Lecture 5: Scientific Method, Wicked Problems. Joey Huddleston (for Benjamin Graham)
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1 Lecture 5: Scientific Method, Wicked Problems Joey Huddleston (for Benjamin Graham)
2 Some Housekeeping For some of you, today is the first day of sections VKC 252, 12pm and 1pm We re going over empirical questions We re discussing the homework Clickers Get them registered already
3 Reading Quiz According to the listening and the article, what is the best predictor of terrorist attacks? a) Separatist movement involvement. b) Religion. c) Psychological state. d) Secular beliefs. IR 213: Introduction Benjamin Graham
4 Reading Quiz How does Professor Pape define terrorism in the video? a) The use of terror as a government policy. b) The willful destruction of public property. c) The killing of innocents for a political cause. d) Any act that causes the death or destruction of state officials or property. IR 213: Introduction Benjamin Graham
5 Reading Quiz According to the video, which organization does not currently have a clear definition of terrorism? a) The US government b) The UN c) The University of Chicago d) Amnesty International IR 213: Introduction Benjamin Graham
6 An Outline for Today Continuing with the scientific method How the scientific method helps us tackle wicked problems Terrorism as a case study
7 The Terrorism Pieces What do you think? Have you ever heard this angle before?
8 Why we test repeatedly
9 Gather Data: The Experiment Ideal data is from controlled experiment Control and treatment groups Random assignment Pre-test and post-test measurement Compare DV With great control, you can more easily identify causal relationships Use experimental design as target
10 Gather Data: The Survey Ask people for information Demographics Opinion Life events Economic information Randomly sample chosen population Sometimes, overrepresent certain groups Datapoints have to be simplified
11 Gather Data: Data from Nature Lots of processes in the social world generate data Anything with money Government data News media Collect and aggregate, use statistical tools to test relationships
12 Gather Data: Observe and Record Qualitative data gathering In depth knowledge of cases You are the origin of the data Very good for developing theories about specific workings of known phenomena Ethical issues Case selection is key Why?
13 Develop General Theories Because we seek general theories. Realism and constructivism When would states intervene in other states conflicts?
14 Develop General Theories General theories inform all of the literature What is the literature? Specifics of our hypotheses, tests, and results are what sharpen our general theories Chalk another one up Find new conditions
15 Develop General Theories Morgan s Sphinx Moth
16 Exploratory and Deductive Studies
17 Wicked Problems: Terrorism
18 Terrorism: Observations Common observations you hear about terrorism Easy to spot one pattern But is it causal?
19 Terrorism: Interesting Questions Descriptive questions Why questions
20 Terrorism: Formulate Hypotheses Look for clues If we take media story, we might say H1: Religious extremism causes terrorism.
21 Definitions For these steps, how you define is very important Definitions Clear and specific Avoid open to interpretation Clear about use and purpose May vary between theory and test Link is clear and well defended
22 Testable Predictions General concepts yield measureable variables What does Pape use to measure terrorism? What about religious extremism?
23 Terrorism: Test Predictions Hypothesis wrong. Reject and alter. H2: Occupation causes terrorism. Operationalize. Try it with occupation.
24 Terrorism: General Theories What kind of general theory could this finding support? Doesn t have to be IR What general theory does this finding fail to support? What null hypothesis does this fail to reject?
25 Terrorism: Summing Up First observations are biased So questions and hypotheses are biased But with clear definitions and tests, we can move away from biased idea and towards knowing true relationship General theories are improved Future observations are improved
26 Cyclical
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