IRI Pulse Report Chilled and Fresh

Transcription

1 IRI Pulse Report Chilled and Fresh Welcome to the Pulse Q edition for chilled and fresh. We hope you find it useful. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or comments at Q IRIworldwide.eu

2 About the Report This chilled and fresh report is one of 10 super category reports designed to show highlevel comparison and analysis for retail markets across major countries in Europe. This report contains data gathered from around Europe. This market was split into the following categories: yogurts, dairy desserts and drinks, cream, eggs, margarines, butter, fats and spreads, milk, cheese, chilled juices, fresh desserts, salads, tofu/soya, chilled dips and sauces, ready meals, chilled fish and seafood, charcuterie, fresh vegetables and fresh fruit. The report highlights key metrics, such as total sales figures, market trends, category shares, winners and losers for Europe and for individual countries. The data has been sourced from IRI retail databases and Eurostat the statistical branch of administration for the European Commission. The countries included in the report are: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom (UK). The market channels used for each country in this report are as follows: Country UK ES DE NL IT FR Channels used Hypermarkets, supermarkets, drugstores and impulse outlets Hypermarkets, supermarkets, hard discounters and drugstores. It includes the Canary Islands. Hypermarkets, supermarkets, hard discounters and drugstores Hypermarkets, supermarkets, hard discounters and drugstores Hypermarkets, supermarkets, small self service, hard discounters and drugstores Hypermarkets and supermarkets For analytical purposes the data sourced from available retail databases has been consolidated to provide consistent results. However, for some countries it was not possible to source data pertaining to certain categories. Where this occurred, it has been documented in the Notes section found at the end of the report. 2

3 On the Radar Chilled and fresh has seen growth slow over the latest quarter as deflationary pressures continue to decrease value. In many countries this has been driven by the growth of private label and discounters. Higher prices have previously been supporting value, but volume is also struggling in some categories, often due to shallower deals impacting promotional uplifts. NPD has played an important role across some categories, being less susceptible to pricing pressures, therefore adding category value. ECONOMIC FIGURES INFLUENCING CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR POPULATION IN MILLIONS UNEMPLOYMENT (%) AVERAGE 12 MONTHS INFLATION RATES GDP IN MILLIONS ( ) Jan Jan Dec Average 2013 Dec Average France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain United Kingdom Source: Eurostat, December

4 GLOBAL TRENDS TOTAL CHILLED & FRESH VALUE SALES AND % CHANGE VERSUS PRIOR YEAR -2.8% +1.3% -0.2% +1.5% VALUE SALES IN MILLIONS ( ) Total EU DE FR IT UK * NL % -0.6% ES *based on an exchange rate of to the pound TOTAL EUROPE +0.3% TOTAL CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE SALES FOR THE LAST SIX QUARTERS 30,000 25, France 20,000 Germany 15, Italy 10,000 5, sep dic mar jun sep dic-14 Netherlands Spain UK Period Ending and prior five quarters 4

5 Europe CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Chilled Juices Fresh Vegetables Milk Fresh Desserts SHARE OF CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE FOR THE YEAR 20.9% 20.7% Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & 10.6% 8.1% Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads 6.2% Milk 5.6% Chilled Juices 5.3% Fresh Desserts 4.9% Fresh Vegetables 4.2% 3.5% Fresh Fruit 2.5% Salads 2.5% Chilled Fish and Seafood 2.43% KEY TRENDS The chilled and fresh market in Europe ended 2014 with sales in very slight growth (0.3%) with sales in quarter 4 down versus the previous year. Germany and France continue to be the driving force that is keeping overall European sales in growth, with the biggest percentage decline coming from the UK although all smaller markets are still struggling to drive value. There are a combination of trends impacting category sales across Europe. The continued growth of private label and discounters ensures that deflationary pressures remain on pricing in many categories, whilst in others, increased promotions but shallower deals have driven up prices but impacted on uplifts and sales volumes. Cream 2.0% Chilled Dips and Sauces 0.7% Tofu / Soya 0.1% Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom 5

6 Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Europe TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Chilled Juices Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Milk Salads Cream TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION Value sales ( ) and % change versus a year ago CATEGORY INSIGHTS remains the key contributor to growth within chilled and fresh foods with value gains in most countries particularly France and Germany, which have the biggest sales. 2.9 Total Sales % vs. YA , which is the second largest in terms of value sales, has seen the most actual value decline in the last year, largely from Germany driven by hard discounters. declines also in Italy and the Netherlands. With increased pressure on prices in many categories, new product development has been important for category growth and maintaining value. This has been the case for categories such as yoghurts, butter and dairy drinks, where increased demand for naturalness and beneficial ingredients (such as protein, lactose free and less processed products) have played a key role. Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom 6

7 France CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR Chilled Fish and Seafood Fresh Desserts Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Salads Fresh Vegetables SHARE OF CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE FOR THE YEAR 23.3% 20.0% 12.2% Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & 10.9% Chilled Fish and Seafood 6.9% Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads 5.8% Fresh Desserts 5.1% Salads 4.5% 3.9% Fresh Vegetables 2.6% Chilled Juices 1.5% Cream 1.2% Fresh Fruit 1.1% Milk 0.4% Tofu / Soya 0.3% Chilled Dips and Sauces 0.3% KEY TRENDS 2014 is a better year than 2013 for volume sales of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) : +0.7% versus -0.2%. However this is not the case for the growth of value sales: only +0.9% versus +1.1% year ago. The main reason, is the price deflation (1.3%). The good news is that with these reductions in prices, consumers tend to go more upmarket. The chilled and fresh categories performance for 2014 is slightly better, but only for value sales: +1.3% Price deflation has played less of a role here than for total FMCG and for the cheese category, prices are even increasing. Chilled and fresh value sales rose throughout the year with Q4 sales growth 1.1%. In this latest quarter, several markets confirmed their good health (cheese, salads, charcuterie). Exceptions to this trend include cream and margarine & butter, because of the warm temperatures versus Q Ready meal Q4 sales were static due to less promotions. 7

8 Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Chilled Fish and Seafood France TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES Milk Fresh Fruit Salads Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Fresh Desserts Chilled Fish and Seafood TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION Value sales ( ) and % change versus a year ago CATEGORY INSIGHTS is still the primary contributor to chilled and fresh category performance in France. Growth remains strong: +1.7% in value sales in 2004, +1.3% in Q4. Drawn standard poultry and poultry ham are the main contributors to growth was a year of growth for the cheese category with positive trends on each quarter (1.6% in Q4). The good performance of this category is largely due to Mediterranean and salad cheeses. Ready meals maintain a healthy trend, particularly driven by the success of hot snacks, pastry and sandwiches. Yogurts and dairy desserts continue to struggle in 2004 (0.5% for value sales), impacted by less promotions and deflation. Total Sales % vs. YA 8

9 Germany CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Fresh Desserts Cream Chilled Juices Salads SHARE OF CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE FOR THE YEAR 25.0% 24.4% Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & 8.8% Chilled Juices 8.6% Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads 8.3% 6.0% Fresh Desserts 3.9% 3.8% Cream 3.7% Salads 3.63% Milk 3.2% Chilled Fish and Seafood 0.69% Tofu / Soya 0.1% Chilled Dips and Sauces 0.0% KEY TRENDS In Germany, chilled and fresh recorded a value growth of 1.5%, outpacing the combined rate of the rest of the European countries. Of this value growth, 89.4% is contributed by hypermarkets which grew at 3.9%, mainly driven by the sub-channels of square meter (sq. m.) and sq. m. contributes more than 90% of the value growth; yogurts, dairy desserts & drinks and ready meals also show significant value gain offsetting the heavy decline in charcuterie and eggs. Promotions account for more than 90% of the value gain, cheese seeing the biggest gains from promotion. Accounting for half of value sales, private label grew in both value and volume, whereas national brands value only saw slight value growth, driven by price rather than volume. 9

10 Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Chilled Juices Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Germany TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES Chilled Fish and Seafood Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Chilled Juices Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Cream Milk TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION Value sales ( ) and % change versus a year ago CATEGORY INSIGHTS is the strongest performing chilled and fresh category in Germany, driven by sliced cheese and hard cheese segments. Hypermarket and discounters enjoy a combined value share of 89.5% in this category. Yogurts, dairy desserts & drinks display a positive performance driven by the growth in milkshakes and natural yogurt. Private label sales account for one third of the category in value terms, with a gain of 0.4 points. Both chilled and ambient charcuterie has experienced a sharp sales decline, mainly driven by the hard discounter channel, impacting across both private label and branded products. A reduction in promotions has also impacted the category adversely, driving the decline particularly in the reduced fat and sausage segments. Despite growth in hypermarkets (2.5%), chilled juices post a decline mainly due to value losses in discounters. Total Sales % vs. YA 10

11 Italy CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR Fresh Vegetables Milk Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Fresh Fruit Fresh Desserts SHARE OF CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE FOR THE YEAR 24.2% 14.6% Fresh Vegetables 14.0% Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & 11.0% 9.1% Fresh Fruit 7.5% Milk 7.04% 5.0% Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads 3.1% Fresh Desserts 2.6% Chilled Dips and Sauces 1.1% Cream 0.5% Chilled Juices 0.2% Tofu / Soya 0.1% KEY TRENDS In Q4 2014, FMCG sales were lower versus the prior year. For chilled and fresh, value growth was stronger than that of total grocery (0.4% versus 0.8%), however this was not the case for volume, with chilled and fresh declining at a faster rate than total grocery (2.0% and 1.4%, respectively). Among the most important categories of the market, yogurt, vegetables and charcuterie are experiencing positive growth (1.6%, 0.6% and 1.5%, respectively). Meanwhile, fresh fruit and cheese are seeing negative value trends (down 1.6% and 0.5%, respectively). Fresh meat and ready meals are enjoying significant increases in both volume and value (in particular fresh meat). The strong fresh meat performance has been driven by the shift of some products from random weight to fixed weight; whereas for ready meals there is a noticeable increase of promotional pressure and a slight increase of the average volume price. The decline of functional yogurts has slowed, impacting overall yoghurts, which remains down in value (1.5%) but volume is up (3.1%). 11

12 Fresh Vegetables Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Italy TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Fresh Desserts Chilled Dips and Sauces Milk Tofu / Soya Fresh Vegetables Cream 2.0 Fresh Fruit TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION Value sales ( ) and % change versus a year ago Total Sales % vs. YA CATEGORY INSIGHTS Deflation is taking hold across a number of categories in FMCG. Within chilled and fresh, Q4 prices were higher versus year ago (+2.4%), driven primarily by ready meals and fixed weight fresh fruit (up +2.2% and +5.5% respectively). Private label has achieved a very high share of chilled and fresh value sales (27.9%, versus a FMCG average of 22.3%), and share is stable. Private label promotional pressure is growing even if it is still lower than the category average (18.0% versus 21.5%), although a reduction in promotional prices impacting uplifts (uplift 15.7% versus year ago). The categories with the highest promotional activity are fresh pasta, cheese, charcuterie, fresh seasonings and fresh fruits. In each of these categories, more than 30% of volume is sold on deal and promotional effectiveness has slipped versus last year, impacted by lower price discounts. This trend for shallower deals and therefore reduced uplifts has been seen across most chilled and fresh categories. 12

13 The Netherlands CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR Fresh Desserts Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Fresh Vegetables Fresh Fruit Milk Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Chilled Fish and Seafood SHARE OF CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE FOR THE YEAR 27.6% Fresh Vegetables 15.8% 12.1% Fresh Fruit 11.8% Fresh Desserts 7.9% Milk 3.9% Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads 3.8% Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & 3.6% 3.4% Chilled Fish and Seafood 3.0% Salads 2.7% 2.2% Chilled Juices 1.5% Cream 0.6% Chilled Dips and Sauces 0.3% Tofu / Soya 0.0% KEY TRENDS In the Netherlands, consumer trust is on the rise and signs of economic recovery can be seen. Total supermarket sales over 2014 came in slightly higher versus prior year (0.3%). The chilled and fresh category is critical to the supermarket channel, with sales accounting for 42.7% of channel sales. For the first time in years the chilled and fresh value growth lags behind the total supermarket sales growth (0.1% versus 0.3% respectively). This time last year the chilled and fresh category experienced a positive value growth of 1.6%, whilst total supermarket sales grew with 1.3%. Three of the biggest chilled and fresh categories, meat, fresh vegetables and fresh fruit are experiencing negative value trends (down 4.6%, 1.3% and 0.3% respectively). is the only big category that is experiencing a positive value growth versus prior year (up 2.4%). 13

14 Fresh Vegetables Fresh Fruit Fresh Desserts The Netherlands TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES Fresh Fruit Chilled Juices Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Chilled Fish and Seafood Salads Fresh Vegetables Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION Value sales ( ) and % change versus a year ago Total Sales % vs. YA CATEGORY INSIGHTS sales increased (2.4% value in Q4 2014), driven by foreign cheese (e.g., mozzarella and goat cheese), which are increasingly used in salads. The value growth in the chilled juices segment is mainly boosted by private label. The big retailers (Albert Heijn and Jumbo) added new flavours to the chilled juices private label assortment, capitalising on the growing health food and fresh trends by offering customers a more healthy and fresh alternative. The chilled fish and seafood category has seen positive value growth again in 2014 after a bad year in 2013 (impacted by the salmonella scandal). Meat shows a decline because consumers, in general are eating less meat than before. In contrast, poultry and vegetarian meals, which are perceived to be healthier, are experiencing good growth. Vegetables and fruit are in value sales decline (1.3%) predominantly due to deflationary prices. 14

15 Spain CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR Chilled Fish and Seafood Cream Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Fresh Desserts Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Chilled Dips and Sauces SHARE OF CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE FOR THE YEAR 31.0% Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & 21.8% 17.8% 7.9% 5.7% Fresh Desserts 5.5% Chilled Fish and Seafood 3.9% Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads 2.4% Cream 1.6% Chilled Dips and Sauces 1.5% Milk 0.5% KEY TRENDS Recent economic news for Spain has been positive, with the GDP growing by 1.4% in Q versus the prior year, with growth faster than the European average. The yoghurt category had a difficult 2014 with sales in decline., the biggest chilled and fresh category saw value growth, as did cheese. Private label share of chilled and fresh sales is on the decline, as prices have increased, closing the price gap between private label and brands slightly. Promotional activity has risen across chilled and fresh in 2014, but remains generally lower than the FMCG average of 21.0%. Salads 0.4% 15

16 Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Spain TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES Fresh Desserts Chilled Fish and Seafood Salads Chilled Dips and Sauces Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION Value sales ( ) and % change versus a year ago CATEGORY INSIGHTS continues to enjoy value growth, driven by the national brands. As brands grow, private label charcuterie has experienced declines during the past year. Almost all segments of the yogurt category have struggled to drive growth, although promotional activity has not seen significant changes compared to last year. Low calorie yogurt and lcasei yogurt (probiotic bacteria), are key segments, both of which have seen significant decline, impacting the whole category performance. Ethnic is bucking the trend and has seen increases in In contrast to the general chilled and fresh trend, egg sales continue to struggle and finish 2014 in decline driven by private label. The cheese category, on the other hand, continues to grow, predominantly due to national brands. Total Sales % vs. YA 16

17 The United Kingdom CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR Milk Chilled Juices Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Fresh Desserts Cream SHARE OF CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE FOR THE YEAR Milk 23.1% 19.4% Chilled Juices 15.7% Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & 11.9% Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads 9.5% 8.8% Fresh Desserts 6.4% Chilled Dips and Sauces 2.7% Cream 2.5% KEY TRENDS Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Chilled Dips and Sauces Value sales remain in decline for the second consecutive quarter in the UK (2.8%) and are under-performing compared to total FMCG which overall are currently seeing value sales down 1.5% compared to Q4 last year. The economy continues to show encouraging signs of recovery with the latest GDP figures up 0.5% on Q although growth was slower than expected. Milk remains the biggest sector and a key focus for retailers in driving shoppers into stores and demonstrating price competitive strategies. With conventional fresh milk prices down 8.7% this quarter compared to just 0.6% for UK packaged food, confectionery, drinks, exc. Alcohol, it is therefore no surprise that milk has seen the biggest value decline in chilled and fresh both in actual value and % terms. The continued growth of hard discounters in the UK has seen base sales for the top 4 retailers continue to struggle particularly for commodity products where private label takes a larger share. 17

18 Milk Chilled Juices Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads The United Kingdom TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES Fresh Desserts Chilled Dips and Sauces Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Chilled Juices Milk TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION Value sales ( ) and % change versus a year ago Total Sales % vs. YA CATEGORY INSIGHTS After milk, it is chilled Juices which have lost the most value versus a year ago. Despite an increased percentage in volume being sold on deal (to 70%) and higher prices, volume sales are down with unpromoted base sales the biggest contributor to this decline. value sales remains in growth due to higher prices. Growth however has slowed over the last few months as volume declines further, threatening to push future category value into decline. The margarine, butter, fats and spreads category continues to fall in value. Base sales remain under pressure from the growth of hard discounters, the decline of host products such as bread and the rise of breakfast on the go. Private label block butter has, like milk, been included in the price wars in retailers. Private label everyday block butter Q4 prices are down by 10.0% on last year whilst prices for total butter, spreads and margarine are 0.2%. 18

19 Final Notes Notes on category definitions for countries Due to the diverse products found in individual countries across this market it was necessary to consolidate the available data into the categories in this report. In some cases it wasn t always possible to align products across all 6 countries hence the need to highlight any anomalies in the report. Those exceptions are listed below: The UK data in this report does not include this category. Margarine, butter, fats and spreads The UK data in this report does not include fats in this category. The Spain data in this report does not include fats in this category. Tofu/soya The UK data in this report does not include this category. The Spain data in this report does not include this category. Chilled fish and seafood The UK data in this report does not include this category. The Italy data in this report does not include this category. The UK data in this report does not include this category. Fresh vegetables The UK data in this report does not include this category. The Spain data in this report does not include this category. The Germany data in this report does not include this category. Fresh fruit The UK data in this report does not include this category. The Spain data in this report does not include this category. The Germany data in this report does not include this category. 19

20 Resources To gain insight into opportunities across specific categories, segments, channels or retailers, contact your IRI client service representative regarding custom analyses leveraging the following resources: InfoScan Census is a syndicated retail tracking service that enables manufacturers and retailers to acquire industry insights used to make better business decisions. InfoScan Census utilises the data that IRI collects from grocery, drug, and mass merchandise retailers to provide the most comprehensive and accurate syndicated data offering in the FMCG sector. With access to accurate, granular detail by category, geography, measure, and time period, clients have the tools needed to develop marketing and sales strategies based on product performance, distribution, and promotion responsiveness. All data about chilled and fresh comes from InfoScan Census. IRI Consulting provides strategic insights and advice leveraging a variety of data sources, predictive analytics, enabling technologies, and business analyses to help FMCG manufacturers and retailers address significant sales and marketing issues effectively. FOR MORE INFORMATION Please contact Sarah Pittock, Insight Director, Business Insights, IRI at Desa.Griffiths@iriworldwide.com or +44 (0) with questions or comments about this report. About IRI. IRI is a leader in delivering powerful market and shopper information, predictive analysis and the foresight that leads to action. We go beyond the data to ignite extraordinary growth for our clients in the CPG, retail and overthe-counter healthcare industries by pinpointing what matters and illuminating how it can impact their businesses across sales and marketing. Move your business forward at IRIworldwide.eu Arlington Square, Downshire Way, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 1WA, Tel +44 (0) Copyright 2015 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). All rights reserved. IRI, the IRI logo and the names of IRI products and services referenced herein are either trademarks or registered trademarks of IRI. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. 20