Course Introduction. Professor Ron Fricker Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, California 3/15/15 1

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1 Course Introduction Professor Ron Fricker Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, California 3/15/15 1

2 Contact Information Professor Ron Fricker Office: Glasgow 275 Phone: DSN: Web site: 3/15/15 2

3 A Bit About Me Academic credentials Ph.D. and M.A. in Statistics, Yale University M.S. in Ops Research, The George Washington University Teaching credentials Started teaching post-graduate courses in mid-80s Have taught at NPS, RAND Graduate School, and USC Research interests Biosurveillance how to quickly detect a bioterrorist attack Survey design and analysis Quality control and statistical process control Military manpower and personnel issues: recruiting, retention, effects of deployment 3/15/15 3

4 Course Syllabus 3/15/15 4

5 Course Schedule The plan: Note that this means we re going to be covering about a section of the text per day! We ll talk about study strategies in a bit But the point here is that you will have to put the time in and work every day to keep up 3/15/15 5

6 Grading Final exam 40% Mid-term exam 30% Quizzes 20% Class participation 10% Homework: self-graded 3/15/15 6

7 Planned Schedule Mid-term Exam Final Exam Week 1: Chpt Week 2: Chpt Week 3: Chpt Week 4: Chpt Week 5: Chpt Week 6: Chpt 3.8, Week 7: Chpt Week 8: Chpt , 4.10, 4.12 Week 9: Chpt Week 10: Chpt Week 11: Chpt /15/15 7

8 Some Grading Details Exams will be in-class and proctored Mid-term exam: 50 minutes each, closed book Final exam: 1 hour and 50 minutes, closed book My exams are hard and time constrained But I grade on a curve I.e., performance judged relative to peers ü Homework is critical for doing well in the class Don t misinterpret the self-grading 3/15/15 8

9 Miscellaneous Office hours By appointment Also: Academic integrity and NPS Honor Code Late submission policy Homework collaboration policy 3/15/15 9

10 A Note on the Lecture Notes Icon means we will complete the slide in-class 3/15/15 10

11 Homework Problems In the notes, there s a page with homework problems for each section: On average, there are 4 problems per section At 4 sections per week, that means you ll have problems per week Recommend doing them on a daily basis Don t wait until just before the exams 3/15/15 11

12 Tour of Course Sakai Site We will be using Sakai as our course management tool URL: 3/15/15 12

13 How to Study for this Course Before the Lectures Skim reading assignment: The what s: What problem is being solved? The why s: Why is this method being used? If difficulties with the homework persist, come to office hours During the Lectures Participate and ask questions, particularly on those things that are not clear in the reading If there are difficulties with the homework, review reading assignment and lecture notes After the Lectures Re-do reading assignment: The how s: How does the statistical method work? The when s: When do I apply the method and how? Check your understanding of the material with the homework problems 3/15/15 13

14 How Not to Study for this Course Calvin & Hobbes by Bill Watterson 3/15/15 14

15 Why Study Probability? The world is an uncertain place: The fog of war is another way of saying that military operations are full of uncertainty Probability is the language of uncertainty Having the ability to see the world stochastically and to think about it probabilistically is critical 3/15/15 15

16 Real World Example: Combat Helmet Testing Before awarding contracts to buy combat helmets, DoD conducts first article testing or FAT Goal is to determine whether product meets purchase specifications For helmets, it is a destructive ballistic test I.e., representative helmets are shot at under various conditions 3/15/15 16

17 Test Metrics Penetration Resistance to projectiles fired at a constant velocity May be partial penetration or complete (bullet or bullet fragments go through the helmet) Back face deformation (BFD) BFD is the depth of the crater left in backing clay after impact Surrogate measure for blunt force trauma 3/15/15 17

18 The Goal of Helmet Testing is to ensure helmets provide adequate personnel protection What s adequate personnel protection mean? And note that not every helmet can be tested it s a destructive test! 3/15/15 18

19 Must Be Able to Think Probabilistically What s the chance that a given helmet, in a given set of conditions, against a particular threat will protect the soldier? Note, just because no penetrations are observed in testing, that does not mean the probability of penetration is zero 3/15/15 19

20 Probability is the OR Foundation Course Q1 (Spring/Fall) MA 3042 (4-0) Linear Algebra MA 1118 (4-0) Multivariable Calculus OA 3101 (4-1) Probability OA 2801 (4-1) Computational Methods for OR OA 2900 (1-0) Workshop Q2 (Winter/Summer) OA 3201 (4-0) Linear Program m ing OA 3102 (4-2) Statistics OA 3301 (4-0) Stochastic Models I OA3304 (4-0) Decision Theory OA 2900 (1-0) Workshop Q3 (Spring/Fall) OA 4202 (4-0) Network Flow s and Graphs OA 3103 (4-1) Data Analysis OA 4301 (4-0) Stochastic Models II OA 3302 (4-0) Sim ulation Modeling OA 2900 (1-0) Workshop Q4 (Winter/Summer) OA 4201 (4-0) Nonlinear Program m ing OA 4106 (3-1) Advanced Data Analysis OA 4702 (4-0) Cost Estim ation OA 4333 (4-0) Sim ulation Analysis OA 2900 (1-0) Workshop Q5 (accel.) (Fall) (8 w ks, 5 hrs/w k) OA 4655 (4-0) Joint Combat Modeling (8 w ks, 5 hrs/w k) OA 4801 (3-2) Spreadsheet Modeling for MOR (8 w ks, 5 hrs/w k) OA 3602 (4-0) Search Theory and Detection (8 w ks, 5 hrs/w k) OA 3900 (0-8) Experience Tour (last 3 w eeks) Q6 (Winter/Summer) OA 0810 (0-8) Thesis Research OA 4XXX (4-0) Ele ctive OA 4602 (4-0) Joint Campaign Analysis OA 4656 (4-0) Studies in Defense and Military OR Q7 (Spring/Fall) OA 0810 (0-8) Thesis Research OA 0810 (0-8) Thesis Research OA 4910 (4-0) HF case studies in OR NW 3230 (4-2) Strategy and Policy 3/15/15 20

21 Okay, So Why s This Stuff Important? Tools Used - Frequency 3/15/15 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Graphs of data data/sample distributions confidence intervals means/medians/variances hypothesis testing regression analysis simulation modeling Tool optimization NA Seldom(one project) Infrequently(a couple of projects) Frequently(most projects) Always(every project) 21

22 Again, Why s This Stuff Important? 3/15/15 22 * Source: N81 survey of NPS OR graduates (on a 5-point Likert scale), 2015.

23 What We Have Just Covered Introduction to the course Ø Be sure to read course syllabus for details! Now, put your seatbacks and tray tables in their upright and locked positions as we prepare for take off! 3/15/15 23