Not so fast we need more data. Neill Adhikari Critical Care Medicine Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre and University of Toronto 7 November 2018
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1 Not so fast we need more data Neill Adhikari Critical Care Medicine Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre and University of Toronto 7 November 2018
2 Disclosures I am the co-pi of a RCT of high-dose vitamin C for sepsis (NCT )
3 Metabolic resuscitation package for sepsis N=94 aor mort 0.13 ( ) RR mort 0.21 ( ) RR surv 1.54 ( ) NNT 3 (2-8)
4 Reasons to be excited by this approach
5 Multi-mechanism rationale for benefit Thiamine Vitamin C Steroids Antioxidant Crit Care 2018;22:283
6 Reasons to be excited by this approach Multiple potential mechanisms for benefit Feasible to implement Inexpensive Uses existing medications Seems safe Investigator-initiated Potential global relevance
7 Is this cocktail a parachute for sepsis?
8 BMJ 2003;327:
9 Parachutes in medicine Insulin for diabetes Blood transfusion for hemorrhagic shock Closed reduction and splinting for displaced long bone fractures Cricothyrotomy for upper airway obstruction Suturing for hemorrhage Ether for anesthesia BMJ 2007;334:349-51
10 Treatment effect NNT ~1.5 Ann Int Med 1964;60:759-76
11 Most of our interventions are not parachutes (some may be cement boots)
12 Observational data alone our decision-making framework changes for harm Lancet 1983;1(8336):1270
13 Observational data vs. RCTs ICP monitor good ICP monitor neutral J Neurotrauma 2013;30:
14 Quasi-RCT data vs. RCTs Daily RRT good Intensive RRT neutral
15 Parachutes in sepsis therapy?
16 Sepsis therapies to date: >100 trials, zero new treatments Trend Mol Med 2014;20:195
17 Multiple statistically negative trials lead to sceptical priors JAMA, doi: /jama
18 Multiple statistically negative trials lead to sceptical priors typical scepticism of clinician reading new sepsis trial? JAMA, doi: /jama
19 Even if this were a trial, we would want additional data 10% (1-30%) chance: large RCT refutes initial RCT with very large effect 90% chance: very large effects become smaller
20 Unpacking the components
21 Vitamin C: 10 trials, 1520 patients not conclusive of benefit n=52 Langlois et al. in press
22 Vitamin C: potential downsides Increased urinary oxalate excretions Stones AKI? Risk of hemolysis with G6PD deficiency Population-dependent baseline risk Factitious hyperglycemia using POC devices
23 Steroids: 42 trials, patients still not conclusive of benefit
24 Scientific interest is high Vitamin C AND sepsis
25 Public interest is high
26 Ongoing trials (incomplete list) Country Intervention N Status VICTAS (J Sevransky) USA Vit C + HC + B Enrolling HYVCTTSSS (Zhujiang Hospital) China Vit C + HC + B1 140 Enrolling NCT (D Shapiro) USA Vit C + B1 120 Enrolling ACTS (M Donnino) USA Vit C + HC + B1 200 Enrolling OANGES (AV Vassallo) USA Vit C + HC + B1 140 Enrolling NCT (S Stefanovic) Slovenia Vit C + HC + B1 30 Enrolling NCT (U Minnesota) USA Vit C 140 Enrolling VITAMINS (R Bellomo) Australia Vit C 126 Enrolling CORVICTES (SD Mentzelopoulos) Greece Vit C + HC 400 Enrolling NCT (BJ Haines) USA Vit C + B1 60 Enrolling HYVITS (A Mohamed) Qatar Vit C + HC + B1 212 Enrolling 29
27 Summary Community is enthusiastic about vitamin C for sepsis +/- thiamine and steroids Be wary of dramatic treatment effects in observational studies and in trials prior experience explains scepticism regarding any new treatments harms underestimated by current evidence We should enroll patients in ongoing trials! Widespread adoption in usual practice will hinder acquisition of new knowledge
28 Thank you
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