Mayoral Runoff: Close

Transcription

1 Contact: Tom Swiss (773) March 8, 2015 Mayoral Runoff: Close African American vote crucial for both candidates CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-question poll for on Saturday, March 7, 2015 for the Chicago Mayoral Runoff with 1,020 respondents. Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 3/7/2015, n= 1,020 Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Undecided % Margin of Error +/- 3.13% at 95% Confidence Interval ANALYSIS Statistically, little has changed from the last poll (2/28/2015), the race remains close. Garcia has two intangible factors assisting his campaign. The Hispanic vote has consistently under-polled in Chicago Mayoral polls. Also, the undecided vote generally does not break for a known incumbent. The African American voters will determine this election. Emanuel will need to both win the argument that his is the better leader for this community AND get them out to vote for him. Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 1

2 AFRICAN AMERICAN WARDS The following data is from the 9 wards with 80% or greater African American populations. Ward AA% % % % % % % % % % 80% African American Ward Respondents, n= 230 Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Undecided % GENDER Female Respondents, n= 555 Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Undecided % Male Respondents, n= 465 Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Undecided % Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 2

3 METHODOLOGY Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency. Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For the Chicago Mayoral Runoff election, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. PREVIOUS POLLS 2/28/2015 n= 979 Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Undecided % Margin of Error +/- 3.20% at 95% Confidence Interval 2/25/2015 n= 1,058 Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Undecided % Margin of Error +/- 3.07% at 95% Confidence Interval Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 3

4 CROSSTABS 3/28/2015 Respondents by Gender Male % Female % Respondents by Age Age % Age % Age % Age 65 plus % Respondents by Ward 1 Count Count 12 2 Count Count 26 3 Count Count 24 4 Count Count 22 5 Count Count 11 6 Count Count 9 7 Count Count 20 8 Count Count 17 9 Count Count Count Count Count Count 8 12 Count 8 37 Count Count 9 38 Count Count Count Count 9 40 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 30 Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 4

5 19 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 13 3/25/2015 Respondents by Gender Male % Female % Respondents by Age Age % Age % Age % Age 65 plus % *Age for 1 respondent could not be determined. Respondents by Ward 1 Count Count 14 2 Count Count 19 3 Count Count 31 4 Count Count 27 5 Count Count 17 6 Count Count 11 7 Count Count 17 8 Count Count 13 Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 5

6 9 Count Count Count Count 9 11 Count Count Count 6 37 Count Count Count Count Count Count 7 40 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 12 3/7/2015 Respondents by Gender Male % Female % Respondents by Age Age % Age % Age % Age 65 plus % Respondents by Ward 1 Count Count 19 2 Count Count 26 Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 6

7 3 Count Count 31 4 Count Count 19 5 Count Count 4 6 Count Count 6 7 Count Count 17 8 Count Count 21 9 Count Count Count 9 35 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 3 47 Count Count Count Count Count Count 9 50 Count 14 PREVIOUS MAYORAL POLLS WARD DISTRIBUTIONS (Wards won by Garcia in yellow) 1/17/2015 1/24/2015 1/31/2015 2/7/2015 2/14/2015 2/21/2015 Ward 1 20 Ward 1 13 Ward Count 19 1 Count 9 1 Count 3 Ward 2 15 Ward 2 20 Ward Count 20 2 Count 12 2 Count 12 Ward 3 33 Ward 3 39 Ward Count 28 3 Count 19 3 Count 30 Ward 4 29 Ward 4 30 Ward Count 31 4 Count 23 4 Count 20 Ward 5 30 Ward 5 29 Ward Count 29 5 Count 27 5 Count 27 Ward 6 31 Ward 6 29 Ward Count 26 6 Count 18 6 Count 19 Ward 7 20 Ward 7 22 Ward Count 24 7 Count 17 7 Count 17 Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 7

8 Ward 8 23 Ward 8 41 Ward Count 27 8 Count 21 8 Count 25 Ward 9 34 Ward 9 27 Ward Count 20 9 Count 18 9 Count 24 Ward 10 8 Ward 10 7 Ward Count 9 10 Count 7 10 Count 8 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 12 Ward 12 8 Ward Ward Count Count 6 12 Count 10 Ward Ward Ward Count 8 13 Count Count 13 Ward Ward 14 8 Ward Count 9 14 Count 8 14 Count 8 Ward 15 8 Ward Ward Count 6 15 Count 1 15 Count 7 Ward Ward 16 9 Ward Count Count Count 12 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 16 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 11 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 30 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 14 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 12 Ward Ward 22 6 Ward Count 8 22 Count 6 22 Count 10 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 12 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 12 Ward Ward 25 6 Ward Count Count Count 6 Ward Ward 26 9 Ward Count Count 4 26 Count 12 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 25 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 12 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 21 Ward 30 7 Ward Ward Count 6 30 Count Count 9 Ward 31 6 Ward Ward Count 8 31 Count 8 31 Count 8 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 18 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 10 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 18 Ward Ward 35 9 Ward Count Count 5 35 Count 8 Ward Ward 36 6 Ward Count 5 36 Count 8 36 Count 12 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 15 Ward Ward Ward Count Count 9 38 Count 7 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 14 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 17 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 16 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 23 Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 8

9 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 10 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 18 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 13 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 12 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 20 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 22 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 16 Ward Ward Ward Count Count 8 50 Count 11 *49 th ward was won by Garcia, but was practically a tie Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 9