BOTTOM UP MANAGEMENT OF EXTREME RISK. Glyn Davies - October 2016

Transcription

1 BOTTOM UP MANAGEMENT OF EXTREME RISK Glyn Davies - October 2016

2 Session Topics Global Human Capital Trends 2016 (Deloitte) Legislation and systems What is your biggest asset Circular thinking processes Think about peoples thinking Cognitive Bias Toolbox Communication Evolution Theory Interventions and nudges Q & A

3 Global Human Capital Trends 2016 (Deloitte) The structure of companies is changing, putting greater emphasis on empowered teams and team leadership. Companies are becoming dependant on a new breed of empowering, supportive and open leaders at a time when companies still struggle to find the leaders they need.

4 It s A Complex World 10 EXTREME RISK 1 RESIDUAL RISK 2 RAW RISK 8 HIGH RISK RISK 3 INITIAL RISK Page 4 7 MEDIUM RISK 6 ACCEPTABLE RISK 5 LOW RISK

5 How Does The Company (PCBU) Manage Risk? Through Safety Management Systems and a Risk Framework. Integrated framework into branch practices and decision making processes. 1. List the tasks 2. Risk assess the tasks 3. Place controls on the task risks 4. Develop task instructions 5. Educate and train on the tasks 6. Review the tasks systematically 7. Re-train where changes in a given task have been identified

6 How Dose A Branch Measure These Risks? Risk is measured through a Matrix Likelihood & Consequence

7 How Does A Branch Control The Risk Effectiveness through the Hierarchy of Controls The implementation of control measures can be achieved by the following methods: Consultation and communication with all workers and their representatives; Developing task based work instructions with responsibilities clearly defined; Providing training and instruction in relation to the control measures

8 Engagement Is Thinking Thinking Is Engagement The information on previous compliance slides will not necessarily engage people and could do the opposite if the reasons for the system are not fully explained or understood

9 It s All About People - But What Precisely Is Your Biggest Asset? These? Or these? It pays to know how your people think, not how you think they think. Risk is rarely front of mind.

10 Risk Management Circle (HSE Risk) All Reasonable Steps S Y S T E Eliminate M Control The Risk Minimise Governance Identify All Hazards Place A Risk Score Low Medium Extreme High Your Honour Did you identify the hazards in the workplace Did you place a risk rating on those hazards Could it cause serious harm Was it a significant hazard What controls did you put in place to E or M the hazard.

11 Risk Management Circle (Customer Service Risk) Are These All Reasonable Steps For A Business To Take S Y S T E Eliminate M Control The Risk Minimise Hazards Delays Quality Communication Attitude Property damage Behaviours Back-up Competition Customer Service Place A Risk Score Low Medium Extreme High What controls did you put in place to E or M the risk to customer service

12 Risk Management Circle (Hazards) Y S T E M Hazards Height Reversing Musculoskeletal Uncontrolled energy Chemicals Vehicle operations Plant & equipment Fatigue Electricity Suspended loads Crushing Entrapment Flying objects/debris Explosion Combustion Dust Noise Temperature Radiation Public Psychological S Eliminate People Safety Extreme Controls Risk Score High Minimise Medium Low People need to know: Hazards they face Critical risks Controls in place to manage those risks. The process How & why Always make risks relevant to peoples lives

13 Thinking About People In Another Way We can t solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them. Albert Einstein Example: Body Stressing + Slip/Trip/Fall The greatest risk to the individual and business, yet it is not getting any better. Over 4,200 severe injuries were caused by body stressing in 2014 costing $140M /annum Over 5,600 severe injuries were caused by slips, trips, falls in 2014 costing $135M /annum ACC/WORKSAFE An Action Plan

14 Engaging The Immense Power Of The Human Brain Chess Facts: The game of chess has 10₅₀ possible combinations or this many moves- 10, Claude Shannon Mathematician It s estimated this many atoms are in the known universe 10₈₀ 10, The Naked Scientists Cambridge University

15 What About This Game? GO Facts: The Chinese game of Go has this many possible combinations 10₁₇₁ or 10, Yet a human defeated Google's Deep Mind AI computer in 1 game out of 4

16 Humans Are Highly Complex Thinkers GO Facts: The artificial intelligence that won was AlphaGo The challenges in the game are defined by clear, precise rules that are computational The real world is more complex, more flexible with novel situations AlphaGo has less intelligence than a 5 year old when it comes to thinking or using information about the world we live in to make decisions

17 We Are All Biased In Our Thinking Cognitive Bias Most people have trouble believing evidence that contradicts our preconceptions or view of the world. Confirmation Bias We only believe what we already think. BP s Deep-Water Horizon oil drilling rig exploded in 2010, before the blowout, rig staff had tested the concrete seal (blowout preventer) on a freshly excavated well before removing the 1.5-kilometre drilling column. The results indicated that the seal was not secure and removing the column might result in a catastrophic blowout, yet workers explained away the failed test as a bladder effect.

18 We Are All Biased In Our Thinking Outcome Bias When there are obvious things going wrong, your people recognise it When little things go wrong but with good outcomes, they ignore it more and more (near misses or failures are ignored). It is only when catastrophe strikes that we wake up (by then it is to late), this is called Outcome Bias.

19 The Human Brain s Bias List (some of many) 1 In-group Bias Suspected neurotransmitter oxytocin (so called love molecule) This transmitter helps us forge bonds with people in-groups. 2 Observational Selection Bias The feeling that the new car you have just purchased is everywhere and in the same colour. 3 Post Purchase Rationalisation Need I say more. 4 Neglecting Possibility Bias We get into a car to drive or be driven yet are often fearful of planes, we have a 1 in 84 chance of dying in a vehicle and 1 in 5000 for a plane. We overstate the small risk and underrate the extreme risks in our lives

20 The Best Risk Management Tool You Will Ever Have Are Thinking/Engaged/Empowered People I can t teach anyone anything, I can only make them.. THINK Socrates

21 Toolbox Talks The Power Base Of Communication Evolution Theory Model 1 Variation Around the businesses, there are many styles and methods of tool box delivery. 2 Selection Analyse what gets the best results in a workshop and discuss how to use those methods. 3 Inheritance Everyone gains from the inherited knowledge or group understanding and improves toolbox talks nationally on community or blog sites.

22 We Fail To Communicate Properly No matter what training is carried out, we need to understand and account for how the primal brain works in order for that training to create thinking, engagement and empowerment for sustainable risk reduction. There is a way to overcome the unconscious workings of the human brain and it s bias s leaders, supervisors and communicators are the key on the battle field. I want this work completed to a very high standard and with a high safety component but I want it done in less time Cognitive Dissonance

23 How About This For A Thought Priorities of $$$$ / Time / Quality / Safety will not work as business model for managing EXTREME risk. Safety / Quality / Time / $$$$ Works every time as it s a thinking mind-set that eliminates cognitive discord in communicators, creating thinking/engaged/empowered people. I want this work completed to a very high standard and with a high safety component, how do you think we can complete it in a reasonable time Cognitive Balance (oxytocin release even)

24 Nudges Or Wise Psychological Interventions (WPI s) Nudges: A concept in behavioural science that argues positive reinforcement and indirect suggestions achieve non-forced compliance, behaviour changes in groups and individuals. Stop Look Assess Manage (SLAM is a nudge) WPI s: Utilised when the human brain requires a stronger nudge, they create longer lasting changes in a persons thinking rather than short term actions. Schiphol Fly New Scientist - LEADER 9 th March 2016

25 Risk Management Make It A Part Of Everyday Life Make It Part Of The Way You & Your People Think LIKELIHOOD CONSEQUENCE RISK Overcome or control the biases we all have in our thinking processes and create a thinking culture for people engagement.

26 For further information contact Glyn Davies on mobile: