Canadian Convenience Stores Association Youth Contraband Tobacco Study, 2009

Transcription

1 Canadian Convenience Stores Association Youth Contraband Tobacco Study, 2009 Wednesday, October 7 th, 2009 Canadian Convenience Stores Association 466 Speers Road, Suite 217 Oakville ON Canada L6K 3W9 Phone -(905) Fax -(905)

2 Contents 1. Objectives 2. Methodology 3. Data Analysis 4. Sample Size and Tolerances 5. Conclusions 6. Context for the Study 7. Cigarette Butt Study - Key Findings 8. Share of Illegal Tobacco Products in Ontario 9. Appendix 2

3 1. Objectives To understand whether the youth segment is smoking un-taxed cigarettes and to what extent. Analyze prevalence of contraband tobacco products at 110 high schools in Ontario. Definition of 'illegal' (in terms of the baseline study) Duty Not Paid Appropriate government taxes and duty not paid. Counterfeit and suspected international brands were classified under 'illegal' tobacco products. 'Illegal' butts are those without branding, foreign or untaxed (native) brands. 3

4 2. Methodology Anonymous collection of cigarette butts Anonymously collect cigarette butts at previously identified (observed) smoking locations on public lands around high schools. The targets in this study were 110 high schools in Ontario. The selection of sites was based on geographic location and sociodemographic profiles of communities. The data gathering phase was implemented between April 22 nd and June 8 th, The results are based on a count of legal, illegal and unknown butts. 4

5 3. Data analysis Cigarette butts were sorted into 'legal', 'Illegal' and 'Unknown' clusters. Definitions: Legal: Cigarette butts with identifiable brand names of tax paid cigarette brands Illegal: Cigarette butts without branding, foreign or untaxed (native) brands. Unknown: Cigarette butts without identifiable markings to be classified as 'Legal' or 'Illegal'. 5

6 4a. Confidence level and margin or error The data has been tested for significance at the 95% confidence level with a 0.8% margin of error for the broad sample base. As margins of error for various sub-samples will vary based on sample size and proportion of the obtained result, a selection of sampling tolerances is presented in the following table. The data is based on Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) Standards. sample size margin of error margin of error (N) (fraction) (percentage)

7 4b. Sample Size and Tolerances The margin of error calculation is based on the population of the age group years in Ontario. As per Statistics Canada data *, the population of the age group in Ontario is as follows: Ontario: 833,115 Count of cigarette butts Total Legal Illegal Unknown Total (Legal/Illegal) Ontario 19, ,274 16,496 Results based on Ontario Sample (n= 16,496) +/- 0.77% * Statistics Canada Community Profiles 7

8 4c. Sample Size in Ontario Results based on Ontario Sample (n= 16,496) Municipality/Area Sites Regional Municipality of Durham 11 Oshawa 3 Durham 2 Pickering 1 Whitby 4 Ajax 1 Regional Municipality of Peel 9 Brampton 4 Mississauga 5 Regional Municipality of York 11 Aurora 2 Markham 1 Newmarket 2 Thornhill 2 York Simcoe 4 Regional Municipality of Toronto 19 Toronto 4 North York 2 Etobicoke 5 Scarborough 8 Municipality/Area Sites Other areas 60 Hamilton 8 Windsor 7 Brantford 6 Cornwall 5 Ottawa 11 Kitchener 7 London 6 Oxford 4 Grey Bruce 2 Simcoe Region 4 TOTAL ONTARIO 110 8

9 Grey Bruce Ottawa Simcoe Cornwall York Kitchener Peel Durham London Toronto Windsor Hamilton Oxford Brantford Surveyed locations In Ontario

10 5. Conclusions Significant presence of 'illegal' tobacco in Ontario: Use of untaxed ('illegal') tobacco products continues to be significant among youth segments in Ontario. 30% of the 16,496 discernable cigarette butts collected from 185 sites at surveyed locations Ontario were found to be 'illegal'. Higher incidence of 'illegal' tobacco In Ontario, an estimated 30% of the cigarette butts collected from 110 sites were 'illegal'. Sites in several new cities were added in the 2009 survey, hence total incidence of contraband in the 2009 study is not comparable to the results of the 2008 study due to different sample bases. Widespread prevalence of contraband across geographic areas Use of untaxed ('illegal') tobacco products in the youth population is widespread. The trend in incidence of contraband over the past three years confirms that the prevalence of illegal tobacco products is not restricted to large urban areas. It is a growing trend in smaller cities. Increase in incidence of 'illegal' tobacco in areas surveyed in 2008 The incidence of 'illegal' butts increased by an average of 4% in 9 out of 11 cities in Ontario. Economically depressed areas have seen a relatively higher increase in contraband tobacco. 10

11 6. Context for this study Incidence of smoking in the population aged years in Ontario Information source: Statistics Canada 11

12 6a. Incidence of under-age smoking in Ontario According to a Statistics Canada study ('Smokers, by province and territory, 2005'), 10.3% of individuals in the age group years are smokers. The incidence of underage smokers is below the national level in Ontario (9.0%). All age groups 12 to to to to to 64 % of population aged 12 and older 65 and older Canada Males E Females E Ont E Males 17.8 F Females E Source: Statistics Canada; Smokers, by province and territory,

13 7. Cigarette Butt Study Key Findings 13

14 7a. Cigarette Butt classification The share of cigarette butts classified as 'legal', 'Illegal' and 'Unknown' are listed below. 17% of the cigarette butt samples reviewed were found to be of 'unknown' origin. The analysis in this report includes only 'legal' and 'illegal' cigarette butts to ensure data integrity. n= 33,834 Share Total (n) Total % Legal % Illegal % Unknown % Ontario 19,

15 7a. Cigarette Butt classification (continued) The cigarette butts classified as 'unknown' were not included in the analysis. The total count of 'legal' and 'illegal' cigarette butts, excluding 'unknown' butts, is 16,496. Incidence of illegal tobacco was found to be 30% in Ontario in the areas surveyed in n= 16, Total (n) Total % Legal % Illegal % Ontario 16, Margin of error calculation Results based on Ontario Sample (n= 16,359) +/- 1.27% 15

16 Count of municipalities/areas in Ontario with over 10% share of contraband tobacco In Ontario, 6 of the 55 municipalities/areas surveyed had over 40 percent share of 'illegal' cigarette butts. 11% of cities in Ontario have over 40% contraband incidence Municipalities/ Areas surveyed >40% >30% >20% >10% Ontario 16

17 8. Share of illegal tobacco products in Ontario Brantford Cornwall Durham Region Hamilton Kitchener Waterloo London Ottawa Oxford Peel Region Simcoe Region Bruce Grey Toronto Windsor York Region 17

18 Grey Bruce 27 Ottawa 23 Simcoe 28 York Windsor London Kitchener 22 Brantford Peel 39 Toronto 24 Durham 34 Cornwall 38 Oxford Hamilton Incidence of contraband in regions in Ontario 18

19 Incidence of contraband Ontario regions n= 16, Brantford Cornwall Durham Region Hamilton Kitchener Waterloo London Ottawa Oxford Peel Region Simcoe Region Bruce Grey Toronto Windsor York Region Ontario Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal Ontario ,584 4,912 16,

20 Ontario regions Trend in contraband incidence n= 16, Whitby Oshawa Ajax Pickering Mississauga Brampton Scarborough Newmarket Aurora Markham Thornhill Ontario Incidence in Ontario Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal Ontario ,584 4,912 16,

21 Incidence of contraband Brantford and Cornwall n= 1, Brant Haldimand Norfolk Stormont Dundas South Glengarry Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal Brantford Cornwall

22 Incidence of contraband Durham Region n= 1, Whitby Durham Oshawa Ajax Pickering Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal

23 Incidence of contraband Hamilton Region n= Niagara West Glanbrook Hamilton Centre Hamilton East Stoney Creek Hamilton Mountain Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal

24 Incidence of contraband Kitchener-Waterloo and London n= 1, Kitchener Centre Kitchener Waterloo Kitchener Conestoga Cambridge London West London North London Fanshawe Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal Kitchener-Waterloo London

25 Incidence of contraband Ottawa n= 1, Ottawa West Nepean Ottawa South Ottawa Vanier Ottawa Orleans Ottawa Centre Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal

26 Incidence of contraband Peel Region n= 1, Mississauga Erindale Mississauga Brampton South Mississauga East Cooksville Brampton Springdale Brampton West Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal

27 Incidence of contraband Simcoe Region, Grey-Bruce and Oxford n= 1, Oxford Barrie Owen Sound Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal Simcoe (Barrie) Grey-Bruce(Owen Sound) Oxford

28 Incidence of contraband Toronto n= 2, Etobicoke Lakeshore Scarborough Guildwood Toronto Centre Don Valley East Etobicoke Centre Pickering - Scarborough Scarborough Centre Don Valley West Scarborough Rouge River St. Pauls Etobicoke North Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal

29 Incidence of contraband Windsor n= 1, Windsor Tecumseth Windsor West Essex Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal

30 Incidence of contraband York Region n= 1, York Simcoe Newmarket Aurora Markham Thornhill Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal

31 9. Appendix 1. Samples of collection sites 2. Samples of cigarette butts 3. Sample collection schedule in Ontario 31

32 Samples of collection sites 32

33 Samples of cigarette butts Samples of cigarette butts collected from locations in Quebec and Ontario. 33

34 Sample collection schedule in Ontario Electoral District / Riding Sites Collection Electoral District / Riding Sites Collection Brant 4 Week 3, May Oxford 4 Haldimand Norfolk 2 Week 3, May Mississauga Erindale 3 Week 3, May Stormont 2 Week 3, May Mississauga Brampton South 1 Week 3, May Dundas 1 Week 3, May Mississauga East Cooksville 1 Week 3, May South Glengarry 2 Week 3, May Brampton Springdale 2 Week 3, May Whitby 4 Week 2, May Brampton West 2 Week 3, May Durham 2 Week 2, May Barrie 4 Week 4, May Oshawa 3 Week 2, May Owen Sound 2 Week 4, April Ajax 1 Week 2, May Etobicoke Lakeshore 2 Week 4, April Pickering 1 Week 2, May Scarborough Guildwood 2 Week 4, April Niagara 2 Week 1, June Toronto Centre 2 Week 4, April West Glanbrook 1 Week 1, June Don Valley East 2 Week 4, April Hamilton Centre 3 Week 1, June Etobicoke Centre 2 Week 4, April Hamilton East Stoney Creek 1 Week 1, June Pickering -Scarborough 3 Week 4, April Hamilton Mountain 1 Week 1, June Scarborough Centre 2 Week 4, April Kitchener Centre 2 Week 1, June Don Valley West 1 Week 4, April Kitchener Waterloo 2 Week 1, June Scarborough Rouge River 1 Week 4, April Kitchener Conestoga 2 Week 1, June St. Pauls 1 Week 4, May Cambridge 1 Week 1, June Etobicoke North 1 Week 4, May London West 2 Week 1, June Windsor Tecumseth 3 Week 4, May London North 2 Week 1, June Windsor West 2 Week 4, May London Fanshawe 2 Week 1, June Essex 2 Week 4, May Ottawa West Nepean 3 Week 1, May York Simcoe 4 Week 4, May Ottawa South 3 Week 1, May Newmarket 2 Week 4, May Ottawa Vanier 2 Week 1, May Aurora 2 Week 4, May Ottawa Orleans 2 Week 1, May Markham 1 Week 4, May Ottawa Centre 1 Week 1, May Thornhill 2 Week 4, May 34

35 Canadian Convenience Stores Association Youth Contraband Tobacco Study, 2009 Canadian Convenience Stores Association 466 Speers Road, Suite 217 Oakville ON Canada L6K 3W9 Phone -(905) Fax -(905)