ANNUAL REPORT 2017 UNITED STATES FOOD SOYBEAN QUALITY. The U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) U.S. Soy Outlook Conferences November, 2017

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1 UNITED STATES FOOD SOYBEAN QUALITY ANNUAL REPORT 2017 PREPARED FOR: The U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) U.S. Soy Outlook Conferences November, 2017 Dr. Jill Miller-Garvin and Dr. Seth L. Naeve

2 Table of Contents 2017 Quality Report... 1 Weather figure References... 8 Figure 1: U.S. Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress... 9 Figure 2: U.S. Soybean, Corn, Wheat Planted Hectares Table 1: Production Data for the United States, 2017 Crop Table 2: Quality Survey Protein & Oil Data by State and Region Table 3: Quality Survey Protein & Oil Data by Seed Size and Region Table 4: Quality Survey Carbohydrate Data by Seed Size and Region Table 5: Quality Survey Amino Acid Data by Seed Size and Region Contact Information

3 SUMMARY The US Soy Family, which includes the American Soybean Association, United Soybean Board, and US Soybean Export Council, has supported a survey of the quality of the US commodity soybean crop since That survey is intended to provide new crop quality data to aid international customers with their purchasing decisions. The Food Soybean Survey was first conducted in 2007, and is intended to assist international buyers, as well as to provide food manufacturers valuable information about the quality of these specialty soybeans. Due to both the wide range of food bean types (tofu, natto, edamame, etc.) and the range of varieties grown for each type across different geographic regions of the US, it is difficult to provide generalized conclusions regarding the 2017 United States food soybean crop as a whole. This report provides state by state food soybean quality information (protein and oil), regional quality averages by seed size, and quality trends for the entire US food soybean crop. The commodity soybean crop information is provided as a guide for better understanding the regional environmental influences affecting both commodity and food soybean crops ACREAGE, YIELDS, AND TOTAL PRODUCTION According to the October 2017 United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) Crop Production report, the US is expected to produce another record soybean crop at MMT. If realized, this will be a 3% increase over the record 2016 crop of MMT. The increased production is the result of an extremely large area planted to soybeans this year (Table 1). Reduced expected profits coupled with high production costs for corn convinced US farmers to convert some corn acres to soybean acres. This resulted in an expected 8% increase in harvested area in 2017 relative to However, yields are expected to be 5% lower than in Farmers will produce an average soybean yield of about 3.3 MT per Ha. Together the three largest soybean producing states, Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota, increased harvested acres by about 6%, decreased yields by about 7%, and produced about 1% fewer tons of soybeans in 2017 compared with Across the ten largest soybeanproducing states, increased area outweighed yield declines to produce a net increase in production compared with last year. The largest increases in harvested acres occurred in Kansas and North Dakota. Kansas increased harvested area by 441,000 ha and North Dakota increased area by 449,000 ha. States with the largest increases in total production tended to be Midsouth states that had increased area devoted to soybeans coupled with increased yields over Arkansas increased total production by 893,000 MT. Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana increased production by 432,000, 376,000, 263,000, and 252,000 MT, respectively. Nearby, the Western Corn Belt states of Kansas and Missouri increased total production by 452,000 and 507,000, respectively, due to increases in area. QUALITY OF THE 2017 US FOOD SOYBEAN CROP Participating companies provided a total of 141 samples by November 4, Samples were analyzed for protein and oil concentration by near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) using a Perten DA7250 diode array instrument (Huddinge, Sweden) equipped with calibration equations developed at the University of Minnesota. The 141 whole soybean samples were ground before scanning on the NIR machine. Additionally, we determined average seed size (grams per 100 seeds) for each sample. The // 1

4 food soybean samples are grouped using the same geographical categories as in the commodity soybean quality report. In 2017, we received food soybean samples from regions categorized as Western Corn Belt (WCB), Eastern Corn Belt (ECB), and Midsouth (MDS). Average protein values for the food bean samples by growing region (Table 2) indicate that samples received from the MDS region (AR) had higher protein than samples from the ECB region (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin) and from the WCB region (Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota); MDS regional protein average was 38.3, ECB s was 35.8, and WCB s was When we examined the protein concentration data using both regional and seed size categories to group the data (Table 3), the WCB-ECB protein differences were mixed. Protein was lower in the large-seeded WCB samples (35.5) compared to the large-seeded ECB samples (36.4). This lower WCB protein vs. ECB protein trend within the same seed size category was reversed for the average-seeded samples, such that average-seeded WCB protein of 36.0 was higher than the average-seeded ECB protein of The ranges in protein values in WCB and ECB samples were quite different, particularly for the average-seeded samples (ECB protein range 8.8 vs. WCB range of 5.0); this is very likely due to the considerable sample size differences (ECB 81 vs. WCB 15). We hope that the sample numbers will increase overall in our final report, and that the distribution of samples across regions will improve. Surprisingly in 2017 we found that the two small-seeded samples in the ECB, with protein of 36.5, were higher or very similar in protein to the average- and large-seeded samples from that region, at 35.6 and 36.5, respectively. Overall, oil concentrations in the MDS (18.4) were the same as those on the ECB (18.4) and slightly higher than those in the WCB (18.2); this is a fairly typical result for soybeans grown in these regions (Table 2). When the data were grouped by seed size category and region (Table 3), the average-seeded WCB samples were lower in oil (18.2) than the average-seeded ECB samples (18.4), and the same was true for the large-seeded samples (WCB 18.2 < ECB 18.3), although again the sample numbers within the groups were not well-balanced. The MDS average-seeded samples were higher in oil at 19.2 than both the WCB and ECB s average-seeded samples. Within the WCB and ECB regions, oil concentrations were similar between the average- and large-seeded samples. Within the ECB, small-seeded samples had the lowest average oil concentration relative to the other two seed size categories, but in the WCB the small-seeded samples were higher in oil than both the average- and large-seeded samples. Ranges for oil values for all samples were smaller than ranges for protein. SOLUBLE SUGARS Typically we find that more northerly, cooler WCB region samples have higher sucrose concentrations than samples from the more southerly ECB and MDS regions; this held true in 2017 when we compared sucrose values in similarly-sized samples between those regions, eg, average WCB vs. average ECB. For small-, average-, and large-seeded samples, the WCB samples were higher in sucrose compared to the ECB and MDS samples as expected. Samples from the most southerly region did have the lowest sucrose concentrations (MDS: small 5.85 and average 4.17). Sucrose concentrations overall were somewhat higher in 2017 than in 2016, likely because oil concentrations were slightly reduced. While soybeans with average or large size seeds can be suitable for making natto, soybeans with lower sucrose and higher stachyose concentrations are considered desirable for making natto since they result in a more gradual fermentation process, and high stachyose is generally associated with small soybeans (Wei and // 2

5 Chang, 2004). regarding stachyose, the small-seeded samples did contain more stachyose than the averageand large-seeded samples within each region. We hope to receive more small-seeded samples to do a more comprehensive comparison of small-seeded soybeans grown in the U.S. for our final 2017 report. 2017, there was not much variation in the sum of the 5 limiting essential amino acids. We found this to be the case in the 2017 US commodity soybean quality survey results as well. The samples from the MDS in this report, however, did have the highest protein and the lowest concentration of the five limiting essential amino acids. AMINO ACIDS Amino acids are the building block organic compounds linked in various combinations to form unique proteins. In humans, dietary proteins are critical for a number of vital functions; these needs are fulfilled by the essential and non-essential amino acids in dietary proteins. Soy in human nutrition is often part of a diet comprised of other protein sources. When soy was studied along with other foods (rice, corn flour, milk solids), its nutritive value was high, close to that of milk and similar to that for high quality animal protein (Young and Scrimshaw, 1979). Additionally, Young and Scrimshaw concluded in their review of studies evaluating the use of soybean in human diets, When well-processed soy products serve as the major or sole source of the protein intake, their protein value approaches or equals that of foods of animal origin, and they are fully capable of meeting the long term essential amino acid and protein needs of children and adults. In soybeans, those with lower crude protein have a higher proportion of the five most critical essential amino acids (lysine, cysteine, methionine, threonine, and tryptophan), (Thakur and Hurburgh, 2007; Medic et al., 2014; Naeve unpublished data). Table 5 contains amino acid data from the 2017 food soybean samples, grouped by seed size and growing region. Across regions, the trend for the 2017 samples was that lower protein samples generally had higher concentrations of the five limiting essential amino acids, but since the range in protein values across regions was small in U.S. COMMODITY SOYBEAN SURVEY Overall, when compared with the good quality 2016 crop, protein concentrations noted in the 2017 crop were somewhat disappointing. Protein was 0.5 of a point lower than that of the 2016 crop, 0.6 of a point lower than the previous ten-year average, and 1.1 points lower than the long-term historical average. On the other hand, oil concentrations were nearly equal to 2016 levels and were point higher than the historical averages. Although lower overall, protein concentrations were unusually consistent across the US in Among the three primary production regions (WCB, ECB, and MDS), regional averages varied by only 0.5 percentage point. There tended to be more variation between states than between regions; this indicates that localized weather events were more important for affecting protein levels in mature soybean seed than the larger environmental gradients caused by latitude, soil type, and historical rainfall patterns. Among these same three production regions, oil concentration varied by 0.4 point. As with protein, oil concentrations varied more between states than between regions. In most years, soybeans produced in the WCB states have protein levels that are at least 0.5 point lower than the US average and are often nearly one point lower than those from the ECB. This year, these two regions had similar protein concentrations (34.0 and 33.9%, respectively). In 2017, North Dakota, Iowa, and Missouri had the lowest protein of the western states. Minnesota, // 3

6 South Dakota, and Nebraska soybeans had higher protein in 2017 than 2016, with South Dakota increasing protein by nearly one percentage point. The largest numerical decreases in protein, year-overyear, occurred in the ECB states of Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois. Protein levels in these states decreased by about one percentage point relative to last year. Wisconsin-grown soybeans produced protein levels similar to those grown in Regional oil concentrations were similar in 2017 when compared with All major regions had oil concentrations within 0.3 of a point of last year s values. Midsouth oil concentrations averaged 19.5% and were slightly higher than the average values from the ECB (19.1%) and the WCB (19.1%). The north-south gradient appears stronger for oil in 2017 than in most years. More northerly states tended to have lower oil concentrations. We have noted over years of conducting this survey that rainfall patterns can have a large effect on protein and oil. However, because the final seed quality is dependent on the sum of weather events throughout the growing season, it is difficult to predict seed protein and oil concentrations. Moreover, overall yield levels can impact seed quality as well. Excess rainfall early in the growing season coupled with drought or neardrought conditions during seed fill can lead to reduced protein concentrations. This phenomenon was evident in southern Iowa in Although spring rains were not excessive, a strong drought lingered through much of the later growing season. Timing and severity of the excess rainfall and drought conditions greatly affect the end protein concentrations. For instance, ECB states of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio sustained above-average rainfall after planting and a mid-season drought that reduced protein levels; however, the drought was not severe enough to drastically reduce protein. The largest single factor affecting soybean protein appears to be timely rains during the seed-filling period. Regions with abundant rainfall during August appeared to produce seed with above trend-line protein concentrations for their area. The clear north to south gradient in oil in 2017 is likely due to the extreme low temperatures noted across much of the Corn Belt for several weeks during seed filling. Oil deposition in the seed is directly related to ambient temperatures, and it appears that cool temperatures limited oil throughout the upper Midwest. Increased oil did balance losses in protein in many areas, such as in Iowa. In 2017, amino acid results varied very little by state and region. Average lysine (expressed as a percent of the 18 primary amino acids) was the same in every region. Regional differences in the sum of the five most limiting amino acids (also known as CAAV), cysteine, lysine, methionine, threonine, and tryptophan, were very small, with WCB and SE at 15.2, ECB and MDS at 15.1, and EC at The US average CAAV was 15.1 this year, 0.6 higher than last year s US average. The lower average protein in the US in 2017 likely led to higher average CAAV in the US. Moreover, the range in protein in the US in 2017 was smaller than last year, likely leading to a smaller CAAV range. WEATHER AND CROP SUMMARY The largest crop weather stories for 2017 revolved around three main themes. The first was a severe drought that affected ND and SD for the entire season. This drought affected all western states from NE and KS through IA, IL, IN, and MO from mid- to late-summer. The second weather anomaly in 2017 was extreme cool conditions in early August that continued through late August and early September. Lastly, although weather data aggregated across regions or time gives // 4

7 the appearance of a relatively normal summer, it was actually a season of extremes. For instance, more than 1,500 local record low and record high temperatures were broken from June through August in the Midwest. Moreover, extreme rain events were common even with drought conditions occurring between rain events or in nearby regions. More than 1,200 daily rainfall records were broken in the Midwest in much drier than average (Weather Figure 1). By late October, warm/hot and dry weather accelerated harvest in the central U.S., allowing XX% of the 2017 harvest to be completed. Planting: Precipitation in mid-april was above normal across much of the U.S.; temperatures were above normal as well. By mid-may, continued average to above average temperatures allowed near-normal planting progress. Many important soybean-growing states (IL, IN, OH, and NE) received above average precipitation (Weather Figure 1). By early June, more than 80% of the U.S. crop was planted due to very favorable conditions in the central Corn Belt region. While planting progress was good, early season growth and development was hindered and the overall USDA crop ratings were historically low starting in May. Mid-season: The Midsouth experienced below normal temperatures in June, while temperatures in most of the ECB and WCB were average or slightly above average. Rainfall in June was above normal in many soybeangrowing regions, particularly in the MDS. In July, parts of the the WCB were dry and warm while parts of the ECB (especially IL, IN, and OH) much wetter than average. Illinois, IN, and OH were drier than normal in August, while states to their west and south were wetter than average; except in ND and SD where drought conditions continued. August was cooler than normal across most of the central and northeastern U.S., especially in NE, IA, and IL (Weather Figure 1). Harvest: September brought above average temperatures to the Corn Belt region but rainfall patterns split such that some WCB states (ND, SD, and MN) were wetter than normal, but all ECB states were // 5

8 WEATHER FIGURE 1 MAY 2017 STATEWIDE PRECIPITATION RANKS Period Record Driest (1) Much Below Average Below Average Near Average 61 Above Average AUGUST 2017 Much Above Average Record Wettest (123) SEPTEMBER // 6

9 WEATHER FIGURE 1, continued JULY 2017 STATEWIDE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RANKS Period Record Coldest (1) Much Below Average Below Average Near Average 117 Above Average AUGUST 2017 Much Above Average Record Warmest (123) SEPTEMBER // 7

10 REFERENCES Federal Grain Inspection Service Test Weight. In Grain Inspection Handbook II (Chapter 10). Washington DC: USDA-GIPSA-FGIS. Medic, J., C. Atkinson, and C.R. Hurburgh Jr Current knowledge in soybean composition. J. Am. Oil Chem. Soc. 91(3): Midwest Climate Watch Available at: <mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm> National Agricultural Statistics Service: NASS Available at: <nass.usda.gov> Thakur, M., and C.R. Hurburgh Quality of U.S. soybean meal compared to the quality of soybean meal from other origins. J. Am. Oil Chem. Soc. 84: Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin Jointly prepared by the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Available at: <usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/weekly/wwcb/> Wei, Q. and S.K.C. Chang Characteristics of fermented natto products as affected by soybean cultivars. Journal of Food Processing Preservation 28: Young, V.R. and N.S. Scrimshaw Soybean Protein in Human Nutrition: An Overview. J. Am. Oil Chem. Soc. 56: // 8

11 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31 QUALITY REPORT 2017 U.S. SOYBEAN PLANTING AND HARVEST PROGRESS % of US Crop Planted or Harvested by date 4/25 5/25/9 5/16 5/235/30 6/6 6/136/20 6/27 7/48/22 8/29 9/59/12 9/19 9/2610/ Planting Progress '12 - '16 Average 2017 Harvest Progress '12 - '16 Average Day of the Year // 9 source: USDA NASS FIGURE 1

12 QUALITY REPORT 2017 Soybean, Corn, and Wheat in the U.S. (planted ha) // 10 FIGURE Soybean Corn Wheat Planted area (ha)

13 Table 1. Soybean production data for the United States, 2017 crop REGION Western Corn Belt (WCB) Eastern Corn Belt (ECB) Midsouth (MDS) Southeast (SE) East Coast (EC) STATE YIELD (MT ha -1 ) AREA HARVESTED (1000 ha) Source: United States Department of Agriculture, NASS 2017 Crop Production Report (October 2017) PRODUCTION (M MT) Iowa 3.8 4, Kansas 2.8 2, Minnesota 3.1 3, Missouri 3.3 2, Nebraska 3.8 2, North Dakota 2.4 2, South Dakota 3.0 2, Western Corn Belt , % Illinois 3.8 4, Indiana 3.7 2, Michigan Ohio 3.5 2, Wisconsin Eastern Corn Belt , Arkansas 3.4 1, Kentucky Louisiana Mississippi Oklahoma Tennessee % Texas Midsouth 3.1 4, Alabama % Georgia North Carolina South Carolina Southeast 2.3 1, Delaware Maryland New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Virginia East Coast U.S , U.S , % 2.4% // 11

14 Table 2. USSEC 2017 Food Soybean Quality Survey Protein and Oil Data by State and Region STATE (# OF SAMPLES) REGION PROTEIN * (%) PROTEIN RANGE REGIONAL PROTEIN AVERAGE OIL * (%) OIL RANGE REGIONAL OIL AVERAGE Iowa (1) WCB Minnesota (12) WCB Nebraska (1) WCB North Dakota (11) WCB South Dakota (2) WCB Illinois (6) ECB Indiana (1) ECB Michigan (22) ECB Ohio (26) ECB Wisconsin (56) ECB Arkansas (3) MDS Data as of November 4, 2017 WCB: Western Corn Belt; ECB: Eastern Corn Belt (see Table 1 for complete list of states included in these regions) * 13% moisture basis // 12

15 Table 3. USSEC 2017 Food Soybean Quality Survey Protein and Oil by Seed Size and Region REGION SEED SIZE NUMBER SAMPLES SEED SIZE (G/100 SEEDS) PROTEIN * (%) PROTEIN RANGE OIL * (%) OIL RANGE Small WCB Average Large Small ECB Average Large MDS Small Average Data as of November 4, 2017 Small seed: 13.0 g/100 seeds; Average: g/100 seeds; Large: >21 g/100 seeds (unofficial categories) WCB: Western Corn Belt (Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota); ECB: Eastern Corn Belt (Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin); MDS: Midsouth (Arkansas) * 13% moisture basis // 13

16 Table 4. USSEC 2017 Food Soybean Quality Survey Carbohydrate Data by Seed Size AND Region REGION SEED SIZE NUMBER SAMPLES SEED SIZE (G/100 SEEDS) SUCROSE (% DM BASIS) RAFFINOSE (% DM BASIS) STACHYOSE (% DM BASIS) Small WCB Average Large Small ECB Average Large MDS Small Average Data as of November 4, 2017 Small seed: 13.0 g/100 seeds; Average: g/100 seeds; Large: >21 g/100 seeds (unofficial categories) WCB: Western Corn Belt (Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota); ECB: Eastern Corn Belt (Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin); MDS: Midsouth (Arkansas) // 14

17 Table 5. USSEC 2017 Food Soybean Quality Survey Amino Acid (AA) Data by Seed Size AND Region REGION SEED SIZE NUMBER SAMPLES SEED SIZE AVERAGE (G/100 SEEDS) PROTEIN * (%) LYSINE (% OF 18AAS) FIVE LIMITING ESSENTIAL AMINO ACIDS (% OF 18AAS) Small WCB Average Large Small ECB Average Large MDS Small Average Data as of November 4, 2017 Small seed: 13.0 g/100 seeds; Average: g/100 seeds; Large: >21 g/100 seeds (unofficial categories) WCB: Western Corn Belt (Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota); ECB: Eastern Corn Belt (Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin); MDS: Midsouth (Arkansas) * 13% moisture basis Five limiting essential amino acids: cysteine, lysine, methionine, threonine, and tryptophan // 15

18 Contact Information DR. SETH L. NAEVE Soybean Extension Agronomist DR. JILL MILLER-GARVIN Researcher Department of Agronomy & Plant Genetics 411 Borlaug Hall 1991 Upper Buford Circle St. Paul, MN USSOY.ORG U.S. Soybean Export Council Swingley Ridge Road Chesterfield, MO Tel Fax Funding provided by United States Soybean Export Council (USSEC) // 16