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1 Xiangming Xiao Department of Botany and Microbiology Center for Spatial Analysis Geoinformatics University of Oklahoma, Norman

2 Integration of geo-, ecoand health informatics Geosciences Global land cover and land use change Land Water Atmosphere interaction Biological and ecological science Agriculture, forests, grassland Carbon and water fluxes Wild birds Health science Zoonotic infectious diseases H5N1 avian influenza Lyme disease Health science Biological science Geosciences

3 Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring, Diagnosis and Forecasting (TEMDaF) MODIS (2000- ) (day & 8-day) Landsat (TM/ETM+) L-band SAR (PALSAR) Radiative Transfer Model (PROSAIL 2) Chlorophyll, FPAR chl NPV (stem, cell wall) Leaf/canopy water Land surface phenology (deciduous/evergreen) (cropping intensity) NDVI EVI LSWI NDSI VPM Daily climate Daily climate VBEM Daily Gross Primary Production VETM CO 2, H 2 O flux tower Field observation Daily biogenic emissions Atmospheric chemistry model Annual GPP, NPP Climate model Hydrological model (e.g., WRF,RAMS,WBM) Land cover & land use change (C3, C4, deep root) (Irrigation, rice, and crops) Soils, fire, DEM, N deposition, CO 2, O 3 Daily transpiration and Process-based evapotranspiration biogeochemical model (e.g., DNDC) Daily R e, NEE, N 2 O, CH 4 VPM Vegetation Photosynthesis Model; VETM Vegetation EvapoTranspiration Model; VBEM Vegetation Biogenic Emission Model; PROSAIL 2 radiative transfer model

4 NASA Earth Remote Sensing Observatories GPM Earth Observing System (EOS) In 1991 NRC endorsed EOS plan ($30 billion, 20 years long) 4

5 Gross primary production of winter wheat and maize Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) MODIS land surface reflectance Air temperature, PAR Gross primary production (g C/m 2 /day) GPPest GPPpred Yuchen site, China (winter wheat - maize double cropping) 12/1/02 4/1/03 8/1/03 12/1/03 4/1/04 8/1/04 12/1/04 Year ( , 8-day interval)

6 Land use and land cover change in pan tropical zone Evergreen forest map in Tropical Asia --- Mapping evergreen forests in tropical Asia, using MODIS images at 500-m spatial resolution and 8-day temporal resolution.

7 Land use and land cover change in pan tropical zone Agricultural Intensification Mapping cropping intensity (number of crops per year in a unit land area), using MODIS images in 2001 at 500-m spatial resolution & 8-day temporal resolution

8 iland A cyber-linked environment for global land cover mapping (

9 Biological and ecological processes at different scales Temporal scale Pathogen, vector and hosts Globe Landscape Duck virus Spatial scale

10 Satellite observatories MODIS, Landsat, PALSAR, TRMM Satellite telemetry tracking of birds Ecology of HPAI Patterns, dynamics, variables Decision Support System cropping intensity & crop calendar wetlands, rainfall water bodies, irrigation, land surface temperature, snow, ice land primary production waterfowl migration, local movement Geospatial analysis Targeted surveillance Epidemiological models & risk assessment HPAI surveillance Outbreak location & time H5N1 GenBank data bird surveillance waterfowl migration, local movement poultry and livestock production agricultural statistical data human population In situ observatories GPS, GIS, Digital camera Spatially explicit epidemiological model Nowcast & Early Warning 2008 Risk maps likely hot spots & hot times Epidemic potential Distribution of persistence Socio economic models & risk assessment Response plan and control measures under different scenarios International FAO National Decision Support Tools Framework of observations, analysis and modeling

11 Ecology based Risk Assessment and Early Warning of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Asia Weather / Climate Integrated process study: Poyang lake, China Paddy rice fields Wild waterfowl flyway Poyang Lake, Qinghai Lake Migratory waterbirds AIV Natural wetlands Fish ponds AIV Free range ducks / geese Poultry Chicken, ducks AIV AIV Agricultural intensification Paddy rice Poultry & trade AIV Human population Wetlands Population

12 Epidemiology Identify hot spots and hot times of H5N1 HPAI Traditionally, free grazing duck system is closely coupled with multiple paddy rice cultivation, which provides foods and water year around for ducks. The paddy rice duck system dominate much of Southeast Asia countries.

13 Ecology & epidemiology of infectious diseases: Agricultural intensification Prediction of HPAI H5N1 virus relative risk of presence in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. model input data: chicken density, duck density, cropping intensity, human population, and elevation (from Gilbert and Xiao, et al., 2008, PNAS)

14 Ecology & epidemiology of infectious diseases: Agricultural Track migratory waterbirds through GPSintensification -based satellite telemetry W MONGOLIA 2008 E MONGOLIA 2006, 2008 KAZAKHSTAN QINGHAI 2007, 2008 EGYPT 2009 MALI 2007 N INDIA 2005 POYANG 2007 NEPAL 2005 NIGERIA 2007,2009 E INDIA 2008 HONG KONG 2008 S INDIA Prediction of HPAI H5N1 virus relative risk of presence in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. model input data: chicken density, duck density, cropping intensity, human population, and elevation (from Gilbert and Xiao, et al., 2008, PNAS)

15 Key Issues in Ecological Forecast Initial condition Model variables/structure Model parameters

16 (to build a Petascale Mass Storage System at OU) Earth Observation and Modeling Facility (EOMF) Computer servers (10+) (data processing server) (web server) Supercomputing facility at university Link Data ordering & archive (100 TB) Data processing & web service (250 TB) Data Analysis (50 TB) (1) Super computer (1040 CPU chips (quad core), 33.3 TFLOPs (2) Tape archive system (400 TB)

17 University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA