Optimizing Population Screening for Infectious Diseases
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1 Optimizing Population Screening for Infectious Diseases Harwin de Vries MSc., Prof. Albert Wagelmans, Prof. Joris van de Klundert June 7 th, 2017 De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 1 / 18
2 Introduction: 2 challenges 1. Linking decisions to outcomes: Decisions Outcomes De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 2 / 18
3 Introduction: 2 challenges 1. Linking decisions to outcomes: Decisions KPIs De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 3 / 18
4 Introduction: 2 challenges 1. Linking decisions to outcomes: Decisions KPIs Outcomes De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 4 / 18
5 Introduction: 2 challenges 2. Transforming insight into better decisions: Decisions Outcomes De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 5 / 18
6 Introduction: 2 challenges 2. Transforming insight into better decisions: De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 6 / 18
7 Problem Description Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT; sleeping sickness): Slowly progressing parasitic disease Transmitted by Tsetse fly WHO: cases De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 7 / 18
8 Problem Description Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT; sleeping sickness): Slowly progressing parasitic disease Transmitted by Tsetse fly WHO: cases Two disease stages (both appr. 1.5 years): 1 Symptoms absent or non-specific 2 Neurological problems De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 7 / 18
9 Problem Description Population screening crucial: Infected people do not observe disease/ do not obtain care Source for infection of Tsetse Result: HAT spreads silently De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 8 / 18
10 Problem Description Population screening crucial: Infected people do not observe disease/ do not obtain care Source for infection of Tsetse Result: HAT spreads silently Current strategy (DRC) 30 mobile screening teams De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 8 / 18
11 Problem Description Main research question: De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 9 / 18
12 Problem Description Main research question: Given current screening capacity... De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 9 / 18
13 Problem Description Main research question: Given current screening capacity... which villages to visit... De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 9 / 18
14 Problem Description Main research question: Given current screening capacity... which villages to visit... at what time interval... De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 9 / 18
15 Problem Description Main research question: Given current screening capacity... which villages to visit... at what time interval... to minimize the total average expected prevalence level?? De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 9 / 18
16 Linking decisions to outcomes Decisions Outcomes De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 10 / 18
17 Link Between Decisions and Prevalence Expected prevalence Time De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 11 / 18
18 Transforming insight into better decisions Decisions Outcomes De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 12 / 18
19 Frequency required for expected eradication Required screening interval (years) Sensitivity (%) Participation (%) De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 13 / 18
20 Solution method for the general planning problem Sophisticated methods: Column generation MIP Local optimization De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 14 / 18
21 Solution method for the general planning problem Sophisticated methods: Column generation MIP Local optimization Simple policies: Equalizing Filtering Differentiation Burden level De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 14 / 18
22 Solution method for the general planning problem De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 15 / 18
23 Solution method for the general planning problem Optimized Equalization Filtering Differentiation Burden-level Average exp. # infected Final exp. # infected De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 16 / 18
24 Conclusions Linking decisions to outcomes... can be complex becomes easier (more data) yields important insights De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 17 / 18
25 Conclusions Linking decisions to outcomes... can be complex becomes easier (more data) yields important insights Translating the link into decisions... can be essential can benefit both policy makers and people on the ground does not always require advanced tools De Vries, Wagelmans, Van de Klundert Optimizing Population Screening 17 / 18
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