John McKinney Illinois Crop Improvement Association

Transcription

1 John McKinney Illinois Crop Improvement Association

2 U. S. Grains Council Harvest Quality Report Export Quality Report

3 Centrec Consulting Group, Savoy, IL Illinois Crop Improvement Association, Champaign, IL Champaign-Danville Grain Inspection, Urbana, IL Dr. Marvin Paulsen, ret. University of Illinois Dr. Lowell Hill, ret. University of Illinois Dr. Fred Below, University of Illinois Dr. Tom Whitaker, ret. North Carolina State Univ

4

5 Proportionate stratified random sampling 12 key corn producing states representing 99% of U.S. corn exports

6 Target of 559 samples to achieve +/-10% relative margin of error (ME) at the 95% confidence level. Actually received 637 unblended corn samples from inbound farm originated trucks received between September 6 and November 26, Up to 4 samples per elevator

7 Results summarized in aggregate and by three composite groups referred to as Export Catchment Areas (ECAs) Gulf Pacific NW Southern Rail

8

9 Test Weight Broken Corn and Foreign Material Damage (Total and Heat) Moisture

10 Near Infrared Transmittance Instrument Protein Oil Starch

11 Primarily chosen to evaluate general storability and breakage susceptibility True density, 100 kernel weight, kernel volume Stress cracks Whole kernels % Horneous endosperm Also applicable to dry milling

12 Evaluated using Envirologix QuikTox and QuikScan for quantification. Aflatoxin (LOQ 2.5 ppb) Vomitoxin (LOQ 0.2 ppm)

13 Grading Factors

14 Reality

15 U.S. Aggregate: 58.8 lb/bu Indicates overall good quality Did not vary greatly across ECAs Higher level with less variability than 2011 U.S. Aggregate Avg (lb/bu) Std Dev (lb/bu) Percent of Samples (%) lb/bu

16 U.S. Aggregate: 0.8% Low levels of BCFM Little variability across ECAs Lower levels than Percent of Samples (%) Percent U.S. Aggregate Avg (%) Std Dev (%)

17 0.5 U.S. Aggregate: 0.8% Low levels indicating good quality at harvest 99.0% of all samples meet Total Damage standard for U.S. No. 2. Greater uniformity than 2011 Heat Damage: Zero Likely due to fresh samples coming directly out of the field Percent of Samples (%) U.S. Aggregate Avg (%) Std Dev (%) Percent

18 13.9 Not a grade factor Submitted by elevator U.S. Aggregate: 15.3% Slightly greater variability than in 2011 Highest ECA average in the Gulf ECA U.S. Aggregate Avg (%) Std Dev (%) Percent of Samples (%) Percent

19 Composition

20 9.4 Important for poultry and livestock feeding; supplies essential amino acids 2012 U.S. Aggregate: 9.4% protein (dry basis) Significantly higher than in 2011 Corn with protein levels 9% 2012: 68% 2011: 39.6% Percent of Samples (%) U.S. Aggregate Avg (%) Std Dev (%) Percent (Dry Basis)

21 3.7 Essential feed component; important byproduct of wet and dry milling 2012 U.S. Aggregate: 3.7% (dry basis) Corn with oil levels 3.25% 2012: 49.1% 2011: 42.4% U.S. Aggregate Percent of Samples (%) Avg (%) Std Dev (%) Percent (Dry Basis)

22 Important for wet millers and dry-grind ethanol manufacturers 2012 U.S. Aggregate: 73.0% (dry basis) Slightly lower than U.S. Aggregate Avg (%) Std Dev (%) Percent of Samples (%) Percent (Dry Basis)

23 Starch Sugars Photosynthesis during grain fill Protein Nitrogen Remobilization / Assimilated from leaves Drought during grain fill reduces starch to a greater extent than protein Generally leads to higher protein levels

24 Physical Factors

25 Internal fissures of horneous (hard) endosperm U.S. Aggregate: 4% 90.8% of samples with <10% Extremely low stress cracks across the ECAs U.S. Aggregate Avg (%) Std Dev (%) Percent of Samples (%) Percent

26 U.S. Aggregate 100-kernel weight (34.53 grams) is in the middle range U.S. Aggregate kernel volume (0.27 cm 3 ) is relatively high, implying large kernels U.S. Aggregate true density (1.276 g/cm 3 ) Higher levels than 2011 despite drought conditions Consistent with higher test weight

27 Higher weights indicate larger kernel sizes U.S. Aggregate: g Greater variability than 2011 Corn with 100-k weight 35 g 2012: 48.3% 2011: 26.6% U.S. Aggregate Avg (g) Std Dev (g) Percent of Samples (%) grams

28 Indicative of growing conditions U.S. Aggregate: 0.27 cm 3 Higher volume, consistent with higher 100-k weights, than in 2011 Fairly uniform across ECAs U.S. Aggregate Avg (cm 3 ) Std Dev (cm 3 ) Percent of Samples (%) cm 3

29 1.277 Reflects kernel hardness Related to genetics and growing conditions U.S. Aggregate: g/cm 3 Corn with true density g/cm : 52.5% 2011: 39.0% U.S. Aggregate Percent of Samples (%) Avg (g/cm 3 ) Std Dev (g/cm 3 ) g/cm 3

30 Relatively high initial whole kernel percentages (94.4%), along with low stress cracks, indicate another year of corn entering the marketing channel with reduced storage risk and lower susceptibility to breakage during handling Horneous (hard) endosperm (85%) within a range of % is consistent with higher test weight and true density

31 Weight of all whole kernels as a percentage of a 50 g sample Broken Corn in BCFM measures only size, not U.S. Aggregate whether it is broken or whole U.S. Aggregate whole kernels : 94.4% About 90% of samples had 90% or more whole kernels Percent of Samples (%) Avg (%) Std Dev (%) Percent

32 Measures the percent of the endosperm that is horneous or hard within a range from % U.S. Aggregate: 85% Little variation across ECAs Corn with horneous endosperm 90% 2012: 16.1% 2011: 14.5% U.S. Aggregate Avg (%) Std Dev (%) Percent of Samples (%) Percent

33 Higher ratio of round to flat kernels (not measured in this study) Supported by findings from other work Photo from

34 Mycotoxins

35 Corn Harvest Report shows ONLY the frequency of detection in harvest samples Corn Harvest Report does NOT predict the presence or levels of mycotoxins in U.S. corn exports Tested 25% of collected samples versus 10% in 2011 Positive results if above Minimum Limit of Detection (LOD) Aflatoxins: 2.5 ppb DON: 0.2 ppm

36 Percent of Samples Tested <2.5 ppb >=2.5 ppb & <= 20 ppb > 20 ppb

37 Percent of Samples Tested <0.5 ppm >=0.5 ppm & <= 5 ppm > 5 ppm

38

39 Much less variability compared to harvest samples Increased breakage (BCFM and Whole Kernels) More and more severe stress cracking Relatively high density from harvest 100% of samples below 20 ppb aflatoxin

40 Third and final year of contract If the information is valuable, please let the U.S. Grains Council know Ideas for adjustment of scope / focus Harvest Report: 13%20Harvest%20Report/Harvest%20Report%20Final% pdf Export Report: final.pdf

41 Thank you to the U.S. Grains Council for their support of these reports.