Improving our capacity of identification and reporting on emerging trends. New methods and new areas of analysis

Transcription

1 Improving our capacity of identification and reporting on emerging trends New methods and new areas of analysis

2 Monitoring challenges Rapidly changing, globalised drug market Growth of online and virtual drug markets City level or local patterns of use Users often unaware of which substance they are using Reliability of surveys But new tools in the epidemiological toolkit: Wastewater analysis Internet monitoring Emergency Rooms data Trendspotting Complement and sensitise existing monitoring 2 2

3 New tools in the epidemiological toolkit EWS Tracking new drugs and emerging trends Hospital emergencies Forensic & pill testing Internet monitoring Wastewater analysis KI, trendspotter Local/city networks Routine monitoring: surveys, seizures, overdoses etc. 3 3

4 EMCDDA Trendspotter methodology Jane Mounteney

5 Trendspotter concept Rapid and in-depth information gathering On subject of concern, uncertainty One off and ad hoc Not an ongoing network of trendspotters - different topics require different experts. 5

6 TS role in drug monitoring In depth exploration of a topic Complementary to monitoring Explore an issue raised by monitoring Incorporates monitoring data Adds a qualitative, human component Lead to improvements in tools Sits here on the monitoring diagram 6

7 Use GPS SITUATION SITUATION Availability /supply PDU TDI TS DM Demand reduction Harm reduction Supply reduction Crime reduction DRD DRID TS D-RC Harms CONSEQUENCES CONSEQUENCES Crime 7

8 Trendspotter methods Draws on mixed methods approaches And rapid assessment methodologies Multi-source, multi-method, triangulation: Literature review Data collection Electronic survey Expert presentations Focus groups Social media 8

9 Choice of topic Response to environmental signals Suggest a significant emerging trend EWS plays a central role An area of uncertainty A gap in our monitoring A multi-country issue NT CUP decision 9

10 Trendspotter study process Preparation During meeting Post meeting EMCDDA data collection, literature review Expert presentations x15 & EMCDDA Electronic survey Network survey Focus/ discussion groups Report ANALYSIS 10

11 Triangulation of data, methods, investigators for.. Confirmation Completeness 11

12 Choice of experts WS1 Forums WS4 Chemical analysis WS 5 Technical Folders WS2 Online Shops WS3 Online Survey 12

13 2011: what s happening to Europe s heroin supply? Drop in availability of heroin reported in UK and Ireland in late 2010 /early 2011, and shortages in Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia, Croatia, Switzerland, Russia. 13

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15 Heroin shortage and drought Yes No No data? 15

16 Divergent situations Severe heroin shortage for a small group of countries, November 2010 to March Bulgaria, Ireland, Hungary, Slovakia, UK, Switzerland & Russia. Belgium, France, Portugal, no reports of heroin shortage, and anecdotal reports of purity increases. A longer term reduction in heroin purity identified in some countries. Virtual disappearance of heroin from illicit market in Estonia, Finland 2001/2002 result of early market shock. 16

17 Replacement products? Alcohol Benzodiazepines (UK, IE) Amphetamines (SK), crack cocaine (UK) Cathinones, synth cannabinoids (HU) Buprenorphine (FI, N), fentanyl (SK, EE, BU) 17

18 Slide, squeeze and shocks in EU heroin market Short term shock acute drought linked with countries on same supply networks Linked with law enforcement action Turkey/UK Medium term market squeeze linked to poppy blight, floods, fighting other expanding markets & treatment expansion Long term slide in some EU countries from 2001 Taliban ban on opium production Irrevocable changes e.g. in Estonia & Finland 18

19 Fentanyl in Europe exploring the illicit market: availability, use and harms Aim: 1) increase understanding of the illicit use and availability of fentanyl in Europe, and 2) explore illicit production and diversion; and fentanyl-related harms and deaths 19

20 2013: Methamphetamine outbreaks Pervitin, CZ Slamming, UK S(H)ISA, Greece Amphetamine, Norway Crystal, Turkey, Greece 20

21 2014 Internet and drug markets To increase understanding of the online supply of drugs and undertake a mapping of the range of internet drug markets in existence. Surface web The role of social media and apps Online sale of NPS Online sales of medicinal products for illicit use Sale of drugs on the deep web 21

22 Limitations of the approach Scarcity of data Dependent on weak data Reliant on quality of experts One off snapshot Spotlight, but not repeated Probably not replicable 22

23 Strengths Fill knowledge gaps Benefit of timeliness and sensitivity Rich analysis multi dimensional (3D) Can address quantitative issues How many, where, when? Also qualitative issues how, what? 23

24 Next steps MDMA study in October Develop a manual Trendspotter network online? 24