Dr. Steve Larsen Director, Pork Safety National Pork Board

Transcription

1 RMC 2008 Degree of Doneness Risk Assessment Pork Checkoff Dr. Steve Larsen Director, Pork Safety National Pork Board 1

2 Outline National Pork Board Background Risk Assessment Approach and Questions Retail Study Risk Assessment Input Risk Recap and Conclusion Questions/Comments 2

3 National Pork Board 15 Member Board Nominated by importers and producers Voted on by Pork Act Delegate Body Appointed by the Secretary of Ag At least 12 states represented Pork Act Delegate Body Return-to-state funding (how much each state receives 43 state associations) Checkoff rate Election of National Pork Board nominees to U.S. Secretary of Agriculture. 3

4 National Pork Board Checkoff Rate ($40 $50 million) 40 cents per $100 Everyone Pays/Everyone Benefits Oversight Ag Marketing Service (AMS) of USDA Pork Act Purpose Promotion Research Education No lobbying or influencing government 4

5 Organizational Structure 75 staff members 2007 budget of $59.8 million $11 million returned to the states $48.8 million for national programming For more information: Call PORK(7675) 5

6 Need for Research NPB: Consumer would prefer pork cooked to temperatures below FSIS s recommendation: pork should be cooked to 160 F (USDA) Need: Determine if there an increased measurable risk to the public by cooking pork to temperatures less than 160 F? 6

7 Background 2006 Grant awarded Determined risk management question(s) Met with USDA-FSIS policy, technical issues Refined risk assessment to meet risk management needs Conducted Salmonella survey in retail pork Carried out risk assessment Submitted RA to NPB for independent review 7

8 Reframed Risk Assessment Salmonella is the pathogen of most concern for fresh cooked pork Retail- to-consumer consumption are the most important stages of the product pathway Final temperature endpoint at the geometric center of cooked meats eliminates the need to consider cooking method 8

9 Reframed - Risk Assessment Q s 9

10 Overall Approach 10

11 Exposure Assessment Model Retail Module Consumer Module 1. Growth a. Transportation b. Storage 2. Thermal Inactivation 3. Consumption 11

12 Retail Module: Retail Survey Results Overall Prevalence for Confirmed Individual Samples Product Group Individual Samples Confirmed Samples Individual Rates PCE 1, % PCUE % PRE 1, % PRUE % Total 4, % 12

13 Retail Module: Retail Survey Results MPN by Product Types Product Type No. (+) Individual Samples MPN Range (MPN/g) PCE Avg MPN (MPN/g) PRE

14 Modeled Distributions of Salmonella spp Levels at Retail CFU/g PCE PRE PCUE PRUE th 10th 15th 20th 25th 50th 75th 90th Percentiles 95th 97.5th 99th 99.5th 99.9th 14

15 Distributions of Transport Duration from Retail to Consumer s Home and Temperature, Summary Statistics Transport Durations Transport temperature Statistics* (Minutes) (C) Mean SD Percentiles 5 th th th th th th th th th th th th th th *Based on 10,000 iteration runs 15

16 Distributions of Home Refrigeration of Pork Duration and Temperature, Summary Statistics Statistics* Refrigerator temperature (C) Refrigeration Duration (days) Mean SD Percentiles 5 th th th th th th th th th th th th th th *Based on 10,000 iteration runs 16

17 Consumer Module: 2) Thermal Inactivation 17 Cooking Temperature End- Points 145 F (62.8 C) 150 F (65.6 C) 155 F (68.3 C) 160 F (71.1 C) Baseline Geometric Center Lateral and radial heat penetration Cumulative thermal inactivation treatment of microorganisms

18 Salmonella Inactivation at Various Cooking Endpoint Temperatures Logs of Salmonella inactivation at given temperatures Statistics* 160ºF 155ºF 150ºF 145ºF Mean SD Percentiles 5th th th th th th *based on 10,000 iteration runs

19 1.8E E E-02 Risk per Serving: Alternative Cooking Endpoint Temperatures, Pork Chop Enhanced Risk per /Serving 1.2E E E E E E E F 155F 150F 145F 5th 10th 15th 20th 25th 50th 75th 90th 95th 97.5th 99th 99.5th 99.9th Percentiles 19

20 1.8E E-02 Risk per Serving: Alternative Cooking Endpoint Temperatures, Pork Roast Enhanced Risk per serving 1.4E E E E E E E E F 155F 150F 145F 5th 10th 15th 20th 25th 50th 75th 90th Percentiles 95th 97.5th 99th 99.5th 99.9th 20

21 Recap Evaluation for alternative cooking endpoint temperatures at 145, 150 and 155 F showed risks per serving were similar to those predicted for the baseline scenario at 160 F except for the upper extreme percentiles Upper extreme percentiles represent the risks associated with extreme temperature/storage abuse Levels of Salmonella spp were predicted and corresponded to risks per serving in the range of 10-4 to

22 Recap Under worst-case scenario, surviving Salmonella spp levels and their corresponding increased risks per serving were predicted only in the extreme percentiles for enhanced pork meats at three alternative cooking endpoint temperatures Levels in un-enhanced pork meats expected to be even lower 22

23 Conclusion Under likely retail and consumer handling practices prior to consumer cooking, enhanced and un-enhanced pork chops and roasts can be cooked to 145 F for 15 seconds without risk of salmonellosis 23

24 Thank you for your time Any Questions? 24