Research Strategies: How Psychologists Ask and Answer Questions. Module 2
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1 Research Strategies: How Psychologists Ask and Answer Questions Module 2
2 How Do Psychologists Ask and Answer Questions? The Scientific Method Goals and Tools of Psychology Description Correlation Experimentation
3 . Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
4 Question (Write down your answer) Please rank the following statements by their probability, using 1 for the most probable and 8 for the least probable. (a) Linda is a teacher in elementary school. (b) Linda works in a bookstore and takes Yoga classes. (c) Linda is active in the feminist movement. (d) Linda is a psychiatric social worker. (e) Linda is a member of the League of Women Voters. (f) Linda is a bank teller. (g) Linda is an insurance sales person. (h) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement
5 Question (Write down your answer) If a test to detect a disease whose prevalence is 1/1000 has a false positive rate of 5%, what is the chance that a person found to have a positive result actually has the disease, assuming that you know nothing about the person's symptoms or signs? %
6 Bayes Theorem P(Disease Pos) = P(A B) = P(B A)P(A) P(B A)P(A)+ P(B nota)p(nota) P(Pos Disease)P(Disease) P(Pos Disease)P(Disease) + P(Pos Healthy)P(Healthy) Assume that the test is perfect and thus P(Pos Disease)=1 P(Disease Pos) = 1*.001 1* *.999 =.0196
7 Why Do Psychology? How can we differentiate between uniformed opinions and examined conclusions? The science of psychology helps make these examined conclusions, which leads to our understanding of how people feel, think, and act as they do!
8 What About Intuition & Common Sense? Many people believe that intuition and common sense are enough to bring forth answers regarding human nature. Intuition and common sense may aid queries, but they are not free of error. Personal interviewers may rely too much on their gut feelings when meeting with job applicants. Taxi/ Getty Images
9 Hindsight Bias and Overconfidence Hindsight Bias is the I- knew- it- all- along phenomenon. After learning the outcome of an event, many people believe they could have predicted that very outcome. Anything seems commonplace once explained. Overconfidence: Sometimes we think we know more than we actually know. Both hindsight bias and overconfidence lead us to overestimate our intuition.
10 Over-Confidence Subjects were asked factual questions such as: In each of the following pairs, which city has more inhabitants? (a) Las Vegas (b) Miami (a) Sydney (b) Melbourne (a) Hyderabad (b) Islamabad (a) Bonn (b) Heidelberg
11 Over-Confidence When subjects said they were 100% confident they were only 80% correct, when 90% they were only 70% correct,. This is a robust phenomenon observed even after warning people about it. It has been observed in diverse groups of occupations that include students, physicians, and analysts intelligence agencies. Does this sounds familiar?
12 The Scientific A\itude The scientific a\itude is composed of curiosity (passion for exploration), skepticism (doubting and questioning) and humility (ability to accept responsibility when wrong). Critical thinking does not accept arguments and conclusions blindly. It examines assumptions, evaluates evidence and assesses conclusions.
13 The Scientific Approach Most people have greater difficulty thinking of psychology and other behavioral sciences as science. In part this is because many people misunderstand what science is. Research involving molecules and chromosomes seems more scientific than research involving emotions, memories, or social interactions, for example. Whether an area of study is scientific has li\le to do with the topics it studies. Rather science is defined in terms of the approaches used to study the topic.
14 Can we study EVERYTHING scientifically? Is there life after death? Are there angels?
15 Solvable Problems Science only deals with solvable problems. Researchers can investigate only those questions that are answerable, given current knowledge and research techniques. In sum, to be considered scientific: 1. the questions addressed must be potentially solvable 2. observations must be systematic and empirical 3. research must be conducted in a manner that is publicly verifiable Pseudoscience involves evidence that masquerades as science but that fails to meet one or more of the three criteria used to define science.
16 How Do Psychologists Ask & Answer Questions? Psychologists, like all scientists, use the scientific method to construct theories that organize, summarize and simplify observations.
17 Theory A theory is an explanation that integrates principles and organizes and predicts behavior or events. For example: Social Learning Theory People learn through observing others'ʹ behavior.
18 Hypothesis A hypothesis is a testable prediction, often prompted by a theory, to enable us to accept, reject or revise the theory. For example: One hypothesis from the Social Learning Theory: People who watch violent films display more aggressive behavior.
19 Research Research would require us to administer surveys or experiments. For example: Conduct a research study to examine if there is a relationship between frequency of watching violent films and aggressive behaviors.
20 The Scientific Method Operational Definition a statement of procedures (operations) used to define research variables How you are going to measure aggression is your operational definition for aggression. Operational definition for violent films.
21 Example violent movies and aggression Hypothesis? There is a relationship between frequency of watching violent films and aggressive behaviors Operational definition of variables? Exposure to violent movies: number of times a person watches violent movies in a week in the last 3 months Aggression: Frequency of behavior that aims to harm other people.
22 Research Process (1) Theory: Social learning theory People learn through observing others' behavior. (3) Research and observations: Is there a relation between frequency of watching violent films and aggressive behaviors (2) Hypothesis: People who watch violent films display more aggressive behavior. 22
23 The Scientific Method Replication repeating the essence of a research study to see whether the basic finding extends to other participants and circumstances usually with different participants in different situations Example
24 Goals of Psychology 1. To describe behavior and mental processes 2. To predict behavior and mental processes 3. To explain and understand behavior and mental processes 4. To influence/control behavior and mental processes
25 Goals and Tools of Psychology Descriptive Methods 1. To describe human and animal behavior and mental processes Case study Surveys Observations (naturalistic or lab)
26 Descriptive Methods Case Study A technique in which one person is studied in depth to reveal underlying behavioral principles. Susan Kuklin/ Photo Researchers Example: Is language uniquely human?
27 Descriptive Methods Case Study Researchers make case studies to examine rare cases: Example: school shooting Case studies can suggest hypotheses for further studies. Problems: Cannot make generalizations. Conclusions can be misleading.
28 Descriptive Methods Survey A technique for ascertaining the self- reported a\itudes, opinions or behaviors of people (usually done by questioning a representative, random sample of people) Examples: Media surveys Koç University student satisfaction survey
29 Survey Wording Effects Wording can change the results of a survey. Q1: Should cigare\e ads be allowed on television? Q2: Should cigare\e ads be forbidden on television? (allowed vs. forbid)
30 Survey Random Sampling If each member of a population has an equal chance of inclusion into a sample, it is called a random sample (unbiased). If the survey sample is not random, the results may not be representative. Examples: Media surveys Koç University student satisfaction survey
31 Random Sampling Population all the cases in a group, from which samples may be drawn for a study Random Sample a sample that (fairly) represents a population because each member has an equal chance of inclusion Randomly pick from the student list
32 Random Sampling
33 Descriptive Methods Naturalistic Observation
34 Naturalistic Observation observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations (or in more controlled environments) without trying to manipulate and control the situation Examples: Descriptive Methods Observing and recording the behavior of animals in the wild Observing preschool children s social behaviors Recording self- seating pa\erns in a multi- racial school lunch room.
35 Descriptive Methods Summary 1. To describe human and animal behavior and mental processes Case study Surveys Observations (naturalistic/lab)
36 Goals of Psychology 2. To predict behaviors, thoughts, feelings, change and so on Mainly by way of assessing the relationship between two or more variables - Correlational studies
37 Definition of Variable Variable Any characteristic or a\ribute that varies in amount and kind Examples: Age Weight Height Self- esteem Reaction time in a learning experiment Stress level Achievement motivation
38 Correlation Prediction When one trait or behavior accompanies another, we say the two correlate. Indicates strength of relationship (0.00 to 1.00) Correlation coefficient r = Correlation Coefficient is a statistical measure of the relationship between two variables. Indicates direction of relationship (positive or negative)
39 Prediction Correlation Positive correlation: one variable inceases, the other one also increases, or vice versa. Example: r =.22 (age and intelligence) Negative correlation: one variable decreases, the other one increases. Example: r = -.85 (self- esteem and depression) 39
40 Correlation
41 Q: Which of the following correlation coefficients reflects the strongest correlation? A).10 B) -.64 C).35 D) -.10
42 Correlations do not permit inferring causality
43 Inferring Causality If we know that two variables are highly correlated, can we determine the causal relationship between them? Violence viewing Actualized violence OR Violence viewing Actualized violence Correlation does not mean causation! 43
44 A third variable could cause A and B: Instability at home Violence viewing Actualized violence 44
45 Another Example or 45
46 CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION In order to determine causality we must turn to experimental methods. 46
47 Goals of Psychology 3. To explain and understand behavior and mental processes Experimentation Like other sciences, experimentation is the backbone of psychological research. Experiments isolate causes and their effects. 47
48 Experimentation Experiment an investigator manipulates one or more factors (independent variables) to observe their effect on some behavior or mental process (the dependent variable). 48
49 Experimentation Independent Variable (IV) the experimental factor that is manipulated the variable whose effect is being studied Dependent Variable (DV) the experimental factor that may change in response to manipulations of the independent variable 49
50 Experimentation Watch violent films Aggressive behavior 50
51 Experimentation Experimental Condition the condition of an experiment that exposes participants to the treatment (to one version of the independent variable) Control Condition the condition of an experiment that does not expose participants to the treatment serves as a comparison for evaluating the effect of the treatment 51
52 Example: The Bobo Doll Experiment Participants: and 6- year- old children. The total of 72 children were split in to 2 groups. One group was put into an aggressive model scenario: the adult a\acked the Bobo doll by hi\ing it. Another group was used as a control group and not exposed to any adult model at all. 52
53 Example: The Bobo Doll Experiment Measure: The final stage of the experiment took place in a room in which the child was left alone for 20 min. with a series of aggressive and non- aggressive toys to play with. Results: Children exposed to the aggressive model were more likely to act in physically aggressive ways than those who were not exposed to the aggressive model. 53
54 Experimental Condition Watch violent model/movie Control Condition Watch nothing Measure aggressive behaviors Figure
55 Exploring Cause & Effect Many factors influence our behavior. Experiments (1) manipulate factors that interest us, while other factors are kept under (2) control. Effects generated by manipulated factors isolate cause and effect relationships. by random assignment of participants the experiment controls other relevant factors 55
56 Experimental Condition Watch violent movie Control Condition Watch nothing Measure aggressive behaviors Figure 7.1 Other variables here can be: socioeconomic background (income) 56 56
57 Experimentation Random Assignment assigning participants to experimental and control conditions by chance minimizes pre- existing differences between those assigned to the different groups 57
58 Experimentation Single- Blind Procedure the research participants are uninformed (blind) about what treatment, if any, they are receiving. Do antidepressant drugs really work? Placebos can have significant antidepressant effects To show superior efficacy to placebo 58
59 Experimentation Placebo an inert substance or condition that may be administered instead of a presumed active agent, to see if it triggers the effects believed to characterize the active agent. 59
60 Experimentation Double- Blind Procedure both the research participants and the research staff are ignorant (blind) about whether the research participants have received the treatment or a placebo commonly used in drug- evaluation studies 60
61 Another Example Study: One of the factors for prejudice is lack of knowledge about members of the other group Hypothesis: Watching a documentary film about the history of the outgroup will result in change in prejudice (reduce prejudice) IV DV Manipulation (Experimental stimulus) 61
62 62
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