The Paris Pact Initiative

Transcription

1 The Paris Pact Initiative A partnership to counter the trafficking and consumption of opiates originating in Afghanistan Drug Situation Analysis Report Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 2010 Report

2 Abbreviations AEF AGE COAFG CJTF GLE IOM MCN NGOs PEF UNDP UNODC Afghan Eradication Force Anti Government Elements UNODC Country Office in Afghanistan Criminal Justice Task Force Government Led Eradication International Organization for Migration Ministry of Counter Narcotics Non Governmental Organizations Poppy Eradication Force (formerly Afghan Eradication Force) United Nations Development Programme United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime 2

3 Acknowledgements The Paris Pact Illicit Drug Situation Report for Afghanistan was prepared by the Paris Pact National Strategic Analyst and benefited from the work and expertise of officials from the UNODC Country Office in Afghanistan. In particular the following UNODC officials contributed to the preparation of this report: Jean-Luc Lemahieu, Representative, Country Office in Afghanistan (COAFG) and Senior Advisor to the Special Representative of Secretary General for Afghanistan on Counter Narcotics; Ashita Mittal, Deputy Representative Programme (COAFG); Marie-Anne Menier, Project Coordinator, Paris Pact Initiative; Hakan Demirbuken, Program Manager, Afghan Opiate Trade Monitoring Program, UNODC Vienna; Mohammad Hashim Wahdatyar, Paris Pact National Strategic Analyst (COAFG); Ziaudin Zaki, National Project Coordinator (COAFG). The Paris Pact is an international partnership to combat traffic in and abuse of Afghan opiates. At the first Ministerial Conference on Drug Routes from Central Asia to Europe, held in Paris in May 2003, more than 50 countries and international organizations agreed to join forces in order to limit the flow of opiates from Afghanistan to and through all countries along the trafficking routes. At the second Ministerial Conference on Drug Trafficking Routes from Afghanistan held in Moscow in June 2006 partners reiterated the need for enhanced and coordinated counter narcotics action to reduce opiates trafficking, consumption and related health problems in the region. UNODC is leading the follow-up to these Ministerial Conferences through the Paris Pact Initiative, a project that facilitates periodical consultations at the expert and policy levels and also aims to strengthen data collection and analytical capacities in and around Afghanistan. This project also provides partners with the use of a secure, automated internet-based tool for the coordination of technical assistance in the field of counter narcotics (ADAM - This report is based on information and statistics collected from UNODC Survey Section, Ministry of Counter Narcotics, Ministry of Interior, Criminal Justice Task Force (CJTF) and relevant drug control related agencies in Afghanistan, to whom UNODC extend special thanks. Unfortunately two decades of war including frequent attacks on governmental institutions has limited the availability of statistics and data for many of the years covered in this report. This report is not an official document of the United Nations and it has not been formally edited. The boundaries, names and designations used in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. 3

4 Table of Contents Abbreviations... 2 Acknowledgements... 3 Table of Contents... 4 Opium Poppy Cultivation... 5 Cultivation Expectation for Opiate Seizures Opium Production Opium Poppy Disease Opiate Prices Drug Related Crime Opiate Use Conclusion References

5 Opium Poppy Cultivation Opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan was on upward trend from 1990 to 2007 but in declining trend from 2008 to In 2008 the number of opium poppy free provinces increased to 18 provinces and 157,000 hectares were cultivated and the free provinces in central region were Ghazani, Khost, Logar, Nuristan, Paktika, Paktya, Panjshi, parwan and Wardak and free provinces in the northern region were Balkh, Bamyan, Jawzjan, Samangan and Sari Pul, north east region, Kunduz and Takhar, East region Nangarhar and in west region Ghor province. In 2009 the opium poppy free provinces increased to 20 provinces. Kapisa (eastern region), Baghlan and Faryab (northern region) provinces became poppy free for the first time. Table 1: Provinces with poppy free status in 2010(<100 ha opium poppy cultivation) Region Provinces Central region Northern region North-eastern region Eastern region Western region Khost, Logar, Paktya, Paktika, Panjshir, Parwan, Wardak, Ghazni Baghlan, Balkh, Bamyan, Faryab, Jawzjan, Samangan, Sari Pul Kunduz, Takhar Kapisa, Nuristan Ghor In 2010, the number of poppy free province remained the same (20 provinces) but four more provinces were closer to be poppy free provinces. These four provinces are Kunar, Laghman, Kabul and Herat provinces. Table 2: Regional distribution of opium cultivation (ha), Change 2010 (ha) as Region 2009 (ha) 2010 (ha) % of total Southern 103, ,247-3% 82% Western 18,800 19,909 +6% 16% Eastern 593 1, % 0.9% North-eastern 557 1, % 0.9% Central % 0.1% Northern Poppy free Poppy free NA NA Total 123, ,000 0% 100% 5

6 Table 3: Main opium cultivating provinces in Afghanistan (ha), Province 2007 (ha) 2008 (ha) 2009 (ha) 2010 (ha) Change Hilmand 102, ,590 69,833 65,045-7% Kandahar 16,615 14,623 19,811 25, % Farah 14,865 15,010 12,405 14, % Uruzgan 9,204 9,939 9,224 7,337-20% Badghis 4, ,411 2,958-45% Day Kundi 3,343 2,273 3,002 1,547-48% Nimroz 6,507 6, , % Rest of the country 35,455 5,028 2,982 3,202 +7% Total 193, , , ,000 0% Figure 1: Main opium cultivating provinces in Afghanistan (ha), Hilmand Kandahar Farah Uruzgan Badghis Day Kundi Nimroz Rest of the country 6

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9 Figure 2: Opium Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan (ha), Taliban period Transitional gov't Elected gov't Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2007, October 2007 Hence, from its record peak in 2007 (193,000 ha) the total cultivation or surface planting has fallen down to 123,000 ha. Production (cultivation x yield = production) in 2010 was estimated at 3,600 mt, a 48% decrease from Whereas few years back near all of the 34 provinces were cultivating opium, today 98% is concentrated in 9 provinces only, most in the South and West of the country, which are dominated by insurgency and criminal networks. This mirrors the divide between the unstable and lawless south compared to the relatively more secure north.

10 Cultivation Expectation for 2011 The winter assessment has been carried out and the findings shows that the cultivation in the highest cultivating provinces of Hilmand and Kandahar in the south of Afghanistan is expected to decrease in 2011 because of the cold and dry climate conditions which led to crop failure as the poppy would not germinate, reported from farmers. In the western provinces of Farah, Hirat, Ghor and Nimroz opium cultivation is expected to increase similar increasing trends were observed in the eastern and central provinces like Nangarhar, Kunar, Laghman, Kabul and Kapisa. But these provinces will be in lower level in cultivation compare to the southern zone Kandahar and Hilmand in terms of poppy cultivation. Poppy cultivation will also increase in Ghor and Kapisa provinces and it will loss its poppy free status if the eradication didn't take place in time. The remaining provinces in the central and eastern regions which were poppy free in 201 it is expected that it will remain poppy free. The findings shows that the expected increase of poppy cultivation in the villages are associated with insecurity, lack of agricultural assistance and opium cultivation. Opium Cultivation trends at a glance Cultivation Trend in 2011 No. of provinces Poppy free 9 Slight decrease 1 Moderat decrease 2 Stable 2 Moderate incease 6 Strong increase 3 Unpredictable 1 Provinces Ghazni, Khost, Logar, Paktika, Paktya, Panjshir, Parwan, Wardak and Nuristan Hilmand Day Kundi and Kandahar Uruzgan and Zabul Farah, Kabul, Kunar, laghman, Nangarhar and Nimroz Ghor, Hirat and Kapisa Badghis Comments These provinces were poppy free in 2010 as well Last year the poppy cultivation had slightly decreased compared to 2009 Last year the poppy cultivation increased in Kandahar whereas it had decreased in Day Kundi compared to 2009 Last year the poppy cultivation had decreased in both the provinces compared to 2009 Kabul, Kunar and laghman could be poppy free if effective eradication is implemented Ghor and Kapisa provinces were poppy free in 2010 Poppy cultivation in major rain-fed areas would moderately increase if the drought like conditions do not prevail and there is enough rain 10

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14 Opiate Seizures The data and information with Afghan government is limited due to the frequent attacks on the governmental institutions during the two decades of war. The seizures curve is on upward from 2002 to 2005 because of increased capacity of the government and having strong responsibility, mean while drug trafficker could use most of the routes for smooth trafficking within Afghanistan, but during the Afghan police were able to control the drug trafficking routes which resulted with good seizures year to year. In 2006 to 2008 the opiate seizures were stable (except good seizures of hashish) it is thought that one of the reasons of opiate seizure being stable is that the drug traffickers took steps to identified better routes for their trafficking. Figure 3: Opiate Seizures in Afghanistan (kg), Heroin Opium Hashish Source: Counter Narcotics Police of Afghanistan / Ministry of Interior In 2009 good seizures took place. The capacity of the armed forces built and was well equipped which resulted successes in opiate seizures. During the period, Hashish seizures are greater than opiate seizures, since trafficking of hashish out of the country is difficult due to its higher volume, as well as Afghanistan has more hashish users.

15 Figure 4: Precursor Chemicals Seizures in Afghanistan (kg), Lit KG Source: Counter Narcotics Police of Afghanistan / Ministry of Interior In there were less precursor seizures because of lack of knowledge, but between 2005 and 2009 the precursor seizures trend show U pattern followed by decrease in The government capacity was built; several trainings on precursor identifications were provided to them including the precursor manuals and the provision of test kits enable the government law enforcement forces to have greater seizures of precursor chemicals. Figure 5: Heroin Labs Destroyed in Afghanistan, Source: Counter Narcotics Police of Afghanistan / Ministry of Interior 15

16 The destruction of heroin labs in Afghanistan is based on security and control of the government on those locations where labs are existed. In labs destroyed because the labs were existed in the territories where government had good control. In 2006 the number of lab destruction decreased to 13 labs, it is thought that the heroin producers moved the production to the secure places comparatively. By strengthening the law enforcement forces the trend of labs destruction increased to 2008 and The lab destruction being stable between 2008 and 2009 it is being said that most of the labs are like mobile and most of them exist at the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan to be easily moved from one side of the border to an other to be safe. Map 1: Precursor Trafficking Routes 16

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18 Opium Production The curve of opium production was upward from 2001 to 2007 because of increase in cultivation. In 2007 the production increased to 8200 (mt) compared to 6100 (mt) in Opium production declined from 2008 to In 2009 the production decreased to 6900 (mt) compared to 7700 (mt) in In 2010 opium production decreased by almost half (48%), however the cultivation remained the same (123,000 hectares) but because of the opium disease the production decreased. This was the lowest production since Hence, it seems that still the southern region is at the peak of opium production which produced 83% of opium of the entire country in But on the other hand some smaller opium producing provinces such as Badakhshan and Nimroz experiences a strong production increased in Figure 5: Opium Production in Afghanistan (mt), Taliban period Transitional gov't Elected gov't Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey The most affected region by the diseases was the southern region which was affected by 42% of the area where opium were cultivated. The western region was also affected by the diseases but with the lower degree. The opium poppy diseases are normal and it has been said by farmers that the diseases occur once in a about five years with the different degree, sometime the diseases affect much on opium but some time less.

19 Photo 1: Opium poppy plants affected by disease, Hilmand province, April 2010 Table 4: Potential opium production by region (mt), Region Production 2009 (mt) Production 2010 (mt) Change (mt) Central region NA 8 NA Eastern Region North-eastern Region Northern Region Poppy free Poppy free NA Southern Region 6,026 2, Western Region Total 6,900 3,600-3,300 The southern region has the largest opium producing region in 2010 contributing 83% to total opium production; western region is the second largest region in 2010 producing (13%). Opium production fell significantly in the largest opium producing province of Helmand at he southern region where still over half of all opium (53%) was produced. 19

20 Figure 6: Opium production in 2009 (mt) Figure 7: Opium production in 2010 (mt) Eastern Region Southern Region North-eastern Region Western Region Eastern Region Southern Region North-eastern Region Western Region 6,026 2,979 There was no specific regional production figures calculated for the central region in 2009 due to a low number of yield measurements in the region, but in 2010 the opium production was 8 mt. The northern region was poppy free in both 2009 and

21 Opium Poppy Disease In general this disease affected approximately all the poppy fields in all-over the southern region but still there is disparity in extent of disease based on district and province level, time of cultivation, poppy growth stage, time of disease onset and seed variety. Province and district level: On area base Helmand province was most affected by this disease, also inside Helmand the Washer and Nawzad districts were more affected (more then 70% of poppy fields) then others but the dishu and Khanishin district had the minimum damage (about less than 40% damage to poppy fields. In Kandahar province the most affected districts were: Maywand, Panjwai, Zhari, Shahwali Kot, Khakriz and spin Boldak districts, which are the main poppy producing districts. In Uruzgan and Zabul provinces all poppy cultivating districts have been affected by this disease. Cultivation time: According to the reports from surveyors based on theirs interview with farmers, the poppy fields which were early cultivated were much safe then late cultivated, it means the poppy fields which their lancing started earlier were much better then the fields which had late lancing and this issue was clear about dishu and Khanishin districts of Helmand province where lancing started 10 days earlier then central Helmand and those farmers became able to lance their fields about 4 lances, but in some parts of northern Helmand where the disease badly affected the fields in flowering and capsule stage of poppy growth, the farmers were not be able to conduct at least one lance in their poppy fields. Nature of disease: According to information from field this type of disease was never seen before, in most cases the first sign of disease was yellowish of poppy plant form bottom suddenly and a very speedily spread to the top in few days while this yellowish reach the half of plant so the capsules stop yielding even if this occur in first lance, for this reason most people call it ZHARI (Yellowish) which is a normal disease in poppy plant but they also said that the main difference between this disease and normal Zhari is in onset of disease which this disease occurred suddenly and spread very speedily but the normal Zhari starts when the plants are small and continuo with poppy growth until end of lancing. in some cases there was no sign of disease in poppy fields all the plants were green but while the farmer conducted the lance the capsules were not yielding, also in some fields root worm, black pests on leaves have been found. In some area where the fields were affected before lancing season the poppy flower buds were not opened correctly so it caused a small, soften and no yielding capsules. But it is also reported that some of the poppy plants which were under trees or on the side of walls were not affected by disease so much. 21

22 A disease affected field in Nade Ali District of Helmand province: A close look of a disease affected plant in Nade Ali District of Helmand province: 22

23 Cause of Disease: According to the surveyors reports based on their interviews with farmers about more then 80% farmers said that this disease is the result of aerial spry of anti poppy drug, even some of them were talking about a kind of chemical which they found near to their poppy fields in early mornings and while the sun raised or they took by hand this chemical became melt, some of them say it is the result of material like poppy seed which was spread from air in the beginning of this cultivation season. Other opinions of farmers are: Drought, less rain Result of cold and hot weather {hot weather in mid March (Flowering stage) and rainy & cloudy weather in mid April (lancing stage)} Result of a new brand fertilizer (DAP) Continuous cultivation of poppy in same field Normal Zhari disease A complex of all or some of above But the underlying factors that caused such diseases have not been known or established yet and all the above reasons have so far not been confirmed by independent professional entities 23

24 Percentage of Disease Effects on Poppy fields in South Zone 2010 No Province Helmand Kandahar Uruzgan Zabul Districts Appearance of Disease Before Lance Note: the pink highlighted shows the lances which are not conducted Disease Affect on poppy field During Time period (%) 1st Lance 2nd Lance 3rd Lance 4th Lance 5th Lance or later Average Damage to Poppy Field (%) Kg/jerib Estimated Yield 1st Category (Washir) Before Lance * 100* Decrease to Normal (%) 2nd Category (Sangin, Musa Qala, Nawzad, Before Lance * 90* Kajaki, Baghran) 3rd Category (Garamser, Nawa, Nade Ali, Lashkargah, Nahre- Siraj 1st Lance * 90* th Category (Dishu and Khanishin 2nd Lance * st Category (Maywand, Zhari and 1st Lance * Shahwali Kot 2nd Category (Panjwai, Khakriz, Ghorak and 2nd Lance * Nesh, Myanishin) 3rd Category (Maruf, Arghistan, Arghandab) 3rd Lance st Category (Chora) Before Lance * 95* nd (Shahed Hassas, Dehrawud and Terin 1st Lance * 95* Kot) 3rd Category (Khas Uruzgan and Gizab) 3rd Lance * st Category (Mezana and Arghandab) 2nd Category (Tarnak wa Jaldak and Daychopan) 1st Lance * 95* nd Lance * Average on Zone level

25 Opiate Prices The average opium prices in 2008 was US$ 70/kg compare to US$86/kg in The price decreased in all region of the country by 33% (64/kg) in The UNODC and Afghan Government (Ministry of Counter Narcotics) monitor opium prices on a monthly basis in several provinces of Afghanistan. The prices decrease since 2004 because of the sustainability of high opium cultivation and production. In 2010 the average price of dry opium increased to US$ 169/kg which increased 164% compare to 2009 (64/kg). The prices increase is the reaction to the extreme reduction in opium production which is due to the opium diseases in the major southern growing provinces. The opium price of 2010 is the highest price from The opium price was higher in the years of , but those were due to the less cultivation and production of opium. This high price can encourage the farmers to go back and cultivate opium since one of the factors that farmers did not cultivate opium last year due to its low sale and price. Figure 8: Opiate Prices in Afghanistan (kg), Taliban period Transitional gov't Elected gov't Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey The insecurity in the south, added by opium disease, has resulted to a speculative mood in both opium and cannabis prices. The military surge in the south added uncertainty about the future. Farmers and traders alike hold on to stocks of opium or sell it against record profits not witnessed since the early days of the toppling of the Taliban. This monetary incentive does not bode well for the coming 2011 crop with the prospect that even provinces today considered to

26 be opium free, have not build up the resistance required (i.e. alternative livelihood and rural development) to withstand the attraction of the current peak profits. Table 5: Regional average prices of dry opium at farm-gate & trader level April& May Region Regional average price (US$/kg) /April 2010 Farmgat Trader e Regional average price (US$/kg) /May 2010 Farmgat Trader e Trader change Eastern region (Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar) % Southern region (Hilmand, Kandahar) % Western region (Badghis, Farah, Ghor, Hirat, Nimroz) % North-eastern region (Badakhshan, Takhar) % Northern region (Balkh, Faryab, Kunduz) % Average % Opium production leaded the opium prices to increase by 38% from Despite the considerably lower amount of opium produced in 2010, the increase in opium price made overall the opium business more productive. Many farmers in the disease affected areas lost their income expectations from opium but on the other hand other farmers who are not affected by the disease had a great increase in their profits. Figure 8: Opium Prices in Afghanistan (kg), 2010 Western 108 Central 133 Southern 181 Eastern 130 Northern 104 North-eastern 91 Opium price in northern region and north-eastern region is low compare to the eastern, southern and western region. It is being said that the reason behind low price in the northern region is (i) the quality of opium produce in northern compare to the opium produce in southern region (ii) Opium can be easily converted in to heroin in southern region compare to the north due to instability in the south and then it can be easily trafficked to Pakistan and Iran because of 26

27 the open border and no government control at the borders (iii) Anti government elements who also facilitate the drug cultivation, production and trafficking in the southern region enable drug traders and traffickers to purchase drugs by high prices and easily traffic it to Pakistan and Iran, since the anti government elements exists in the both sides of the Afghanistan and Pakistan border and the security is better in the northern region compare to south so the drugs can not be trafficked easily through northern area. (iv) its been also said that the purity level in the south is high compare to the northern region which affects the price in the north to be lower than the south but no specific evidence on it yet. Eastern region is the second region after south due to the price rate. (i) The three provinces in the eastern region Nangarhar, Kunar and Laghman provinces were close to be poppy free provinces hence when the production decrease due to less cultivation prices go up (ii) Drug laboratories are existed in at the border in the eastern mountainous region particularly Achin district of Nangarhar province known for drug laboratories so it is not so difficult to convert opium in to heroin thus drug traders purchase opium by any price convert it to heroin and traffic it further. When demand increase price go up. 27

28 Drug Related Crime The Criminal Justice Task Force (CJTF) is responsible for processing drug related crime. It was established in May 2005 under the Ministry of Interior Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan which closely works with Counter Narcotics Police of Afghanistan. Figure 9: Number of Cases and Persons Committed in Afghanistan Number of Cases Persons Committed Source: Afghanistan Ministry of Interior / Criminal Justice Task Force In 2005, there were 325 cases in which 447 persons arrested in relation to drug related crime. Among this number, there were 12 public servant and 16 people who are foreign nationalities committed the crime. The figures of cases and persons committed the crime increased in 2006 compared to The figures of 2006 show that in total 440 cases were identified in which 618 persons who committed the crime have been arrested in which 10 persons were foreigners. The number of cases in 2007 was 414 and 452 persons arrested. The cases and number of people arrested have been declined in 2007 compare to 2006 only and had 8 arrestees who were foreign nationalities, four from Nepal, two Pakistan, one from Iran and one was Turkish nationality. In 2008 there were 398 cases and 470 persons arrested in relation to drug related crime. Among this number, there were 21 persons were public servants, 5 were foreigners. 28

29 In 2009, the number of cases was 395 in which 499 persons arrested. Among the arrestees, 23 persons were public servants, 21 were foreign nationalities. Among these foreign nationalities 6 were Iranians, 1 Canadian, 6 Uganda, 6 Africans, 3 Nigerians, 1 Pakistani and 1 was from Zimbabwe. Narcotics is still linked to both insurgency and corruption. Net opium profits (not including the profits on cannabis) in Afghanistan are estimated around USD2 billion and about USD 125 million goes to insurgents whereas the remainder of billion is fed in the local economy such as construction, criminal networks and corruption, thereby eroding the capacity of the government to deal effectively with the insurgency Figure 10: Number of Persons Committed Drug Related Crime in Afghanistan Based on Gender, Male Female Source: Afghanistan Ministry of Interior / Criminal Justice Task Force 29

30 Opiate Use Opiate uses in Afghanistan continue to increase dramatically in all over country particularly in rural and urban areas because of wide spread of opiate and easily access to it. Mental, physical, economical and social problem resulted higher increase in the number of drug users. The UNODC survey jointly with Afghan government in 2005 and 2009 shows that In four years, the number of regular opium users in Afghanistan increased from 150, 000 to about 230,000 the increment by 53 per cent. Overall, adult drug users are estimated close to one million (940,000) people. Map 2: Opium Use by Region in Afghanistan, 2009 Most of the drug users use opium regularly for instance everyday or between 2 to 4 days a week. 40 percent of the opium users initiated opium use in Iran and 4 percent in Pakistan and up to half of them initiated in Afghanistan. Table 6: Number of illicit drug users and annual prevalence by region North E astern 82,000 69,000 95, Number Prevalence (%) Western 101,000 88, , Estimate Low High Estimate Low High Southern 107, , , Central al 253, , , Northern 171, , , Eastern 87,000 67, , Afghanistan 800, , ,

31 Heroin, followed by opium were the two drugs most users injected in the past year. Almost 6 per cent of opioid and tranquilizer users reported regularly injecting these substances in the past year. This is a disturbing finding as drug injection often leads to serious health risks such as infection with HIV and other blood borne infections. Drug users reported considerable high-risk behavior such as needle and syringe sharing. When they were injecting, the majority of injecting drug users (87 per cent) had shared a needle and syringe with other injectors. Most of the drug users (60 per cent) used a needle and syringe that had been used by two to five people before the respondent. Similarly, most drug users reported that others had used needles and syringes two to five times after their use. What s more, in the month prior to the interview, man y drug users had never cleaned their needle or syringe after another person s use. An y cleaning was done very irregularly. Not one injecting drug user had boiled or cleaned their needle and syringe. Access to Treatment Afghanistan has 34 provinces where only 21 provinces have treatment centers and most of these 21 provinces have only one treatment center in the capital of the province. Afghanistan has 398 provinces, hence on average base each province has 11 districts and most of these provinces have 1 treatment center for 11 districts while 13 provinces don t have treatment center all. In all over the country 10,474 people receive treatment annually. Figure 11: Number of drug treatment centers in Afghanistan by provinces Kabul Khost Paktya Parwan Wardak Kunar Nangarhar Badakshan Takhar Kunduz Nimroz Balkh Bamyan Faryab Jowzjan Samangan Helmand Kandahar DiyKundi Farah Heart 31

32 Conclusion Over recent years progress has been made in the field of Counter Narcotics. From its record peak in 2007 (193,000 ha) the total cultivation or surface planting has fallen down to 123,000 ha. Production (cultivation x yield = production) in 2010 was estimated at 3,600 mt, a 48% decrease form Whereas few years back near all of the 34 provinces were cultivating opium, today 98% is concentrated in 9 provinces only, most in the South and West of the country, which are dominated by insurgency and criminal networks. This mirrors the divide between the unstable and lawless south compared to the relatively more secure north. Alarming is that the insecurity in the south, added by last year's opium disease, and has resulted to a speculative mood in both opium and cannabis prices. The military surge in the south added uncertainty about the future. Farmers and traders alike hold on to stocks of opium or sell it against record profits not witnessed since the early days of the toppling of the Taliban. This monetary incentive does not bode well for the coming 2011 crop with the prospect that even provinces today considered to be opium free, have not build up the resistance required (i.e. alternative livelihood and rural development) to withstand the attraction of the current peak profits. Narcotic is still linked to both insurgency and corruption. Net opium profits (not including the profits on cannabis) in Afghanistan are estimated around USD2 billion and about USD 125 million goes to insurgents whereas the remainder of billion is fed in the local economy such as construction, criminal networks and corruption, thereby eroding the capacity of the government to deal effectively with the insurgency. Like most Afghans, the average addict is poor. On average, the typical drug user earned around USD 1145 (5,500 Afghanis) during the month.. He supplements his income, presumably to meet the costs of his drug use or to help his family, by either selling his assets, borrowing money, stealing, begging, or committing other crimes. The nascent judicial and penitentiary systems are overloaded by 'petty drug' cases, resulting in health and human rights challenges. 32

33 References Criminal Justice Task Force of Afghanistan Ministry of Counter Narcotics of Afghanistan Ministry of Interior of Afghanistan UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 1998 UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 1999 UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2000 UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2001 UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2002 UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2003 UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2004 UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2005 UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2006 UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2007 UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008 UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2009 UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2010 UNODC, Afghanistan Drug Use Survey

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