Consumer Price Index

Transcription

1 Series No.: SDT : KINGDOM OF TONGA Consumer Price Index Statistical Bulletin OCTOBER 2018 Website: Statistics Department P.O. Box 149 Nuku alofa Kingdom of Tonga dept@stats.gov.to Dec, 2018 Price: $ 2.50

2 OCTOBER 2018 GOVERNMENT OF TONGA SDT: STATISTICS DEPARTMENT CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR OCTOBER 2018 (Base Period: September 2018 = 100.0) Consumer Price Index for OCTOBER 2018 increased by 0.7% With an Annual Inflation Rate of 6.2% This is the first publication of the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) using the base period of September 2018 = 100. It will also be the first to cover price changes to Tongatapu and an extension to include Vava u. The new weights were derived from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) that was conducted by the department in Also the groups will now use all different grouping of the Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP). 1. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2018 increased by 0.7% to from in the previous month. Over the previous two months, the index for all items decreased by 0.6% in September 2018 and increase by 0.1% in August, When comparing the local and imported indices for October 2018 to the previous month, local index increased by 1.1% and import index increase by 0.3%. 3. The annual rate of inflation for October 2018 was 6.2% compares to 5.5% in previous month. The annual inflation for the same month of previous year, October 2017, was 6.4% (Inflation). 4. When comparing the annual change in the local and imported indices for October 2018, the local index recorded an increase of 8.1% and import index increased by 4.8%. Changes in each group compared with the previous month are as follows: A. FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 1.2% Food Group recorded an increase towards the index position of October Although there was a decrease in meat, fish & poultry but this decrease was offset by increase in prices of local and imported fruits and vegetables. Price decrease included chicken leg, suckling pig, and palu. Increase in price of mayonnaise, octopus, chuck beef, corned beef, chicken wing and vegetables and crops such as carrots, taro leaves, both early and late yam, brown coconuts and cassava. B. ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES, TOBACCO AND KAVA -0.4% Price of items in this group recorded a decrease due to decrease in price of Kava and Imported beer compare to the previous month. C. CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR 0.1% Price of items in this group recorded an increase due to increase in price of flip flops compare to the previous month. D. HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY AND GAS 0.5% Price of items in this group recorded an increase due to increase in price of LP Gas, timber and roof iron compare to the previous month. E. FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANCE -0.3% Price of items in this group recorded a decrease due to decrease in price of aluminium foil and detergent compare to the previous month. F. HEALTH 0.0% Price of items in this group recorded no change compare to the previous month.

3 G. TRANSPORT 1.1% Price of items in this group recorded an increase due to increase in price of Petrol and diesel compare to the previous month. H. COMMUNICATION 0.0% Price of items in this group recorded no change compare to the previous month. I. RECREATION AND CULTURE 0.0% Price of items in this group recorded no change compare to the previous month. J. EDUCATION 0.0% Price of items in this group recorded no change compare to the previous month. K. RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS 1.3% Price of items in this group recorded an increase due to increase in price of take-out food compare to the previous month. L. MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES -0.3% Price of items in this group recorded a decrease due to decrease in price of deodorant compare to the previous month Dr. Viliami K. Fifita Government Statistician 2

4 TONGA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX : October October 2018 Local, imported and all items Index Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Local Imported All Items Fig 1: Graphical representation of Consumer Price Index for Total, Local and Imported Components Annual percentage change 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% ANNUAL INFLATION RATE: October October 2018 Local, imported and all items -4.0% Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 local imported All items Fig 2: Graphical representation of Annual Inflation rate (%) for Local, Imported and All Items as measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI) 3

5 TONGA Fig 3: Contribution to % change from previous month, All groups September 2018 to October Group Local Imported Total Food and non-alcoholic beverages 0.5% 0.0% 0.47% Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and kava 0.0% 0.0% -0.05% Clothing and footwear 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 0.0% 0.1% 0.06% Furnishings, household equipment and routine household ma 0.0% 0.0% -0.01% Health 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% Transport 0.0% 0.2% 0.18% Communication 0.0% % Recreation and culture - 0.0% 0.00% Education 0.0% % Restaurants and hotels 0.0% % Miscellaneous goods and services 0.0% 0.0% -0.01% TOTAL 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% Contributions to % change from previous month (September 2018 to October 2018) 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% Local Imported Food and non-alcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and kava Clothing and footwear Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance Health Transport Communication Recreation and culture Education Restaurants and hotels Miscellaneous goods and services 4a

6 TONGA Fig 4: Contribution to % change from last year, All groups October 2017 to October Local Imported Total Food and non-alcoholic beverages 3.0% 0.0% 3.05% Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and kava 1.1% 0.6% 1.71% Clothing and footwear 0.0% 0.1% 0.09% Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 0.0% 0.3% 0.34% Furnishings, household equipment and routine household ma 0.0% 0.0% 0.06% Health 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% Transport 0.0% 1.6% 1.57% Communication -0.6% % Recreation and culture - 0.0% 0.00% Education 0.0% % Restaurants and hotels 0.0% % Miscellaneous goods and services 0.0% 0.0% 0.01% TOTAL 3.6% 2.7% 6.2% 3.5% Contributions to change from last year (October 2017 to October 2018) 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Local Imported -1.0% Food and non-alcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and kava Clothing and footwear Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance Health Transport Communication Recreation and culture Education Restaurants and hotels Miscellaneous goods and services 4b

7 Year/month Clothing and Table 1: Consumer Price Index by major groups (Base Period : September 2018=100.0) OCTOBER 2018 TONGA All items beverages kava footwear and gas maintenance Health Transport on and culture Education and hotels services Weight 100% 39.6% 10.4% 2.1% 11.2% 3.4% 0.3% 15.7% 6.1% 1.1% 2.3% 3.3% 4.5% September October November December January February March April May June July August September October Percentage change between September 2018 and October Percentage change between October 2017 and October Food and nonalcoholic Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and Housing, water, electricity Furnishings, household equipment and household Communicati Recreation Restaurants Miscellaneous goods and 5

8 Table 2: Consumer Price Index and annual inflation rate (Base Period: September 2018=100.0) OCTOBER 2018 TONGA Year/month Local Import All items Monthly change for all items (%) Annual inflation rate for period (%) Average index for year Average annual inflation rate (%) 2017 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October

9 Table 3: Consumer Price Index with local and imported components Percentage change from previous month (Base Period: September 2018 = 100.0) October 2018 TONGA Weights October 2018 September 2018 % Change Local Imported Total Local Imported Total Local Imported Total Local Imported Total A. Food and non-alcoholic beverages 15.2% 24.6% 39.8% % -0.2% 1.2% Food 14.6% 23.2% 37.8% % -0.2% 1.2% Non- alcoholic beverages 0.6% 1.4% 2.0% % -0.1% 0.0% B. Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and kava 6.7% 4.9% 11.6% % -0.1% -0.4% Alcoholic beverages 0.9% 3.2% 4.1% % -0.1% -0.1% Tobacco 4.1% 1.7% 5.8% % 0.0% 0.0% Kava 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% % % C. Clothing and footwear 0.4% 1.7% 2.1% % 0.2% 0.1% Clothing 0.4% 1.5% 1.8% % 0.0% 0.0% Footwear 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% % 1.1% D. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 7.2% 3.6% 10.8% % 1.5% 0.5% Maintenance and repair of the dwelling 0.2% 1.8% 2.0% % 2.1% 1.8% Water supply and miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% % - 0.0% Electricity, gas and other fuels 5.0% 1.8% 6.8% % 1.0% 0.3% E. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household m 0.8% 2.4% 3.2% % -0.4% -0.3% Furniture and furnishings, carpets and other floor coverings 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% % - 0.0% Household appliances 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% % 0.0% Tools and equipment for house and garden 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% % 0.0% Goods and services for routine household maintenance 0.3% 1.5% 1.8% % -0.6% -0.5% F. Health 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% % 0.0% 0.0% Medical products, appliances and equipment 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% % 0.0% Outpatient services 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% % - 0.0% G. Transport 3.4% 13.0% 16.4% % 1.4% 1.1% Operation of personal transport equipment 1.3% 9.9% 11.2% % 1.8% 1.6% Transport services 2.2% 3.1% 5.3% % 0.0% 0.0% H. Communication 5.2% 0.0% 5.2% % - 0.0% Telephone and telefax services 5.2% 0.0% 5.2% % - 0.0% I. Recreation and culture 0.0% 1.1% 1.1% % 0.0% Newspapers, books and stationery 0.0% 1.1% 1.1% % 0.0% J. Education 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% % - 0.0% Pre-primary and primary education 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% % - 0.0% Secondary education 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% % - 0.0% Tertiary education 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% % - 0.0% K. Restaurants and hotels 3.1% 0.0% 3.1% % - 1.3% Catering services 3.1% 0.0% 3.1% % - 1.3% L. Miscellaneous goods and services 0.5% 3.7% 4.2% % -0.3% -0.3% Personal care 0.0% 3.7% 3.7% % -0.3% Financial services n.e.c. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% % - 0.0% Other Services n.e.c. 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% % - 0.0% TOTAL 44.9% 55.1% 100% % 0.3% 0.7% 7

10 Table 4: Consumer Price Index with local and imported components Percentage change from same month of previous year (Base Period: September 2018 = 100.0) October 2018 TONGA Weights October 2018 October 2017 % Change Local Imported Total Local Imported Total Local Imported Total Local Imported Total A. Food and non-alcoholic beverages 15.2% 24.6% 39.8% Food 14.6% 23.2% 37.8% Non- alcoholic beverages 0.6% 1.4% 2.0% B. Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and kava 6.7% 4.9% 11.6% Alcoholic beverages 0.9% 3.2% 4.1% Tobacco 4.1% 1.7% 5.8% Kava 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% C. Clothing and footwear 0.4% 1.7% 2.1% Clothing 0.4% 1.5% 1.8% Footwear 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% D. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 7.2% 3.6% 10.8% Maintenance and repair of the dwelling 0.2% 1.8% 2.0% Water supply and miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% Electricity, gas and other fuels 5.0% 1.8% 6.8% E. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household m 0.8% 2.4% 3.2% Furniture and furnishings, carpets and other floor coverings 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% Household appliances 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% Tools and equipment for house and garden 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% Goods and services for routine household maintenance 0.3% 1.5% 1.8% F. Health 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Medical products, appliances and equipment 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% Outpatient services 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% G. Transport 3.4% 13.0% 16.4% Operation of personal transport equipment 1.3% 9.9% 11.2% Transport services 2.2% 3.1% 5.3% H. Communication 5.2% 0.0% 5.2% Telephone and telefax services 5.2% 0.0% 5.2% I. Recreation and culture 0.0% 1.1% 1.1% Newspapers, books and stationery 0.0% 1.1% 1.1% J. Education 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% Pre-primary and primary education 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% Secondary education 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% Tertiary education 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% K. Restaurants and hotels 3.1% 0.0% 3.1% Catering services 3.1% 0.0% 3.1% L. Miscellaneous goods and services 0.5% 3.7% 4.2% Personal care 0.0% 3.7% 3.7% Financial services n.e.c. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Other Services n.e.c. 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% TOTAL 44.9% 55.1% 100%

11 Group or Subgroup Annual Table 5: Consumer Price Index Groups and subgroups - index numbers (Base Period: September 2018 = 100.0) October 2018 TONGA 2018 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 A. Food and non-alcoholic beverages Food Non- alcoholic beverages B. Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and kava Alcoholic beverages Tobacco Kava C. Clothing and footwear Clothing Footwear D. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels Maintenance and repair of the dwelling Water supply and miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling Electricity, gas and other fuels E. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance Furniture and furnishings, carpets and other floor coverings Household appliances Tools and equipment for house and garden Goods and services for routine household maintenance F. Health Medical products, appliances and equipment Outpatient services G. Transport Operation of personal transport equipment Transport services H. Communication Telephone and telefax services I. Recreation and culture Newspapers, books and stationery J. Education Pre-primary and primary education Secondary education Tertiary education K. Restaurants and hotels Catering services L. Miscellaneous goods and services Personal care Financial services n.e.c Other Services n.e.c ALL GROUPS

12 Table 6: Monthly average price of selected local items TONGA Annual averages Unit Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 ROOT CROPS 1 Talo - Futuna 1 kg Talo - Tonga 1kg Manioke 1 kg Kumala 1 kg Yams; early 1 kg Yams, late 1 kg VEGETABLES 1 Lu 1 kg Tomatoes 1 kg H/Cabbage 1 kg Carrots 1 kg Capsicum 1 kg MARINE AND ANIMAL PRODUCTS 1 Sausages 1 kg Eggs 1 egg Tuna 1 kg Octopus 1 kg Cockles (to'o) 1 kg Stringed fish (Mixed) 1 kg TOBACCO, ALCOHOL AND KAVA 1 Kava 1 kg

13 Table 7: Monthly average price of selected imported items TONGA FOOD Annual Unit Sept 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 June 18 July 18 Aug 18 Sept 18 Oct 18 Annual change % Fruits and Vegetables 1 Onions 1 kg % 2 Apples 1 kg % 3 Oranges 1 kg % Meats, Fish & Poultry 1 Mutton Flaps 1 kg % 2 Chicken Legs 1 kg % 3 Turkey tail 1 kg Other Food 1 Flour 1 kg % 2 Sugar 1 kg % TOBACCO, ALCOHOL AND KAVA Tobacco 1 Pall Mall Packet % TRANSPORTATION Private Transportation 1 Petrol litre % 2 Diesel litre % 11

14 Tonga Consumer Price Index Rebase Sep-2018 = 100 Starting from the October 2018, Statistics Tonga will switch to calculating and publishing its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) series on the basis of an updated set of weights and basket of representative goods and services. Concurrent with the update of weights, the classification used for publication will change to the COICOP classification to facilitate international comparisons of inflation in Tonga to other countries in the world, and the Pacific in particular. Background The CPI is based on price information collected mostly at outlets in Tonga selling consumer goods and services. This information is used to monitor the price changes for a wide variety of products, which together form the basket that is used to represent overall consumption expenditures by Tongan households. The CPI is calculated as the weighted average of the price changes of the individual products and services. The weights used for this calculation are the relative shares of expenditure on individual products during the weight reference period. Because these relative shares change over time, the weights must be regularly updated so that the CPI continues to accurately reflect consumer expenditure patterns. Revision of the weight reference period also present an opportunity to implement improvements to the index, which cannot be implemented in an ongoing series. These include changes to the methodology, the inclusion of new product groups, and changes to the classification. Key changes in the new CPI series Starting from October 2018, the CPI series is calculated on the basis of an updated set of weights and a new basket of representative goods and services. The new series will be published with index reference period Sep-2018 = 100. The weights for the new series reflect the Tongan consumer expenditure pattern in 2015/2016 and are based on the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) conducted then. This is a significant update from the old series, for which the weights were based on expenditure estimates from The graph below shows the changes in the weights for the most important product groups. The new and old weight structures at the division level show similar patterns. The main difference is a significant increase in the weight for Division 02 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics. Part of this increase is the result of substantially higher estimates of Kava consumption, driven by a strong price inflation for Kava. The increase in consumption expenditures on alcohol is most likely largely driven by improved availability of trade data, allowing for better estimates of expenditures in this category. The other main change in weight is shown in the transport division. This increase is not driven by an increase in one or a small number of specific Sub-Classes. Instead, the increase is spread evenly across all the categories in the division, suggesting that Tongans spend more money on transport related items in general. The new CPI series includes some important products that were previously not covered by the CPI. In particular, the basket of goods and services has been updated to include additional representative items for food and alcoholic beverages. Furthermore, the basket of products in the Communication category was extensively revised to better track the price change of the various internet service offerings available in Tonga. Furthermore, the price collection for the new CPI series has been extended to include Vava u. As a result, the total number of observations on which the CPI is based has increased substantially, by more than 17 percent. Through the inclusion of Vava u, the Tonga CPI now more closely represents changes in the true national average price level. 12

15 Table 1: New vs. old weights at the COICOP Division level Division Code Division Descr New Weight Old Weight 01 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 39.58% 42.06% 02 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics 10.43% 6.08% 03 Clothing and footwear 2.08% 3.98% 04 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 11.23% 12.56% Furnishings, household equipment and routine 05 household maintenance 3.37% 3.13% 06 Health 0.34% 0.58% 07 Transport 15.69% 11.93% 08 Communication 6.08% 5.40% 09 Recreation and culture 1.12% 1.48% 10 Education 2.33% 1.95% 11 Restaurants and hotels 3.28% 3.71% 12 Miscellaneous goods and services 4.45% 6.30% 90 Non-consumption household expenditure 0.85% Grand Total % % Food and non-alcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics Clothing and footwear Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels Furnishings, household equipment and routine Health Transport Communication Recreation and culture Education Restaurants and hotels Miscellaneous goods and services Non-consumption household expenditure 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% New Weight Old Weight Note: The old CPI contains the cost of hiring labourers on privately owned plantations as a representative item. These are considered intermediate consumption expenditures and were therefore classified under Division 90. Currently, the Tonga CPI is presented for seven major groups. From October 2018 onwards, the Tonga CPI and inflation estimates will be published for the twelve product categories ( divisions ) as defined in the United Nations Classification of Individual Consumption Expenditure According to Purpose (COICOP). This change will facilitate international comparisons of price change in Tonga to that in other countries. Finally, for the old CPI, indexes at the lowest level were calculated as the change in the arithmetic average price of individual product varieties. For the new series, the methodology is changed to adopt the Jevons (geometric average) index for the calculation of lower level indices. This index formula more closely corresponds to the concept of a cost-of-living index and is currently the internationally preferred method. Revision of previous estimates Because of the changes to the weights, basket of goods and services, methodology, geographical scope and classification of the index, some previously published results are revised. In particular, the previously estimated annual inflation rate for September 2018 of 6.49% has been revised to 5.55%. 13

16 Printed by BUREAU OF STATISTICS Nuku alofa, TONGA 2018