Cognitive Bias Exploring what goes on between your ears

Transcription

1 AgileIndy 2016 Cognitive Bias Exploring what goes on between your ears Presented by Dan Neumann

2 h"ps:// Your Greatest Tool

3 Dan Neumann www If you have questions or would like more information, feel free to contact me.

4 Imagine

5 Anchoring Over-Weight the First Information Make Decisions while Anchored Especially a problem under pressure Planning Poker Silent Writing Start with Why Sleep on it h"ps://

6 Two Categories InformaBon Bias Ego Bias h"ps:// 6 h"ps://

7 Imagine

8 Optimism Bias Generally believe ourselves to be less prone to certain events. 8

9 Optimism Bias and Selective Updating Believes chance of cancer is 30% Representative of Group 1: Learns the actual chance is 50% Representative of Group 2: Learns the actual chance is 10% New Belief: 33% New Belief: 22% How unrealis-c op-mism is maintained in the face of reality Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan. NATURE NEUROSCIENCE, November

10 It s Biological How unrealis-c op-mism is maintained in the face of reality Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan. NATURE NEUROSCIENCE, November

11 Combat: Make The Processing More Complex Beyond Budgeting Estimate Budget Expected outcome 11

12 Debiasing: Multiple Explanation 1. Consider the Opposite 2. Consider any Alternative 3. Alternative Plausibility 12

13 Related to Planning Fallacy Address Planning Fallacy with Reference Class Forecasting

14 Availability Bias We judge how important (or how likely) something is by how easy it is to think of an example In particular, vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged examples stick. 14

15 Combating Availability Bias Research Beware the most recent/memorable Personas Experiments 15

16 Two Categories InformaBon Bias Ego Bias Anchoring Optimism Availability h"ps:// 16 h"ps://

17 Illusory Superiority The Above Average Bias Image: h"p://bit.ly/20qozui NOTE: Don t call it Lake Wobegon Effect: h"p:// 17

18 Attribution Bias My Your Success Innate AbiliBes Circumstances Failure Bad Luck Incompetence *Not true of all cultures 18

19 Dunning-Kruger Effect Unskilled Highly Skilled Self- Assessment Side-Effect OveresBmated UnderesBmated Overconfidence FrustraBon with Others 19

20 Moderating Ego Bias Create Safety Regardless of what we discover, we understand and truly believe that everyone did the best job they could, given what they knew at the time, their skills and abilities, the resources available, and the situation at hand. --Norm Kerth Project Retrospectives: A Handbook for Team Review

21 Moderating Ego Bias Model Getting Feedback Evaluate the work, not the individual Bring Data Broaden your perspective

22 In-Group/Out-Group Bias Positive characters ascribed to their own group Negative characteristics ascribed to other groups Especially when competing for resources! Mitigation Strategies: Get a broader definition of my group Address the resource scarcity 22

23 Choice-Supportive Bias Highlight positive attributes of our selection Downplay positive attributes of alternatives Mitigation Strategies: Regular Reviews Engage with outsiders 23

24 Confirmation Bias (a.k.a., Myside Bias ) Seek information that supports our beliefs or hypotheses Co-opt Ambiguity Mitigation Strategies: Additional Opinions Yes, and 24

25 Social Desirability Bias Over-report good behavior Underreport bad 25

26 Hawthorne Effect People tend to behave differently when they are being observed. Use it for Advantage: Video during meetings Sprint Reviews 26

27

28 h"ps://

29 What about the bias against creativity? Beware Uncertainty! Promotes negative attitudes toward creativity Makes creativity hard to recognize 95% made explicit statements about supporting Creativity Experiment showed high correlation to words like Vomit Poison and Agony Mueller, Jennifer S.; Melwani, Shimul; and Goncalo, Jack A., "The Bias Against CreaBvity: Why People Desire But Reject CreaBve Ideas" (2011). ArBcles & Chapters. Paper 450. h"p://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/arbcles/450 29

30 Agony by wallsdontlie Poison and Vomit by Thomas Hawk

31 31

32 We discussed: Anchoring Optimism Bias Availability Bias Illusory Superiority Attribution Bias Dunning-Kruger Effect In-Group/Out-Group Choice-Supportive Confirmation Social Desirability Hawthorne Effect Bias Against Creativity 32

33 Summary of Strategies Show your cards all at once: Planning Poker Silent Writing Start with Why Sleep on it Make the issue more complex (e.g., Beyond Budgeting) Multiple Explanation Reference Class Forecasting Research Experiments Personas Create Safety Model Getting Feedback Bring Data Evaluate the work, not the individual Broaden your perspective Broaden the definition of My Group" Address the sense of resource scarcity Review your choices. Include outsiders Create additional options Yes, And Take advantage of Hawthorne Effect Reduce Uncertainty to allow for Creativity

34 Blind Spot Bias When one sees the impact of biases on the judgment of others, but fail to see the impact of biases on one s own judgment Survey of 600 Americans, 85% thought they were less biased than the average American 34

35 Dan Neumann www If you have questions or would like more information, feel free to contact me.