Chapter 1: Thinking critically with psychological science Introduction
Fact or Falsehood 1. Human intuition is remarkable accurate and free from error. 2. Most people seem to lack confidence in the accuracy of their beliefs. 3. Case studies are particularly useful because of the similarities we all share. 4. We tend to overestimate the number of people who share our attitudes and beliefs. 5. The opinions of 1500 randomly selected people can provide a very accurate picture of the opinions of an entire nation.
Fact or Falsehood 6. The scientific finding that children who watch violence on television tend to be violent proves that viewing violence causes it. 7. Listening to a tape with a subliminal message suggesting that you have a good memory can actually help improve your memory. 8. The purpose of the experiment is to re-create behaviors exactly as they occur in everyday life. 9. An analysis of the research indicates that psychologists have sometimes unnecessarily caused extreme pain to animals. 10. As a science, psychology is objective and value-free.
Fact or Falsehood Now at the top of your paper, predict how many you think you got correct.
Fact or Falsehood 1. Human intuition is remarkable accurate and free from error. False 2. Most people seem to lack confidence in the accuracy of their False beliefs. 3. Case studies are particularly False useful because of the similarities we all share. 4. We tend to overestimate the True number of people who share our attitudes and beliefs. 5. The opinions of 1500 randomly selected people can provide a True very accurate picture of the opinions of an entire nation.
Fact or Falsehood 6. The scientific finding that children who watch violence on television tend to be violent proves that viewing violence causes Falseit. 7. Listening to a tape with a subliminal message suggesting that you have a good memory can actually help improve your memory. False 8. The purpose of the experiment is to re-create behaviors exactly as they occur in everyday life. False 9. An analysis of the research indicates that psychologists have sometimes unnecessarily caused extreme pain to animals. False 10. As a science, psychology is objective and value-free. False
Understanding Research DISCOVERING PSYCHOLOGY
Demonstration Glass of water and paperclips. The limits of Intuition and Common Sense Counter to human intuition, water has a high surface tension, behaving as though is has a flexible skin. That skin pulls inward and resists breaking. The glass of water will develop a great bulge before the water flows over the edge.
The Need for Psychological Science Psychologists, like all scientists, use the scientific method to construct theories that organize observations and imply testable hypotheses Hindsight Bias Overconfidence
Hindsight Bias Hindsight bias: the tendency to exaggerate one s ability to have foreseen how something would turn out after learning the outcome. After the horror of 9/11 it seemed obvious the American intelligence services should have taken advanced warnings more seriously, that airport security should have anticipated box-cutterwielding terrorists, that occupants of the second tower should have known to play it safe and leave. With 20/20 hindsight, everything seems obvious.
Overconfidence Compare your score to your predicted score. By raise of hands, how many over predicted your score? Overconfidence is the tendency to overestimate the accuracy of our current knowledge and is a powerful phenomenon. Overconfidence stems partly from our tendency to search for information that confirms our preconceptions.
Overconfidence Here are some examples of overconfidence among experts. There is no reason for anyone to have a computer in their home. (Ken Olsen, president of Digital Equipment Company, 1977) Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. (Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, physicist, and president of the British Royal Society, 1895) A severe depression like that of 1920-21 is outside the range of probability. (Harvard Economic Society, Weekly Letter, November 16, 1929) Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all future scientific advances. (Lee DeForest, inventor of the vacuum tube, 1957) Nuclear powered vacuum cleaner will probably be a reality within 10 years. (Alex Lewyt, manufactures of vacuum cleaners, 1955)
Scientific Attitude How do we overcome the limits of our intuition, hindsight bias, and overconfidence? Critical Thinking Thinking that does not blindly accept arguments or conclusions but questions their validity
The Need for Psychological Science The Amazing Randi--Skeptic Critical Thinking thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions examines assumptions discerns hidden values evaluates evidence
Ch 1: thinking critically with psychological science Research Methods
The Need for Psychological Science Theory an explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes and predicts observations Hypothesis a testable prediction often implied by a theory
The Need for Psychological Science
The Need for Psychological Science Operational Definition a statement of procedures (operations) used to define research variables Example- intelligence may be operationally defined as what an intelligence test measures
Scientific Method Technique using tools such as observation, experimentation, and statistical analysis to learn about the world Through its use, psychology is thereby Through its use, psychology is thereby considered a science.
Research and Research Methodology Method of asking questions then drawing logical supported conclusions Researchers need to be able to determine if conclusions are reasonable or not (critical thinking).
Bias Situation in which a factor unfairly increases the likelihood of a researcher reaching a particular conclusion Bias should be minimized as much as possible Bias should be minimized as much as possible in research
Researcher Bias The tendency to notice evidence which supports one particular point of view or hypothesis Objectivity tends to reduce bias.
Participant Bias Tendency of research subjects to respond in certain ways because they know they are being observed The subjects might try to behave in ways they believe the researcher wants them to behave Can be reduced by naturalistic observation
Description Psychologists describe behavior using case studies, surveys, and naturalistic observation
Case Study Psychologists study one or more individuals in great depth in the hope of revealing things true of us all Is language uniquely human?
Uses for Case Studies Source of insights and ideas Particularly useful in early stages of investigation a specific topic Freud and others theories emerged from case studies Used to describe particularly rare phenomena Ex: The study of presidential assassins Form of psychobiography's involve the application of psychological concepts and theories in an effort to understand the lives of famous people Martin Luther, davinci, etc Used to provide concreted examples of abstract concepts and processes
Limitations in Case Studies This technique is very open to bias Observations done by single investigator No way of assessing reliability or validity Difficulty of applying data from one person to everyone Useless in providing evidence to test behavioral theories or treatments The lives and events studied occur in uncontrolled fashion and without comparison information. No matter how reasonable the investigator s explanations, alternative explanations cannout be ruled out.
Surveys Research method that relies on self-reports; uses surveys, questionnaires, interviews. Usually a very efficient and inexpensive method
Wording of Survey Questions Pass out surveys By raise of hands, how many estimated greater than 1500 miles? Greater than 30 million people? Actual answers: 2348 miles and 36 million Respondents may be ignorant to wording Ex: 77% of people were interested in plants and trees, but only 39% were interested in botany.