TIGGE LAM. Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIMC, Italy

Transcription

1 TIGGE LAM Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIMC, Italy GEOWOW : Richard Mladek, Florian Pappenberger, Ervin Zsoter, David Richardson SRNWP EPS : Chiara Marsigli INTEROPERABILITY : Mike Bush TLFDP: Yu Hui, Jing Chen, Kasuo Saito, Masayuki Kiouda et al FROST: Michael Tsyrulnikov, Andrea Montani HYMEX: Andrea Montani, Chiara Marsigli

2 Content LAM EPS and Projects HYMEX FROST TLFDP Cooperation on LAM EPS in EUROPE: SRNWP EPS TIGGE LAM archive at ECMWF as a task of the GEOWOW project TIGGE LAM archive: future developments (issues for discussion) Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

3 List of ensemble systems for FROST-2014 (1) Convective-parameterised ensembles (FDP) Name (organisation) Hor. and vert. resolution Ensemble size Fcst range (h) Emission time (UTC) COSMO-S14-EPS SIMC for COSMO) (ARPA- 7 km; 40 ML , 12 GLAMEPS (Hirlam) ALADIN-LAEF (ZAMG) NMMB ensemble (NCEP) TIGGE (WMO) ~ 11 km; ML 11 km; 45 ML 7 km; ML ~ 25 km; ~ 60 ML , , h > 100 up to 384h 00, 06, 12, 18 running on a daily basis experimental, pre-operational planned (Summer 2013)

4 List of ensemble systems for FROST-2014 (2) Convective-resolving ensembles (RDP) Name (organisation) Hor. and vert. resolution Ensemble size Fcst range (h) Emission time (UTC) COSMO-RU-EPS (RHM for COSMO) 2.2 km; 50 ML , 12 HarmonEPS (Hirlam) ~2.5 km; ~50 ML , 18 running on a daily basis experimental, pre-operational planned (Summer 2013)

5 Details on COSMO-S14-EPS case-study assessment: heavy precipitation (Jan) and foehn (Feb) 1. Heavy-precipitation event on 13 Jan 2013: 21 mm of rain during the day on the coast (Sochi/Adler) and 33 mm of snow-water equivalent during the day in the mountain (Krasnaya Polyana); 2. Foehn event on Feb 2013: a sudden 10-degree warming, which forecasters regard as hardly predictable.

6 Heavy precipitation event (1) runs start at 00UTC of 11/1/2013 and verify at 12UTC of 13/1/2013 (fc+48-60h) tpp12h_gt_20mm OBS: 21 mm of rain during the day on the coast (Sochi/Adler) and 33 mm of snow-water equivalent during the day in the mountain (Krasnaya Polyana) rain12h_gt_20mm A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system. sfp12h_gt_15cm

7 Heavy precipitation event: consistency Fix event (probability of 12h snowfall exceeding 15 mm of equivalent water) and verification time (12UTC of 13/1/2013): consider model runs with different forecast ranges. fc h OBS: 21 mm of rain during the day on the coast (Sochi/Adler) and 33 mm of snow-water equivalent during the day in the mountain (Krasnaya Polyana) fc h A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system. fc h

8 Case of heavy snow of 13 January 2013

9 courtesy of Elena Astakhova Foehn event: meteograms over Krasnaya Polyana model_height station_height 13 FEB 14 FEB 15 FEB 16 FEB different vertical scales! A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system.

10 Ensemble Run Configuration Running the FDP suggested 7 km horizontal grid spacing over this domain:

11 Details on GLAMEPS

12 About future ALADIN-LAEF

13 Name (organisation) COSMO-LEPS (COSMO) lam List of ensemble systems for HyMeX SOP1 Hor. and vert. resolution Ensemble size Fcst range (h) Emission time (UTC) Type of convection 7 km; 40 ML , 12 parameterised AEMET-SREPS (AEMET) lam AROME (Meteo-France) gl ECMWF EPS gl AROME-EPS (Meteo-France) COSMO-H2-EPS (ARPA-SIMC) 28 km; 40 ML , 12 parameterised 15 km; 65 ML /108 06, 18 parameterised 25 km; 62 ML ,12 parameterised 2.5 km; 60 ML , 12 resolved 2.8 km; 50 ML resolved operational experimental A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system.

14 IOP16 obs Fri 26/10/2012 obs Sat 27/10/2012

15 COSMO LEPS fc for Fri 26/10/ h COSMO H2 EPS

16 COSMO LEPS fc for Sat 27/10/ h COSMO H2 EPS

17 Intercomparison of the 2 Conv. Perm. Ensemble Arome EPS and COSMO H2 EPS will be compared for the whole SOP 1 period (5- Sept to 6 Nov. 2012) and for the main IOPs where intense precipitation was observed. Meteo France: Olivier Nuissier ARPA-SIMC: Chiara Marsigli High density observations will be used and advanced spatial verification methods will be used.

18 Link with TLFDP LAM EPS intlfdp Some mails exchanged among Yu HUI, Kazuo Saito, Jing Chen, Masa, Tetsuo Nakasawa, Richard Swinbank, Jeanette Onvlee, Dr Xiaotu Lei, Barbara Brown, Tiziana Paccagnella Positive impact of high res LAM on TC intensity.parameters to asses the skill of intensity forecast model forecasts of maximum surface wind and minimum central pressure. Yu Hui In TLFDP TC intensity forecasts from several operational models, both global and regional, have been compared. One conclusion is that regional models can add great values to TC intensity forecasts and the international exchange of TC forecasts from regional models should be encouraged. Yu, H., P. Chen, Q. Li, and B. Tang, 2012: Current Capability of Operational Numerical Models in Predicting Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Western North Pacific. Wea. Forecasting Stuart Webster from Met Office also working on TC with very high res implementations of the UM Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

19 Link with TLFDP About Lam EPS Jing Forecast domain of REPS system of Numerical Weather Prediction Center of NWPC/CMA) only covers the Mainland of China. Some good wishes to extend the domain to some northwest Pacific oceanic region, it's great depend on the LAM EPS tests on new IBM computer which will be installed in the later of this year and determining our LAM EPS configurations Masa JMA LAM EPS toward pre-operations. Improvement of the Initial Perturbation Method toward Pre-operation of the Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System at the JMA. Kosuke Ono: Japan meteorological agency Japan at International Conference on Ensemble Methods in Geophysical Sciences Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

20 SRNWP-EPS EUMETNET Project (Forecasting Programme) SRNWP cooperation on Limited-area Ensemble Prediction systems. Enhancement of cooperation on LAM-EPS was recognized as a high priority goal by EUMETNET members. A 2-phase approach was chosen to tackle this task Phase 1: preparatory phase. Feasibility study to formulate how capabilities for convection-permitting ensembles can be strengthened through cooperation between European countries define the ground for cooperation to address scientific and technical issues, optimising the use of resources

21 SRNWP-EPS - Phase 1 Aim of the project (Phase 1): to provide a feasibility study, which may include a Project proposal where the Phase II for cooperation in Europe in the fields of LAM-EPS is presented 18-month project (1 January June 2014) 17 European NMSs Deliverable (June 2014): Phase II project proposal for the EUMETNET Advisory Committees, where a strategy for future cooperation is designed Phase I Phase II Jan1 3 Jun1 4 Jan1 5 Dec 17

22 SRNWP-EPS - Phase 1 Phase 1 focuses on: Review the status of ensemble developments in the NMSs in Europe. Prepare an analysis/overview of the plans in the NMSs in Europe and identify common issues Questionnaire to cover status and plans sent to NMS; answers will be presented and discussed in Madrid next week. Make a proposal for a research plan aiming to develop the next generation ensemble system. Also discussed in Madrid. Identify major scientific and technical open issues (in preparation by the SRNWP Expert Team on Predictability and EPS) Prepare a shared and long-term SRNWP-EPS project proposal from 2014 onwards enable joint planning to use resources for challenging problems

23 SRNWP LAM-EPS BC An activity has been coordinated by the SRNWP EXPERT TEAM on Predictability and EPS to test the impact of higher resolution BCs provided by ECMWF EPS. Two experimental datasets have been provided by ECMWF (Martin Leutbecher) for three periods characterized by intense precipitation or strong wind. EPS current resolution about 32 km EPS higher resolution about 16 km LAM EPS experiments are ongoing in several european Countries. Results will be discussed at ECMWF in a dedicated meeting (autumn probably)

24 Joint SRNWP workshop on PHYSICAL PARAMETRIZATIONS AND ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS Madrid, June 2013 bring together developers of model physics, both upper air and surface/soil, and developers of ensemble systems, to foster scientific exchange about the representation of model uncertainties and the strategies for model perturbations: how to identify the uncertainties in the physical parametrisations which should be taken into account (including predictability studies). how to best describe the uncertainties in the physics of the model: static perturbations (parameter perturbation, multiphysics,perturbation of physics tendencies, ) inherently stochastic parametrisation schemes

25 TIGGE LAM archiving Short summary of the TIGGE LAM archive planning and development during the years. 4th of October 2007,Tigge-LAM meeting,san Lorenzo de El Escorial, Spain. Apart from other cooperation activities, we decided to start the implementation of the TIGGE LAM Archives. We defined a list of parameters to be archived High Priority parameters were shortlisted We agreed to adopt GRIB2 coding as prescribed by TIGGE Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

26 TIGGE LAM archiving We decided to ask TIGGE LAM/LAM EPS providers to interpolate their products on a regular lat/lon grid at 0.1 horizontal resolution (which is not the case anymore!!!!). This homogenization of the datasets was decided to facilitate the use of our products by scientists and users outside the meteorological modeling community. Hydrologists in primis. ECMWF did not have at that time the SW utilities to allow the management and post-elaboration of LAM products on different rotated or projected grids. Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

27 The concept of these TIGGE LAM Archives was further elaborated it was decided to ask the three TIGGE archiving Centres to host the TIGGE LAM archives. They accepted. ECMWF was asked to archive European systems and few others (e.g. south Africa..) NCAR to archive Americas and Canada CMA to archive Asian products. Other systems were not on the list at that time and each specific new entry should have been considered when necessary. Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

28 ECMWF We started some preliminary work with ECMWF, with Baudouin Rault and Manuel Fuentes, but we were not able to finalize the work due to lack of devoted resources NCAR CMA We had all the support by Doug and Steven but we could not agree on the data format with the data providers (actually with NCEP). Jun Du from NCEP said that they did not have resources to post-process their products to be TIGGE LAM compliant. At that time, Canada LAM EPS was not yet operational and, apart from NCEP, the other systems were mainly for research. No problems; they had to archive only their own products. Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

29 ECMWF We started some preliminary work with ECMWF, with Baudouin Rault and Manuel Fuentes, but we were not able to finalize the work due to lack of devoted resources NCAR CMA We had all the support by Doug and Steven but we could not agree on the data format with the data providers (actually with NCEP). Jun Du from NCEP said that they did not have resources to post-process their products to be TIGGE LAM compliant. At that time, Canada LAM EPS was not yet operational and, apart from NCEP, the other systems were mainly for research. No problems; they had to archive only their own products. Everything dumped due to lack of devoted resources! Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

30 During the writing of the TIGGE LAM it was decided to remove the option of interpolating on a common grid. It was proposed to keep the full model resolution and preserve the original information. Anyway it was just theory since no resources were available. Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

31 Geowow Task 4.1 achievements TIGGE-LAM archiving Thanks to GEOWOW, TIGGE LAM archive is under development and implementation by Richard Mladek at ECMWF. Defined and agreed Data exchange and archiving format: WMO-GRIB2 Outputs every three hours original model grids Store only High Priority single level parameters MSLP, 10U, 10V, Wgust, T2, Td2, Total & LargeScale precipitation, CAPE, CIN, Model orography, Land-sea mask Official letters to potential partners Prepared by Tiziana Paccagnella Sent by WMO representative Tetsuo Nakazawa

32 Geowow Task 4.1 achievements TIGGE-LAM archiving European TIGGE-LAM data providers Model Model name Organisation COSMO LEPS ARPA-SIMC Italy, COSMO SREPS SREPS AEMET- Spain, HIRLAM SRNWP PEPS SRNWP PEPS DWD Germany SRNWP NORLAMEPS NORLAMEPS Met.NO ALADIN LAEF ALADIN LAEF ZAMG / Austria COSMO DE EPS COSMO-DE-EPS DWD Germany COSMO-SREPS COSMO-SREPS BO EU ARPA-SIMC Italy, COSMO GLAMEPS GLAMEPS DNMI/Univ Oslo Norway, HIRLAM ALADIN PEARCE PEARCE Meteo-France / France DMI - HIRLAM DMI - HIRLAM DMI ALADIN EPS ALADIN EPS Hungary, Czech, Croatia 19/09/2012

33 COSMO LEPS and Aladin LAEF are already operationally archived ( GLAMEPS is on the road and so on... Products are archived on MARS, SW necessary to manipulate (mainly interpolate) data is under development by Richard together with SW to monitor products ( m/test/) Andrea Montani and me are in close contact with Richard to take decisions and to solve problems. The contribution of Andrea could be even enforced in the future Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

34 Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

35 TIGGE-LAM archive TIGGE-LAM user web interface

36 2 nd May 2013 Progress status information 2 May 2013 Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

37 TIGGE LAM archive: What to do now? ECMWF confirmed its willingness to continue TIGGE archiving also after THORPEX; this should include TIGGE LAM Europe. Any decision about the TIGGE LAM archive(s) structure (what/where) is strongly dependent on the final decisions of the other two centres, NCAR and CMA Is it possible to re-evaluate the implementation of the TIGGE LAM archives in other Regions outside Europe? Would it be possible to ask ECMWF to increase their support? E.g. Following the suggestion by Tetsuo, a web site where TIGGE LAM-EPS based products are displayed (as examples of TIGGE LAM applications), should be developed. Would it be possible to include in the ECMWF TIGGE WEB also these kinds of products? FTEs could be found to support the work of ECMWF from other centres and research institutes. Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

38 TIGGE LAM archive: What to do now? Archiving FDPs RDPS and other Project datasets. A big support to research efforts could also be given by including in the archives not only the operational datasets, but also the Project datasets like those developed and provided during RDPs and FDPs These projects offer a unique opportunity to support research and an easy access to numerical products in an homogeneous way would represent a breakthrough. Usually these datasets are used for a limited period and by the scientific community directly involved in the projects. In this way the value of these big projects would last for a longer time and a wider community could be involved. We should push to adopt TIGGE GRIB2 WMO coding as a standard, maybe by making available some tools to convert e.g. from/to NETCDF which is widely used outside Europe. Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

39 TIGGE LAM archive: What to do now? HIGH density data / Analyses It is well known that to make verification of HIW we must be able to observe/catch events. There are Regions where high density obs. Networks are available. Europe is rich of observations but these data are not on GTS. Is it possible to re-open the discussion about the implementation of high res observation/analyses archives? Is it only a problem of resources? Would it be possible to negotiate a strategy in Europe to make these data available (e.g. as at ECMWF where Anna Ghelli is already using them) to be made available e.g after gridding (to avoid the problem of the value of the data)? Would it be possible to implement these archives at ECMWF and eventually in the other two archiving Centres? Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

40 TIGGE LAM archive: What to do now? Does it make sense a TIGGE LAM archive in those regions with a limited overlapping of the integration domains? For the research community it is very important to have an easy access to several state-of-the-art GLOBAL and LAM EPS products. Scientists could do a lot of work just by using what is already available and concentrate their efforts on predictability issues. E.g the added value with respect to Global systems can anyway be evaluated even if only one LAM EPS system is available in one specific region. The availability of some forecast datasets can be used as a reference to stimulate further work on the same regions/events/etc. The parallel availability of suitable observations/analyses would increase exponentially the value of the datasets. Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

41 To conclude: TIGGE LAM archiving should be continued and enriched also as a support to HIW project after THORPEX. What about devoted resources? Will ECMWF continue to support and develop the archive after GEOWOW? The strong focus on applications of the HIW project may imply the inclusion of new parameters in the archive and the development of prototype products based on the combination of different systems (when overlapping). Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

42 The possibility to have more than one TIGGE LAM archiving centre depends on the decisions of NCAR and CMA. Would it be possible for these centres to host the TIGGE LAM archive even if they will not continue with the TIGGE Global archive? In case they will not, could ECMWF archive also LAM EPS systems outside Europe? TIGGE LAM archives could be extended to include major Project datasets? Is it possible to find a strategy to implement observations/analyses datasets based on high res observations?.. Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM

43 Thanks! Tiziana Paccagnella TIGGE LAM