Is the Canadian economy transitioning from raw materials to high-tech? Part 1. Alex Carrick, Chief Economist, ConstructConnect

Transcription

1 Is the Canadian economy transitioning from raw materials to high-tech? Part 1 Alex Carrick, Chief Economist, ConstructConnect

2 Computer Systems Design and Related Services - une, 2017 OBS - CANADA COMPUTER SYSTEMS DESIGN SERVICES ,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1, OBS U.S. COMPUTER SYSTEMS DESIGN SERVICES Level % Share of Nominal Change % Change (Number of jobs) Total Canada Y/Y Y/Y Nfld/Lab % % P.E.I % % Nova Scotia 4, % % New Brunswick 2, % % Quebec 63, % 5, % Ontario 104, % 11, % Manitoba 2, % % Saskatchewan 1, % % Alberta 18, % % B.C. 27, % 2, % Rest of Canada % (13) n/a Canada 226, % 20, % Industry code 5415 / 'n/a' means not applicable. Data source: Cansim Table: (SEPH) / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 2

3 Software Publishers - une, OBS - CANADA SOFTWARE PUBLISHERS Level % Share of Nominal Change % Change (Number of jobs) Total Canada Y/Y Y/Y Quebec 9, % (677) -6.7% Ontario 20, % 2, % Manitoba % 3 0.8% 400 OBS U.S. SOFTWARE PUBLISHING Alberta 2, % (115) -5.2% B.C. 8, % % Rest of Canada % 56 n/a Canada 42, % 2, % Industry code 5112 / 'n/a' means not applicable. Data source: Cansim Table: (SEPH) / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 3

4 Telecommunications - une, OBS - CANADA TELECOMMUNICATIONS Level % Share of Nominal Change % Change (Number of jobs) Total Canada Y/Y Y/Y Quebec 28, % 1 0.0% Ontario 48, % (2,086) -4.1% Alberta 11, % % 1,600 OBS U.S. TELECOMMUNICATIONS B.C. 14, % 1, % Rest of Canada 22, % 240 n/a 1,400 1,200 1, Canada 126, % (200) -0.2% Industry code 517 / 'n/a' means not applicable. Saskatchewan's numbers, especially, are subject to confidentiality in the source data. Data source: Cansim Table: (SEPH) / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 4

5 Motion Picture & Sound Recording Industries - une, OBS - CANADA MOVIES, VIDEOS & MUSIC Level % Share of Nominal Change % Change (Number of jobs) Total Canada Y/Y Y/Y Quebec 11, % % Ontario 21, % 1, % 440 OBS U.S. MOVIES, VIDEOS & MUSIC B.C. 8, % 1, % Rest of Canada 3, % 307 n/a Canada 45, % 2, % Industry code 512 / 'n/a' means not applicable. Data source: Cansim Table: (SEPH) / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect

6 Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing - une, 2017 OBS - CANADA AEROSPACE PRODUCT MANUFACTURING OBS U.S. AEROSPACE PRODUCT MANUFACTURING Level % Share of Nominal Change % Change (Number of jobs) Total Canada Y/Y Y/Y Nova Scotia 1, % (214) -11.9% Quebec 24, % (1,320) -5.2% Ontario 11, % (556) -4.5% Manitoba 3, % (226) -5.5% B.C. 1, % (95) -5.5% Rest of Canada % 5 n/a Canada 43, % (2,406) -5.2% Industry code 3364 / 'n/a' means not applicable. Data source: Cansim Table: (SEPH) / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 6

7 Is the Canadian economy transitioning from raw materials to high-tech? Part 2 Alex Carrick, Chief Economist, ConstructConnect

8 Stock Markets S & P/TSX COMPOSITE - TORONTO STOCK EXCHANGE NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE STANDARD AND POOR S (500) Index (1975=1000) 18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 11,247 Aug ,715 May ,212 Aug Index 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1, ,517 Aug ,549 Oct ,472 Aug , an 92-an 93-an 94-an 95-an 96-an 97-an 98-an 99-an 00-an 01-an 02-an 03-an 04-an 05-an 06-an 07-an 08-an 09-an 10-an 11-an 12-an 13-an 14-an 15-an 16-an 17-an Year and month 0 91-an 92-an 93-an 94-an 95-an 96-an 97-an 98-an 99-an 00-an 01-an 02-an 03-an 04-an 05-an 06-an 07-an 08-an 09-an 10-an 11-an 12-an 13-an 14-an 15-an 16-an 17-an Year and month NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE DOW-ONES INDUSTRIALS (30) NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX Index 24,000 21,000 18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 11,497 Dec ,930 Oct ,948 Aug Index 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 4,696 Feb ,859 Oct ,429 Aug ,000 1, an 92-an 93-an 94-an 95-an 96-an 97-an 98-an 99-an 00-an 01-an 02-an 03-an 04-an 05-an 06-an 07-an 08-an 09-an 10-an 11-an 12-an 13-an 14-an 15-an 16-an 17-an Year and month 0 91-an 92-an 93-an 94-an 95-an 96-an 97-an 98-an 99-an 00-an 01-an 02-an 03-an 04-an 05-an 06-an 07-an 08-an 09-an 10-an 11-an 12-an 13-an 14-an 15-an 16-an 17-an Year and month The charts show month-end closing figures. The latest data point is for August 31, Data Sources: Standard & Poor's, TSE, NYSE, NASDAQ and Reuters / Charts: CanaData ConstructConnect. 8

9 Canada Type-of-Structure Forecasts ($ Billions CAD) Actuals Forecasts Single-family Multi-family TOTAL RESIDENTIAL (Yr/yr % change) 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 6.1% 6.0% 5.6% 5.0% Hotels/Motels Private Offices Govenmental Offices Shopping/Retail Retail Miscellaneous Parking Garages Amusement Warehouses TOTAL COMMERCIAL (Yr/yr % change) 11.6% -30.8% -11.6% 14.1% 7.5% 5.1% 3.7% TOTAL INDUSTRIAL (manufacturing) (Yr/yr % change) -34.4% -34.3% 64.5% 22.0% 22.4% 14.9% 9.2% Religious Hospitals/Clinics MED misc Transportation Terminals Police,Fire Educational Facilities TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL (Yr/yr % change) 54.6% -42.0% 13.2% 12.8% 10.3% 8.5% 8.3% TOTAL NON-RES BUILDING (Yr/yr % change) 23.7% -36.3% 2.8% 14.1% 10.1% 7.6% 6.4% Bridges Dams/Canal/Marine Water & Sewage Treatment Roads Power Infrastructure All Other Civil (Oil & Gas etc.) TOTAL ENGINEERING (Yr/yr % change) -25.5% -34.4% -28.5% 18.3% 19.6% 15.1% 13.2% TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL (Yr/yr % change) -14.1% -35.0% -18.2% 16.6% 15.8% 12.2% 10.7% GRAND TOTAL (Yr/yr % change) -10.1% -23.7% -10.6% 11.7% 11.5% 9.4% 8.4% Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 9

10 Canada Type-of-Structure Forecasts Actuals Forecasts ($ Billions CAD) Summary CIVIL NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING RESIDENTIAL GRAND TOTAL Verticals All Other Civil Bridges Dams / Canals / Marine Work Power Infrastructure Roads Water and Sewage Treatment CIVIL (Yr/yr % change) -25.5% -34.4% -28.5% 18.3% 19.6% 15.1% 13.2% Offices (private) Parking Garages Transportation Terminals Commercial (Yr/yr % change) 31.8% -74.3% -10.5% 48.3% 24.3% 17.6% 14.0% Amusement Religious Community (Yr/yr % change) -9.8% -23.6% -9.6% 13.5% 5.7% 4.6% 3.3% Educational (Yr/yr % change) 61.2% -32.0% 6.2% 6.2% 5.7% 4.6% 4.1% Fire and Police Stations Government Offices Government (Yr/yr % change) 17.6% 25.5% 1.0% 3.9% 3.4% 3.0% 2.2% Manufacturing Warehouses Industrial (Yr/yr % change) -12.7% -22.9% 22.3% 16.4% 16.2% 11.6% 7.6% Hospitals / Clinics Medical Misc Medical (Yr/yr % change) 59.5% -50.7% 38.2% 21.4% 17.0% 13.9% 13.7% Hotels Retail Misc Shopping Retail (Yr/yr % change) 12.4% -30.5% -24.5% 13.6% 4.1% -1.9% -3.3% NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING (Yr/yr % change) 23.7% -36.3% 2.8% 14.1% 10.1% 7.6% 6.4% Multi-Family Single-Family RESIDENTIAL (Yr/yr % change) 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 6.1% 6.0% 5.6% 5.0% TOTAL NON- RESIDENTIAL (Yr/yr % change) -14.1% -35.0% -18.2% 16.6% 15.8% 12.2% 10.7% GRAND TOTAL (Yr/yr % change) -10.1% -23.7% -10.6% 11.7% 11.5% 9.4% 8.4% Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT. Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 10

11 Canada Type-of-Structure Forecasts (Square Footage Millions) Actuals Forecasts Single-family Multi-family TOTAL RESIDENTIAL (Yr/yr % change) -2.5% 0.0% 0.5% 6.3% 6.4% 5.7% 5.0% Hotels/Motels Private Offices Govenmental Offices Shopping/Retail Retail Miscellaneous Parking Garages Amusement Warehouses TOTAL COMMERCIAL (Yr/yr % change) 4.7% -20.4% -20.8% 16.5% 10.8% 5.6% 4.2% TOTAL INDUSTRIAL (manufacturing) (Yr/yr % change) -2.4% -49.0% 38.1% 20.6% 10.4% 8.1% 6.5% Religious Hospitals/Clinics MED misc Transportation Terminals Police,Fire Educational Facilities TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL (Yr/yr % change) 36.4% -36.4% 2.1% 10.3% 11.7% 7.3% 6.6% TOTAL NON-RES BUILDING (Yr/yr % change) 12.6% -27.6% -11.3% 14.8% 11.0% 6.3% 5.1% GRAND TOTAL (Yr/yr % change) 1.0% -7.3% -2.0% 7.9% 7.3% 5.8% 5.0% Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 11

12 Canada Type-of-Structure Forecasts Actuals Forecasts (Square Footage Millions) Summary NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING RESIDENTIAL GRAND TOTAL Verticals Offices (private) Parking Garages Transportation Terminals Commercial (Yr/yr % change) 21.4% -70.7% 7.3% 54.1% 23.6% 16.3% 14.3% Amusement Religious Community (Yr/yr % change) -3.4% -11.6% -17.0% 19.5% 13.7% 6.6% 3.8% Educational (Yr/yr % change) 47.6% -32.8% -8.5% 8.9% 11.7% 6.0% 4.4% Fire and Police Stations Government Offices Government (Yr/yr % change) -24.1% 15.3% -0.8% 4.2% 3.7% 2.5% 2.1% Manufacturing Warehouses Industrial (Yr/yr % change) 0.9% 1.6% -12.1% 13.4% 11.1% 7.4% 5.5% Hospitals / Clinics Medical Misc Medical (Yr/yr % change) 31.8% -41.0% 33.2% 11.9% 12.0% 8.6% 8.3% Hotels Retail Misc Shopping Retail (Yr/yr % change) 4.5% -23.5% -29.2% 10.2% 4.5% -0.9% -1.2% NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING (Yr/yr % change) 12.6% -27.6% -11.3% 14.8% 11.0% 6.3% 5.1% Multi-Family Single-Family RESIDENTIAL (Yr/yr % change) -2.5% 0.0% 0.5% 6.3% 6.4% 5.7% 5.0% GRAND TOTAL (Yr/yr % change) 1.0% -7.3% -2.0% 7.9% 7.3% 5.8% 5.0% Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT. Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 12

13 Architectural, Engineering & Related Services - une, ,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 OBS - CANADA ARCHITECTURAL & ENGINEERING OBS U.S. ARCHITECTURAL & ENGINEERING Level % Share of Nominal Change % Change (Number of jobs) Total Canada Y/Y Y/Y Nfld/Lab 2, % (147) -5.5% P.E.I % % Nova Scotia 2, % % New Brunswick 2, % % Quebec 39, % % Ontario 68, % 4, % Manitoba 3, % % Saskatchewan 4, % % Alberta 41, % (1,947) -4.5% B.C. 29, % 1, % NWT % % Rest of Canada % 84 n/a Canada 195, % 4, % Industry code 5413 / 'n/a' means not applicable. Data source: Cansim Table: (SEPH) / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 13

14 Canada Residential Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA FORESTRY & LOGGING $ $ OBS U.S. FORESTRY & LOGGING $ Billions CAD $30 $20 Forecast $10 $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 14

15 Canada Hotel/Motel Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA HOTELS & MOTELS 178 1,600 OBS U.S. HOTELS & MOTELS $ $1.2 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 1, $ Billions CAD $0.8 $0.4 Forecast $0.0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 15

16 Canada Private Offices Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA FINANCE & INSURANCE 750 6,400 OBS U.S. FINANCE & INSURANCE $ $3 6,200 6,000 5,800 5, $ Billions CAD $2 Forecast $1 $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 16

17 Canada Shopping/Retail Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA SOLELY INTERNET RETAIL SELLERS OBS U.S. SOLELY INTERNET RETAIL SELLERS $ $2.0 $ Billions CAD $1.5 $1.0 Forecast $0.5 $0.0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 17

18 Canada Warehouse Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA WAREHOUSE & STORAGE OBS U.S. WAREHOUSING & STORAGE 50 1, $ $1.2 $ Billions CAD $0.9 $0.6 Forecast $0.3 $0.0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 18

19 Canada Manufacturing Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA MANUFACTURING (SA) OBS U.S. MANUFACTURING 2,400 18,000 17,000 2,200 16,000 15,000 2,000 14,000 1,800 13,000 12,000 $5 1,600 11,000 $ $ Billions CAD $3 $2 Forecast $1 $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 19

20 Canada Manufacturing obs OBS - CANADA MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLY & PARTS OBS - CANADA SHIP & BOAT BUILDING OBS - CANADA COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCT MANUFACTURING 120 OBS - CANADA PHARMACEUTICALS & MEDICINE MANUFACTURING Data source: Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH), Statistics Canada (Cansim Table ) / Charts: CanaData ConstructConnect. 20

21 Canada and U.S. Food Manufacturing obs OBS - CANADA FOOD MANUFACTURING OBS U.S. FOOD MANUFACTURING 240 1, ,570 1,520 1,470 1, Data source: Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH), Statistics Canada (Cansim Table ) / Charts: CanaData ConstructConnect. 21

22 Cement & Concrete Product Manufacturing - une, OBS - CANADA CEMENT & CONCRETE PRODUCT MANUFACTURING OBS U.S. CEMENT & CONCRETE PRODUCTS Level % Share of Nominal Change % Change (Number of jobs) Total Canada Y/Y Y/Y Nova Scotia % % Quebec 7, % (700) -8.1% Ontario 11, % (1,210) -9.8% Manitoba 1, % % Saskatchewan % % Alberta 5, % 1, % B.C. 3, % % Rest of Canada % (7) n/a Canada 31, % % Industry code 3273 / 'n/a' means not applicable. Data source: Cansim Table: (SEPH) / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 22

23 Canadian Industries - Capacity Utilization Rates (85% and above is benchmark for more likely capital spending) Percentile Q Q Change Total industrial 78.9% 85.0% 6.1 Construction 83.5% 87.7% 4.2 Forestry and logging 88.9% 85.7% -3.2 Electric power generation, transmission and distribution 82.3% 85.2% 2.9 Oil and gas extraction 73.3% 84.0% 10.7 Mining 68.4% 82.8% 14.4 Total Manufacturing 80.6% 84.2% 3.6 Furniture and related product manufacturing 86.3% 92.7% 6.4 Leather and allied product manufacturing 84.8% 92.4% 7.6 Plastic product manufacturing 83.7% 91.5% 7.8 Textile mills 75.1% 91.0% 15.9 Petroleum and coal products manufacturing 81.7% 90.3% 8.6 Wood product manufacturing 88.1% 89.8% 1.7 Paper manufacturing 87.2% 89.3% 2.1 Rubber product manufacturing 85.9% 88.0% 2.1 Transportation equipment manufacturing 88.1% 87.8% -0.3 Computer and electronic product manufacturing 75.6% 86.8% 11.2 Chemical manufacturing 84.0% 86.7% 2.7 Food manufacturing 82.2% 86.6% 4.4 Beverage manufacturing 85.2% 86.4% 1.2 Machinery manufacturing 71.0% 85.3% 14.3 Textile product mills 69.2% 76.9% 7.7 Fabricated metal product manufacturing 72.6% 76.6% 4.0 Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing 72.8% 75.8% 3.0 Primary metal manufacturing 79.5% 75.6% -3.9 Electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing 73.6% 75.1% 1.5 Clothing manufacturing 72.8% 73.5% 0.7 Printing and related support activities 69.3% 71.2% 1.9 Tobacco manufacturing 62.1% 60.3% -1.8 Data source: Statistics Canada Cansim Table / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 23

24 Canada Institutional obs OBS - CANADA HOSPITALS OBS - CANADA ELEMENTARY & SECONDARY SCHOOLS OBS - CANADA COMMUNITY CARE FACILITIES FOR THE ELDERLY OBS - CANADA COLLEGES PLUS UNIVERSITIES Data source: Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH), Statistics Canada (Cansim Table ) / Charts: CanaData ConstructConnect. 24

25 Canada Hospital/Clinic Construction Starts ConstructConnect $7 $6 $5 Forecast $ Billions CAD $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 25

26 Canada Education Construction Starts ConstructConnect $8 $6 Forecast $ Billions CAD $4 $2 $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 26

27 Canada Roadwork Construction Starts ConstructConnect $12 $ OBS - CANADA MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT RENTAL & LEASING OBS U.S. MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT RENTAL & LEASING $ Billions CAD $6 $3 Forecast $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 27

28 Canada All Other Civil Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA OIL & GAS EXTRACTION OBS U.S. OIL & GAS EXTRACTION $ $36 $ Billions CAD $27 $18 Forecast $9 $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 28

29 Canada Grand Total Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA TOTAL CONSTRUCTION (SA) 1,500 8,000 OBS U.S. TOTAL CONSTRUCTION 1,400 7,500 1,300 1,200 7,000 1,100 6,500 1,000 6, $ , ,000 $ Forecast $ Billions CAD $90 $60 $30 $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 29

30 More U.S. obs Info OBS U.S. COAL MINING OBS U.S. INVESTIGATION & SECURITY SERVICES OBS - U.S. INSURANCE CARRIERS OBS - U.S. PET & PET SUPPLIES STORES 2, ,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2, Data source: Payroll Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Labor) / Charts: CanaData ConstructConnect. 30

31 Comparison of Latest Provincial Performances - Summer Year-over-year Changes Population Housing Starts obless Rate (level)* Total obs Hourly Earnings Weekly Earnings Retail Sales Export Sales GDP 2016/2015 GDP 2017/2016 GDP 2018/2017 N & L -0.2% -4.0% 15.7% -5.4% 4.4% 1.7% 0.0% 40.6% 1.9% -2.3% -0.5% PEI 1.4% 62.0% 10.0% 2.9% -0.7% 0.8% 5.5% 11.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.3% NS 0.6% 28.0% 7.9% 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 5.0% 2.4% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% NB 0.2% 32.0% 6.5% -0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 7.9% 17.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% Que 0.8% 16.0% 5.8% 3.0% 2.9% 2.4% 4.6% 9.9% 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% Ont 1.5% 3.0% 6.1% 2.0% 3.3% 1.6% 8.1% 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.3% Man 1.6% 61.0% 5.0% 2.1% 3.7% 3.1% 6.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.0% 2.2% Sask 1.4% 8.0% 6.6% -0.2% 1.7% 2.0% 4.7% 16.0% -1.0% 2.0% 2.2% Alta 1.4% 28.0% 7.8% 1.5% 2.8% 1.7% 9.0% 42.7% -3.8% 2.8% 3.3% BC 1.3% -4.0% 5.3% 3.6% 3.5% 2.5% 9.9% 23.9% 3.7% 3.0% 2.7% Canada 1.2% 9.0% 6.3% 2.1% 3.1% 2.0% 7.3% 12.6% 1.5% 2.6% 2.3% Yellow denotes equal to or better than nation-wide performance. Blue denotes worse than nation-wide performance. *(For the jobless rate, it's better to be lower than the national average.) 31