationale for Europe: Reference value 1 msv/a * Compatible with 1 msv/a 10

11 Japanese Provisional Limits SSK K recommended a reference value of 1 msv/a for Europe. The concept was adopted by the EU Commission. 11

12 New Standard limits for Radionuclides in Foods Department of Food Safety Pharmaceutical & Food Safety Bureau Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar 2012 Provisional Japanese Limits for Food Category Limits in the year 2011 (based on 5 msv/a) [Bq/kg] Limits since (based on 1 msv/a) [Bq/kg] Drinking water 200 (100*) 10 Milk, milk products Other foods Infant food 50 * For baby food Since the provisional limits in Japan were lowered in order to increase the trust of the people in the food supplied. Radiologically, there was need to reduce the limits. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar

13 The concept of Current Provisional regulation Values The current provisional regulation values were established based on the concept shown below, in line with index relating to the restriction of food intake derived by the Nuclear Safety Commission under assumption of nuclear power plant accidents. 1) Set the annual maximum permissible dose from radioactive cesium in foods as 5mSv and assign to each food category. 2) Assuming that people continue to consume contaminated foods for a long time, derive regulatory values, based on the intakes according to food categories, so that the permissible dose is not exceeded. Note: Apply the lowest levels which are obtained by taking into consideration the intake and susceptibility of the groups of adults, young children, and infants to all age groups. e.g.)the setting method of current provisional regulation values for radioactive cesium maximum permissible dose 5mSv/year Assign 1mSv to each food category 1mSv 1mSv 1mSv 1mSv 1mSv Food category Drinking water Milk, dairy products Vegetables Grains Meat, eggs, fish, etc. Calculate limit values (Bq/kg), taking into consideration the intake and susceptibility. Young Adults Infants Minimum children 規制値の計算 Regulation values 200Bq/kg 200Bq/kg 500Bq/kg 500Bq/kg 500Bq/kg Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar 2012 Establishment of New Standard limits for Radionuclides in Food 1. Concept of Review Based on current scientific knowledge, commodities that meet current provisional regulation values are considered to be safe, and in fact food safety is basically secured. However, to achieve further food safety and consumer confidence, Japan is planning to reduce maximum permissible dose from 5mSv/year to 1mSv/year. Establish the four categories of Drinking water", Infant foods" and Milk", which are deemed to need special consideration, and General foods for other foods. 2. New standard limits (Date of enforcement : April 1, Transitional measure applies to some commodities.) Provisional regulation values for radioactive cesium 1 Category Limit Drinking water 200 Milk, dairy products 200 Vegetables Grains 500 Meat, eggs, fish, etc. New standard limits for radioactive cesium 2 Category Limit Drinking water 10 Milk 50 General Foods 100 Infant Foods 50 NOTE: 1 These values take into account the contribution of radioactive strontium (Unit:Bq/kg) 2 These limits take into account the contribution of radioactive strontium, plutonium etc. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar

14 The range of food categories Food category Drinking water Infant Foods The reason to establish new standard limits 1 Water is essential for human life and there is no substitution for water, and its consumption is large. 2 WHOʼs guidance level for radioactive cesium in drinking water is 10Bq/kg. 3 Strict management is possible for the radionuclides in tap water. The Food Safety Commission pointed out that the susceptibility to radiation may be higher in childhood than in adulthood. The range of foods Drinking water, water used for cooking and tea drinks, which is substitute for water Foods approved to be labeled as fit for infants based on Article 26 Paragraph 1 of the Health Promotion Law Foods and drinks sold as intended for infants Milk General Foods 1 Children consume a lot. 2 Food Safety Commission pointed out that a susceptibility to radiation may be higher in childhood than in adulthood. For the following reasons, foods other than given above are categorized as General Foods" 1 It is possible to make the influence of individual differences in eating habits (deviation of the foods to be consumed) minimal. 2 Regulation intelligible for people 3 Consistency with international views, such as these of Codex Alimentarius Commission Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar 2012 Milk and milk drinks refers to products specified in Article 2 Paragraph 1 and 40 of the Ministerial Ordinance concerning Compositional Standards Etc. for Milk and Milk Products. Foods other than given above The concept of radionuclides to be regulated (1) Radionuclides Targets to be regulated are all radionuclides which were placed on the trial calculation list of the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency as substances emitted by the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and whose half-life is over 1 year. Note: Standard limits are not established for radioactive Iodine, which has a short half-life and has been no longer detected, and the for Uranium, whose level is the almost the same in the nuclear power plant site as in the nature environment. Regulated Radionuclides Cs-134 Cs-137 Sr-90 Pu Ru-106 Physical Half-life 2.1 years 30 years 29 years 14 years or more 367 days Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar

15 The concept of radionuclides to be regulated (2) The concept for establishment of new standard limits The new standard limits for radioactive cesium are established for effective dose of radionuclides (including Sr-90, Ru-106, Pu) not to exceed 1mSV/year. Because radionuclides other than Cs-134 and Cs-137 require a longer time for measurement, following procedure is taken to establish new standard limits. Analyze the migration ratio of each radionuclide according to migration pathway, derive the contribution of radioactive cesium according to product and age categories, and establish standard limits for radioactive cesium so that the sum of effective dose not exceed 1mSv/year. e.g.)the contribution of radionuclides other than radioactive cesium is about 12% (in case of people aged 19 and older) Soil Crops(Feed) Animal products Fresh water(river/lake) Freshwater products Seawater Marine products Intake Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar 2012 The Concept of standard limit for General Foods Operational intervention level 1mSv/year Determine the effective dose to assign to General foods" Subtract the effective dose for Drinking water Calculate limit values, taking into consideration the intake and conversion coefficient according to agecatrgory. Age category Intake Limit value (Bq/kg) under 1 Average 460 Male Female 320 Male Female 210 Male Female 150 Male and older Female 160 pregnant Female 160 Minimum 120 Standard limit 100 Bq/kg <Effective dose for Drinking water =Standard limit for Drinking water (Bq/kg) Intake of drinking water according to age category Dose Coefficient according to age category> In line with WHOʼs guidance level for radioactive cesium in drinking water, the standard limit for Drinking water is established as 10Bq/kg, and the effective dose as about 0.1mSv/year. The effective dose to assign to General foods is determined as about 0.9 msv/year by subtracting the effective dose for Drinking water (about 0.1mSv/year) from the operational intervention level(1msv/year) Limit values are calculated by dividing this effective dose by the intake and conversion coefficient according to age category. (On the assumption that 50% of the marketed foods are contaminated.) Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar

16 The range of Infant Foods Category Foods approved to be labeled as fit for infants based on Article 26 Paragraph 1 of the Health Promotion Law The range of foods Infant formula 粉ミルク Formulated milk powder for young children (Including follow up milk etc.) フォローアップミルク Drinks for young children The limit for Drinking water applies to tea drinks Foods and drinks sold as intended for infants Foods which can be recognized by consumers as products intended for infants from the appearance and labeling of outer package, etc. Foods for young children 赤ちゃん用 (snacks etc.) 7ヶ月から たまごボーロ Baby foods (Weaning foods etc.) ソフトせんべい ベビーフード Others jelly-type sugarcoat, dietary supplement for infants etc. おくすりゼリー 赤ちゃん用サプリメント Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar 2012 The range of Milk and standard limits for Milk and Infant Foods <Foods included in Milk category> The Milk category covers milk and milk drinks. Milk drinks are drink products which are made mainly of milk as the main ingredient, and they include those which are recognized by consumers as similar kinds of drinks to milk and processed milk. Foods included in Milk category Milk Low-fat milk processed milk-based milk drinks Foods not included in Milk category Lactic acid bacteria drinks Yoghurt Cheese Milk refers to products specified in the Ministerial Ordinance concerning Compositional Standards Etc. for Milk and Milk Products. Milk products refers to products specified in the Ministerial Ordinance concerning Compositional Standards Etc. for Milk and Milk Products. Since Milk and Infant foods are categories provided in consideration for children, the standard limit for them is established as a level that is not affected even if all of the marketed foods are contaminated. 50 Bq/kg which is half of new standard limit for General foods (100Bq/kg) applies to Milk and Infant foods. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar

17 Application of standard limits to foods manufactured/processed Basic Concept In principle, processed foods are subject to the standard limit for General foods. The standard limit applies to the various stages of products on a case by case basis, for example, to the finished products or ingredients. For the foods given in 1 and 2 below, the standard limit applies to products in a ready-to-eat state based on the view of Codex Commission. 1 Dry foods that are intended to be consumed in a reconstituted state, such as dried products of mushrooms, seaweeds, fish & shellfish and vegetables etc. The standard limit for General foods applies to ingredients (in a natural state) and reconstituted products. Notes: For foods that are intended to be consumed in a dried state, such as nori(dried laver), niboshi(dried sardines), dried cuttlefish, raisin, etc., the standard limit for General foods applies to ingredients (in a natural state) and finished products (in a dry state). 2 Foods that are consumed after brewing process, such as tea leaves, and foods that are produced through extraction process, such as vegetable oils, like rice oil. There is a big difference in form between ingredients and products before consumption. For these foods, the standard limit does not apply to ingredients. For tea leaves, the standard limit for Drinking water applies to a liquid extract obtained after brewing process. For edible oils, which are obtained through extraction from rice bran or oil seeds, the standard limit for General foods applies to oil as finished product. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar 2012 Ratios of excesses over the standard limit for radioactive cesium in monitoring tests Commodity Rice Vegetables Fruits Tea leaves Mushrooms Milk Beef Fish and shellfishes Others Ratio Fukushima Prefecture March-June July-September Provisional regulation values (500 Bq/kg) New standard limit (100 Bq/kg) Provisional regulation values (500 Bq/kg) New standard limit (100 Bq/kg) Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar 2012 October- November Provisional regulation values (500 Bq/kg) New standard limit (100 Bq/kg) March-June Provisional regulation values (500 Bq/kg) New standard limit (100 Bq/kg) Other prefectures July-September Provisional regulation values (500 Bq/kg) New standard limit (100 Bq/kg) October- November Provisional regulation values (500 Bq/kg) New standard limit (100 Bq/kg) The number of excesses/tests -/- -/- 0/669 1/669 1/619 8/619 -/- -/- 0/2061 1/2061 0/503 0/503 (Ratio) (-) (-) (0%) (0.1%) (0.2%) (1.3%) (-) (-) (0%) (0%) (0%) (0%) The number of excesses/tests 159/ /1517 0/1366 5/1366 3/ / / /2190 0/1264 0/1264 0/1409 0/1409 (Ratio) (10.5%) (20.4%) (0%) (0.4%) (0.3%) (1.2%) (1.3%) (7.7%) (0%) (0%) (0%) (0%) The number of excesses/tests 11/188 71/188 6/779 48/779 6/489 49/489 0/152 0/152 0/478 3/478 0/522 3/522 (Ratio) (5.9%) (37.8%) (0.8%) (6.2%) (1.2%) (10.0%) (0%) (0%) (0%) (0.6%) (0%) (0.6%) The number of excesses/tests 1/1 0/2 -/- 42/301 29/ /1755 (Ratio) (100%) 2 (0%) 2 (-) 1 2 (14%) 2 (15.5%) 2 (6.9%) 2 The number of excesses/tests 38/212 88/212 15/342 47/342 25/324 67/324 0/87 4/87 2/175 12/175 40/ /708 (Ratio) (17.9%) (41.5%) (4.4%) (13.7%) (7.7%) (20.7%) (0%) (4.6%) (1.1%) (6.9%) (5.6%) (27.5%) The number of excesses/tests 0/285 4/285 0/137 0/137 0/91 0/91 0/283 4/283 0/338 0/338 0/325 0/325 (Ratio) (0%) (1.40%) (0%) (0%) (0%) (0%) (0%) (1.41 %) (0%) (0%) (0%) (0%) The number of excesses/tests 1/47 13/47 56/ /1165 2/ /1644 0/12 0/12 77/ /8519 9/ /26737 (Ratio) (2.1%) (27.7%) (4.8%) (10.5%) (0.1%) (1.1%) (0%) (0%) (0.9%) (7.8%) (0%) (0.5%) The number of excesses/tests 51/ /327 55/ /872 33/ /919 4/487 34/487 5/705 32/705 6/ /1298 (Ratio) (15.6%) (51.1%) (6.3%) (38.5%) (3.6%) (32.8%) (0.8%) (7%) (0.7%) (4.5%) (0.5%) (2.3%) The number of excesses/tests 9/148 18/148 7/450 51/450 43/ /926 0/136 8/136 8/809 57/809 3/902 49/902 (Ratio) (6.1%) (12.2%) (1.6%) (11.3%) (4.6%) (11.6%) (0%) (5.9%) (1.0%) (7.0%) (0.3%) (5.4%) Total The number of excesses/tests 270/ / / / / / / / / / / /32404 (Ratio) (9.9%) (24.6%) (2.4%) (10.6%) (1.8%) (9.2%) (2.1%) (6.5%) (0.8%) (5.4%) (0.5%) (1.3%) 1 The notion -/- shows that tests number is zero. 2 As for Tea leaves, new standard limit for Drinking water (10Bq/kg) applies to a liquid extract obtained after brewing process. 3 As for Milk", the number of excesses shows the number of cases for which 50 Bq/kg, the new standard limit for Milk, is exceeded. 17

18 Transitional measures Food safety is ensured for commodities that meet current provisional regulation values for radionuclides. Transitional measures are set for some commodities (rice, beef, soybean) which needs a certain period of preparation to prevent any confusion in distribution at the time of shift to new standard limits. The Government of Japan gives thorough explanation to consumers and producers about food safety and reasons why these foods are targets of the measures. Raw materials Foods manufactured or processed Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar Provisional New standard limits regulation values Foods manufactured, processed or imported by Mar. 31, 2012 Provisional regulation values (until best-before date ) New standard limits <Transitional measure applies to following commodities> Rice Beef Soy Beans Provisional regulation values (until September 30, 2012) Foods manufactured, processed or imported after Oct. 1, 2012 Foods manufactured, processed or imported after Apr. 1, 2012 New standard limits Foods manufactured, processed or imported by Sep. 30, 2012 Products manufactured or processed from rice or Provisional regulation values (until best-before date ) beef and their import New standard limits Provisional regulation values(until December 31, 2012) Foods manufactured, processed or imported by Dec. 31, 2012 Provisional regulation values (until best-before date ) Products manufactured or processed from soy beans and their import Foods manufactured, processed or imported after Jan. 1, 2013 New standard limits New standard limits Estimation of effective dose on assumption that people continue to consume foods that contain radionuclides at the maximum levels of the new standard limits. Effective dose (msv/year) 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 An actual effective dose is considered to be much smaller, since it is highly unlikely to consume foods contains radioactive cesium at the maximum level of new standard limits through the year. Note: The actual effective dose is estimated at about 0.04mSv/year(median), when the estimation is done using the average intake for all ages. On the assumption that 50% of General foods and 100% of Drinking water, Milk and Infant foods are contaminated. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar

19 Estimation of effective dose from radionuclides in foods Estimation of effective dose from radioactive cesium based on new standard limit. msv/y 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0, Median 中央値 パーセンタイル値 percentile Estimation is based on the monitoring data of the radionuclides in foods. (Released by MHLW; August 1 - November 16, 2011) The actual effective dose under new standard limits are estimated to be smaller than operational intervention level (1mSv/year) on the assumption that people continue to consume the national average intake(all ages) of foods for one year that contain radioactive cesium at the median concentration or 90 percentile concentration. Notes) For non-detection data, detection limits(up to 20 Bq/kg) for Cs-134 and Cs-137 were used. When the detection limit was not shown, 5Bq/kg was applied to food groups for which the ratio of ND was not less than 80%, 10 Bq/kg was applied to food groups for which the ratio of ND was 60% to 80%, and 20 Bq/kg to others. This was taken into consideration the view of GEMS/food of WHO. Effective dose from radionuclides other than radioactive cesium are added to these estimates in reality, because these values are estimated only from radioactive cesium. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar 2012 Estimation of effective dose from radionuclides in foods msv/y The intake of K-40 (natural radionuclide) is comparable to the result obtained from samples collected before the Tokyo Electric Power Companyʼs Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 Estimation of annual effective dose from K-40, Cs-134 and Cs-137 K-40 Cs(134,137) 東京 宮城 福島 Tokyo Miyagi Fukushima Estimation of annual effective dose from natural radionuclides (2008) Foods were purchased in Tokyo, Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures in September and November For perishable foods purchased in Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures, local grown products were selected, wherever possible. If impossible, the products produced in neighboring prefectures were purchased. Based on the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey(2007), the test samples were prepared by mixing all foods purchased and used with drinking water. Then, radionuclides(i-131, Cs134, Cs-137, and K-40) were analyzed using a germanium semiconductor detector, and annual effective dose(msv/man/year) for general eating patterns were estimated. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar 2012 msv/y K-40 Sapporo Sendai Osaka Fukuoka 19

20 Progress of the review of regulation values Notification of provisional regulation values in foods (MHLW)(Mar. 17, 2011) The Minister of Health, Labour and Welfare requested food safety risk assessment of radionuclides to Food Safety Commission(Mar. 20) Report of food safety risk assessment by Food Safety Commission (Oct. 27) The Minister Komiyama talked about a future fundamental plan in a ministerial conference.( Oct. 28) Consultation to Pharmaceutical Affairs and Food Sanitation Council (MHLW) Arrangement of a point of argument by Subcommittee & Section meeting of Pharmaceutical Affairs and Food Sanitation Council (Oct. 31) The discussion on new standard limits by section meeting of Pharmaceutical Affairs and Food Sanitation Council(Nov. 24) Proposal standard limits are created by section meeting of Pharmaceutical Affairs and Food Sanitation Council(Dec. 22) Consultation & Report to/by Radiation Council(MEXT)(Consultation :Dec. 27, Under deliberations) Public comment (Jan. 6, Feb. 4), WTO/TBT notification( Jan.17 - Feb. 10), Risk communication (Jan. 16 Feb. 28)etc. Report by Pharmaceutical Affairs and Food Sanitation Council (MHLW) Promulgation of standard limits (Mar, 2012) Enforcement of standard limits (Apr, 2012) Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar 2012 The problem of changing reference levels as time goes by is a communication problem. You can once only lose the confidence of the public. 20

21 Chronology of Major Events in Chernobyl accident occurs 01:23. Governmental Commission formed evacuation of Pripyat temporary permissible levels for drinking water and foodstuffs evacuation of population in the prohibited zone completed revision of temporary permissible levels. May 1986 temporary annual dose limits for the population set to 100 msv. July 1986 first contamination map, not published until Nov completion of the sarcophagus temporary annual dose limits for the population reduced to 30 msv. Dec revision of temporary permissible levels established temporary annual dose limits reduced to 25 msv. Sept Council of Ministers of USSR adopts 350 msv lifetime dose for relocation to be implemented as of March 1989 contamination maps officially published in the three republics. April 1989 BSSR Academy of Sciences registers disagreement with the 350 msv lifetime dose concept and makes new proposals. Oct USSR requests IAEA to organize an international assessment. Content: Consequences for Germany Emergency management and precautionary radiation protection in the future radiological protection Accident management Assessment of the situation and predictions Off site emergency response and precautionary radiation protection Measures of off site emergency response Transition from emergency to existing situations, both in time and space Emergency management Fukushima in the deliberations of the SSK Crisis Organization The Japanese provisional limits for foodstuffs Optimization and after care Communication in emergency and existing situations Communication national/international Examples from Japan A German particularity: the German Angst 21

22 What were the reactions following the Fukushima Dai ich accident? Disaster business as it is usual since the ancient times of steam boiler explosions and as performed for any other technical catastrophe: Outcry of the public, establishment of inquiry boards and commissions, new regulations are developed, and technical and administrative measures are taken. The motto is: Everything is on trial. In case of Fukushima it runs the same way, the process not yet having come to an end. In many national and international organizations and committees the necessary consequences are discussed. Also SSK received a consulting mandate from BMU, which is worked on in a very large working group of the Committee Emergency Management in the Environment of Nuclear Installations. Disclaimer I emphasize, that such procedures are reasonable and reflect the natural processes of learning. Man learns from experience. This does not only hold for the daily life but also for the handling of complex technologies. The experiences of the Chernobyl accident provide a positive example. The consequences of the Chernobyl accident in Germany were among others the Precautionary Radiation Protection Act, the development of the IMIS system for the surveillance of the environmental radioactivity, as well as improvement of the on site accident management. For Germany, Chernobyl was not a radiological emergency. But, the impact required precautionary radiation protection and adjustments of the emergency management according to the new experiences. 22

23 The lessons from the Fukushima Dai ich accident cover many aspects and problems: INES 6 and 7 accidents do happen. Long term and multiple releases of radioactivity are possible. This was actually known since the Chernobyl accident, but it was neglected because of the particular reactor type at Chernobyl and the special conditions of the accident. Large releases do not only occur into the atmosphere, but can also occur into the hydrosphere. The impact of large accidents is always transnational. Accidents may happen in combination with technical or natural catastrophes and with loss of infrastructure. Which emergency management measures are adequate and justified? How can they be optimized in the case of an emergency? Emergency Management Nuclear emergency management in case of a nuclear incident or accident or of a radiological incident On site accident management Off site emergency response Disaster control Basic Recommendations for Disaster Control in the Vicinity of Nuclear Installations Precautionary radiation protection Precautionary Radiation Protection Act 23

24 On site accident management The following new aspects have to be taken into consideration regarding nuclear accidents: Do we also have design faults? What are the consequences of long term electrical power outages with or without loss of infrastructure, also in combination with technical and natural disasters such as earthquakes, flooding, serious fires, dam failures, chemical accidents, ice and snow catastrophes, plane crashes, military actions, malicious acts, etc.? Do we have sufficient tools for the in time evaluation of options for on site action during the course of an accident? Is the communication of plant conditions warranted in the case of loss of infrastructure? Is external support ensured also in the case of loss of infrastructure? What are the consequences of the loss of the external heat sink? Securing and efficiency of filtering during venting (also Cs??)?Can high hydrogen concentrations be controlled and handled? Is the risk potential of spent fuel ponds taken properly into account? Protection of the personals in an emergency and keeping the capability to act? Assessment of the situation and predictions Do we have the technical and personal prerequisites for an emergency in Germany or in a nearby country? What are the improvements of tools and capabilities needed to predict releases of radioactivity and to estimate exposures? Determination of a potential or real source term, impact assessment, modelling of accidents outside Germany considering not only atmospheric releases but also releases into rivers and in the sea. How fast do we get aerogamma measurements, measurements of ambient dose rates, field measurements and laboratory analyses of the relevant nuclides: H 3; Sr 90/Sr 90; I 131 and short lived radionuclides; Cs 134/Cs 137; Pu 238/Pu 239/Pu 240/Pu 241. What is a Worst Case Scenario? Do Worst Case Analyses make sense? 24

25 Off site emergency response and precautionary radiation protection The basic measures of disaster control are short term measures such as: the order to stay indoors to protect against radioactivity and radiation, the distribution and administration of stable iodine pills to reduce the exposure of the thyroid gland, the evacuation according to beforehand fixed plans as a precautionary measure, on the one hand, and for the protection of the population after massive fallout, on the other. the warning of the population to reframe from ingestions of freshly harvested foodstuffs and fresh milk. Emergency reference levels of the expected doses regulate under which conditions measures of disaster control are to be applied. Off site emergency response and precautionary radiation protection The measures according to the Precautionary Radiation Protection Act are long term measures such as: control of trade with food and feed, recommendations regarding the individual behavior (e.g. the order to close doors and windows, to avoid to stay outdoors, to cover sandboxes, etc.), agricultural measures (e.g. to corral animals in sheltered stables, early harvest, washing of fruits and vegetables, etc.), large area decontamination measures or long term relocation. 25

26 The Idea of the Criteria of the Radiation Dose for the Radiation Protection * There is general agreement that epidemiological methods used for the estimation of cancer risk do not have the power to directly reveal cancer risks in the dose range up to around 100 msv. Therefore the principle of optimization of protection. ALARA (As Low As Reasonably Achievable), should be applied. Optimisation, Constraints and Reference Values (ICRP 103) Planned exposure situations Dose limit Dose Existing and emergency exposure situations Reference level (RL) Constraint Optimisation RL emergency situations: msv pro Jahr RL existing situations: 1-20 msv pro Jahr Optimierung A RL of 1 msv per year is the long term goal of optimization. 26

27 The lessons learnt from the Fukushima Dai ich accident with respect to consequences for emergency response cover many aspects and questions: Are our measures of disaster control suitable in the early phase of an accident and also during a long lasting accident? Is our system of emergency reference levels o.k. or do we have to adjust it? Can the measure staying indoors kept up for a longer time and is it efficient? Planning of evacuation zones and evacuation; What is the role of critical infrastructure in planned evacuation zones? Which averted dose justifies which collateral damage? Organization and operation of emergency stations, even with lack of infrastructure. How does one optimize temporary evacuation and long term relocation during the late phase of an accident? These are not measures of disaster control but of radiological precaution. How to organize the transition from en emergency situation to en existing situation both in time and space? Do we have the necessary tools for long term dose predictions as a basis of optimization? What do we learn from the Japanese decontamination measures? What about the technical and personal infrastructure and the competence for an emergency in Germany or its neighboring countries? Emergency management On te basis of the deliberations in the Crisis Organization of SSK (SSK K) on the occasion of the Fukushima Dai ichi accident we are presently discussing the consequences for the emergency management. The topics are: In the case of Fukushima Dai ichi it worked well, because we had previous exercised. What has not been exercised will not work in an emergency! SSK K was a consultant for BMU, for the public we just reacted on inquiries. How can we actively manage public relations? Fukushima Dai iche was not an emergency in Germany, in particular not a long term emergency. How could we organize our work for a long term accident in Germany or a neighboring country give the fact of a loss of infrastructure? What did not work? Which were the technical and personal deficits we faced in the different crisis organizations? Communication between BMU, SSK K, SSK, RSK, GRS und BfS. What is the proper legal classification, e.g. police law, disaster control law, radiological precautionary law, transport regulations, StrlSchV? How do we organize the transition both in time and space from an emergency situation to an existing situation? 27

28 Lessons learnt from the Japanese emergency management Is the Japanese system of emergency phases sound? Are the Japanese measures compatible with ICRP 103, 109, and 111? Planning of reference levels and derived temporary or provisional limits Optimization needs expertise, demands decisions: not to act is no solution. In the early phase optimization can only be performed on the basis of probabilities with large uncertainties, later one can base it on dose distributions with much more reliability. The problem of after care for the people affected by the emergency. The Fukushima Cohort. It is necessary to measure also where it is radiologically not required. Every measure has to be communicated nationally and internationally in time. This has to be organized in advance and has to be exercised. This will be corner stone of emergency management in the federal system of the European Community. What about the Japanese provisional limits for radioactivity in foodstuffs in the year 2011 and their reduction effective ? Provisional Japanese Limits for Food Category Limits in the year 2011 (based on 5 msv/a) [Bq/kg] Limits since (based on 1 msv/a) [Bq/kg] Drinking water 200 (100*) 10 Milk, milk products Other foods Infant food 50 * For baby food Since the provisional limits in Japan were lowered in order to increase the trust of the people in the food supplied. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Februar

29 Rolf Michel Maximum values of the activity concentrations in leafy vegetables Quelle, BfS Early data until Predictions of the development of the contamination of leafy vegetables (salad, spinach, ) after the fallout Strontium 90 and Plutonium will not cause any relevant contribution to the internal radiation exposure. IRSN, ; 29

30 3,4 % 0,7 % TEPCO, Dezember

31 Bans on marketing as of I 131 in leafy vegetables from Fukushima Japanese parsley (Oenanthe javanica) ostrich fern (Matteuccia struthiopteris) Provisional limits: I 131: 2000 Bq/kg Not detected is plotted as 1 Bq/kg. Giant Butterbur (Petasites japonicus) Bilder: Wikipedia 31

32 Cs 134 in leafy vegetables from Fukushima Japanese parsley (Oenanthe javanica) ostrich fern (Matteuccia struthiopteris) Provisional limits: I 131: 2000 Bq/kg Not detected is plotted as 1 Bq/kg. Giant Butterbur (Petasites japonicus) Bilder: Wikipedia Cs 134 in mushrooms from Fukushima Shiitake (Lentinula edodes) Apricot milk cap (Lactarius volemus) Provisional limits: Cs Cs 134: 500 Bq/kg Bilder: Wikipedia & Not detected is plotted as 1 Bq/kg. 32

33 Cs 134 in fruits from Fukushima Yuzu Frucht Ume (Prunus mume) Loquat (Eriobotrya japonica) Provisional limits: Cs Cs 134: 500 Bq/kg Bilder: Wikipedia Not detected is plotted as 1 Bq/kg. Cs 134 in bamboo sprouts from Fukushima Provisional limits: Cs Cs 134: 500 Bq/kg Bild: Wikipedia Not detected is plotted as 1 Bq/kg. 33

34 Junger Sandaal Vorläufige Grenzwerte: Cs Cs 134: 500 Bq/kg Nicht nachgewiesen ist als 1 Bq/kg dargestellt. Bild: Wikipedia Cs 134 in fishery products from Fukushima Ayu (Plecoglossus altivelis) Arctic Char Provisional limits: Cs Cs 134: 500 Bq/kg Not detected is plotted as 1 Bq/kg. 34

35 Example: foodstuff group meat and eggs in Fukushima Not detected is plotted as 1 Bq/kg 2 Bq/kg. Provisional limit: Cs Cs 134: 500 Bq/kg Limit since : Cs Cs 137: 100 Bq/kg Example: foodstuff group meat and eggs in Fukushima Not detected is plotted as 1 Bq/kg 2 Bq/kg. Provisional limit: Cs Cs 134: 500 Bq/kg Limit since : Cs Cs 137: 100 Bq/kg 35

36 Communication in emergency and existing exposure situations TEPCO, the looser (White smoke! Mistakes in the evaluation of gamma spectra, Xe Isotopes, thermometer in Block 2: now they are jetzt overcautious: attempts not to make any mistake) MEXT (ambient dose rates, deposition, nuclide specific measurements, air and soil) MHLW (water, foodstuffs, total diet) MAFF (seawater, swee twater) the prefectures (I 131 in thyroids, dose reconstruction, personal dose meters, whole body counts) social media??? Who is interpreting the data? One needs communicators! Communication in emergency and existing exposure situations In an emergency, the information of the public of the own county, but also of foreign countries, is essential. Fukushima has clearly demonstrated this. In Germany, there exist national regulations and provisions on the basis of international agreements. See for details e.g. and Also with respect to communication in emergencies we have to learn from the experiences of Fukushima. To this end, we use examples from IAEA, WHO, BfS, GRS, DWD, IRSN, NAZ, CTBTO and the Japanese sources TEPCO, MEXT, MHLW, MAFF and the Prefectures. The essential message is: There has to be an end to withholding information by governments, institution, and superiors! All information and data have to be made available nationally and internationally, in the internet. But, one needs communicators and commenting. It is unclear which may be the role of the Social Media in emergencies of the future? 36

37 A German peculiarity: the German Angst The Federal Republic of Germany under the short term impression of the events at Fukushima Dai ichi has decided to abandon the peaceful use of nuclear energy. For emergency management this will become a great challenge. The question is: How to maintain competence and capacity to act for emergency management after phasing out of nuclear energy? The reactions of the public on the accident in Fukushima in Germany were neurotic: affected by German Angst. How will we deal with it in the future? During several decades, the public perception of radioactivity and radiation was affected by politics with fear. In order of stay rationale in an emergency, the politics of fear must come to an end. The politics of fear must change to a policy of enlightenment. This is not only essential for emergency management, but also with regard to a rational handling of the problem of radioactive waste. A German peculiarity: the German Angst Germany is particular, though one finds similar reactions in singular groups of the populations in all countries. Information and education regarding the facts of radioactivity and radiation as well as regarding emergency preparedness need massive promotion. Countries which face frequently natural catastrophees have much better emergency preparedness than the relatively safe Germany. Aside of information and education it is absolutely necessary to exercise measures of desaster control at all levels of the society. Efficient emergenc management needs very much money!! My discussion of the consequences of the Fukushima accident rests mainly on negative examples from Japan. This should not be understood as scolding. The task is to not repeat erros of the past. It is highly questionable whether we would have managed as well as the Japanes did. 37

38 Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. (Niels Bohr) The End Download under hannover.de/michel 38