R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma

Transcription

1 R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma

2 Overview of river, tributaries and water structures feeding Hawizeh marsh Upper Zone until Iraq border Proposed dam Current dam 1 Legend tigris_dams <all other values> Type Û Barrage 2!( Dam #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator $+ planned dam 3

3 Middle Zone until 1 2 Legend tigris_dams <all other values> Type Û Barrage!( Dam #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator $+ planned dam 3

4 Lower Zone until Hawizeh Marsh 1 2 Legend tigris_dams <all other values> Type Û Barrage!( Dam #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator 3

5 1/1/1982 8/1/1982 3/1/ /1/1 5/1/ /1/1 7/1/1985 2/1/1986 9/1/1986 4/1/ /1/1 6/1/1988 1/1/1989 8/1/1989 3/1/ /1/1 5/1/ /1/1 7/1/1992 2/1/1993 9/1/1993 4/1/ /1/1 6/1/1995 1/1/1996 8/1/1996 3/1/ /1/1 5/1/ /1/1 7/1/1999 2/1/2000 9/1/2000 4/1/ /1/2002 1/1/2003 8/1/2003 3/1/ /1/2 5/1/ /1/2 7/1/2006 2/1/2007 9/1/2007 4/1/ /1/2009 1/1/2010 8/1/2010 Flow (cms) Average monthly flow (mcm) Flow into Hawizeh marsh from River 2500 ha, 5900 mcm % Exceedance Flow without dam flow

6 Annual Water budgets in 80 s Kutt Barrage Average 80 s Low 80 s 7500 High 80 s Greater zab 5500 Greater zab 16000Greater zab 7000Lesser Zab Lesser Zab Lesser Zab All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm

7 Annual Water budgets in 90 s until Kutt Barrage Average 90 s Low 90 s 2500 High 90 s Greater zab 3400 Greater zab 6000 Greater zab Lesser Zab Lesser Zab Lesser Zab All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm

8 Annual Water budgets in 2000 s Kutt Barrage Average 2000 s Low 2000 s 6000 High 2000 s Greater zab 3000 Greater zab 6500 Greater zab 1000Lesser Zab Lesser Zab 2000 Lesser Zab All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm

9 Percentage based on channel capacities Average 80 s Annual Water budgets below Kutt Barrage 60% % Low 80 s High 80 s % Average 90 s Low 90 s High 90 s Average 2000 s 4800 Low 2000 s High 2000 s All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm

10 Average monthly flow (mcm) Flow intensity, duration, probability below Kutt Barrage Average monthly flow (mcm) Average monthly flow (mcm) Average monthly flow (mcm) After 5000 mcm (416 mcm monthly) 2000 mcm (208mcm monthly) Flow diversion into Hawizeh marsh 5000 mcm (416 mcm monthly) 4000 mcm (330 mcm monthly) 2000 mcm (208mcm monthly) % Exceedence % Excedence Flow diversion above barrage Flow of tigris towards Basra % Excedence % Excedence

11 Flow (cms) Dams Volume (mcm) Current Volume Inflow Outflow Evaporation evap/v Dam (mcm) (mcm) (mcm) % reduction (mcm) ol Batman % 50 5% Dicile % 24 4% Kralkize % 54 3% % 416 4% Dokan % 309 5% Dibbis % 154 4% Hemrin % 78 3% Derbinkha 3000 n % 142 5% % 40 1% % Total Dam effects Future Countr River Dams y Volume Taqtaq Lesser Zab Iraq 2858 Bekhme Greater zab Iraq 8300 BakeermanGreater zab Iraq 500 Mandava Greater zab Iraq 2000 Hakkari Greater zab Turkey 2000 Garzan Trib upper tigris Turkey 145 Kayser Trib upper tigris Turkey 1970 Dilini Trib upper tigris Turkey 200 Trin upper Silvan tigris Turkey Cizie Upper tigris Turkey 200 Illisu Upper tigris Turkey Flow out with reservoir Flow out without reservoir Volume with irrigation

12 Average 2000 s - Current Current and Post Dams Average 2000 s Post dams* 6000 *Assumptions based on current dam sizes, inflow and outflow calculations Greater zab 1000Lesser Zab Greater zab 1000Lesser Zab % reduction

13 Conclusions Open source of knowledge about water is key to avoid conflicts Open source models and data availability publically is very important Mekong river basin is a good example The water conflicts are well known in other river basins such as Ganges, Nile, Amazonia, Danube, Colorado and other major rivers around the world. As SWAT modelers we could model these basins and publish the information in a peer review process to bring focus to the problem and contribute to the awareness to countries that have no or poor information.

14