Assessment of PM2.5 concentrations
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1 Assessment of PM2.5 concentrations and health impacts at a European level 14 th EIONET workshop on air quality assessment and management Warsaw 5-6 October 29 Frank de Leeuw, Jan Horálek
2 PM2.5 monitoring data PM2.5 annual mean 27 all stations, data coverage > 75% - 15 ug/m ug/m3 Limited information in AirBase 224 valid stations rural:urban:traffic = 2 :5 : 4 additional information from reporting under FWD 25-3 ug/m3 > 3 ug/m3 source: ETC/ACC-AIRBASE March 29 Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 2
3 AirBase PM annual mean (ug/m3) rural urban traffic max 25 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GB GR HU IE IT LT MT NO PL PT RO SE SK Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 3
4 PM2.5 annual LV PM2.5 annual mean concentration (mg/m3) rural urban traffic aver aver>lv max Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 4
5 PM1 daily LV PM1 36th highest day 176 ug/m3 concentration (ug/m3) rural urban traffic aver aver>lv max Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 5
6 Recent trend? PM2.5 annual mean 3 urban traffic rural Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 6
7 Creating new data Conversion based on PM2.5/PM1 ratio i. from ratio annual mean ii. mean of daily ratios iii. from regression on daily values: C = ratioc + PM 25 PM1 b ratio 1 1 = 2 Ck, PM 25 Ck, PM 1 C k, PM 1 k k Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 7
8 Co-located stations 6 traffic urban rural 5 PM2.5 (ug/m3) PM1 (ug/m3) Annual mean concentrations of PM 1 and PM 2.5, period The lines correspond with a PM 1 /PM 2.5 ratio of.8 and.5. Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 8
9 PM2.5/PM1 ratio 1..8 rural urban traffic.6 ratio Europe 1 north 2 north-west 3 central-east 4 south 5 Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 9
10 PM2.5/PM1 ratio 1..8 rural urban traffic.6 ratio Europe north north-west central-east south Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 1
11 PM2.5/PM1 ratio 1..8 rural urban traffic.6 ratio Europe north north-west central-east south Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 11
12 Comparing with observations (A) recalculated using European parameters (B) recalculated using regio parameters pseudo-pm2.5 (ug/m3) 3 2 pseudo-pm2.5 (ug/m3) 3 2 rural traffic urban PM25 (ug/m3) PM25 (ug/m3) (C) recalculated using country parameters 5 pseudo-pm2.5 (ug/m3) rural traffic urban PM25 (ug/m3) Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 12
13 Mapping of PM2.5 PM1 map + ratio = PM2.5 map 1..8 rural urban traffic.6 ratio.4.2. Europe 1 north 2 north-west 3 central-east 4 south 5 Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 13
14 PM2.5, 25 Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 14
15 Comparing with observations 5 interpolated PM2.5 (ug/m3) observed PM2.5 (ug/m3) Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 15
16 Population exposure Extent of exceedance of 25 ug/m3 LV as fraction of area population exceedance area (in % of land area) exposed fraction of populaton (% europe regio country PRT CYP ESP AUT GRC BGR ROU ITA POL CZE SVK HUN CYP PRT ESP AUT GRC BGR ROU ITA POL CZE SVK HUN Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 16
17 Population exposure Concentration in exceedance areas population weighted PM2.5 concentratio europe regio country 5 CYP PRT ESP AUT GRC BGR ROU ITA POL CZE SVK HUN Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 17
18 Average Exposure Index PM2.5 in urban areas modelled AUT BEL BGR CYP CZE DEU DNK EST ESP FIN FRA GRC HUN IRL ITA LTU LUX LVA MLT NLD POL PRT ROU SWE SVN SVK GBR Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October PM2.5 annual mean (ug/m3)
19 Average Exposure Index PM2.5 in urban areas modelled observed 27 AUT AUT BEL BEL BGR CYP CZE DEU DNK EST ESP FIN FRA GRC HUN IRL ITA LTU LUX LVA MLT NLD POL PRT ROU SWE SVN SVK GBR Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October PM2.5 annual mean (ug/m3) (ug/m3
20 Requirements AEI reduction 1% 15% 2% >25% Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 2
21 Health Impact Assessment Premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 exposure: Exposed population are adults > 3 year all causes; RR=1.6 lung cancer; RR= 1.13 cardiopulmonary diseases; RR=1.8 Country-specific demographic data from WHO and UN Population Division Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 21
22 Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 22
23 FR FR-corr PM1 sensitive for Correction factor Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 23
24 FR FR-corr PM1 sensitive for Correction factor FR FR-corr Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 24
25 Sensitivity runs 1. Compliance with LV of 25 ug/m3 (effective value for 1x1 km grid= 2.8 ug/m3) 2. Realizing the exposure reduction target Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 25
26 Reducing YOLL LV compliance AEI reduction target BGR HUN POL CZE ROU SVK NLD CYP GRC BEL MLT PRT ITA LTU FIN ESP DNK LVA GBR AUT DEU FRA EST LUX SWE SVN NOR LIE ISL IRL Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October percentage
27 Reducing YOLL LV compliance AEI reduction target BGR HUN POL CZE ROU SVK NLD CYP GRC BEL MLT PRT ITA LTU FIN ESP DNK LVA GBR AUT DEU FRA EST LUX SWE SVN NOR LIE ISL IRL Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October percentage
28 Reducing YOLL LV compliance AEI reduction target BGR HUN POL CZE ROU SVK NLD CYP GRC BEL MLT PRT ITA LTU FIN ESP DNK LVA GBR AUT DEU FRA EST LUX SWE SVN NOR LIE ISL IRL Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October percentage
29 Other endpoints Mortality, cause specific cardiopulmonary diseases lung cancer Morbidity chronic bronchitis restricted activity days lower respiratory symptoms days Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 29
30 Other endpoints Mortality, cause specific cardiopulmonary diseases lung cancer Morbidity chronic bronchitis restricted activity days lower respiratory symptoms days YOLL median 52, mean 12, 19, 83 /day 38 /day Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 3
31 Benefits comp. to 25 ( ( per capita) 4 LV compliance AEI reduction target HUN BGR CZE ROU POL SVK CYP GRC MLT PRT NLD BEL ITA EU27 LTU ESP LVA DNK AUT DEU GBR SVN EST FIN FRA LUX SWE IRL benefits compared to reference (in E/capita Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 31
32 Conclusions PM2.5 network still not in place PM1 LV more stringent than PM2.5 LV last five years no trend in PM2.5 meeting the AEI reduction target requires reductions of 1 to more than 25% 4.5M years of life lost attributable to PM2.5 meeting the PM2.5 LV will reduce YOLL with 5% meeting the exposure reduction target: 17%; benefits about 1 per person Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 32
33 Frank de Leeuw, 14th AQ EIONET, October 29 33
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