Climate Perception and Denial Why Don t They Get It?

Transcription

1 Climate Perception and Denial Why Don t They Get It? Michelle Covi Ocean, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Mitigation and Adaptation Research Institute Virginia Sea Grant Extension

2 Climate Perception and Denial Climate Science Climate Perception in US Mind the Gap: Understanding and Denial Common Myths Climate Communications Next Steps

3 Climate Science What We Know Keeling Curve, Scripps Inst. of Oceanography National Climate Assessment 2014

4 Climate Science What We Know National Climate Assessment 2014

5 Climate Science What We Know Virginia Institute of Marine Science 2013

6 Climate Science What We Know Old Dominion University 2013 Virginia Pilot photo

7 Climate News

8 Local Impacts

9 Climate Change Perception

10 Climate Change Perception

11 Climate Change Perception

12 Climate Change Perception

13 Climate Change Perception

14 Climate Change Perception

15 Climate Change Perception

16 Climate Change Perception The American public routinely ranks dealing with global warming low on its list of priorities for the president and Congress. This year, it ranked second to last among 20 issues tested.

17 Sea Level Rise Perception My risk perception study was conducted in Northeastern North Carolina in Predominant attitudes were: Fear Discomfort with science/uncertainty Skepticism Fatalism Focus on responses

18 Climate Change Perception in HR Life in Hampton Roads, ODU, 2014

19 Mind the Gap- Science Literacy

20 Mind the Gap- Numeracy

21 Mind the Gap- Numeracy Graphs Regional - How much have global mean sea level increased since 1960 (according to Figure 1)? 0 mm 50 mm 100 mm 200mm Local- How much is sea level expected to rise by 2100 if the warming trend in the ocean over the last century is considered (according to the figure Future Sea-level Rise)? 0.38 ft 1.25 ft 3.25 ft 4.6 ft 50% correct 65% correct

22 Mind the Gap- Complex Problem Invisible causes Distant impacts from sourcetemporal and spatial People don t have good mental models for inflows and outflows (Sterman, 2007) Mathematical uncertainty and probabilistic risk of impactsbreeds wishful thinking Inadequate signals exist between cause, effect and response (Moser, 2010)

23 Mind the Gap- Wicked Problem Human Experience Shifting baselines Humans are insulated from the environment Human brains evolved to deal with here and now threats Delayed or no gratification from taking action (Moser, 2010)

24 Mind the Gap- Politically Charged Climate Is a partisan issue: conservative white males more likely to deny climate change (McCright and Dunlap, 2011) Because the moral position is not clear, group identity shapes perception (Markowitz and Shariff, 2012) Tension between science and politics- difficult to balance (Fischhoff, 2007)

25 Mind the Gap- Polticial Polarization Dan Kahan (Cultural Cognition Project) found increasing knowledge increased political polarization. He interprets this as a conflict of rationality between the individual and collective levels.

26 Climate Denial Historians of Science, such as Naomi Oreskas and journalists have concluded that fossil fuels interests have promoted denial and funded campaigns by those that actively deny climate change Climate Change deniers will often Suggest there is a conspiracy to hide the truth Cherry pick data Use fake experts Use logical fallacies Repeat their arguments ad nauseum

27 Common Climate Myths Climate has changed before.. Yes, but this time humans are changing it. It s the sun/ part of a cycle.. In the last 35 years the sun cycle and climate have been going in opposite directions Warming is a good thing.there may be some good outcomes, but bad outcomes out weigh those. Scientist do not agree 97% of scientists agree according to independent studies Models are unreliable.no model is perfect, but the ones used in IPCC and similar consensus reports are robust The temperature record is not reliable many different methods show the same result It has not warmed since global records refute this with 2010 being the hottest year on record followed by 2005 (2014 on track ) Al Gore got it wrong there are errors in his book, but most of it is consistent

28 Climate Change Communication Mistakes by science communicators in the past created greater misunderstanding Deficit model- if only the public understood the fact and had the knowledge, they would change their attitudes and behaviors

29 Climate Change Communication

30 Climate Change Communication Mistakes made by the media- False Balance After years of scholarly publications, some press responding to false balance in journalism

31 Climate Change Communication Don t leave an audience fatalistic with no clear way to act Denial Overwhelmed, confused Attention shifts

32 Effective Engagement A clear objective- information and engagement with the issue or some specific action or options Know the audience. By understanding the audience s needs, a communicator can fill cognitive gaps and use appropriate framing and psychology Appeal to existing values Emotional carrots, not sticks Highlight positive social norms Emphasize co-benefits

33 Effective Engagement Messengers Scientists are trusted Must match message Use emotion, humor John Oliver video on the scientific consensus

34 Next Steps: Solution Oriented ODU, HRPDC, Virginia Sea Grant Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise/Flooding Adaptation Forum

35 Next Steps: Solution Oriented Intergovernmental Planning Project Convened by ODU

36 Next Steps: Solution Oriented

37 Next Steps: Solution Oriented Norfolk 100 Resilient Cities and associated efforts Portsmouth and other cities reviewing freeboard and other flood mitigation Wetlands Watch Flooding phone app and Adaptation Design Project Public Health efforts- Lung Association and others

38 Thank You