COMBATTING ILLICIT TRADE. Country Spotlight: Poland
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1 COMBATTING ILLICIT TRADE Country Spotlight: Poland
2 Increased prosecution key to combatting illicit trade Polish stakeholders executives, policy-makers and law enforcement estimate illicit trade levels close to European averages, though illicit medicines has sharply risen by 9% over the last three years, compared with the European average of just 3%. Polish consumers, in contrast, report illicit trade below the European average for both illicit (8% vs. 11%) and possibly illicit (19% vs. 27%). Poland is comprised of slightly more Activists* than the European average (18% vs. 14%), an equal number of Critics (32%), and marginally fewer Opportunists and Bargain Hunters. While reducing costs is key for for Opportunists and Bargain Hunters, increasing the chance of prosecution appears as a top influencing force across three of the consumer quadrants. Raising fines and assuring quality could also change consumer behaviour. When it comes to reducing illicit trade, Polish executives appear to be aligned with their European counterparts, with efforts mainly directed toward sharing information with others (49%) and collecting intelligence about illicit patterns (47%). Policy officials plans for the next three years will involve collecting information on illicit trade (54%) and providing business guidance and discussion forums (49%). Law enforcement has focused on data analytics over the past three years, but will shift to collaborating with others to identify high-risk imports, along with authenticating products using processes or technologies (both ) and collecting information on illicit trade patterns (48%), a very different set of priorities from Europe as a whole. * Note: See definition of consumer segments on slide 10. 2
3 Illicit trade in medicines has risen sharply 16% In your country, how much of total consumption do you estimate is illicit? How much has illicit trade in your country increased in the last three years? Poland, stakeholders 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 13% 13% 14% 14% 12% 13% 4% 2% 0% 9% 4% 5% 3% 2% 2% Total products Cigarettes Alcohol Films Clothing Medicines Total consumption estimated as illicit today Increase in illicit trade in the last 3 years Source: Oxford Economics stakeholder survey, Polish business executives, law enforcement, and policy officials respondents, n=225 3
4 Illicit purchases are lower than average across board 60% How likely are some of the products that you ve purchased been illicit? All countries vs. Poland, consumers 19% 10% 11% 27% 8% 19% 13% 21% 13% 17% 9% 24% 7% 18% 35% 11% 11% 34% 7% 8% 23% 7% 13% 0% All countries Poland All countries Poland All countries Poland All countries Poland All countries Poland All countries Poland Total products Cigarettes Alcohol Films Clothing Medicines Possibly illicit Illicit Source: Oxford Economics consumer survey, Polish respondents, n=1,036 4
5 Motivation / outlook COUNTRY SPOTLIGHT: POLAND To reduce illicit trade, cut costs and raise penalties Product Social Critics Activists 32% 18% Increase chance of prosecution 42% Raise fines and penalties 64% Publish names involved in illicit 42% Increase chance of prosecution 59% Raise fines and penalties 41% Track illicit goods 59% Opportunists Bargain Hunters 38% 12% Reduce cost 65% Reduce cost 69% Increase availability 64% Increase chance of prosecution 69% Assure quality 63% Assure quality 66% Possibly illicit Complicity to buy illicit Illicit Source: Oxford Economics consumer survey, Polish responses, n=750 5
6 Executives will focus on sharing and collecting intelligence 60% Which of the following initiatives aimed at reducing illicit trade have you carried out or do you plan to carry out? Poland, business execs 10% 39% 39% 38% 39% 35% 37% 39% 36% 41% 36% 42% 39% 33% 35% 49% 27% 28% 44% 31% 23% 47% 29% 39% 0% Change product design Product advertising & promotion Supply chain tracking, monitoring & reporting Change Change the manufacture or price, quality, or packaging service Supply-chain contractual controls Collect intelligence about consumer attitudes Share info with others Collaborate with others Product authentication using digital technology Collect intelligence about illicit trade patterns Consumer awareness campaign Implemented over last 3 years Plan to implement over next 3 years Source: Oxford Economics stakeholder survey, Polish business executive respondents, n=150 6
7 Policy officials plan to collect information as well 60% Which of the following initiatives aimed at reducing illicit trade have you carried out or do you plan to carry out? Poland, policy officials 10% 34% 54% 43% 34% 34% 34% 46% 37% 29% 34% 26% 49% 29% 43% 23% 31% 0% Collect information on illicit trade patterns Coordinate policy with other departments Collaborate with international organizations Update legislation and/or legal frameworks Change penalties for businesses Consumer awareness campaign Business guidance and/or discussion forums Update penalties for criminals Change penalties for consumers Change penalties for retailers Implemented over last 3 years Plan to implement over next 3 years Source: Oxford Economics stakeholder survey, Polish policy officials respondents, n=35 Note: Findings are indicative because of low sample size. 7
8 Law enforcement has focused on data analytics 60% Which of the following initiatives aimed at reducing illicit trade have you carried out or do you plan to carry out? Poland, law enforcement officers (1/2) 10% 25% 35% 33% 38% 38% 25% 38% 28% 23% 35% 35% 48% 45% 35% 0% Automate manual customs procedures Collaborate with e- commerce suppliers, couriers and depots Collaborate with international organizations on joint initiatives Collaborate with others in your industry/trade associations Collaborate with others to identify high-risk imports Collaborate with policy makers & public sector officials Collect information on illicit trade patterns Data analytics to target enforcement Implemented over last 3 years Plan to implement over next 3 years Source: Oxford Economics stakeholder survey, Polish law enforcement respondents, n=40 Note: Findings are indicative because of low sample size. 8
9 but will shift to collaboration and product authentication 60% Which of the following initiatives aimed at reducing illicit trade have you carried out or do you plan to carry out? Poland, law enforcement officers (2/2) 10% 28% 43% 45% 35% 43% 33% 48% 38% 25% 35% 43% 0% Improve compliance with existing policies and procedures Increase random searches at new locations Launch anti-corruption initiatives Measure effectiveness of enforcement initiatives Monitor & track shipments Product authentication using processes or tech Train law enforcement officers about latest developments Implemented over last 3 years Plan to implement over next 3 years Source: Oxford Economics stakeholder survey, Polish law enforcement respondents, n=40 Note: Findings are indicative because of low sample size. 9
10 How do we define consumer segments? GLOSSARY OF TERMS Critics 32% Activists 14% Critics buy goods illicitly because of societal factors such as believing there is nothing wrong with illicit sources, no chance of being caught, and that others do it. They have experienced faulty and inferior illicit products more than any other group, perhaps explaining why they don t actively seek to purchase through illicit channels. Activists are strongly opinionated about social factors. They perceive illicit trade is a victimless crime, so decisively choose to purchase illegitimately. The low chance of detection and view that lots of people engage with illicit across society may embolden Activists to pursue illicit avenues. What is the matrix? The consumer matrix analyses total illicit purchases across the five product categories. A consumer may appear in the matrix more than once, as they can buy multiple products. What will most influence consumers to change their behaviour? Strategies to modify behaviour Assure quality Reduce cost Increase availability Clarify goods are legit Track illicit goods Opportunists Bargain Hunters 14% Opportunists are motivated to purchase illicit by product factors such as price, quality and accessibility. They may buy illicit goods as opportunities present themselves, rather than actively seeking them out. This group, more than any other, finds that illicit goods are available at lower prices than legitimate alternatives. Raise fines and penalties Communicate wider implications Increase chance of prosecution Publish names involved in illicit Remind illicit harms legit firms Description Bargain Hunters prioritise pursuing better deals, resulting in their engagement with illicit products. Quality, availability and price are their main drivers, which Bargain Hunters state are just as accessible in illegitimate markets. In fact, more than any other group, they insist that illicit markets offer identical products and significantly lower costs. Note: Figures above reflect the European averages for all countries combined. Only consumers who said they had likely or possibly purchased goods illicitly are included in this segmentation. What do we mean by illicit trade? By illicit trade we mean products or services that are not authentic and/or not bought through official distribution channels. Consumers total illicit purchases include both known illicit and possibly illicit purchases. Providing quality assurance, warranty, reward schemes and after-sales service of legitimate goods Reducing the cost of the legitimate good (e.g., reducing the tax) Increasing the availability of legitimate products (e.g., quicker, better distribution) Clarifying that goods are legitimate (e.g., supplier, website, and product authentication or certification) Knowing that retailers and/or law enforcement can track and identify illicit products Raising fines and penalties for buying illicit products Understanding consequences of buying illicit goods (e.g., health risks, funding organised crime/terrorism) Increasing the likelihood of being punished for buying illicit goods Publishing the names of those caught distributing and purchasing illicit goods in local media Making clear how buying illicit goods hurts law-abiding companies and their workers
11 ABOUT THIS STUDY Combatting Illicit Trade: Understanding perspectives and strategies is a study produced by Oxford Economics and financed by PMI IMPACT, a global grant initiative by Philip Morris International to support projects dedicated to fighting illegal trade and related crimes. Our research explores the reasons for the growth of illicit trade in the following sectors: cigarettes and tobacco; alcoholic beverages; films, music, and games; clothing, footwear and accessories; and medicines and pharmaceutical healthcare products. Importantly, the study s key goal was to identify effective ways to reduce illicit trade, by looking at the issue from four different perspectives: the motivations of consumers, the strategies of business executives, the decisions by policy-makers and the efforts of enforcement agencies. To explore these issues, we carried out two large-scale surveys across 37 European countries, with more than 45,000 respondents in our final data set. The survey was conducted between November 2017 and February 2018, over the telephone in the respondent s native language or online. In addition, we conducted 15 one-on-one interviews with business executives, policy-makers, academic experts and law enforcement officials. We thank all who participated for their time and insight. The full results of our study s findings, including a White Paper, 37 country analysis slideshows, the final dataset (in Excel format), an interactive dashboard and the study s methodology, can be accessed on Oxford Economics website by clicking the following link: About Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is one of the world s foremost independent global advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools on 200 countries, 100 industrial sectors and over 3,000 cities. It employs more than 150 professional economists, industry experts and business editors one of the largest teams of macroeconomists and thought leadership specialists. 11
12 Europe, Middle East, and Africa: Global headquarters Oxford Economics Ltd Abbey House 121 St Aldates Oxford, OX1 1HB UK Tel: +44 (0) London Broadwall House 21 Broadwall London, SE1 9PL UK Tel: +44 (0) Belfast Lagan House Sackville Street Lisburn County Down, BT27 4AB Tel: + 44 (0) Paarl 12 Cecilia Street Paarl 7646 South Africa Tel: +27(0) Frankfurt Mainzer Landstraße Frankfurt am Main Germany Tel: Paris 25 rue Tiphaine Paris France Tel: +33 (0) Milan Via Cadorna Albairate (MI) Italy Tel: Americas: New York 5 Hanover Square, 8th Floor New York, NY USA Tel: +1 (646) Philadelphia 303 West Lancaster Avenue Suite 2e Wayne, PA USA Tel: +1 (610) Mexico City Emerson 150, Despacho 802 Col. Polanco, Miguel Hidalgo México D.F., C.P Tel: +52 (55) Boston 51 Sawyer Rd Building 2 - Suite 220 Waltham, MA USA Tel: +1 (617) Chicago 980 N. Michigan Avenue, Suite 1412 Chicago Illinois, IL USA Tel: +1 (773) Miami 8201 Peters Road Suite 1000, Plantation, FL USA Tel: +1 (954) San Francisco Tel: +1 (415) Asia Pacific: Singapore Singapore Land Tower 37th Floor 50 Raffles Place Singapore Tel: Hong Kong 30/F, Suite 3112 Entertainment Building 30 Queen s Road Central Hong Kong Tel: Sydney Level 4, 95 Pitt Street Sydney, 2000 Australia Tel: +61 (0) mailbox@oxfordeconomics.com Website:
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