ESTIMATING WHOLESALE DEMAND FOR LIVE REEF FOOD FISH IN HONG KONG

Transcription

1 IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedngs ESTIMATING WHOLESALE DEMAND FOR LIVE REEF FOOD FISH IN HONG KONG Elzabeth Petersen, The Unversty of Western Australa (Advanced Choce Economcs Pty Ltd), ABSTRACT Wholesale demand systems for lve reef food fsh n Hong Kong are analysed usng the Lnear Approxmate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). Results suggest that prce elastctes of demand are nelastc, wth relatvely hgh-valued speces exhbtng greater elastcty than relatvely low-valued speces. Cross prce elastctes are negatve suggestng that dfferent lve reef fsh speces are complements. Lve reef fsh are found to be normal goods, wth relatvely hgh-valued speces beng less expendture-elastc than relatvely low-valued speces. SARS s found to shft expendture away from hgh-valued speces to low-valued speces. There s no evdence that Chnese New Year has a sgnfcant mpact on demand. <P> Keywords: LA/AIDS demand analyss, trade, lve reef food fsh INTRODUCTION The lve reef food fsh trade s based on the lve transportaton of fsh caught on coral reefs to restaurants and qualty supermarkets. The fsh are kept alve untl just pror to consumpton to ensure ther freshness (Lau and Parry Jones, 1999). They are generally hgh value-to-volume products, partcularly n comparson to the fresh fsh trade (Sadovy et al., 2004), and can fetch prces up to fve tmes that of freshly chlled reef fsh (Gager, 1990). Hong Kong s the locus of actvty for the lve reef food fsh trade, beng a major fsh tradng and mport market (Johannes and Repen, 1996). Approxmately 60 percent of the nternatonal trade s exported to Hong Kong (Sadovy and Vncent, 2002), amountng to 15,000 to 20,000 tonnes each year at a value of US$350 mllon (Muldoon and MacGlvray, 2004). Around 50 percent of Hong Kong s lve reef fsh are then shpped on to southern manland Chna (Sadovy and Vncent, 2002). The man supplyng countres nclude Australa, Malaysa, Indonesa, Phlppnes and Thaland, augmented by supply from as many as ffteen Asa-Pacfc countres (ACFD, 2003). Demand for lve reef food fsh can experence seasonalty n response to events such as Chnese New Year and Mother s Day. At these tmes both wholesale and retal prces can be hgher than usual for hghvalue fsh and some medum-value speces (Sadovy et al., 2004). The preferred fsh sze for table consumpton s approxmately g (Johannes and Repen, 1996) wth the hghest prces acheved by fsh g (Gager, 1990). Speces may fetch hgher prces due to ther rarty. For example, both the Gant grouper and the Humphead wrasse are lsted as vulnerable on the Internatonal Unon for Conservaton of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red Lst of Threatened Speces and may sell for hgher prces as a result (Lau and Parry Jones, 1999; Johnston, 2005). The lve reef food fsh trade s susceptble to economc shocks, such as the recent Asan Economc Crss. Despte the ntal protecton of Hong Kong s economy by the strong currency, rsng unemployment and lowered economc actvty had affected demand for reef fsh by 1999 (Johnston, 2005). Lower value speces were worst affected due to the low vablty of collectng and transportng these speces, partcularly when faced wth ncreasng supply costs (Johnston, 2005). The trade has faled to recover 1

2 IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedngs snce t declned by up to one thrd n 1999 as part of the mpact of the Asan Economc Crss (Sadovy et al., 2004). The composton of trade has also changed n the wake of the Asan Economc Crss. Hghvalue speces have experenced ncreasng demand 1,000 tonnes n 1998 to 2,500 tonnes n 2003 (Johnston, 2005). The mport of lower valued speces has decreased from 15,000 to 5,000 tonnes over the same tme perod (Johnston, 2005). Demand for lve reef fsh has also been affected by Severe Acute Respratory Syndrome (SARS), whch was frst dentfed n the Chnese provnce of Guandong n November 2002, and had reached Hong Kong by February 2003 (Pet-Soede et al., 2004). The outbreak caused a short-term decrease n demand for lve reef food fsh due to the resultng declne n outdoor dnng, toursm and ar travel servces (Pet-Soede et al., 2004). By the end of June 2003, the World Health Organsaton cleared Hong Kong from nfecton. Although SARS created a temporary downturn n consumer prces, there was a greater mpact on the exportng countres (Sadovy et al., 2004). The purpose of ths paper s to estmate demand functons for wholesale lve reef fsh prces n Hong Kong. The Lnear Approxmate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) s employed and tme-seres data from January 1999 to July 2003 was sourced from the Internatonal Marnelfe Allance (IMA). Quantty data was sourced from formal data collected by the Hong Kong Agrculture, Fsheres and Conservaton Department (AFCD). Unfortunately, the IMA no longer collects ths data, so analyses could not be extended to more recent tmes. Ths analyss s part of a larger project on the economcs and marketng of lve reef food fsh funded by the Australan Centre for Internatonal Agrcultural Research (ACIAR). Results from ths paper wll be ntegrated wth estmated supply functons (by speces and country of orgn) to analyse the mpact of lkely future changes n supply and demand (such as new technology, changng management practces and economc growth). The paper proceeds as follows. The methodology of the study s presented n Secton 2 along wth a bref dscusson of hypotheses on expected own-prce, cross-prce and ncome elastctes for lve reef fsh based on demand theory. The results are presented and dscussed n Secton 3 and conclusons are drawn n Secton 4. DEMAND THEORY AND ITS APPLICATION TO LIVE REEF FISH Demand theory proposes that many factors contrbute to the demand for a good, ncludng prce, consumer ncome, market sze, relatve prces of substtutes/complements, consumer preferences, and other specal nfluences (such as specal events) (Sloman and Norrs, 2002). The effect of the prce of the good, the prce of substtute/complement goods and consumer ncome on quantty demanded can be determned and quantfed by own-prce, cross-prce and ncome elastctes, respectvely (Sectons 2.1 to 2.3). The frst emprcal demand studes estmated sngle equaton demand functons that were lnear n ther parameters, of whch the double log was the most common functonal specfcaton (e.g. DeVoretz (1982), Kabr and Rdler (1984), Brd (1986), Hermann and Ln (1988), DeVoretz and Salvanes (1993), Hermann et al. (1993)). The double log specfcaton remans common today, however sngle equaton models are generally not theoretcally consstent as they do not take nto account prce changes of other goods whch may subsequently affect the demand for the consdered good. To account for ths, a growng number of demand analyses are estmatng a system of demand functons usng the concept of weak separablty. Ths concept assumes that a consumer separates ther consumpton nto dscrete groups, and 2

3 IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedngs that the preferences for such groups can be descrbed ndependently of each other. The demand functon for each group of goods s then specfed wthn a system of demand functons. The AIDS (Almost Ideal Demand System) framework has become the most common functonal form for specfyng demand systems snce t was devsed by Deaton and Muellbauer (1980). It s based on usng a system of budget share equatons n order to estmate parameters and ndvdual demand elastctes (Smth et al., 1996). The Lnear Approxmate AIDS model (LA/AIDS) has been used prevously n other seafood market analyses (Smth et al., 1996; Johnson et al., 1998) and wll be adopted for ths paper. It removes the non-lnear component of the budget share equatons by ntroducng the Stone s Prce Index, P (Equaton 2) (Smth et al., 1996). Ths smplfes the estmaton by reducng the number of parameters to be estmated, thereby mprovng the effcency of the parameter estmates (Smth et al., 1996). The LA/AIDS model can be expressed n the general form: e w = α + ϕtt + j ln p j + β ln + v (1) P where α, ϕ t, j and β are coeffcents to be estmated econometrcally, w s the share of total fsh pq expendture allocated to the th fsh speces w =, t denotes a lnear tme trend (ncluded to e account for demographc changes), p j s the prce of the jth group of fsh, e s the total expendture on lve reef fsh and P s the Stone's Prce Index calculated as: n ln P = w ln p. (2) = 1 Income and market sze does not need to be specfed n the model, as e ncreases wth these factors. The mpact of seasonalty (due to festval events) and the economc shock of SARS on demand wll be tested through the ntroducton of dummy varables (a methodology adopted from Johnson et al. (1998)). The ntegraton of a dummy varable requres the ntercept to be respecfed as: α = γ + θ C + ωs (3) where θ and ω are coeffcents to be estmated econometrcally, C s a dummy varable ndcatng the presence of a seasonal factor, n ths case Chnese New Year, and S s a dummy varable ndcatng the presences of an economc shock, n ths case, SARS. Hence, the dummy varables may be used as ntercept shfters, and the prce elastctes of demand may be allowed to vary as budget shares vary durng the year. 3

4 IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedngs To be consstent wth demand theory, the followng restrctons should be mposed on the model: j j = 0 (homogenety) = (symmetry) j j α = 1 and β = = 0 (the addng up condtons). j Monthly prce data was sourced from the IMA who conducted surveys of wholesale and retal outlets over the tme perod from January 1999 to July Wholesale prces were montored monthly at wholesalers/dstrbutors n Quarry Bay and Wancha, and twce weekly from markets n Kwun Tong and Aberdeen. Quantty data was sourced from formal data collected by the Hong Kong Census and Statstcs Department (CSD) and data provded voluntarly by traders to the Hong Kong Agrculture, Fsheres and Conservaton Department (AFCD). 1 The followng subsectons revew the lterature and propose hypotheses regardng own-prce, cross-prce and ncome elastctes of demand for lve reef fsh. Prce elastcty of demand Prce elastctes of demand measure the responsveness of quantty demanded to a change n prce, and are specfc to the product, market condtons and tme perod over whch the analyss s done. To the author s knowledge, there has been no prevous demand analyss of the lve reef fsh market. However, there are several trends that may be extrapolated from demand analyss of seafood n general (see Asche and Bjorndal (1999)). Frst, the demand for fsh s elastc for most speces. There are a few exceptons to ths such as demand for canned tuna (e.g. Wallstrom and Wessells (1995)). Second, more valuable seafood generally exhbt more elastc demand. Thrd, retal demand, whch s closer to the consumer, s generally more elastc than demand closer to the producer (such as ex-vessel demand), whch may be attrbutable to the nelastcty of supply over the short term. Applyng these generalsatons to the lve reef fsh trade, t s expected that the prce elastctes of lve reef fsh prce are hgh as most lve reef fsh are relatvely hghly prced compared wth fresh fsh. It s also expected that relatvely hgh-value speces exhbt greater elastctes than relatvely low-value speces. Durng festval events, such as Chnese New Year and Mother s Day, prce elastctes may be less elastc. 1 The relablty of ths data s hndered as Hong Kong-lcensed lve-fsh transport vessels are not requred to declare mports by sea. Ths totals approxmately 100 vessels. The voluntarly declaraton of mports from these vessels to the AFCD s estmated to be underreported by half. Ths analyss uses both CSD data, whch reflects mports by ar, and AFCD data, whch reflects transport by sea. 4

5 IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedngs Cross-prce elastctes of demand Cross prce elastctes measure the responsveness of the demand for one good to a change n prce of another. The closest substtutes tend to be smlar speces as well as smlar product forms (eg. lve, freshly chlled, frozen, canned). Substtuton between seafood and other meats s consderably less than the substtuton between seafood products (Sloman and Norrs, 2002). Furthermore, there s lttle substtuton between fsh caught from the wld and those farmed for dfferent speces (Jaffry et al., 2000), wth some substtuton for smlar speces (Asche et al., 2001). It s expected that ndvdual lve reef fsh speces wll be substtutes, especally speces of smlar value, and ths substtutablty s lkely to be affected by seasonalty. Income elastctes of demand Income elastctes measure the responsveness of demand to a change n consumer ncomes, and s affected by the tme perod over whch they are measured (the shorter the tme perod the lower the ncome elastcty of demand) and the degree of necessty of the good (the more necessary the good, the lower the ncome elastcty of demand) (Sloman and Norrs 2002). Most fsh speces exhbt postve elastctes and are termed normal goods, such that an ncrease n ncome wll result n ncreased demand. Dey (2000) argue that lve fsh have a hgher ncome elastcty compared to other presentatons of seafood, and Gager (1990) notes that the consumpton of lve reef food fsh n Hong Kong s dependent on ncome rather than prce, and could be consdered a luxury good (where the ncome elastcty s greater than 1). It s expected that lve reef fsh are normal goods, wth the relatvely hgher-valued speces exhbtng hgher ncome elastctes than the relatvely lower-valued speces. Moreover, t s expected that demand s susceptble to events that affect ncome, such as the recent Asan Economc Crss (the data do not cover ths tme perod so ths wll not be tested) and the SARS outbreak. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Analyss of wholesale demand for lve reef fsh n Hong Kong s performed n two stages. Frst, the nne major lve reef fsh speces are dvded nto two categores hgh and low-valued speces accordng to Table 1. A demand system s estmated usng these two speces categores (Secton 3.1). A second demand system s estmated on the two most traded speces only, Leopard coral trout and Green grouper (Secton 3.2). Leopard coral trout s a relatvely hgh-value speces that s largely sourced from wldstocks (ether as adults, or as juvenles and then cultured), where Green grouper s a relatvely low-value speces that s largely cultured (approxmately 60 percent are cultured from hatchery-bred juvenles and 40 percent from wld-caught juvenles) (Mke Rmmer, pers comm.) 2. The ncluson of dummy varables ndcatng Chnese New Year and Mothers' Day were not sgnfcant and reduced the sgnfcance of the overall models. They have therefore been omtted from the analyses. 2 Mke Rmmer, Prncpal Fsheres Bologst, Queensland Department of Prmary Industres, Australa 5

6 IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedngs Also, for each regresson the Durbn-Watson values were all sgnfcant ndcatng that the error terms are autocorrelated. Subsequent results should be vewed n the lght of ths. Table 1: Average monthly quantty traded and weghted average wholesale prce of key lve reef fsh speces mported nto Hong Kong (January 1999 to December 2003) Average monthly quantty traded (t) Weghted average wholesale prce (HK$/kg) Aggregate of all speces Hgh-value speces Hghfn grouper Humphead wrasse Leopard coral trout Gant grouper Tger grouper Spotted coral trout Flowery grouper Low-value speces Green grouper Mangrove snapper Demand for lve reef fsh - aggregated nto hgh and low-valued speces Results for the ndvdual budget share equatons (provded n Appendx Table A.1) are sgnfcant at the 5 percent level. Parameter estmates from Appendx Table A.1 are used to obtan prce elastctes (Table 2) and expendture elastctes (Table 3) of demand for each category of hgh and low-value speces. All prce and expendture elastctes are sgnfcant at the 5 percent level. The own-prce elastctes of both the hgh and low-value categores (bolded n Table 2) are nelastc. The hgh-value own-prce elastcty s larger than the low-value own-prce elastcty n accordance wth expectatons. The cross-prce elastctes are negatve (aganst expectatons) ndcatng they are complementary goods. For example, when the prce of hgh-value speces ncreases, the quantty demanded of low-value speces also ncreases. Whle ths s unexpected and may be due to data defcences, t may also ndcate that a range of fsh s consumed smultaneously. For example, quanttes of hgh-value speces may be complemented by the consumpton of low-value speces at the same meal, and vce versa. Table 2: Prce elastctes for hgh and low-value speces a Elastcty of demand for: Hgh-value speces Low-value speces Wth respect to the prce of: Hgh-value -0.81** (16.08) -0.12** (2.91) Low-value -0.82** (3.76) -0.48** (2.72) a Own-prce (n bold) and cross-prce elastctes are calculated usng the uncompensated elastcty formula: Ε = ( j β w j ) / w j, where j s the Kronecker delta whch s equal to 1 where = j and zero otherwse. Values n parentheses are t-statstcs. ** ndcates sgnfcance at the 5 percent level. 6

7 IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedngs The expendture elastctes (Table 3) are postve ndcatng that they are normal goods as expendture on lve reef fsh ncreases, the consumpton of lve reef fsh also ncreases (n keepng wth expectatons). The expendture elastcty of low-value speces s elastc, ndcatng that when expendture on lve reef fsh ncreases, relatvely more Green grouper wll be purchased. Contrary to expectatons, the expendture elastcty of hgh-value speces s nelastc (although, only slghtly lower than unty), ndcatng that when expendture on lve reef fsh ncreases, relatvely less Leopard coral trout wll be purchased. Table 3: Lve reef food fsh expendture elastctes for hgh and low-value speces a Hgh-value speces Low-value speces 0.93** (25.48) 1.30** (8.26) a The uncompensated expendture elastcty was calculated usng the formula: I = 1+ β /. Values n parentheses are t-statstcs, ** ndcates sgnfcance at the 5 percent level. w A SARS dummy varable was ntroduced to analyse the mpact of economc shocks on demand (Table 4). The results ndcate that SARS caused expendture shares to shft from hgh-value speces to low-value speces by approxmately 7 percent. Table 4: Parameter estmates for the SARS dummy varable, by value category Hgh-value speces Low-value speces ** (3.88) 0.072** (3.87) Note: Values n parentheses are t-statstcs. ** ndcates sgnfcance at the 5 percent level. Demand for lve reef fsh - ndvdual speces Results for the ndvdual budget share equatons for Leopard coral trout and Green grouper (provded n Appendx Table A.2) are sgnfcant at the 5 percent level. Parameter estmates from Appendx Table A.2 are used to obtan wholesale prce elastctes (Table 5) and expendture elastctes (Table 6) of demand for each speces. In general, the ndvdual speces results follow the category results of the prevous secton. The own-prce elastctes are sgnfcant and nelastc. The Leopard coral trout own-prce elastcty s hgher than the Green grouper own-prce elastcty n keepng wth the expectaton that the hgher valued speces would have a hgher own-prce elastcty. The cross-prce elastcty of Leopard coral trout wth respect to Green grouper s sgnfcant, negatve (ndcatng that the two speces are complements) and nelastc, although not greatly less than unty. The expendture elastctes shown n Table 6 are postve suggestng that both speces are normal goods. The results suggest that Leopard coral trout s expendture-nelastc (0.95) whereas Green grouper s expendture-elastc (1.27). The expendture-elastc nature of Green grouper suggests a relatvely large senstvty of demand to changes n expendture, whch s consstent wth the fndngs of Hanson et al. (2001) for aquacultured catfsh. On the otherhand, the expendture-nelastc nature of Leopard coral trout 7

8 IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedngs suggests a relatvely small senstvty of demand to expendture, whch was not expected gven that Leopard coral trout s a hgher-valued fsh compared wth Green grouper. Table 5: Prce elastctes for two speces, Leopard coral trout and Green grouper a Leopard coral trout Green grouper Wth respect to: Leopard coral trout -0.83** (14.30) -0.12** (2.74) Green grouper -0.92** (2.94) (1.44) a Own-prce (n bold) and cross-prce elastctes are calculated usng the uncompensated elastcty formula: Ε = ( β w ) / w, where s the Kronecker delta whch s equal to 1 where = j and zero otherwse. j j j j Values n parentheses are t-statstcs. ** ndcates sgnfcance at the 5 percent level, * ndcates sgnfcance at the 10 percent level. Table 6: Lve reef food fsh expendture elastctes for Leopard coral trout and Green grouper a Leopard coral trout Green grouper 0.95** (26.66) 1.27** (6.56) a The uncompensated expendture elastcty was calculated usng the formula: I = 1+ β /. Values n parentheses are t-statstcs, ** ndcates sgnfcance at the 5 percent level. w Parameter estmates for the SARS dummy varable by speces are shown n Table 7. The results ndcate that SARS caused expendture shares to shft from Leopard coral trout to Green grouper by approxmately 10 percent. Table 7: Parameter estmates for the SARS dummy varable, by speces Leopard coral trout Green grouper -0.10** (4.67) 0.10** (4.67) Note: Values n parentheses are t-statstcs. ** ndcates sgnfcance at the 5 percent level, * ndcates sgnfcance at the 10 percent level. CONCLUSIONS Wholesale demand systems for lve reef food fsh consumed n Hong Kong were estmated usng the Lnear Approxmate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). Monthly tme seres data for January 1999 to July 2003 was obtaned from the Internatonal Marnelfe Allance (for prces) and the Hong Kong Agrculture, Fsheres and Conservaton Department (for quanttes). The demand systems were estmated frst for lve reef fsh aggregated by hgh and low-value, and second for the two most hghly traded fsh speces; Leopard coral trout (relatvely hgh-value and mostly wld caught) and Green grouper (relatvely low-value and mostly cultured). For both the aggregated and ndvdual speces results, the own-prce elastctes are negatve and nelastc, ndcatng that quantty demanded changes by a smaller percentage than prce. The relatvely hgh-valued speces exhbt a hgher own-prce elastcty than the relatvely low-valued speces. The cross prce elastctes are negatve and nelastc, ndcatng that lve reef fsh speces are generally 8

9 IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedngs complements hgh-value speces are complemented by the consumpton of low-value speces at the same meal. Lve reef fsh speces were found to be normal goods. The results suggest that low-value speces (ncludng Green grouper) are expendture-elastc, whereas hgh-value speces (Leopard coral trout) are expendture-nelastc. When analysng the mpact of SARS on demand for lve reef fsh, t was found to shft expendture from hgh-value speces to low-value speces by 7 percent. When nvestgatng the man lve reef fsh speces from each of these value categores, ths shft was estmated to be 10 percent. Ths may be the result of a decrease n patronage at restaurants where Leopard coral trout s largely purchased, and an ncrease n consumpton of supermarket-purchased lve reef fsh where Green grouper s largely purchased. Chnese New Year was not found to have a sgnfcant mpact on demand. Ths may be because ncome growth was low durng the tme perod over whch the data was collected. Chnese New Year may be found to have a sgnfcant mpact durng perods of strong economc growth. Unreported results provde some evdence that retal demand for aggregated lve reef fsh s more elastc than wholesale demand, whch s smlar to the results of analyss of other seafood studes. However, n general, very lttle dfference was found between results usng wholesale and retal prces, ndcatng strong competton n these nodes of the market chan. Ths s supported by Petersen and Muldoon (2006) who found that wholesale and retal lve reef fsh prces n Hong Kong are not ndependent, but contegrated as part of a system of lve reef fsh prces. These results have a number of supply mplcatons. Demand for lve reef fsh s relatvely unresponsve to prce compared wth other fsh products (most fsh products are prce elastc (Asche and Bjorndal 1999)). Hence, quantty suppled may be determned more by supply-sde factors (such as avalablty of stock, and transport and transacton costs) than demand-sde factors (such as prce). Furthermore, consumers were found to substtute hgh-value speces for low-value speces durng the SARS outbreak. Hence, whle low-value speces provde the lowest gross revenue per unt volume (net revenue mnus supply and transacton costs) compared wth hgh-value speces, they may pose the lowest supply rsk, at least when consderng demand-related nfluences. These results should be consdered wth cauton gven the defcency of data. Unfortunately, prce data s no longer beng collected and hence, prevents analyss for a longer tme-perod. Ths analyss has been performed as part of a larger study on the economcs and marketng of the lve reef fsh trade. Further research that wll be conducted as part of ths larger study ncludes estmaton of supply curves from major mportng countres, ntegraton of supply and demand analyss collectvely, and dsaggregated by country of orgn and speces, and market chan analyss for major supplyng country. Implcatons of marculture developments on supply, demand and stock sustanablty, and possble neffcences and market power along the supply chan wll be nvestgated. The results wll be used to nform polcy recommendatons amed at poverty reducton for fshers n low-ncome countres, and sustanablty of the lve reef fsheres. 9

10 IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedngs REFERENCES Agrculture, Forestry and Conservaton Department (AFCD) Report on Lve Marne Fsh Trade. Government of Hong Kong: Hong Kong. Asche, F. and Bjørndal, T Demand elastctes for fsh: a revew. GLOBEFISH Specal Seres, Vol. 9 ( Asche, F., Bjorndal, T., and Young, J.A Market nteractons for aquaculture products. Aquaculture Economcs and Management 5(5/6): Brd, P Econometrc estmaton of world salmon demand. Marne Resource Economcs 3: Deaton, A.S. and Muellbauer, J An almost deal demand system. Amercan Economc Revew 70: DeVoretz, D An econometrc demand model for Canadan Salmon. Canadan Journal of Agrcultural Economcs 30: DeVoretz, D.J., and Salvanes, K.G Market structure for farmed salmon. Amercan Journal of Agrcultural Economcs 79: Dey, M.M Analyss of demand for fsh n Bangladesh, Journal of Aquaculture Economcs and Management 4(1/2): Gager, P.J Market Potental for Indonesan Seafarmed Products, Rome: FAO ( Hanson, T., Hte, D., And Bosworth, B A translog demand model for nherted trats n aquacultured catfsh, Aquaculture Economcs and Management, 5 : Herrmann, M.L., and Ln, B.H., The demand and supply of Norwegan Atlantc salmon n the Unted States and the European Communty. Canadan Journal of Agrcultural Economcs 38: Herrmann, M.L., Mttelhammer, R.C., and Ln, B.H., Import demand for Norwegan farmed Atlantc salmon and wld Pacfc salmon n North Amerca, Japan and the EC. Canadan Journal of Agrcultural Economcs 41: Jaffry, S., Pascoe, S., Taylor, G., and Zabala, U., Prce nteractons between salmon and wld caught fsh speces on the Spansh market, Aquaculture Economcs and Management 4(3/4): ). Johannes, R. and Repen, M Envronmental, economc and socal mplcatons of the fshery for lve coral reef food fsh n Asa and the Western Pacfc Summary, SPC Lve Reef Fsh Informaton Bulletn Vol 1. Johnson, A.J., Durham, C.A. and Wessells, C.R. 1998, Seasonalty n Japanese Household Demand for Meat and Seafood, Agrbusness 14: Johnston, B.G Project Overvew, SPC/ACIAR Workshop on Economcs and Market Analyss of the Lve Reef Food Fsh Trade n Asa Pacfc, Background Paper 1, Noumea New Caledona, March 2005 Kabr, M., and N.G. Rdler The Demand for Atlantc Salmon n Canada. Canadan Journal of Agrcultural Economcs, 32: Lau, P.P.F and Parry-Jones, R The Hong Kong Trade n Lve Reef Fsh for Food, TRAFFIC East Asa and World Wde Fund for Nature Hong Kong, Hong Kong Muldoon, G.J and McGlvray, F Economc and Trade ssues, p n J. Maclean and Y. Sadovy, (eds). The Lve Reef Fsh Trade. ABD Pacfc Studes Seres. Asan Development Bank, Manla. Pet-Soede, L., Horuodono, H., and Sudarsono SARS and the the lve food fsh trade n Indonesa: Some anecdotes, SPC Lve Reef Fsh Informaton Bulletn 12: 3-9. Petersen, E.H. and Muldoon G Wholesale and retal prce ntegraton n the lve reef food fsh trade. Paper presented at the 50 th Annual Conference of the Australan Agrcultural and Resource Economcs Socety, 8-10 February 2006, Syndey, Australa. 10

11 IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedngs Sadovy, Y.J., and Vncent, A.C.J., Ecologcal Issues and the Trades n Lve Reef Fshes, In Coral Reef Fshers Elsever Scence: USA. Sadovy Y.J., Donaldson T.J., Graham T.R., McGlvray F., Muldoon G.J., Phllpps M.J., Rmmer M.A., Smth A. and Yeetng B Whle stocks last: the lve reef food fsh trade. ABD Pacfc Studes Seres. Asan Development Bank, Manla. Sloman, J., and Norrs, K., Economcs 2 nd Edton. New South Wales: Pearson Educaton Australa. Smth, P., Denns, F., and Proctor, W South Korean Market for Seafood, ABARE Research Report 96.3, Canberra Wallstrom, P., and Wessells, C.R., Analyss of U.S. consumer demand for canned tuna: Impact of dolphn-safe controversy, n Internatonal Cooperaton for Fsheres and Aquaculture Development: Proceedngs of the 7 th Bennal Conference of the Internatonal Insttute of Fsheres Economcs and Trade, Vol 3 (D.S. Lao, Ed). 11

12 IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedngs APPENDIX Table A.1: LA/AIDS parameter results for hgh and low-value speces Dependent varable: Dependent varable: w hgh-value speces w low-value speces Constant 1.32** (3.46) (0.84) Ln(hgh prce) 0.11** (3.27) -0.11** (3.27) Ln(low prce) -0.11** (3.27) 0.11** (3.27) ln(e/p) -0.06* (1.90) 0.06* (1.91) Tme 0.00** (5.31) -0.00** (5.31) Sars -0.07** (3.88) 0.07** (3.87) F-stat (p-value) 17.05** (0.00) 17.08** (0.00) DW Note: Values n parentheses are t-statstcs except for the F-stat where numbers n parenthess are p-values. ** ndcates sgnfcance at the 5 percent level, * ndcates sgnfcance at the 10 percent level. Table A.2: LA/AIDS parameter results for Leopard coral trout and Green grouper Dependent varable: Dependent varable: w Leopard coral trout w Green grouper Constant 1.12** (3.00) (-0.32) Ln(LCT prce) 0.11** (2.87) -0.11** (2.87) Ln(GG prce) -0.11** (2.87) 0.11** (2.87) ln(e/p) (1.38) 0.04 (1.38) Tme 0.00** (4.90) -0.00** (4.90) Sars -0.10** (4.67) 0.10** (4.67) F-stat (p-value) 12.36** (0.00) 12.36** (0.00) DW Note: Values n parentheses are t-statstcs except for the F-stat where numbers n parenthess are p-values. ** ndcates sgnfcance at the 5 percent level, * ndcates sgnfcance at the 10 percent level. 12