Links between climate change and emerging infections: a bottom-up approach

Transcription

1 Links between climate change and emerging infections: a bottom-up approach McIntyre, K. Marie 1, Waret-Szkuta, A. 2, Setzkorn, C. 1, Lau, J 1, Morand, S. 2, 3, Baylis, M. 1 1 Liverpool University Climate & Infectious Diseases of Animals group (LUCINDA), University of Liverpool, UK 2 CIRAD, Montpellier, France 3 Institut des Sciences de l'evolution, Université Montpellier, France k.m.mcintyre@liv.ac.uk

2 Outline Project aims EID development Pathogen prioritisation Climate drivers

3 The bottom-up approach Most previous assessments have been top-down, starting (and often ending) with the premise that a few key vector-borne pathogens of (usually) humans (malaria, dengue, yellow fever) need urgent consideration Start by giving equal weight to all pathogens, then look for climate drivers Balanced approach; the highest-impact pathogens may be largely insensitive to climate change All important diseases of Europe, sensitive to climate and likely to be affected by climate change All important diseases of Europe, sensitive to climate All important diseases of Europe All diseases of Europe

4 What pathogens affect or threaten us? EID Pathogen Database ENHanCE framework Which matter most? Decision Support Tool What are their kwn climate drivers? Literature search How will climate change? Regional climate projections How might they respond to climate change? Risk assessment What might we try to do about it? Participatory Integrated Assessment WHAT MIGHT REALLY HAPPEN? Integrated Assessment Scenarios

5 ENHanCEd Infectious Diseases (EID) database

6 division _entities Bacteria Environmental samples Invertebrates Mammals 3804 Phages 1745 Plants Primates 663 Rodents 2617 Synthetic 4505 Unassigned 21 Vertebrates Viruses

7 MeSH terms - data sources indexed by concepts rather than plain keywords Pubmed (MeSH terms), Cabi Abstracts (cabi codes) Livestock Farm Animals Pets ( (bluetongue [MeSH] ) AND Animals, Domestic [MeSH] MeSH term: Animals, Domestic

8 Pubmed DB (NLM) > 18 million publications Humans Taxomy DB (NCBI) organisms Mesh 2010 (NLM) terms + many more qualifiers Programs ENHanCEd Infectious Diseases (EID) database Other sources (e.g. Scopus, WOS etc.)

9 What pathogens affect or threaten us? EID Pathogen Database ENHanCE framework Which matter most? Decision Support Tool What are their kwn climate drivers? Literature search How will climate change? Regional climate projections How might they respond to climate change? Risk assessment What might we try to do about it? Participatory Integrated Assessment WHAT MIGHT REALLY HAPPEN? Integrated Assessment Scenarios

10 Pathogen infects humans What is the H-index? <? >? >? Pathogen infects animals What is the H-index? <? Qualitative disease prioritisation framework D i s c a r d p a t h o g e n vaccine curative Pathogen is frequently pathogenic Clinical disease is t transient with full recovery There is vaccine available for the pathogen which could be used to prevent a sizeable outbreak vaccine available There is curative available for the pathogen which could be used to prevent a sizeable outbreak curative available Pathogen is fast spreading If the pathogen is vector-borne, are suitable vectors present in Europe? /t vector-borne Pathogen is frequently pathogenic Pathogen affects host of interest to the ENHanCE project (domestic or companion animal)*? Clinical disease is t transient with full recovery There is vaccine available for the pathogen which could be used to prevent a sizeable outbreak vaccine available There is curative available for the pathogen which could be used to prevent a sizeable outbreak curative available Pathogen is fast spreading vaccine curative D i s c a r d p a t h o g e n Does the pathogen have the potential to affect the general population (or just YOPIs)? If the pathogen is vector-borne, are suitable vectors present in Europe? /t vector-borne Human pathogens of societal importance Animal pathogens of societal importance

11 What pathogens affect or threaten us? EID Pathogen Database ENHanCE framework Which matter most? Decision Support Tool What are their kwn climate drivers? Literature search How will climate change? Regional climate projections How might they respond to climate change? Risk assessment What might we try to do about it? Participatory Integrated Assessment WHAT MIGHT REALLY HAPPEN? Integrated Assessment Scenarios

12 Temperature Maximum summer temperature Minimum summer temperature Mean summer temperature Maximum winter temperature Minimum winter temperature Mean winter temperature Days of temperature under 0 o C Days of temperature over 30 o C Mean annual temperature Annual temperature variation Day-degrees Humidity Minimum relative humidity Rainfall Total summer rainfall Total winter rainfall Total annual rainfall Summer rainy days Winter rainy days Seq. days rain Seq. days rain Wind speed Maximum wind speed Mean wind speed Seasonality Kwn seasonality Plots of seasonal patterns Pathogen survival outside host Pathogen rate of development outside host Pathogen development rate in host Vector biting rate Vector survival rate

13 Association between emerging infectious diseases and climate change using automated literature searches emerging/n-emerging AND temperature/rainfall AND pathogen X Comparison of the frequency of papers identified associated with: emerging/n-emerging Indicates temperature/rainfall that climate may be an important driver of stratified by taxomic division (bacteria, viruses, protozoa, helminths, fungi) emergence and that it may be detectable by literature search Randomly selected group of emerging viral and protozoan pathogens had a higher frequency of temperature-associated retrieved publications than did n-emerging counterparts Emerging viruses also had more rainfall related retrieved publications than n-emerging

14 Pathogen distribution data Squares Geographical Information Polygons Squares Points

15 What pathogens affect or threaten us? EID Pathogen Database ENHanCE framework Which matter most? Decision Support Tool What are their kwn climate drivers? Literature search How will climate change? Regional climate projections How might they respond to climate change? Risk assessment What might we try to do about it? Participatory Integrated Assessment WHAT MIGHT REALLY HAPPEN? Integrated Assessment Scenarios

16 Ackwledgements Department of Geography Prof. Matthew Baylis Dr. K. Marie McIntyre Mrs. Cathy Windle Dr. Cyril Caminade Dr. Andy Morse Prof. Ed Maltby Dr. Christian Setzkorn Dr. Serge Morand Dr. Agnès Waret-Szkuta Prof. Pim Martens Dr. Maud Huynens Ms. Su-Mia Akin Dr. John R. Stephenson Dr. Steve Leach Mr. Jolyon Medlock Ms. Emma Bennett Dr. Peter Stevenson