Political Science 30: Political Inquiry Section 1

Transcription

1 Political Science 30: Political Inquiry Section 1 Taylor Carlson tncarlson@ucsd.edu January 10, 2019 Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

2 Learning Outcomes By the end of section today, you should: Understand key concepts from lecture: Independent Variable Dependent Variable Confounding Variable Be able to evaluate whether hypotheses meet the criteria to be good hypotheses and write your own Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

3 Plan for the Day Introduce ourselves Go over section participation expectations Answer questions from lecture this week Dig in! Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

4 A Little About Me Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

5 A Little About Me 5th year in the program, PhD candidate, professor at WUSTL in the fall Focus Areas: American Politics and Methodology Dissertation: How does information get distorted as it diffuses from the media to the masses? How does this distorted information impact political behavior? Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

6 A Little About Me 5th year in the program, PhD candidate, professor at WUSTL in the fall Focus Areas: American Politics and Methodology Dissertation: How does information get distorted as it diffuses from the media to the masses? How does this distorted information impact political behavior? I love teaching! Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

7 A Little About Me 5th year in the program, PhD candidate, professor at WUSTL in the fall Focus Areas: American Politics and Methodology Dissertation: How does information get distorted as it diffuses from the media to the masses? How does this distorted information impact political behavior? I love teaching! Before UCSD Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

8 A Little About Me 5th year in the program, PhD candidate, professor at WUSTL in the fall Focus Areas: American Politics and Methodology Dissertation: How does information get distorted as it diffuses from the media to the masses? How does this distorted information impact political behavior? I love teaching! Before UCSD Home: Minnesota Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

9 A Little About Me 5th year in the program, PhD candidate, professor at WUSTL in the fall Focus Areas: American Politics and Methodology Dissertation: How does information get distorted as it diffuses from the media to the masses? How does this distorted information impact political behavior? I love teaching! Before UCSD Home: Minnesota (Go Vikings!) Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

10 A Little About Me 5th year in the program, PhD candidate, professor at WUSTL in the fall Focus Areas: American Politics and Methodology Dissertation: How does information get distorted as it diffuses from the media to the masses? How does this distorted information impact political behavior? I love teaching! Before UCSD Home: Minnesota (Go Vikings!) College: College of William & Mary in Virginia Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

11 A Little About Me 5th year in the program, PhD candidate, professor at WUSTL in the fall Focus Areas: American Politics and Methodology Dissertation: How does information get distorted as it diffuses from the media to the masses? How does this distorted information impact political behavior? I love teaching! Before UCSD Home: Minnesota (Go Vikings!) College: College of William & Mary in Virginia Contact Information: tncarlson@ucsd.edu Office Hours: Thursdays 9am-11am in SSB 341, or by appointment Discussion Section slides and materials can be found at Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

12 Getting to Know You: Please take out a piece of paper and write the following: Name (and preferred name you go by) Fun fact about yourself 1 thing you are looking forward to in this class 1 thing you are nervous about in this class 1 thing that I can do to be helpful to you and your learning Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

13 Discussion Section Format and Expectations Section participation is required and accounts for 10% of your course grade Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

14 Discussion Section Format and Expectations Section participation is required and accounts for 10% of your course grade Attendance taken every week with check ins that you ll turn in (bring paper!) Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

15 Discussion Section Format and Expectations Section participation is required and accounts for 10% of your course grade Attendance taken every week with check ins that you ll turn in (bring paper!) Review concepts from lecture, give additional examples, practice problems, help learning Stata Large group (whole class) discussions Small group discussions with the people around you Small group activities Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

16 General Advice for POLI 30 Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

17 General Advice for POLI 30 Don t give up! Inspiration: Minneapolis Miracle: Keenum to Diggs; Bruno Mars: Don t Give Up; Michael Scott Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

18 General Advice for POLI 30 Don t give up! Inspiration: Minneapolis Miracle: Keenum to Diggs; Bruno Mars: Don t Give Up; Michael Scott Come to lecture very interactive, take notes on the discussions and examples Come to section Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

19 General Advice for POLI 30 Don t give up! Inspiration: Minneapolis Miracle: Keenum to Diggs; Bruno Mars: Don t Give Up; Michael Scott Come to lecture very interactive, take notes on the discussions and examples Come to section Practice! Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

20 General Advice for POLI 30 Don t give up! Inspiration: Minneapolis Miracle: Keenum to Diggs; Bruno Mars: Don t Give Up; Michael Scott Come to lecture very interactive, take notes on the discussions and examples Come to section Practice! Odd problems in the textbook (answers in the back) Examples from section and lecture Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

21 General Advice for POLI 30 Don t give up! Inspiration: Minneapolis Miracle: Keenum to Diggs; Bruno Mars: Don t Give Up; Michael Scott Come to lecture very interactive, take notes on the discussions and examples Come to section Practice! Odd problems in the textbook (answers in the back) Examples from section and lecture Come to office hours sooner rather than later There are office hours every day of the week you can go to any TA or Prof. Desposato Post on the discussion forum! Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

22 Questions?? What questions do you have from lecture this week? Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

23 Hypothesis Recap Hypothesis: A testable statement about the empirical relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

24 Hypothesis Recap Hypothesis: A testable statement about the empirical relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable (our guesses about how two things are related) Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

25 Hypothesis Recap Hypothesis: A testable statement about the empirical relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable (our guesses about how two things are related) Independent Variable Dependent Variable Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

26 Hypothesis Recap Hypothesis: A testable statement about the empirical relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable (our guesses about how two things are related) Independent Variable Dependent Variable Good Hypothesis Checklist: Falsifiable Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

27 Hypothesis Recap Hypothesis: A testable statement about the empirical relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable (our guesses about how two things are related) Independent Variable Dependent Variable Good Hypothesis Checklist: Falsifiable (can be proven wrong) Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

28 Hypothesis Recap Hypothesis: A testable statement about the empirical relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable (our guesses about how two things are related) Independent Variable Dependent Variable Good Hypothesis Checklist: Falsifiable (can be proven wrong) Ties variance in cause to variance in effect Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

29 Hypothesis Recap Hypothesis: A testable statement about the empirical relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable (our guesses about how two things are related) Independent Variable Dependent Variable Good Hypothesis Checklist: Falsifiable (can be proven wrong) Ties variance in cause to variance in effect General Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

30 Hypothesis Practice: Together The lower the overall level of crime, the more likely a country will be democratic. Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

31 Hypothesis Practice: Together The lower the overall level of crime, the more likely a country will be democratic. What is the IV? What is the DV? Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

32 Hypothesis Practice: Together The lower the overall level of crime, the more likely a country will be democratic. What is the IV? What is the DV? Is it falsifiable? Does it tie variance in cause to variance in effect? Is it general? Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

33 Hypothesis Practice: Together The lower the overall level of crime, the more likely a country will be democratic. What is the IV? What is the DV? Is it falsifiable? Does it tie variance in cause to variance in effect? Is it general? How would you make it better? Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

34 Hypothesis Practice: In Groups Hypothesis: Age and voter turnout are related What is the IV? What is the DV? Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

35 Hypothesis Practice: In Groups Hypothesis: Age and voter turnout are related What is the IV? What is the DV? Is it falsifiable? Does it tie variance in cause to variance in effect? Is it general? Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

36 Hypothesis Practice: In Groups Hypothesis: Age and voter turnout are related What is the IV? What is the DV? Is it falsifiable? Does it tie variance in cause to variance in effect? Is it general? How would you make it better? Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

37 Questions? What questions do you have? Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

38 Causality We want to make causal claims... Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

39 Causality We want to make causal claims... But it s hard Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

40 Confounds and Spurious Relationships Three criteria for a confound Causes changes in the DV Is correlated with the IV Is causally prior to the IV Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

41 Confounds and Spurious Relationships Three criteria for a confound Causes changes in the DV Is correlated with the IV Is causally prior to the IV Examples of Confounds: Do ice cream sales cause shark attacks? Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

42 Confounds and Spurious Relationships Three criteria for a confound Causes changes in the DV Is correlated with the IV Is causally prior to the IV Examples of Confounds: Do ice cream sales cause shark attacks? IV: Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

43 Confounds and Spurious Relationships Three criteria for a confound Causes changes in the DV Is correlated with the IV Is causally prior to the IV Examples of Confounds: Do ice cream sales cause shark attacks? IV: Ice cream sales Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

44 Confounds and Spurious Relationships Three criteria for a confound Causes changes in the DV Is correlated with the IV Is causally prior to the IV Examples of Confounds: Do ice cream sales cause shark attacks? IV: Ice cream sales DV: Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

45 Confounds and Spurious Relationships Three criteria for a confound Causes changes in the DV Is correlated with the IV Is causally prior to the IV Examples of Confounds: Do ice cream sales cause shark attacks? IV: Ice cream sales DV: Shark attacks Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

46 Confounds and Spurious Relationships Three criteria for a confound Causes changes in the DV Is correlated with the IV Is causally prior to the IV Examples of Confounds: Do ice cream sales cause shark attacks? IV: Ice cream sales DV: Shark attacks Confound? Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

47 Confounds and Spurious Relationships Three criteria for a confound Causes changes in the DV Is correlated with the IV Is causally prior to the IV Examples of Confounds: Do ice cream sales cause shark attacks? IV: Ice cream sales DV: Shark attacks Confound? Weather! Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

48 Confounds and Spurious Relationships Three criteria for a confound Causes changes in the DV Is correlated with the IV Is causally prior to the IV Examples of Confounds: Do ice cream sales cause shark attacks? IV: Ice cream sales DV: Shark attacks Confound? Weather! Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

49 Confounds and Spurious Relationships Practice exercises available at pages.ucsd.edu/~tfeenstr/ Maybe a quiz?? Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16

50 Theories Hypotheses Codebooks? Once you have your hypothesis, you need to find some data Identify your IV and DV Read the dataset s codebook to find a variable that is as close to your IV and DV as possible Carlson POLI 30-Section 1 January 10, / 16