Aspects of Affective Forecasting

Transcription

1 Aspects of Affective Forecasting Then: The Peak-End Model of Memory for Experienced Utility Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 11/21/2017: Lecture 09-1 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I wrote to help me create the slides. The macros aren t needed to view the slides. You can disable or delete the macros without any change to the presentation.

2 Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Definition of Affective Forecasting 2 Outline Affective forecasting - what is it? Examples of affective forecasting Focusing illusion Impact bias Duration bias Immune neglect Integration of pain and pleasure over time: The Peak-End Model of Experienced Utility Lecture probably ends here Time permitting: Empathy gaps in affective forecasting

3 Affective Forecasting Affective forecasting: Predicting how you will feel about an outcome or experience. Same Slide with Possible Answers to the Question: Why Affective Forecasting is Difficult? Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 3

4 Affective Forecasting: Why Is It Difficult? Affective forecasting: Predicting how you will feel about an outcome or experience. Why do people have difficulty with affective forecasting? People have incomplete or inaccurate self-theories. Response to novel experiences is hard to anticipate. Affective set point overall happiness/unhappiness is determined by internal personal factors. People sometimes fail to take this into account. People are unaware of the influence of cognitive factors: Focusing illusion & impact bias Duration neglect, immune neglect Focusing Illusion - Definition and Example Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 4

5 Focusing Illusion Focusing illusion if attention is focused on some but not all of the attributes (aspects/issues) of an option, these attributes are likely to be overweighted in predictions of affect. Example: Schwarz et al. asked 2 questions to college students: (i) How happy are you? (ii) How many dates did you have last month? Correlation between answers was.12 when asked in the order (i), then (ii). Correlation between answers was.66 when asked in the order (ii), then (i). Focalism - Definition Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 5

6 Focusing Illusion Focusing illusion if attention is focused on some but not all of the attributes (aspects/issues) of an option, these attributes are likely to be overweighted in predictions of affect. Focalism: The tendency to exaggerate the effect of circumstances when we predict the effect of these circumstances.. Anticipated Quality of Life in Midwest or California Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 6

7 Is Life Better in California (or Does It Just Look That Way)? Schkade & Kahneman (1998): S&K Subjects were 992 students at midwestern universities and 1,002 students at southern California universities. Dependent Variables: Rate importance of a series of dimension for yourself and for someone like you who attends University X. X = a California university for a midwestern student and a midwestern university for a California student. Dimensions: Job prospects, academic opportunities, financial situation, personal safety, outdoor activities, weather,... These ratings are used to determine the students theory of what determines life satisfaction. Rate overall quality of life for self and for someone like you who attends University X. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Graph of Importance of Dimensions 7

8 Results for Importance of Dimensions Schkade & Kahneman, Figure 2 Midwestern and California students had similar importance ratings. Notice: Job Prospects & Academic Opportunity rated much more important for well-being than weather. Results for Michigan/California Quality of Life on Various Dimensions Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 8

9 Results for Quality of Life on Various Dimensions Schkade & Kahneman (1998): S&K Rated Quality of Non-Weather Dimensions: California Midwest differences were small or zero Non-Weather Dimensions: Job prospects, academic opportunity, financial situation, personal safety, social life, outdoor activities, natural beauty, cultural opportunities Rated Quality of Weather Dimension: California Midwest difference was very large, (Both California and midwest students agreed that California had much better weather.) Weather Dimensions: Overall climate, summer weather, winter weather Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Results for Actual and Predicted Satisfaction of Living in Midwest or California 9

10 Results for Actual & Predicted Satisfaction Schkade & Kahneman (1998): S&K Actual Satisfaction: Cal and midwest students were equally satisfied with life; Predicted Satisfaction for Someone like Them in the Other Region: Both groups predict that "someone like them" would be more satisfied if living in California. Mediation analysis shows that weather accounts for rated difference in life quality in midwest and California. S&K s Interpretation: People suffer from a focusing illusion; Weather is salient in the comparison of California versus the Midwest. the true impact of weather on satisfaction is much less than its predicted impact. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Women s Predictions About the Impact of Wealth on Mood 10

11 Women s Predictions About the Impact of Wealth on Mood Kahneman, D., Krueger, A. B., Schkade, D., Schwarz, N., & Stone, A. A. (2006). Would you be happier if you were richer? A focusing illusion. Science, 312, Participants were working women. Between subjects design. Questions Asked: (a) (b) stated the percentage of time they were in a bad mood on the preceding day, and... predicted the percentage of time in a bad mood experienced by a woman similar to themselves who had high incomes or low incomes. (Similar question for married/single, health insurance/no health insurance,...) Since some of the women did have income < $20,000 or > $100,000, or were alone or married, etc., we also have the actual self-rating of time in a bad mood. How Would You Feel If You Were? - Results UW Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 11

12 Women s Predictions About the Impact of Wealth on Mood N > 59 in all cases Results for Household Income Actual Difference = = 12.2 Predicted Difference = = 32.0 Same Slide with All Results Displayed UW Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 12

13 Women s Predictions About the Impact of Wealth on Mood N > 59 in all cases In general, ACTUAL difference < PREDICTED difference The contrast between good and bad circumstances was exaggerated. (Good and bad circumstances do have an effect, but not as much as predicted.) Result explained by focalism we exaggerate the predicted effects of variables that we focus on. Same Slide with No Emphasis Rectangles UW Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 13

14 Women s Predictions About the Impact of Wealth on Mood N > 59 in all cases In general, ACTUAL difference < PREDICTED difference The contrast between good and bad circumstances was exaggerated. (Good and bad circumstances do have an effect, but not as much as predicted.) Result explained by focalism we exaggerate the predicted effects of variables that we focus on. Same Slide with Sample Sizes Added to It UW Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 14

15 A Note re Sample Sizes for this Study N > 59 in all cases Sample sizes were large enough to produce reliable results. Sample Sizes Actual Predicted Focusing Illusion Summary - END UW Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 15

16 Focusing Illusion - Summary Focusing on any one aspect of a larger situation exaggerates its impact on the hedonic response to the situation. "Nothing in life is quite as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it." Schkade and Kahneman (1998) We often focus on changes. Hence, we often exaggerate the impact of changes. Distinguish between the short-term and long-term impact of changes. Long-term impact of changes is the experience of a stable, non-changing state (more or less). Focusing illusion is relevant when we attempt to anticipate the value of a change in circumstance. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Impact Bias, Durability Bias, & Immune Neglect 16

17 Impact Bias, Durability Bias, & Immune Neglect Impact bias overestimation of the intensity and duration of affect following a salient event. Durability bias: We think that events will have longer lasting emotional impacts than they do. Immune neglect: We tend to overlook circumstances that help us to adjust to major changes Examples Students overestimate how unhappy they would be 2 months after the break up of a romantic relationship. Professors overestimate how unhappy they would be 5 years after being denied tenure. Why do these effects happen? Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 17

18 What Could Cause Impact Bias and Durability Bias Focalism focusing illusion exaggerates impact of a focal event. People confuse the initial short-term emotional impact of an event with its long-term effect. How would you feel about breaking up with X right after breaking up? How would you feel three months later? Immune neglect: Underestimation of personal adaptation Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 18

19 Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response, i.e., It Delays Adaptation Wilson, T. D., Centerbar, D. B., Kermer, D. A., & Gilbert, D. T. (2005). The pleasures of uncertainty: Prolonging positive moods in ways people do not anticipate. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 88(1), Experimenter 1 approaches student in library. Gives him/her a $1 coin plus the top card (condition 1) or the bottom card (condition 2). What Happens Next in this Experiment Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 19

20 Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response, i.e., It Delays Adaptation Wilson, T. D., Centerbar, D. B., Kermer, D. A., & Gilbert, D. T. (2005). The pleasures of uncertainty: Prolonging positive moods in ways people do not anticipate. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 88(1), Experimenter 1 approaches student in library. Gives him/her a $1 coin plus the top card (condition 1) or the bottom card (condition 2). 5 minutes later, Experimenter 2 approaches same student and gives him/her a questionnaire: Subjects rate their global mood, and particular moods like cheerfulness, frustration, etc.). Hypotheses For This Experiment Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 20

21 Main Hypothesis: Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response, i.e., It Delays Adaptation Top card Unclear about reasons for this experience (receiving $1). Subjects receiving top card will be uncertain about the experience (what just happened?). Bottom card More clear about reasons for the experience. Uncertainty prolongs the emotional state created by the experience. Therefore 5 minutes later, subjects receiving the top card (condition 1) should rate themselves as being in a better mood, happier, etc., than people in condition 2. Results of the Experiment Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 21

22 Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response, i.e., It Delays Adaptation Results: Participants who received the top card were in better moods than people who received the bottom card. Uncertainty about how to interpret an experience prolongs the emotional response to the experience. Why? Emotional response to experience is maintained while the cognitive interpretation of the experience is incomplete. Uncertainty forces deeper cognitive processing of the experience, or at least, continued cognitive processing of the experience. Should We Practice Random Acts of Kindness? Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 22

23 Bumper Sticker: "Practice Random Acts of Kindness!" Quotation from Wikipedia article ( ) "The phrase "Practice random kindness and senseless acts of beauty" may have been coined by peace activist Anne Herbert. Herbert says she wrote it on a place mat at a Sausalito restaurant in 1982 or 1983." [italics & boldface added] Alternative version: "Practice random acts of kindness and senseless acts of beauty" Is this an effective strategy? Colostomy Study: Uncertainty Can Prevent Adaptation Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 23

24 Adaptation: Colostomy Example From Wikipedia ( downloaded 11/24/09). A colostomy is a surgical procedure that involves connecting a part of the colon onto the anterior [front] abdominal wall, leaving the patient with an opening on the abdomen called a stoma.... After a colostomy, feces leave the patient's body through the abdomen. A colostomy may be permanent or temporary, depending on the reasons for its use. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Experimental Demo That Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response 24

25 Colostomy Study & Psychological Adaptation Two types of colostomy patients: a) Those who know that this is a permanent health outcome. b) Those who still have a chance that they will recover and no longer need the external waste bag Only the first group (a) shows adaptation (quality of life returns to pre-colonoscopy levels). Group (b) does not adapt. Message 1: Get over it and move on! Message 2: Hope has a downside. (Smith et al., The dark side of hope, 2007) How Can We Improve Our Ability to Predict Our Emotions? Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 25

26 How can we improve our ability to anticipate our own feelings? Avoid focalism look at the big picture. Distinguish between: how we would feel immediately after an event or learning about an outcome, and... how we would feel after some time has passed and we have adjusted to the new state of things. Remember that we can adapt to a new situation (provided that we are in the right frame of mind to do so). Remember that uncertainty can prolong (and intensify?) the pleasure or pain of an experience. Some Questions About Feelings Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 26

27 Some Questions about Feelings Falling in love is a stronger emotional experience than being in love. Why? Worry & anxiety negative responses to uncertainty. Example: Waiting for the results of a medical test. Savoring and anticipation: The pleasure of looking forward to a pleasant event. References Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 27

28 References Gilbert, D. T. (2006). Stumbling on happiness. New York: Knopf. Writing style sounds casual, but the quality of scholarship is high. Other References Brickman, P., Coates, D., & Janoff-Bulman, R. (1978). Lottery winners and accident victims: Is happiness relative? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, Gilbert, D. T., & Ebert, J. E. J. (2002). Decisions and revisions: The affective forecasting of changeable outcomes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 82, Gilbert, D.T., Pinel, E.C., Wilson, T.C., Blumberg, S.J., & Wheatley, T.P. (1998). Immune neglect: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75, Mellers, B.A., & McGraw, A.P. (2001). Anticipated emotions as guides to choice. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 10, Schkade, D.A., & Kahneman, D. (1998). Does living in California make people happy? Psychological Science, 9, Schwarz, N. (1996). Cognition and communication: judgmental biases, research methods, and the logic of conversation. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Wilson,T.D., & Gilbert, D.T. (2003). Affective forecasting. In M.P. Zanna (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 35, pp ). San Diego, CA: Academic Press. Decision Utility versus Experienced Utility Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 28

29 Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Graphical Representation of Sequences of Pain or Pleasure 29 Decision Utility versus Experienced Utility Decision Utility: Judgments made prior to or at the time of a decision regarding the utility of future outcomes. Experienced Utility: Judgments made during or after the experience of an outcome regarding the value of the outcome. Next: How do we evaluate the experienced utility of pain and pleasure that is experienced over time.

30 Pleasure Pain Pleasure Pain Which Sequence Will Be Remembered as More Pleasurable or Painful? Amount of Pleasure Over Time Amount of Pain Over Time A C Time Time Amount of Pleasure Over Time Amount of Pain Over Time B D Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Same Slide without the Red Lines 30

31 Pleasure Pain Pleasure Pain Which Sequence Will Be Remembered as More Pleasurable or Painful? Amount of Pleasure Over Time Amount of Pain Over Time A C Time Time Amount of Pleasure Over Time Amount of Pain Over Time B D Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Claims of the Peak-End Model 31

32 Pleasure Pain Claims of the Peak-End Model for Experienced Utility Amount of Pleasure Over Time Amount of Pain Over Time A C Time Time Memories of pleasure or pain are dominated by... the peak of the experience (the best or the worst moment) and... the end of the experience (how you felt right before the end of the experience). The memory of pain or pleasure is not a summary of the moment-bymoment experience. The memory of the pain or pleasure does not integrate the total pain or total pleasure of the experience Experimental Studies of the Peak-End Model - Colonoscopy Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 32

33 Peak-End Model: Colonoscopy Example Redelmeier, D., & Kahneman, D. (1996). Patients' memories of painful medical treatments: Real-time and retrospective evaluations of two minimally invasive procedures. Pain, 66, 3 8. Colonoscopy: Endoscopic examination of the colon by means of a fiber optic or CCD camera attached to a flexible tube that is passed through the anus. ( 11/25/2008) Patient may be partially sedated. Depending on sedation, patient may feel considerable discomfort and pain, and remember these feelings. Design of Colonoscopy Study Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 33

34 Peak-End Model: Colonoscopy Example Redelmeier, D., & Kahneman, D. (1996). Patients' memories of painful medical treatments: Real-time and retrospective evaluations of two minimally invasive procedures. Pain, 66, 3 8. Affect Meter: Hand-held device used to record patient s rating of current pain. Patients made pain ratings once per minute. Figure to the right: Pain ratings of patients A and B. After the procedure was over, patient rated overall discomfort. one month later, patient again rated overall discomfort. physician was asked to predict how a patient would rate the overall discomfort. Results of Colonoscopy Study Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 34

35 Peak-End Model: Colonoscopy Example Redelmeier, D., & Kahneman, D. (1996). Patients' memories of painful medical treatments: Real-time and retrospective evaluations of two minimally invasive procedures. Pain, 66, 3 8. Possible predictors of overall pain: Peak pain pain at the worst moment End pain pain at the end of the procedure Total pain area under the curve of the pain profile Average pain average pain over all ratings Duration of pain duration of any painful experience RESULTS Overall pain was predicted by peak pain and end pain. Other variables (total pain, average pain, duration of pain) added very little to the predictability of overall pain. Follow Up Study With Random Assignment to Short & Long Procedures Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 35

36 Peak-End Model: Another Colonoscopy Study Redelmeier, D. A., Katz, J., & Kahneman, D. (2003). Memories of colonoscopy: A randomized trial. Pain, 104, Similar to previous study except this study had an additional experimental condition. Colonoscopy patients were randomly assigned to a short or long procedure. Short Procedure: The standard colonoscopy. Long Procedure: The standard colonoscopy followed by a short period (approx. 3 minutes) during which the tip of the colonoscope remained in the rectum. This is uncomfortable but not as uncomfortable as the standard colonoscopy. Result: Patients who received the Long Procedure rated it as significantly less painful and overall less aversive than patients who received the Short Procedure. Fredrickson/Kahneman Video Clips Study Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 36

37 Peak-End Model: Video Clips Example Fredrickson, B. L., & Kahneman, D. (1993). Duration neglect in retrospective evaluations of affective episodes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, Subjects see video clips of pleasant (e.g., penguins playing) or unpleasant (e.g., an amputation) scenes. Each video clip has a long and short version (long version is 3 times longer than short version). As subject watches each video clip, subject rates moment-by-moment pleasure/pain on an affect meter (small device that records ratings from -7 = maximum pain, to +7 = maximum pleasure). Immediately after end of each video clip, subject rates global pleasure/pain. Results for Video Clips Example Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 37

38 Peak-End Model: Results for Video Clips Example Question: Is global pleasure/pain a weighted sum of every moment of pleasure/pain, or is it only a function of the peak and end pleasure/pain? Answer: Global pleasure/pain is predicted by peak and end only. Temporary Summary of Peak-End Model Results Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 38

39 Claims of the Peak-End Model for Experienced Utility Memories of pleasure or pain are dominated by... the peak of the experience (the best or the worst moment) and... the end of the experience (how you felt right before the end of the experience). The memory of pain or pleasure is not a summary of the moment-bymoment experience. In particular, total pain is not an important predictor. duration of pain is not an important predictor. Yes, but. do ratings really predict decisions (choice behavior)? As shown by the colonoscopy studies of Redelmeier & Kahneman (1996) and Fredrickson & Kahneman (1993). Would you get the same result if people had to choose between a shorter and longer experience that were matched for peak and duration? Choice Study Painful Arm Study Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 39

40 Peak-End Model: The Painful Arm Experiment Fact: It can be quite painful to have your arm submerged in cold water for some length of time. Day 1: Subjects either do Short Condition 1st, and Long Condition 2nd, or vice versa. Short Condition: Subjects have left or right arm submerged in 57 F water for 60 seconds. Long Condition: Subjects have opposite arm submerged in 57 F water for 60 seconds, followed by 30 second period when the temperature increases by 1 degree per second. After performing on Day 1, subjects are given choice to repeat the Short Condition or the Long Condition on Day 2. Which Condition will subjects prefer to repeat on Day 2? Results of Painful Arm Experiment Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 40

41 Results: The Painful Arm Experiment Results: 22 of 32 (69%) preferred to repeat the Long Condition. During the Long Condition, some subjects reported no improvement (no improvement subjects) and others reported at least 2 rating points of improvement (improvement subjects). 17 of 21 (81%) "improvement" subjects chose the Long Condition. 6 of 11 (55%) "no improvement" subjects chose the Long Condition. Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Summary of Peak-End Model Results - Possible END 41

42 Claims of the Peak-End Model for Experienced Utility Memories of pleasure or pain are dominated by... the peak of the experience (the best or the worst moment) and... the end of the experience (how you felt right before the end of the experience). The memory of pain or pleasure is not a summary of the momentby-moment experience. In particular, total pain is not an important predictor. duration of pain is not an important predictor. Discussion Question: Should you make choices that maximize your total pleasure or choices that maximize your remembered pleasure? Thanksgiving Day Suggestion Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 42

43 Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 Possible END Or Discuss Empathy Gaps 43 Enhancing Your Thanksgiving Day Experience # 1: Make sure that the best moment of the day is very good. # 2: Make sure to end the day on a good note.

44 Tuesday, 21 November, 2017: The Lecture Ended Here Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 44