EFSA projects on PPR, sheep pox, lumpy skin disease. Franck Berthe Animal and Plant Health Unit European Food Safety Authority - EFSA

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1 EFSA projects on PPR, sheep pox, lumpy skin disease Franck Berthe Animal and Plant Health Unit European Food Safety Authority - EFSA 9th JPC REMESA Tunis, Tunisie - 03 and 04 November 2014

2 BACKGROUND PPR, SPP/GTP, LSD are exotic to the EU, but present in countries neighbouring EU (Turkey, n. Africa) >> increasing chance of incursion SPP outbreaks occurred in Greece and Bulgaria in EC needs update assessment of the risk of introduction and spread of PPR, SPP/GTP, LSD, and to determine if further measures are justified Timeline: SPP document to be published by end of November, LSD and PPR by end of December 2

3 Main title TERMS OF REFERENCE WHAT TO BE ASSESSED Characterise the disease Update on the global occurrence Mapping of animal movements in the Mediterranean Basin and Black sea Evaluate pathways of introduction into the EU and ranking Assess the risk of introduction and speed of propagation into the EU and neighbouring countries Assess the risk of endemicity in animal population in the EU and neighbouring countries Assess the impact if enter the EU considering different scenarios review the feasibility, availability and effectiveness of the main disease prevention and control measures 3

4 APPROACH, METHODOLOGY, OUTPUTS 1. Characterise the disease and global occurrence Literature review Mapping Case studies: SPP PPR LSD Greece Northern African countries Israel Bulgaria Turkey Turkey China 4

5 APPROACH, METHODOLOGY, OUTPUTS Animal movements Screening of different database (Eurostat, TRACES, FAO, national authorities) Topics considered: trade of animals and relevant products, animal migrations, socio-political drivers Flow maps Pathways of introduction Literature review Field evidence information from OIE + ADNS Expert knowledge elicitation (questionnaire +analysis) 5

6 APPROACH, METHODOLOGY, OUTPUTS Risk of introduction (for LSD and PPR) Probability of introduction to EU via illegal movement of animals Scenario analysis with different values of seroprevalence in the country of origin and different shipment size of illegal animals (N) moved to EU Output: estimation of number of animals to be moved so to have probability =1 to introduce PPR in Europe 6

7 APPROACH, METHODOLOGY, OUTPUTS Speed of propagation SPP: mathematical model of spread (kernel based) using data from the 2013/14 outbreaks in the EU and European Turkey. Prediction of SPP spread between NUTS3 regions in Europe. LSD: mathematical model of LSD spread based on between-farms transmission in Israel, to be validated with Turkish outbreak data, and simulations to be performed in EU. PPR: plot of temporal and spatial linkages between PPR outbreaks in Tunisia and estimation of potential ranges of speed of propagation Comparison to the literature and discussion 7

8 APPROACH, METHODOLOGY, OUTPUTS Risk of endemicity Qualitative assessment Expert knowledge Field evidence from outbreak investigation Impact Impact assessment with data from affected countries Impact assessment in endemic countries (literature review) Simulation of affected farms and animals in different scenarios after incursion in EU (SPP and LSD) 8

9 APPROACH, METHODOLOGY, OUTPUTS Effectiveness of prevention and control measures Diagnostic tools Biosecurity, movement restrictions, culling Vaccines & vaccination Comparison of implementation in free and endemic areas Methodology: literature review, lessons learnt from case studies, expert knowledge 9

10 Main title QUESTIONNAIRE FOR REMESA FOCAL POINTS AIM: Increase cooperation between EU and REMESA countries Specific objective: information sharing to enhance the level of preparedness and awareness about animal diseases and their control both in EU and northern African countries Topic: PPR epidemiology in Northern Africa, to explore possible pathways of introduction and spread 10

11 Main title Thank you for your attention! Acknowledgements to the team! AHAW Panel Experts of WGs Contractors EFSA staff 11

12 Main title If someone is interested in the spread model of SPP 12

13 Main title RISK AND SPEED OF SPREAD OF SPP Methodology A model to evaluate the spread of SPPV over space (data 2013/14 outbreaks in EU and European Turkey) The continental-scale spread resolution : NUTS3 different models and assumptions tested Three scenarios for the spread of SPP in the EU after 1, 6, 12 months and after 5 years: incursion in the regions of Bulgaria and Greece incursion in Croatia and Hungary, over Balkans incursion in southern Spain, from northern Africa. 13

14 Main title RISK AND SPEED OF SPREAD OF SGP three components of the model: transmission between NUTS3 regions duration for which SPPV circulates within a region the number of infected holdings within a region Transmission between regions was modelled using a kernel-based approach 14

15 Main title RISK AND SPEED OF SPREAD OF SPP 4 models for dependence of the force of infection on host demography: (i) no dependence (i.e. D i =1) (ii) proportional to the number of holdings with sheep, N i (i.e. D i = N i ) (iii) proportional to the number of sheep, S i (i.e. D i =S i ) (iv) proportional to mean holding size (i.e. D i =S i /N i ) The best fitting model: transmission between regions proportional to the number of sheep per NUTS3 15

16 Force of inf = Main title No dependence Nr holdings Nr sheep holding size Predicted spatial spread of sheep pox virus in Europe under different incursion scenarios. 16

17 1 month 6 months Main title 12 months 5 years Simulation of SPP/GTP spread over EU after incursion in Greece and Bulgaria probability of an area becoming infected, the force of infection between regions is proportional to the number of sheep /NUTS3 and given the control measures as applied in Greece and Bulgaria. 17

18 1 month 6 months Main title 12 months 5 years Simulation of SPP/GTP spread over EU after incursion in Croatia and Hungary, over Balkans probability of an area becoming infected, the force of infection between regions is proportional to the number of sheep /NUTS3 and given the control measures as applied in Greece and Bulgaria. 18

1 month 6 months Main title 12 months 5 years Simulation of SPP/GTP spread over EU after incursion in southern Spain probability of an area becoming

19 1 month 6 months Main title 12 months 5 years Simulation of SPP/GTP spread over EU after incursion in southern Spain probability of an area becoming infected, the force of infection between regions is proportional to the number of sheep /NUTS3 and given the control measures as applied in Greece and Bulgaria. 19

20 Main title ASSUMPTIONS & LIMITATIONS the contact patterns within Europe are similar to those in Bulgaria and Greece. limited availability of data analysis restricted to an evaluation of the probability of SPPV transmission over a given distance; f(nr number of herds or sheep in a region) This model does not distinguish between possible transmission routes Large uncertainty in quantifying the level of transmission. the model predictions to be considered as an example of the options when assessing risk of SPP epidemics in EU 20

Exotic diseases approaching EU EFSA mandates on PPR, sheep pox, lumpy skin disease

Exotic diseases approaching EU EFSA mandates on PPR, sheep pox, lumpy skin disease Frank Verdonck Animal and Plant Health Unit European Food Safety Authority - EFSA PAFF meeting -13-14 Jan 2015 BACKGROUND