State Forecasting Models
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1 State Forecasting Models April 30, 2014
2 State Models We may re-visit the model formulations based on the following factors Feedback from stakeholders Inclusion of 2013 historical data (if it is available early enough to do so) Results when we run the models using the economic projections are not credible If we make any model adjustments, we will inform stakeholders 2
3 Dependent and Explanatory Variables Variables Eviews name Units Dependent variable: Electricity sales ELECTRICITY_SALES Gwh Explanatory variables: Electricity prices REAL_ELECTRICITY_PRICE Cents/Kwh in 2005 dollars * Natural gas prices REAL_NATURAL_GAS_PRICE Dollars/Mcf in 2005 dollars * Real personal income REAL_INCOME Thousands of 2005 dollars * Population POPULATION Number of people Manufacturing employment MANUFACTURING_EMP Number of jobs Non-manufacturing employment NON_MANUFACTURING_EMP Number of jobs Non-farm employment NON_FARM_EMP Number of jobs Gross state product REAL_GSP Millions of chained 2005 dollars Cooling degree days CDD Fahrenheit Heating degree days HDD Fahrenheit Original data was in nominal dollars. SUFG converted it to real 2005 dollars using state level CPI from IHS Global Insight. These are the same candidate explanatory variables provided to MISO March 31,
4 Arkansas Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C REAL_ELECTRICITY_PRICE REAL_NATURAL_GAS_PRICE REAL_GSP CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
5 Illinois Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C REAL_INCOME/POPULATION NON_MANUFACTURING_EMP CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
6 Indiana Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C REAL_GSP CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
7 Iowa Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C REAL_ELECTRICITY_PRICE REAL_INCOME/POPULATION REAL_GSP CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
8 Kentucky Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C POPULATION CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
9 Louisiana Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C REAL_INCOME/POPULATION MANUFACTURING_EMP CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
10 Michigan Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 21 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C REAL_ELECTRICITY_PRICE(-2) REAL_INCOME/POPULATION REAL_GSP CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
11 Minnesota Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C REAL_INCOME E CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
12 Mississippi Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 22 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C REAL_INCOME/POPULATION REAL_GSP CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
13 Missouri Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 16 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C POPULATION NON_MANUFACTURING_EMP CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
14 Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 17 Montana Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C REAL_ELECTRICITY_PRICE REAL_INCOME/POPULATION MANUFACTURING_EMP CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
15 North Dakota Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 18 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C NON_MANUFACTURING_EMP HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
16 South Dakota Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 18 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C POPULATION CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
17 Texas Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C REAL_INCOME/POPULATION REAL_GSP CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
18 Wisconsin Dependent Variable: ELECTRICITY_SALES Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 23 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Elasticity at 2012 (weather at means) C REAL_ELECTRICITY_PRICE REAL_NATURAL_GAS_PRICE REAL_INCOME/POPULATION REAL_GSP CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Durbin-Watson stat F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
19 Elasticity Summary States AR IL IN IA KY LA MI MN MS MO MT ND SD TX WI Variables REAL_ELECTRICITY_PRICE REAL_NATURAL_GAS_PRICE REAL_INCOME POPULATION REAL_INCOME/POPULATION REAL_GSP NON_MANUFACTURING_EMP MANUFACTURING_EMP NON_FARM_EMP CDD HDD The elasticities are evaluated at 2012 values except for the weather variables which are evaluated at means. 19
20 Next Steps Develop allocation models to convert state-level forecasts to LRZ level forecasts Develop LRZ energy to peak demand conversion models Incorporate econometric model drivers Run and validate state econometric models July workshop 20
21 More Next Steps Determine LRZ level energy and peak demand forecasts Determine MISO system energy and peak demand forecasts September workshop Develop forecast report 21
22 APPENDIX Coefficient Confidence Intervals 22
23 Arkansas Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 23 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C REAL_ELECTRICITY_PRICE REAL_NATURAL_GAS_PRICE REAL_GSP CDD HDD
24 Illinois Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 23 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C REAL_INCOME/POPULATION NON_MANUFACTURING_EMP CDD HDD
25 Indiana Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 23 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C REAL_GSP CDD HDD
26 Iowa Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 23 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C REAL_ELECTRICITY_PRICE REAL_INCOME/POPULATION REAL_GSP CDD HDD
27 Kentucky Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 23 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C POPULATION CDD HDD
28 Louisiana Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 23 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C REAL_INCOME/POPULATION MANUFACTURING_EMP CDD HDD
29 Michigan Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 21 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C REAL_ELECTRICITY_PRICE(-2) REAL_INCOME/POPULATION REAL_GSP CDD HDD
30 Minnesota Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 23 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C REAL_INCOME CDD HDD
31 Mississippi Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 22 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C REAL_INCOME/POPULATION REAL_GSP CDD HDD
32 Missouri Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 16 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C POPULATION NON_MANUFACTURING_EMP CDD HDD
33 Montana Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 17 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C REAL_ELECTRICITY_PRICE REAL_INCOME/POPULATION MANUFACTURING_EMP CDD HDD
34 North Dakota Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 18 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C NON_MANUFACTURING_EMP HDD
35 South Dakota Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 18 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C POPULATION CDD HDD
36 Texas Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 23 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C REAL_INCOME/POPULATION REAL_GSP CDD HDD
37 Wisconsin Coefficient Confidence Intervals Sample: Included observations: 23 95% CI Variable Coefficient Low High C REAL_ELECTRICITY_PRICE REAL_NATURAL_GAS_PRICE REAL_INCOME/POPULATION REAL_GSP CDD HDD
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