SURVEY REPORT. Leave or Remain in Iraq? Opinions and expectations for an Independent Kurdistan

Transcription

1 SURVEY REPORT Leave or Remain in Iraq? Opinions and expectations for an Independent Kurdistan 1

2 CONTENTS About the survey... 3 Respondents profile... 4 Question 1: Should the Kurdistan Region Remain a part of Iraq or leave Iraq?... 5 Question 2: In case the result of the referendum is in favor of Kurdistan, in your opinion, when should the of Kurdistan be declared?... 8 Question 3: In an independent Kurdistan, are you expecting to have more defense and security, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? Question 4: In an independent Kurdistan, are you expecting to have more economic ease, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? Question 5: In an independent Kurdistan, are you expecting to have more social benefits, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? Question 6: In an independent Kurdistan, are you expecting to have a better education, worse or the same as when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? What can explain the preferences of the population of the Kurdistan Region regarding the referendum for and the expectations for an independent Kurdistan? Conclusion

3 About the survey Open Think Tank is an independent, non-partisan organization based in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, with the aim to open and promote the dialogue, discussion, and various points of view on issues of current interest. The referendum for an Independent Kurdistan to be held on 25 th of September 2017 is an important issue not only for Iraq but for the entire region and the international community, as the vote for this referendum is a potential challenge to the current political map of the Middle East. This report presents the general results of a survey conducted by the Open Think Tank from 20 to 27 th of August 2017, through in-person interviews, in the three major governorates of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Duhok, Erbil, and Sulaymaniah. Besides the socio-demographic questions, the survey contains six core questions, which are detailed in this report. Important to notice that some major events have occurred on the political stage of the Kurdistan region since the conduction of this survey. One of these represents the change of official position of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan to support the referendum. Considering the core PUK voters reside in the Sulaymaniyah governorate, we expect for these results of this survey to have changed accordingly. However, this change can be documented only through an additional survey exercise. As this survey shows, the share of the population that desires an independent Kurdistan is overall very high, but fewer of the respondents think about the practicalities and policy details for the after- referendum. Regardless of the results of the upcoming voting on 25th of September, a broad discussion has to take place concerning the structure and content of a future Kurdish state, in agreement with all the population, including the diversity deriving from gender, education, ethnicity, religion, political party, province and governorate of belonging. We hereby thank all the people that have accepted to give us their time answering this survey and all the collaborators and partners that have made this survey possible. When citing these results, please use the following format: Open Think Tank: (2017) Leave or Remain in Iraq? A survey of opinions and policy expectations for an Independent Kurdistan. For the original survey data, analyses and further details, please contact Mohammedali Taha myt@ttopen.org, Angela Movileanu angela@ttopen.org or visit 3

4 Respondents profile A sample of 677 persons from the entire population of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (excluded the refugees and IDPs) has been interviewed. The sample allows a confidence level of 99% and a margin or error +/-5. Gender of respondents Sulaymaniah Erbil Duhok Female Male Age of respondents 65 or older 55 to 64 years 45 to 54 years 35 to 44 years 25 to 34 years 18 to 24 years Duhok Erbil Sulaymaniyah

5 Question 1: Should the Kurdistan Region Remain a part of Iraq or leave Iraq? Question: Should the Kurdistan Region Remain a part of Iraq or leave Iraq? Responses across the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Total number of respondents: 677 Question: Should the Kurdistan Region Remain a part of Iraq or leave Iraq? Responses by governorate. Total number of respondents: 677 Don't Know 7% Remain part of Iraq 17% Leave Iraq 76% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Leave Iraq Remain part of Iraq Don't Know Duhok Erbil Sulaymaniah At the moment when this survey has been conducted, more than three-quarters of the Kurdistan Region declared their willingness for the region to leave Iraq. 17% declared that Kurdistan should remain part of Iraq and 7% had no clear opinion about this question. The people that desire to leave Iraq are the striking majority of the Duhok governorate (91%), a majority of Erbil governorate (77%), and a majority stake with 52% in Sulaymaniyah governorate. The public that wants to remain in Iraq is in Sulaymaniyah -38%, Erbil - 17%, and 4% in Duhok. There is a share of people that are undecided are 10% in Sulaymaniyah, 7% in Erbil and 5% in Duhok. 5

6 Question: Should the Kurdistan Region Remain a part of Iraq or leave Iraq? Responses by age. Total number of respondents: 677 Question: Should the Kurdistan Region Remain a part of Iraq or leave Iraq? Responses by education. Total number of respondents: or older MA and PHD 55 to 64 years 45 to 54 years 35 to 44 years Don't Know Remain part of Iraq Leave Iraq University Institution High school Secondary Don't Know Remain part of Iraq Leave Iraq 25 to 34 years Elementary 18 to 24 years No Education When analyzed by age, data shows the older people are more propense to answer that the Kurdistan Region should remain a part of Iraq: more than 70% of the respondents aged 18-44, while more than 90% of the respondents aged 65 or more declare that the region should leave Iraq. The data represent the results within each education category. When compared by education, there are no variations among the responses to the question if the Kurdistan Region should remain a part of Iraq or leave. This implies that the level of education is not a predictor for the answers to this question. 6

7 Question: Should the Kurdistan Region remain a part of Iraq or leave Iraq? Responses by gender. Total number of respondents: 360 Question: Should the Kurdistan Region remain a part of Iraq or leave Iraq? Responses by gender. Total number of respondents: 317 Women Men 10% 3% 13% Leave Iraq 22% Leave Iraq Remain part of Iraq Remain part of Iraq 76% Don't Know 75% Don't Know There are some gender differences in the results: while 22% of the men declared that they want to stay as a part of the state of Iraq, only 13% of women share the same opinion. The difference of 10% of women declares that they don t know. This group of women that do not have a clear position levitate around 10% and will be noticed in the answers to the other questions later on in this report. 7

8 Question 2: In case the result of the referendum is in favor of Kurdistan, in your opinion, when should the of Kurdistan be declared? Question: In case the result of the referendum is in favor of Kurdistan, in your opinion, When should the of Kurdistan be declared? (Total number of respondents: 677) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Immediately after the referendum To discuss the issue with Iraq Wait for the reactions and approvals of the international community and then act accordingly Don't Know Duhok Erbil Sulaymaniah The results of the question In case the result of the referendum is in favor of Kurdistan, in your opinion, when should the of Kurdistan be declared? shows that the population of Duhok and Erbil agree to declare the right after the referendum: 55% in Duhok and 50% in Erbil, and only 23% in the Sulaymaniyah governorate. At the same time, a quarter of the populations of the three governorates believe that it is better to wait for reactions and approvals from the international community. Less than 10% in Erbil and Duhok believe that the issue should be discussed with Iraq, versus 32% in Sulaymaniyah. A share of 20% of the population in Sulaymaniyah did not have an opinion regarding this question. 8

9 Question: In case the result of the referendum is in favor of Kurdistan, in your opinion, when should the of Kurdistan be declared? Responses by gender. Total number of female respondents: 360 Question: In case the result of the referendum is in favor of Kurdistan, in your opinion, when should the of Kurdistan be declared? Responses by gender. Total number of male respondents: 317 Women Immediately after the referendum Men Immediately after the referendum 22% To discuss the issue with Iraq 8% To discuss the issue with Iraq 24% 9% 45% Wait for the reactions and approvals of the international community and then act accordingly Don't Know 28% 18% 46% Wait for the reactions and approvals of the international community and then act accordingly Don't Know While there are no differences between men and women answering that the should be declared immediately after the referendum, 9% more of the men think that the matter should be discussed with Iraq, while 22% of women are not decided over the matter. 9

10 Question 3: In an independent Kurdistan, are you expecting to have more defense and security, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? Are you expecting to have more defense and security, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? (Total number of respondents: 678) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Yes, the people of Kurdistan will have more defence and security than before No, Kurdistan will have less defence and security than before. It will stay the same as before Duhok Erbil Sulaymaniah How much defense and security is the population of the KRI xpecting to have in an independent Kurdistan? Duhok and Erbil opulation are more optimistic, with over 50% in Erbil and 74% in uhok expecting a better defense and security in an independent region. On the contrary, the population of Sulaymaniah expects less security - 43% believing that the defense and security will be less than when it was part of Iraq, and 34% believe there will be more security in an independent Kurdistan. 10

11 are you expecting to have more defense and security, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? Responses by gender. Total number of female respondents: 359 are you expecting to have more defense and security, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? Responses by gender. Total number of male respondents: 319 9% 18% Women 57% Yes, the people of Kurdistan will have more defence and security than before No, Kurdistan will have less defence and security than before. It will stay the same 12% 8% Men 56% Yes, the people of Kurdistan will have more defence and security than before No, Kurdistan will have less defence and security than before. It will stay the same 16% 25% More than 55% of men and women expect that in an independent Kurdistan, there will be more defense and security in the Kurdistan Region than while being part of Iraq. 25% of men think that there will be less defense and security, versus 16% of women that think the same, while 9% of women are not decided over the matter. 11

12 Question 4: In an independent Kurdistan, are you expecting to have more economic ease, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? are you expecting to have more economic ease, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? (Total number of respondents: 677) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Duhok Erbil Sulaymaniah 0% Yes, the people of Kurdistan will have more economic ease than before No, Kurdistan will have less economic ease than before. It will stay the same as before The majority of the Duhok and Erbil population expect more economic ease in an independent Kurdistan. In Sulaymaniyah 52% believe that the economic ease will be less than before, while 30% believe there will be more economic ease in an independent Kurdistan. The percentages of those that have not an idea on the matter go from 13% in Sulaymaniyahand 18% in Duhok. 12

13 are you expecting to have more economic ease, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? Responses by gender. Total number of female respondents: 359 are you expecting to have more economic ease, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? Responses by gender. Total number of male respondents: 318 Women 19% Yes, the people of Kurdistan will have more economic ease than before No, Kurdistan will have less economic ease than before. Men 7% 12% Yes, the people of Kurdistan will have more economic ease than before No, Kurdistan will have less economic ease than before. 12% 53% It will stay the same 47% It will stay the same 14% 33% Regarding the expected economic ease in an independent Kurdistan, 47% of men declare that they expect more economic ease and 33% of men expect less economic ease. The share of women varies drastically in this matter: 53% believe in more economic ease in an independent Kurdistan, versus 14% of women that believe there will be less economic ease. There is a 7% difference between men and women that still have not decided on the matter. 13

14 Question 5: In an independent Kurdistan, are you expecting to have more social benefits, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? are you expecting to have more social benefits, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? (Total number of respondents: 678) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Duhok Erbil Sulaymaniah 0% Yes, the people of Kurdistan will have more social benebits than before. No, Kurdistan will have less economic ease than before. The social benebits remain the same as before Same results are valid for the matters related to social benefits in an independent Kurdistan when compared by governorates: Duhok and Erbil expect better social benefits, while Sulaymaniah is divided: 34% expect more social benefits and 38% expect less social benefits in an independent Kurdistan. 14

15 are you expecting to have more social benefits, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? Responses by gender. Total number of female respondents: 360 are you expecting to have more social benefits, the same or less then when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? Responses by gender. Total number of male respondents: % 14% 15% Women 54% Yes, the people of Kurdistan will have more social benebits than before. No, Kurdistan will have less economic ease than before. The social benebits remain the same as before 11% 26% 12% Men 50% Yes, the people of Kurdistan will have more social benebits than before. No, Kurdistan will have less economic ease than before. The social benebits remain the same as before Majority of men and women expect more social benefits in an independent Kurdistan: 50% of men and 54% of women. More men than women believe the social benefits will be less than before: 26% men vs. 15% women. 15

16 Question 6: In an independent Kurdistan, are you expecting to have a better education, worse or the same as when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? are you expecting to have a better education, worse or the same as when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? (Total number of respondents: 679) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Yes, the people of Kurdistan will have more education than before. No, Kurdistan will have less education than before. The education will remain the same as before. Duhok Erbil Sulaymaniah When it comes to education policy, Duhok and Erbil population expect in a vast majority that the education will be better in a future independent Kurdistan. Important to notice the results for Sulaymaniah, where more people expect a worse education than while being part of Iraq. 16

17 are you expecting to have a better education, worse or the same as when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? Responses by gender. Total number of female respondents: 360 are you expecting to have a better education, worse or the same as when Kurdistan was part of Iraq? Responses by gender. Total number of male respondents: 319 Women 14% 15% 15% 56% Yes, the people of Kurdistan will have more education than before. No, Kurdistan will have less education than before. The education will remain the same as before. 16% 25% Men 7% 52% Yes, the people of Kurdistan will have more education than before. No, Kurdistan will have less education than before. The education will remain the same as before. Majority of men and women expect a better education in an independent Kurdistan. Still, more men than women believe the education will be less: 25% men vs. 15% women. 15% believe the education will be the same. 7% more women than men are undecided. 17

18 What can explain the preferences of the population of the Kurdistan Region regarding the referendum for and the expectations for an independent Kurdistan? While searching for explanations for preference formation among the population of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to the general question for Kurdistan to remain a part of Iraq, or leave Iraq, there are a few factors that influence the results. These are the following: the governorate of belonging, political party, and age (see in yellow the significant correlations between the variables). Education Governorate Gender Ethnicity Age Political Party 1. Should the Kurdistan Region remain a part of Iraq or leave? 2. In case the result of the referendum is in favor of Kurdistan, in your opinion, when should the of Kurdistan be declared? 3. Expectations for policy areas to improve in a future independent Kurdistan *.162** **.165**.320** ** -.140** ** * ** **.315**.451** Table: Spearman s rho bivariate one-tailed correlations, variables influencing the preferences and expectations for the Independence of Kurdistan. The higher the number, the bigger the correlation. 18

19 The decision regarding the timing of declaration of in case the result of the referendum is in favor of Kurdistan is influenced by some of the following factors: education, governorate of belonging, gender and political party (see in green the significant correlations between the variables). Expectations for policy areas to improve in a future independent Kurdistan depend upon more factors then the easier question of to stay or leave Iraq. The governorate and the political party are the best predictors, however, these are completed by such factors as level of age, education, gender, and ethnicity (see in blue the significant correlations between the variables). Conclusion As seen from these results, the number of those that want the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to become an independent state is higher than the number of those that expect a better security, economy, social benefits and education in an independent Kurdistan. This proves that the decision to leave Iraq is an old desiderate of the Kurdish population of Iraq, and goes beyond any policy expectations. Despite the results of the upcoming referendum on 25 th of September, a deeper discussion has to take place regarding the structure and shape of a Kurdish state agreed by all the population, regardless of gender, education, ethnicity, religion, political party, province and governorate of belonging. How does the new state have to be and look like? How inclusive will it be and what constitutional and legal mechanisms will there be in place? What political, economic, social, cultural etc. orders will the new state build and how much difference will it make when compared to the status quo? 19