T21 Benchmark Polling

Transcription

1 T21 Benchmark Polling Three key marginal seats January 22, 2018

2 Methodology The sample comprised n=1,051 voters from 3 marginal State seats in South Australia: Hartley (n=351) Hurtle Vale (n=350) Mawson (n=350) The survey was conducted using Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI). All interviewing was conducted between January To ensure the final sample is representative of the population across the three marginal seats, quotas were set for age, gender and location and the final data was post-weighted by seat using the latest ABS population estimates. 2

3 T21 enjoys strong support in South Australia The polling found strong support for raising the minimum age for buying cigarettes to 21 years in pivotal marginal seats in South Australia. There was majority support for change in all seats and across the demographics. Support was higher among those aged years (82%) and those 70+ years (85%). While support for raising the smoking age is higher among non-smokers (79%), crucially, a majority of smokers do support it (58%) while just a third (32%) of smokers oppose it. Politically, Liberal supporters were the most supportive (81%) followed closely by SA Best (77%) and Labor supporters (74%). About a fifth of soft voters say that they would be much more likely to vote for a party that introduced T21. 3

4 4 Key Metrics

5 Support for T21 in SA marginal seats Three quarters (76%) of voters in the marginal SA seats polled support raising the minimum age for buying cigarettes in South Australia to 21 years Total Support 76% 56% Total Oppose 18% 20% 9% 9% 6% Strongly oppose Somewhat oppose Somewhat support Strongly support Don't know 5 Base: Total; n=1,051 B2. The current legal age for buying cigarettes in South Australia is 18 years old. There is a proposal to raise the minimum age for buying cigarettes to 21 years old. Would you support or oppose this change?

6 Support for raising the minimum age for buying cigarettes in South Australia to 21 years by demographic Demographic Support Oppose Men Women years Demographic Support Oppose Hartley Hurtle Vale Mawson Smokers Non-smokers Demographic Support Oppose Labor Liberal SA Best The Greens Other Base: Total; n=1,051 B2. The current legal age for buying cigarettes in South Australia is 18 years old. There is a proposal to raise the minimum age for buying cigarettes to 21 years old. Would you support or oppose this change?

7 7 Message Testing

8 Perceptions of strength of messages in support of T21 The strongest messages in support of T21 are Every year smoking kills 15,000 Australians and 95% of adult smokers start smoking under the age of 21 years TOTAL Strong (%) Every year smoking kills 15,000 Australians % of adult smokers start smoking under the age of If you can stop someone from smoking before 21, then research suggests they are unlikely ever to start Smoking costs taxpayers $31 billion per year and the Government only gets back $10 billion in taxes from tobacco companies Very strong Somewhat strong Somewhat weak Very weak Don't know 8 Base: Total; n=1,051 B3. I m now going to read some arguments in favour of making this change. For each, please tell me whether you think the argument is a strong or weak one?

9 9 Political Impact

10 A fifth of soft voters say they would be much more likely to vote for a party that supports T21 Political Impact: Much more likely Somewhat more likely Makes no difference Somewhat less likely Much less likely Don't know Soft voters Labor voters Liberal voters As a rule of thumb, somewhat more/less likely should be ignored when measuring real world political impact. This means net impact consists of those who say it makes them much more likely to vote for a party minus those who say it makes them much less likely to vote for a party SA Best voters Green voters Other voters B4. Would you be more likely or less likely to support a political party that supported this change? 10

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