U.S. Inflation Monitor

Transcription

1 May, Copyright Floating Path. rights reserved. See full Terms of Service.

2 Where s The Inflation Annual Inflation In Broad Consumer Prices Ticked Down In April To... Median Trimmed Mean - ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Flexible Sticky.. - ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Inflation Has Fallen Back Below., And Trimmed Is Only Slightly Above. U.S. Consumer Price Index Category Food Away Trimmed. Flexible Sticky. Unlike the headline from the BLS, which calculates a weighted average of all prices, the Cleveland Fed's Median looks at the median price change of items in the basket. The Trimmed-Mean () removes the highest and lowest of items from the basket. The Atlanta Fed reports the Flexible and Sticky, which aggregate select components that are especially responsive or unresponsive to economic conditions...9 Goods Median. D YoY () Weight () D YoY Contr. () Total.. Food.. Food At Home May, Slide

3 The Primary Driver Consumer Prices For Goods Continue To Deflate - - Food - ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' - - Goods ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Food Prices Are Up. From A Year Ago While Prices Are Up ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Food Food Away From Home Food At Home ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' May, Slide

4 About Shelter Inflation Shelter Price Inflation Has Been Rapid, And Accounts For. Of The Total Shelter - - ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Have Been The Primary Inflation Driver Over The Past Year U.S. Consumer Price Index Category D YoY () Weight () D YoY Contr. () Total... Food.. Food Away.. Recreation Edu./Commun Water/Trash.. Hhold Ops Goods Hhold Furn Med. Care... Recreation Edu./Commun Alcoholic Bev. Other Shelter..9. Food At Home Apparel... Transportation Med. Care... Transportation Other... May, Slide

5 Inflation In Goods Medical Care Commodity Prices Have Increased At. From A Year Ago Medical Care Household.9. - Supplies -. - ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Alcoholic Beverages Apparel - ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Prices Of Most Other Goods Are Either Growing Very Slowly Or Deflating - - Transportation Recreation - ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '.9 Other. Goods Education & Communication - ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' May, Slide

6 Inflation In Medical Care Prices Have Increased. From A Year Ago - - Water & Trash Shelter ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Medical.9 Care Household Operations - ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Price Inflation For Education & Communication Has Sharply Rolled Over ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Transportation Recreation Other Personal Education & - Communication - ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' May, Slide

7 Goods vs Essentials As Household Have Increased In Price, Furnishings Have Become More Affordable ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Shelter Household Operations Household Furnishings Apparel ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Both And Related To Medical Care Are Rising Faster Than ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Transportation Medical Care Medical Care Transportation ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' May, Slide

8 Goods vs Electives Prices Of Items Related To Education & Communication Are Deflating ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Education & Communication Recreation Recreation Education & Communication ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Water & Trash Have Been Increasing Faster Than For Years ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Water & Trash Alcoholic Beverages Other Personal Other Goods ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' May, Slide

9 Cumulative Price Changes Over Time Over The Past Several Decades, Inflation In Has Far Outpaced Goods Have Been Volatile While Growth Has Been More Stable U.S. Consumer Price Index Levels (9-9=) U.S. Consumer Price Index Levels (9-9=) Food Away Goods Food Food At Home ' ' '9 '9 '9 ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '9 '9 '9 ' ' ' ' ' Food ' ' '9 '9 '9 ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '9 '9 '9 ' ' ' ' ' May, Slide 9

10 PCE vs Inflation Has Been Increasing Faster Than PCE, The Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure U.S. Inflation Measures YoY PCE.. There Remains A Gap Between The Trimmed Mean Measures U.S. Inflation Measures YoY.... Trimmed Fed's. Target Fed's. Target -... Trimmed PCE ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' PCE Measures Excludes Food And Fed's. Target.9.. ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ', Bureau of Economic Analysis ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' How The And PCE Are Different Formula Effect - The BLS () uses the modified Laspeyres formula while the BEA (PCE) uses the Fisher Price formula. Weight Effect - The relative importance, or weights, accorded to components of the respective indices vary. In addition, rebalances every years while PCE rebalances quarterly. Scope Effect - captures expenditures by only urban consumers while PCE is broader and includes rural consumers. Unlike the, the PCE includes expenditures from non-profit institutions that serve households. only records out-of-pocket expenditure on medical and health care while PCE includes expenses paid by employers and other federal programs. Other Effects - Differences in seasonal adjustments, how things like airline fares are treated, and other residuals., Bureau of Economic Analysis. May, Slide