Graph 1: Country of origin for poultry imports (1H 2017)

Transcription

1 SOUTH AFRICAN POULTRY MEAT IMPORTS: COUNTRY REPORT SEPTEMBER 217 PLEASE NOTE: This report is based on SARS verified stats. The verified stats will be corrected up to two years in arrears. Where the term poultry is used, this may refer to imports of chicken, turkey, duck, goose or guinea fowl. If, as a regular user of this report, you would like other data included or data presented in a different format (e.g. tables), please contact us on cynthia@silverpath.co.za with your suggestions. 1. IMPORTS FOR 1H 217 Poultry imports for the 1H 217 totalled t down 5 % on 1H 216 imports, but up 24 % over the 5-year average for January-June imports. The percentage contributions from the major importing countries are shown in Graph 1: Graph 1: Country of origin for poultry imports (1H 217) United States 19.5% Belgium 8.2% Ireland 4.6% Argentina 4.1% Spain 4.1% Canada 3.5% Denmark 2.% Thailand 1.% Brazil 52.% Other.2% United Kingdom.5% Australia.3% Brazil was the main country of origin in 1H 217, accounting for 52. %, or t, of total poultry imports into South Africa. With AI affecting EU trade, the US was the second largest importer into the country, with 19.5 % or t. Belgium and Ireland increased exports to South Africa, in the absence of other EU nations, to account for 8.2 % ( t) and 4.6 % ( t) of 1H 217 imports, respectively. Argentina increased exports by 12 % over 1H 216, to total t (4.1 %). Spain held on to fifth place in the table (4.1 %; t), but Spanish 1

2 imports are down 44 % compared to 1H 216. Imports from Canada increased by 12 % over imports in the 1H 216, to total t (3.5 % of total imports in 1H 217). All other importing countries contributed less than 2 % each to imports of poultry into South Africa in 1H 217. If the EU countries are considered as a single entity, 19.5 % of poultry imports entered SA through the EU in 1H 217, compared to 48.1 % in 216 and 47.1 % in 215. This drop in 1H 217 reflects the impact of the trade bans on EU countries affected by avian influenza. In Graph 2, the EU countries are grouped together as a single entity. Graph 2: Country of origin 1H 217 (EU countries grouped) Brazil 52.% Other 1.3% Canada 3.5% Argentina 4.1% EU 19.5% United States 19.5% 2. MONTHLY IMPORTS FOR SEPTEMBER 217 Poultry imports into South Africa totalled tonnes in September 217. Since December, Brazil has been the main country of origin for South African poultry imports, with the exception of March when the States landed over 25 t of poultry products here. In September 217, Brazil accounted for 67.1 % or t of total imports (Graph 3); cf 37.9 % of total imports in March. The US remains in second place on the imports table in September, with tonnes (15. %). Under the terms of the AGOA agreement, US imports of frozen bone in portions resumed in January 216. The US may export 65 tonnes of bone-in frozen chicken per annum, free from anti-dumping duties. Argentina was the third biggest importer of poultry products into South Africa in September (7.8 %). A good number of European countries have reported outbreaks of HPAI in commercial and backyard operations since December 216 and trade bans remain in place against several countries. Avian influenza has reduced Dutch, French, German, Polish, Hungarian and UK imports to almost zero for most of 217. Ireland continues to export and was responsible for 4. % of the total imports in September; Denmark 4.5 %; and Canada 1.2 % (see graph below). Other countries (Australia, Chile, Thailand, China, France, UK, Uruguay and Germany) contributed.6 % collectively. Most European HPAI events are now considered resolved (OIE). 2

3 Graph 3: Poultry imports for September 217 United States 15.% Argentina 7.8% Brazil 67.1% Denmark 4.5% Ireland 4.% Canada 1.2% Other.6% Only 123 kilogrammes of poultry product arrived from France in September 217, because of AIrelated restrictions on trade. The Germans have also been excluded from the market but 48 tonnes of German poultry products arrived in September, following on from 22 and 11 tonnes of product in May and June, respectively. The Canadians exported 621 t of poultry products to South Africa in September 217; and the Thais exported just 46 tonnes. Graph 4: Poultry imports for September 217 (EU countries grouped) United States 15.% Brazil 67.1% EU 8.6% Argentina 7.8% Other.4% Canada 1.2% Poland entered the South African market in August 216, with 82 t of chicken drumsticks and chicken offal. Polish volumes increased to t in November 216 but the country has experienced outbreaks of HPAI since late 216 and no poultry imports were received from Poland in September 217. The Poles can be expected to return to the market soon. 3

4 Nov-13 Jan-14 May-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 May-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 May-17 Jul-17 Graph 4 (above) shows the origin of poultry imports in September 217, with the EU countries grouped together as a single entity. Imports from the EU contributed 8.6 % (4 443 t) of total poultry imports into South Africa in September (cf 63.1 % in November 216). EU tonnages were up 9.9 % on a monthly basis but are down 81.7 % on a year-on-year basis. COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN 3.1 Poultry imports from Brazil Poultry imports from Brazil totalled t in September 217, representing 67.1 % of total poultry imports in volume terms, with an FOB import value of R377.3 million. On a monthly basis, imports from Brazil increased by 2. % (+ 68 t). Imports increased by 65.6 % ( t) compared to September 216. Graph 5 shows the monthly imports (t) from Brazil, since September 213: Graph 5: Poultry imports from Brazil 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Brazilian imports in September 217 included 56.1 % mechanically deboned meat; 1.6 % chicken offal and carcasses; 25.3 % frozen chicken bone-in portions (up from just 2.9 % in December 216); 3.1 % frozen boneless chicken portions and 4.6 % turkey meat. Imports included smaller quantities of prepared turkey meat and value-added chicken. Accumulated imports for 215 were considerably higher than in previous years (for example, 43 % higher than in 214). Accumulated imports in December 216 ( t) were higher than in December 213 and 214 but lower than in December 215 (Graph 6). Accumulated Brazilian imports in 217 YTD are 33 % higher than in the first 9 months of

5 Poultry imports from Brazil for September 217: Tariff Description Import Quantity in kg FOB Import Price in R Unit Price in R per kg Chicken: Not cut in pieces, Frozen Mechanically Deboned Meat 19,55,411 R 145,917,533 R Carcasses (excluding necks and offal) with all cuts(e.g. thighs, wings, legs 491,856 R 3,244,329 R 6.6 and breasts) removed Chicken: Boneless cuts: Breasts 1,88,722 R 31,819,682 R Chicken: Offal: Livers 24,178 R 2,337,749 R Chicken: Offal: Feet 1,75,481 R 27,17,523 R Chicken: Offal: Other 1,241,261 R 6,542,86 R Chicken: Other: Leg quarters 7,121,171 R 97,563,327 R Chicken: Other: Wings 867,6 R 18,384,39 R Chicken: Other: Drumsticks 534,975 R 8,324,46 R Chicken: Other: Other 289,924 R 3,334,684 R Turkey: Not cut in pieces, frozen; Whole frozen turkey 143,54 R 4,769,15 R Turkey: Cuts and offal, frozen; Frozen Turkey portions and MRM 1,44,99 R 25,658,78 R Prepared or preserved meat, offal or blood of turkeys 51,216 R 1,135,447 R Chicken: Flavoured, herbed or marinated 56,695 R 1,199,665 R Total for: Brazil in September ,823,444 R 377,339,48 R 1.84 Graph 6: Accumulation of poultry imports from Brazil 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ,933 25,758 38,159 54,747 68,649 83,552 97,47 11,88 127, , , , ,728 33,254 55,456 77,282 98, ,639 14,27 161,54 182, ,69 221, , ,11 36,225 59,584 78,13 11, , , , ,621 24, , , ,27 4,954 65,86 9,63 118,66 142,38 175,597 29,74 244,564 Quarterly poultry imports from Brazil: Mechanically deboned meat (27.121) made up 6.2 % ( t) of all imports originating from Brazil during the 3Q 217 (total: t). During the third quarter of 217, the remainder of Brazilian imports included 9.4 % frozen offal (27.142*); 21. % bone-in chicken portions (27.149*); 3.8 % frozen turkey portions and MDM (27.27); 4. % frozen boneless chicken portions (27.141*) and 1.2 % frozen chicken carcasses (Graph 7). 5

6 Graph 7: Poultry imports from Brazil for Q Chicken: Carcasses 1.2% Chicken: Frozen MDM 6.2% * Chicken: Boneless portions, frozen 4.% * Chicken: Offal, frozen 9.4% * Chicken: Bone-in portions, frozen 21.% Turkey: Frozen MDM 3.8% Other.5% 3.2 Poultry imports from the EU Graph 8 depicts the total monthly poultry imports from the European Union from September 213 to September 217. During September 217, t of poultry imports entered the country from the EU; this is 9.9 % more than in August (+ 41 t). Graph 8: Monthly imports from the EU 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, EU imports represent 8.6 % of total poultry imports in September. Imports from individual EU countries, with notable tonnages, are shown in Graph 9. Only four EU nations sent product in excess of 1 tonne to South Africa in September, because of AI-related trade bans. 6

7 Nov-13 Jan-14 May-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 May-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 May-17 Jul-17 Graph 9: Poultry imports from EU countries September 217 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Denmark Germany Ireland United Kingdom The contribution of the EU to total poultry imports reached 6 % in November 214 (Graph 1). Imports averaged 34 % of total imports through much of 1H 215 because of AI-related trade bans, before recovering to 5 % in December 215. EU tonnages rose dramatically between March and May 216 and again from August 216, hitting 63 % of imports in November, before dropping dramatically from December 216 in response to new AI-related trade bans. Imports from the EU are down 81.7 % ( t) on September 216 imports. 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Graph 1: Poultry imports from EU vs total poultry imports 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Poultry imports from EU, % Poultry imports from EU, t Total poultry imports, t The contribution of frozen bone-in portions imports originating from the EU had been increasing steadily, relative to imports from other countries (Graph 11 below) but, with AI-related trade bans applied since November 216, the EU proportion has decreased to < 1 % from > 6 %. 7

8 Nov-13 Jan-14 May-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 May-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 May-17 Jul-17 Graph 11: Imports of frozen bone-in portions from the EU and other countries 4, Total imports from the EU countries 3, Total imports from countries excluding EU countries 2, 1, Quarterly poultry imports from EU: Frozen bone-in chicken portions (27.149*) made up 67.3 % (8 223 t) of all imports originating from the EU during the 3Q 217 (total: t; Graph 12). Graph 12: Poultry imports from EU for Q3 217 Other 1.5% Chicken: Frozen MDM 4.5% * Chicken: Bone-in portions, frozen 67.3% Chicken: Carcasses 1.9% Chicken: Whole, frozen 3.6% * Chicken: Offal, frozen 21.1% During the third quarter of 217, the remainder of EU imports comprised 21.1 % frozen offal (27.142*); 4.5 % chicken MDM (27.121); 3.6 % whole frozen chickens (27.129); 1.9 % frozen chicken carcasses (27.122) and 1.5 % of products imported on other tariff lines. 8

9 3.2.1 Poultry imports from Netherlands for September 217: Dutch poultry imports reached a peak in November last year ( t; see Graph 13). However, on November 8 216, the Netherlands reported H5N8 HPAI in wild birds in Noord- and Zuid- Holland, Flevoland, Overijssel, Noord-Brabant, Utrecht, Friesland, Groningen, Zeeland and Gelderland. This event totalled 56 outbreaks (351 cases). The last outbreak was reported on 22 March 217. On 28 November 216, a second report confirmed H5N8 HPAI in fattening ducks in Flevoland. This outbreak increased to nine farms, totalling cases, in Flevoland, Friesland, Overijssel, Gelderland and Zuid-Holland. Over 21 birds were culled. A trade ban on Dutch imports into South Africa has been in place and imports have reduced accordingly. Final reports on both these events were submitted to the OIE on 17 May 217 and the Dutch officially declared their avian-influenza free-status regained, under the terms of Article of the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code (216). On 22 May, the Netherlands reported two cases of H5N5 HPAI in wild greylag geese in the Utrecht region of the country. No further outbreaks have been reported to the OIE. In April 217, 112 t of poultry products were imported from the Netherlands but nothing has arrived May through September. Imports have crashed from that high of t in November 216, and from 12 3 tonnes a year ago, in September 216. Poultry imports from the Netherlands totalled t in 216, an increase of t (+ 78 %) in comparison with 215 ( t). Graph 13: Poultry imports from the Netherlands 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, Poultry imports from the UK for September 217: Since 11 December 216, the UK has been dealing with regular outbreaks of H5N8 HPAI; in Lincolnshire, Llanelli (Wales), Carmarthenshire (Wales), Devon, Dumfries and Galloway, Dorset, Gloucestershire, Merseyside, Lincolnshire, Tyne and Wear, Lancashire, Conwy (Wales), Norfolk, Londonderry, North Yorks, Suffolk and Northumberland. 9

10 To March 217, the UK reported 27 outbreaks, consisting of 5 88 cases in commercial birds and 178 in wild birds. A final report was submitted on this event to the OIE on 9 March 217. However, a separate report was submitted on 3 March 217 confirming H5N8 HPAI in a wild European wigeon in Pembrokeshire in Wales. On 3 May 217, the UK experienced a new outbreak of H5N8 in a backyard flock in the Wyre district of Lancashire and, within days, a second outbreak was reported nearby. All susceptible birds were destroyed. In early June, H5N8 HPAI was recorded in a backyard flock in Diss, Norfolk. In late July, the UK reported H5N8 in a mute swan on the Norfolk Broads. Final reports on these latest events were issued to the OIE on 13 September 217. In September 217, 23.5 tonnes of poultry products were imported from the UK (Graph 14; too little to be visible) at an FOB value of R.358 million (Graph 16). UK imports accounted for.5 % of total imports into South Africa in September; a decrease of 99.1 % ( t) on September 216 imports. All the UK imports were whole frozen chickens. Graph 14: Poultry imports from the UK 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Poultry imports from the UK for September 217: Tariff Description Import Quantity in kg FOB Import Price in R Unit Price in R per kg Chicken: Not cut in pieces, frozen, whole and half chickens 23,5 R 357,84 R Total for: United Kingdom in September ,5 R 357,84 R Poultry imports from the UK totalled t in 216, an increase of 186 % over 215 levels ( t). Imports from the UK in 217 YTD amount to tonnes. 1

11 3.2.3 Poultry imports from Germany for September 217: Low and erratic levels of imports have been recorded from Germany over the last two years as a result of temporary bans on imports because of avian influenza in the 4Q 214, 3Q 215 and 4Q 216. To 26 May 217, Germany notified the OIE of 286 outbreaks of H5N8 HPAI in wild birds and commercial poultry; with the last confirmed outbreak on 9 May. The outbreaks have occurred over much of Germany and more than 1.15 million birds have been destroyed as part of control measures. The affected commercial poultry include breeding chickens, geese and ducks; fattening turkeys and ducks; and backyard mixed flocks. Germany has also reported three outbreaks (2 35 cases) of H5N5 HPAI in breeding and fattening turkeys in the Shleswig-Holstein district, beginning on 22 January 217. Over 1 95 birds died and a further 3 75 were destroyed. Final reports on all these outbreaks were submitted to the OIE on 11 August 217. However, on 29 August a new notification was made by the Germans to the OIE, reporting H5N8 HPAI in three wild swans in Sachsen-Anhalt in the centre of the country. A final report on this event was issued on 4 October 217. On 18 October, the Germans reported H5N8 in a wild mallard duck in the north-west region of Nieder-Sachsen but they have already declared this event resolved (23 October 217). A total of 48 tonnes of poultry imports were received from Germany in September 217 (Graph 15), at an FOB value of R 3.2 m (Graph 16). German imports accounted for.9 % of total imports into South Africa in September; a decrease of 76.8 % (- 159 t) on September 216 imports. All the German imports value-added chicken products. Graph 15: Poultry imports from Germany 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Poultry imports from Germany were restricted to 554 t in 215. In 216, 6 73 t of poultry products were imported from Germany. In 217 YTD, only 81.5 t of German poultry products have been imported. 11

12 Poultry imports from Germany for September 217: Tariff Description Import Quantity in kg FOB Import Price in R Unit Price in R per kg Chicken: Flavoured, herbed or marinated 48,24 R 3,223,827 R Total for: Germany in September ,24 R 3,223,827 R Poultry imports from Ireland for September 217: In September 217, 2 59 t of poultry meat were imported from Ireland at an FOB value of R 32.5 m (Graph 16). Irish imports accounted for 4. % of total imports into South Africa in September; a decrease of 11.6 % (- 27 t) on a monthly basis but an increase of 48.7 % (+ 674 t) on September 216 imports. Of the Irish imports, 42.4 % were chicken leg quarters; 29.2 % chicken offal (livers, feet and other); 5.8 % whole frozen chickens; 1.2 % frozen chicken carcasses; 3.6 % frozen turkey portions and MDM; and 17.7 % other bone-in portions (wings, thighs, drumsticks and other). On 28 December 216, a wild wigeon suffering from HPAI was found in County Wexford, in the Republic of Ireland. Eleven further cases in wild birds had been reported under this event by 21 February, in Galway, Tipperary, Roscommon, Leitrim and Cork. No further outbreaks in wild birds or commercial flocks have been reported to date. 3, Graph 16: Poultry imports from Ireland 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 12

13 Poultry imports from Ireland for September 217: Tariff Description Import Quantity in kg FOB Import Price in R Unit Price in R per kg Carcasses (excluding necks and offal) with all cuts(e.g. thighs, wings, 25,2 R 252,687 R 1.3 legs and breasts) removed Chicken: Not cut in pieces, frozen, whole and half chickens 119,84 R 2,99,729 R Chicken: Offal: Livers 8, R 988,533 R Chicken: Offal: Feet 263,76 R 3,974,625 R Chicken: Offal: Other 258,1 R 2,23,453 R Chicken: Other: Leg quarters 872,415 R 16,267,794 R Chicken: Other: Wings 146,86 R 2,297,655 R Chicken: Other: Thighs 132,117 R 2,425,48 R Chicken: Other: Drumsticks 29,4 R 428,14 R Chicken: Other: Other 56,14 R 382,349 R Turkey: Cuts and offal, frozen; Frozen Turkey portions and MRM 75, R 1,153,35 R Total for: Ireland in September 217 2,58,832 R 32,472,922 R In 216, Ireland exported t of poultry products to South Africa, compared to t during 215; an increase of 16.6 %. Accumulated Irish imports in 217 YTD total t; 67. % higher than in the same period in Poultry imports from France for September 217: In September 217, only 123 kilogrammes of poultry meat were imported from France at an FOB value of R These imports were all pâté de foie gras. 4, Graph 17: Poultry imports from France 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Poultry imports from France for September 217: 13 Tariff Description Import Quantity in kg FOB Import Price in R Unit Price in R per kg Pate de foie gras, goose liver paste 123 R 23,91 R Total for: France in September R 23,91 R

14 In late December 215, France experienced an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Between December 215 and August 216, 81 separate outbreaks of the Eurasian H5N1, H5N2 and H5N9 strains were reported in the south west of the country, resulting in the destruction of over 28 birds. The crash in French imports through 216 relates directly to these events (Graph 17). The French were due to regain HPAI-free status on 3 December 216. On 17 November 216, a fourth HPAI event was reported to the OIE, in which 25 cases of H5N8 HPAI were recorded in wild call-ducks in the town on Marck in the region of Pas de Calais. This event then expanded to 55 outbreaks in all four corners of the country, with 15 deaths in wild birds; with the last positive case being reported on March 1 (follow-up report dated 3 April). This event was declared closed through the OIE on 18 October 217. From 25 November 216, the French had to report a further 485 outbreaks of H5N8 HPAI, totalling 15 9 cases, which resulted in the culling of over 1.29 million birds (OIE) in the districts of Landes, Hautes-Pyrenees, Gers, Deux-Sevres, Pyrenees-Atlantiq, Lot-et-Garonne, Aveyron and Tarn. The last positive outbreak was reported was on 26 June 217 (follow-up report dated 5 July 217), in an area close to the Belgium town of Tournai where there had been a recorded outbreak in hobbyist flocks. Local producers estimate that some 3.2 million birds were lost to the disease or in the pre-emptive culls. This event was also declared resolved with the OIE on the 18 October 217. In 216, France exported only 15.4 t of poultry products to South Africa, compared to t during 215; a decrease of 99.6 %. Accumulated imports into France in 217 YTD total 3.1 tonnes Poultry imports from Denmark for September 217: After reporting 36 outbreaks of H5N8 HPAI in wild birds (including tufted ducks, gulls, swans and goshawks) and in one small backyard poultry flock (58 birds destroyed) from November 216, Denmark reclaimed its HPAI-free status on 22 February 217. In April 217, Denmark reported H5N8 in a white-tailed eagle, but invoked Article of the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code, which states that member states should not impose bans on poultry or poultry commodities in response to notification of the presence of HPAI in birds other than poultry. The Danes returned to the South African poultry market in March. In September 217, t of poultry meat were imported from Denmark at a FOB value of R41 million. This is 599 t more ( %) than the tonnes imported in August. Danish imports were 415 % higher than in September 216 ( tonnes). Denmark accounted for 4.5 % of total poultry imports in August. Of the Danish imports in August, 47.7 % were chicken leg quarters; 29.2 % other bone-in portions (wings, thighs, drumsticks and other); 12.7 % chicken offal (livers and other); and 5.9 % mechanically deboned chicken meat. The remainder comprised chicken carcasses; whole frozen chicken and turkey cuts and offal. In 216, Denmark exported t of poultry products to South Africa, compared to 9 58 t during 215; an increase of 2.9 %. Accumulated imports from Denmark in 217 YTD are t; 43.2 % more than in the same nine months of

15 Graph 18: Poultry imports from Denmark 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Poultry imports from Denmark for September 217: Tariff Description Import Quantity in kg FOB Import Price in R Unit Price in R per kg Chicken: Not cut in pieces, Frozen Mechanically Deboned Meat 135,38 R 1,1,82 R Carcasses (excluding necks and offal) with all cuts(e.g. thighs, wings, 53,2 R 479,863 R 9.2 legs and breasts) removed Chicken: Not cut in pieces, frozen, whole and half chickens 23,545 R 66,77 R Chicken: Offal: Livers 135, R 1,872,5 R Chicken: Offal: Other 159,5 R 1,48,564 R Chicken: Other: Leg quarters 1,13,292 R 21,282,585 R Chicken: Other: Wings 4,164 R 9,372,554 R Chicken: Other: Thighs 229,88 R 3,975,956 R Chicken: Other: Drumsticks 19, R 385,133 R Chicken: Other: Other 27, R 215,32 R Turkey: Cuts and offal, frozen; Frozen Turkey portions and MRM 26,317 R 349,883 R Total for: Denmark in September 217 2,312,278 R 4,949,949 R Poultry imports from Hungary for September 217: No poultry meat was imported from Hungary in September 217 (Graph 19). In 216, Hungary exported t of poultry products to South Africa, compared to t during 215; an increase of 24.9 %. Hungary experienced a single avian influenza event in late March 215, which was declared resolved in an OIE report issued on the 8 April 215. However, since 1 December 216, Hungary has reported 294 outbreaks (26 45 cases) of H5N8 HPAI in poultry operations housing fattening turkeys, geese and ducks. Only 135 of the cases have been in wild birds. There have been deaths amongst the birds and almost 2 million birds have been culled. The last case reported to the OIE was dated 18 April 217 and a final report was submitted on 16 June

16 Sep-13 Graph 19: Poultry imports from Hungary 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Poultry imports from Spain for September 217: In September 217, no poultry meat was imported from Spain. Graph 2: Poultry imports from Spain 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 16

17 On 3 January 217, Spain reported a single case of H5N8 HPAI in a wild greylag goose to the OIE; found in the central north of the country. On 18 February, highly pathogenic H5N8 was found on a commercial duck farm in the province of Cataluna. A pre-emptive cull of birds followed the death of 723 ducks. This event increased to ten outbreaks, with 997 cases and nearly 27 birds culled. No further cases have been reported after 18 February 217 and the Spanish submitted a final report to the OIE on 3 May 217, reclaiming the country s HPAI-free status with effect from 2 June 217. In 216, Spain exported t of poultry products to South Africa, compared to 27 9 t during 215; an increase of 46.3 %. Accumulated imports from Spain in 217 YTD total t; 61 % less than in the same period in Poultry imports from Belgium for September 217: In September 217, no poultry meat was imported from Belgium (Graph 21). In 216, Belgium exported t of poultry products to South Africa, compared to t during 215; a decrease of 31.9 %. Accumulated imports from Belgium in 217 YTD total tonnes; 24 % up on the same period in 216. Graph 21: Poultry imports from Belgium 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 It seems that Belgian imports increase when other EU countries are affected by AI-related trade bans and decrease once these bans are lifted. However, since late January, the country has been reporting H5N8 HPAI in wild birds in the central provinces of the country: Oost-Vlaanderen, Vlaams Brabant and Wallon Brabant; and in Limburg province, neighbouring the Netherlands. Between 22 May and 7 July, the country reported at least eleven outbreaks of HPAI in domestic poultry in the provinces of Luxembourg, Hainut, West Vlaanderen, Liege and Namur (the southern provinces of Belgium, bordering France). Confusingly, this report is labeled non- 17

18 poultry on the OIE site, despite being in domestic-type birds. The last reported case was on 7 July 217 and a final report was submitted on 24 July. An additional event has been reported to the OIE on the 24 July, which lists two outbreaks in birds belonging to traders supplying hobbyists. This event currently totals 165 cases in West Vlaanderen. The last case in this event was recorded on 2 June. This event was declared resolved with the OIE on 29 September 217. It is clear that some of the infections have been in game-birds. It is not easy to tally what has been reported on the OIE Avian Influenza Portal by Belgium with what is being reported in the media in the country but HPAI has certainly entered domestic poultry populations in several regions. This was the first HPAI event in domestic poultry in Belgium in seven years and the July to September crash in Belgian imports relates directly to these outbreaks Poultry imports from Poland for September 217: Poland entered the South African market in August 216. In September 217, no imports of poultry meat were received from Poland. In 216, t of Polish poultry products were imported. On 7 December 216, Polish veterinary authorities notified the OIE of H5N8 HPAI in wild birds (24 cases). Poland reported a total of 133 outbreaks of HPAI ( cases) in wild birds, backyard flocks and commercial poultry. On 27 January, Poland added 2 cases of H5N5 in wild swans, reported from the west of the country. Over 1 million birds were culled in response to the outbreak but the last outbreak was recorded on 15 March 217 and Poland submitted a final report to the OIE on 2 April. The species of domestic bird affected in the outbreaks is not specified in the OIE report. 3.3 Poultry imports from Argentina for September 217: In September 217, 4 26 t of poultry meat were imported from Argentina at an FOB value of R45.4 m (Graph 22). Imports increased by 3.1 % (+ 931 t) on a monthly basis and increased by 139 % on a yearly basis ( t). During this month, 7.8 % of total poultry imports came from Argentina; and 29.5 % of Argentinian imports were chicken carcasses; 12.8 % frozen chicken offals (livers, feet and other); 7.2 % boneless chicken breasts; 6.4 % mechanically deboned chicken; 33.6 % frozen chicken leg quarters and 9.8 % other frozen chicken bone-in portions (wings, breasts and other). Poultry imports from Argentina for September 217: Tariff Description Import Quantity in kg FOB Import Price in R Unit Price in R per kg Chicken: Not cut in pieces, Frozen Mechanically Deboned Meat 259,5 R 2,42,85 R Carcasses (excluding necks and offal) with all cuts(e.g. thighs, 1,185,94 R 8,525,438 R 7.19 wings, legs and breasts) removed Chicken: Not cut in pieces, frozen, whole and half chickens 26,55 R 435,159 R Chicken: Boneless cuts: Breasts 29,96 R 7,32,77 R Chicken: Offal: Livers 186,35 R 1,634,948 R Chicken: Offal: Feet 25,5 R 416,93 R Chicken: Offal: Other 33,86 R 1,664,571 R Chicken: Other: Leg quarters 1,352,114 R 17,155,125 R Chicken: Other: Wings 342,475 R 5,499,177 R Chicken: Other: Breasts 26,25 R 764,17 R Chicken: Other: Other 27, R 234,587 R 8.69 Total for: Argentina in September 217 4,26,175 R 45,44,132 R

19 Graph 22: Poultry imports from Argentina 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 In 216, Argentina exported t of poultry products to South Africa, compared to t during 215; a decrease of 32.5 %. Accumulated imports from Argentina total 22 8 t in 217 YTD; 51.9 % up on the same period in Poultry imports from the USA in September 217: Imports of frozen bone-in portions, until recently subject to anti-dumping duties, resumed from the USA in January 216. Imports from the US totalled a staggering t in March 217 as annual quota was filled; up t (+ 281 %) on March 216 imports (Graph 23). September s imports totalled tonnes and were valued at R13.9 million (FOB). Imports were up 146 % ( t) on August s imports and up 437 % on September 216 levels ( t). Poultry imports from the US for September 217: Tariff Description Import Quantity in kg FOB Import Price in R Unit Price in R per kg Chicken: Boneless cuts: Breasts 284,659 R 6,227,335 R Chicken: Boneless cuts: Thighs 25,68 R 269,321 R Chicken: Offal: Livers 24,312 R 28,488 R Chicken: Offal: Other 146,272 R 1,392,688 R Chicken: Other: Leg quarters 3,774,957 R 46,517,926 R Chicken: Other: Wings 238,27 R 2,58,931 R Chicken: Other: Thighs 33,974 R 3,466,687 R Chicken: Other: Drumsticks 2,146,131 R 26,885,273 R Chicken: Other: Other 27,2 R 287,89 R Turkey: Cuts and offal, frozen; Frozen Turkey portions and MRM 774,791 R 16,44,683 R 2.71 Total for: United States in September 217 7,773,66 R 13,88,421 R

20 Graph 23: Poultry imports from the United States 28, 21, 14, 7, September s imports from the US included 48.6 % frozen chicken leg quarters; 27.6 % frozen chicken drumsticks; 3.1 % frozen chicken wings; 4.3 % frozen chicken thighs;.35 % other frozen bone-in chicken portions; 2.2 % frozen chicken offal (livers/other); 4. % boneless chicken cuts (breasts, thighs); and 1. % frozen turkey cuts/offal. American imports accounted for 15. % of total imports in September 217; up from 8.9 % in August. A total of 331 t of poultry meat was imported during 215 from the USA. In 213 and 214, an estimated and 5 22 t entered SA, so imports had dropped substantially in two years. However, in 216, t of poultry products were imported from the US. Accumulated imports from the US in 217 YTD total t (+ 244 % up on the first nine months of 216). The US reported a case of H5N2 in a hunted mallard duck in Fergus County, Montana (27 December 216) and two outbreaks of H7N9 in separate broiler breeder flocks in Lincoln County, Tennessee (3 and 13 March 217). In these outbreaks, 128 breeders were culled. No further cases have been reported but the northern hemisphere winter now looms again. 3.5 Poultry imports originating from other countries: In September 217, 46 t of poultry meat were imported from Thailand (Graph 24), down from 129 t in August (- 83 tonnes; %). In September, 5.4 % of the Thai imports were frozen boneless chicken cuts (breasts); 3. % were value-added chicken products and 19.5 % were whole frozen ducks. Thailand accounted for.9 % of total poultry exports in August; at an FOB value of R2. million. 2

21 Graph 24: Poultry imports from Thailand 1,4 1,2 1, In 216, Thailand exported 2 78 t of poultry products to South Africa, compared to t during 215; a decrease of 72.7 %. Accumulated imports from Thailand in 217 YTD total t; an increase of 78 % on the same period in 216. Poultry imports from Thailand for September 217: Tariff Description Import Quantity in kg FOB Import Price in R Unit Price in R per kg Chicken: Boneless cuts: Breasts 23,1 R 773,666 R Ducks, Other, frozen 8,942 R 241,378 R Chicken: Flavoured, herbed or marinated 13,752 R 999,279 R Total for: Thailand in September ,794 R 2,14,323 R In September 217, 621 t of poultry meat were imported from Canada at an FOB value of R9.6 m (Graph 25). Canadian imports made up 1.2 % of total poultry imports into South Africa in September and were down 39. % on August 217 levels (- 397 t). Imports were up 2 tonnes (+ 3.3 %) on September 216 levels. Of the Canadian imports in September, 79.2 % was frozen turkey cuts and offal; 16.7 % was frozen chicken bone-in drumsticks and 4.4 % was other frozen, bone-in chicken leg quarters. Poultry imports from Canada for September 217: Tariff Description Import Quantity in kg FOB Import Price in R Unit Price in R per kg Chicken: Other: Leg quarters 25,711 R 387,368 R Chicken: Other: Drumsticks 13,669 R 1,452,151 R Turkey: Cuts and offal, frozen; Frozen Turkey portions and MRM 491,438 R 7,729,144 R Total for: Canada in September ,818 R 9,568,663 R

22 2,8 Graph 25: Poultry imports from Canada 2,1 1,4 7 In 216, t of poultry products were imported from Canada. Accumulated imports from Canada in 217 YTD total t; up 91.3 % on the same period in 216. DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in SAPA STATS reports reflect those of SAPA in collaboration with its independent consultants and do not constitute any specific advice as to decisions or actions that should be taken. While every care has been taken in preparing documents no representation nor warranty or any expressed or implied undertaking is given and no responsibility or liability is accepted by SAPA as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein whether as electronic data or as a finished report. SAPA or its independent consultants do not accept responsibility or liability for any damages of whatsoever nature which any person may suffer as a result of any decision or action taken on the basis of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates contained in the reports may be changed after publication without notice. All forecasts of future production, prices, trade or feed and feed ingredient trends are based on the opinion of independent consultants contracted to SAPA. These forecasts are for guideline purposes only and SAPA does not, in any way, warrant that these predictions will be realised. SAPA therefore cautions any user of this information to treat it in an appropriate manner. These statistical reports and/or electronic data are placed in the public domain and may be used by other parties conditional to the source of the data/ report being attributed to SAPA. 22