Changchun Office and Retail Market Overview

Transcription

1 Changchun Office and Retail Market Overview 217

2 Macro Overview 2

3 Changchun Economic Overview Economic Indicators (Q3 217) Changchun Tianjin Qingdao Shenyang Dalian Xi an Population (Million, 216) City Area (sq km) 4,789 4,334 1,471 3,495 2,415 3,866 GDP (RMB1 million) Value-added of Tertiary Industry (RMB1 million,) Unemployment Rate (216) Total Retail Sales (RMB1 million) 4, , , ,79.7 5, ,49.7 2, ,18.6 4, ,39.2 2, , % 3.5% 3.1% 3.1% 2.9% 3.3% 2, , ,28.8 2,92.1 2,686 3,56.6 Per Capita Disposable Income of Urban Residents (RMB) 31,69.4 (216) 29,448 35,318 3,727 3,199 24,498 Consumer Price Index (Nov) Real Estate Development Investment (RMB1 million) , ,233.8 (Nov) ,664.5 Source: Statistics Bureau of each city, research 3

4 Changchun Economic Overview Major Land Transactions Plot Code GB GB51 Buyer Changchun Vanke Real Estate Development Co., LTD Changchun Dingju Real Estate Development Co., LTD Transaction Date Land-use Type District Land Area (sq m) Price (RMB million) Plot Ratio Accommodation Cost (RMB/sq m) Q4 217 Mixed Use Nanguan 5, >1, <2.2 4,411 Q4 217 Commercial Erdao 17, <3.4 1, GB GB GB GB GB GB124 China Resource Company (Changchun) Changchun OuYa Jingyue Shopping Center Co., LTD Changchun Fuhua Cultural Tourism Development Co., LTD Changchun Jijun Real Estate Development Co., LTD Changchun Huafang Baili Real Estate Development Co., LTD Changchun Dongfang Real Estate Development Co., LTD Q4 217 Mixed Use Nanguan 52, >1, <2 6,475 Q4 217 Commercial Jingyue 98, >1, < Q4 217 Commercial Jingyue 97, >1, 1.2 1,11.7 Q4 217 Mixed Use Kuancheng 68, >1, <2.5 1,529 Q4 217 Mixed Use Kuancheng 46,178 6,16 >1, < Q4 217 Mixed Use Jingkai 2,1 5,52 >1, <2.3 1,2 Source: Changchun Bureau of Land Resource, research 4

5 Changchun Grade A Office Market 5

6 Changchun Grade A Office Market Submarket highlights Average Rental: RMB11.8 Availability Ratio: 31.2% Average Rental: RMB17 Availability Ratio: 17.3% Chongqing Road Yatai Average Rental: RMB96 Availability Ratio: 25% Average Rental: RMB94.1 Availability Ratio: 23.5% Hongqi Remin Average Rental: RMB66 Availability Ratio: 2% Jingyue Development Zone Emerging Market Note: Average rent (RMB/sq m/mo) refers to face rent based on GFA Source: Google Maps from Site Solution II Report, research 6

7 Changchun Grade A Office Market Market Dynamics sq m 16, 12, 8, 4, Chongqing Road Renmin Office Stock Office Stock and Vacancy Rate-By Submarket (2H 217) Yatai Hongqi Vacancy Rate Jingyue 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Major Leasing Transactions At year-end, Changchun s Grade A office stock amounted to approximately 472, sq m. Changchun s four core office submarkets are Chongqing Road, Renmin, Yatai and Hongqi as well as the emerging submarket in Jingyue Development Zone. Chongqing Road boasts the largest amount of office space by submarket, accounting for 34.7% of Changchun s stock. The second largest office submarket is Renmin with 29% of the city s stock. The overall vacancy rate finished the year at 23.8%. Renmin Road holds the lowest vacancy rate by submarket at 17.3%, as a number of new occupiers are drawn to one of the city s most prominent streets. Building Submarket Tenant Area (sq m) Approximately Global Trade Center Rongda Tianxi Jingyue Chongqing Road Jilin Fanglian Medicine Co., Ltd N/A CreditEase 5 Changchun s office market is becoming increasingly mature, and as a reflection of this is attracting notable companies such as CreditEase. Leasing activity in 2H included China Eastern Airlines taking out a 35 sq m office in Honghui International Square. Elsewhere, Jilin Unifun Medicine leased out space in Global Trade Center. Honghui International Square Renmin China Eastern Airlines 35 Source: research 7

8 Changchun Grade A Office Market Market Dynamics Rental by Submarket (2H 217) RMB/sq m/mo/gross floor area Average rent for Changchun s Grade A offices was approximately RMB99.7 per sq m per month based on GFA at the end of 217. By submarket, Chongqing Road held the highest average rent at RMB11.8 per sq m per month. At the other end was the Jingyue Development Zone, at RMB66 per sq m per month on average, due to its distant location from downtown. sq m 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Chongqing Road Renmin Yatai Hongqi Jingyue Average Rent(including management fee) Year-end Stock and Forecast In 218, Weifeng Information Center is scheduled to enter Jingyue Development Zone, adding 7, sq m of new supply. Changchun s office stock is estimated to hit 55, sq m by the end of 218. At the same time, Jingyue Development Zone is expected to become a hot spot region for companies to settle in given the infrastructure improvements in the emerging submarket. Source: research 8

9 Changchun Grade A Office Market Future Supply ( ) sq m 2, 18, 16, 14, Hengxing International Center 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Weifeng Information Center Changchun International Financial Center Huihai International Changchun Financial Center Jingyue Development Zone Renmin Yatai Chaoyang Source: research 9

10 Changchun Prime Retail Market 1

11 Changchun Prime Retail Market Submarket Highlights Average Rent: RMB1 4 Occupancy Rate: 91% Average Rent: RMB 2-6 Occupancy Rate: 98% Average Rent: RMB15-5 Occupancy Rate: 97% Hongqi Average Rent: RMB1 4 Occupancy Rate: 87% Kuancheng District Chongqing Road Guilin Road Average Rent: RMB1 4 Occupancy Rate: 9% Southern New Town Average Rent: RMB1 45 Occupancy Rate: 9% Others Average Rent: RMB15 4 Occupancy Rate: 91% Jingyue Development Zone Emerging Market Note: Average rents (RMB/sq m/mo) are based on ground floor in prime locations in major shopping centers, excluding management fee, promotional fee and other fees. Source: Google Maps from Site Solution II Report, research 11

12 Changchun Prime Retail Market Market Dynamics sq m 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Chongqing Kuancheng Road District Retail Stock, New Supply and Vacancy Rate-By Submarket (2H 217) Guilin Road Hongqi Southern New Town Jingyue Retail Stock New Supply Vacancy Rate Others Changchun s prime retail stock amounted to approximately 12% 3.6 million sq m at the end of 217. There are six major 1% retail submarkets in the city: Chongqing Road, Kuancheng District, Guilin Road, Hongqi, Southern New Town 8% and Jingyue Development Zone. 6% 4% 2% % Southern New Town and Jingyue Development Zone are emerging retail submarkets in the southern part of Changchun. This area should become increasingly active ahead as quality projects in the pipeline are completed. Changchun s overall vacancy rate was 8% at the end of 217. Space is especially tight in Chongqing Road and Hongqi at below 3% in each, as the submarkets benefit from high-end projects. Major Store Openings Building Submarket Tenant Area (sq m) Ouya New Life Hongqi Muma Family 4, Livon Plaza Others Suntree Supermarket 5, Ouya LOHAS Hongqi Tarako Sports N/A In Joy Plaza Others Miu Electronic Games N/A Livon Plaza welcomed Northeast China s first Suntree Supermarket, which provides customers with a wine tasting area and experience zone for expecting mothers. Miu Electronic Games and Tarako Sports opened new stores in Joy Plaza and Ouya LOHAS, respectively. Shopping malls in Changchun also added more thematic features to attract customers. One such example is In Joy Plaza, which showcases a replica Transformers figure near the entrance. Elsewhere, Ouya New Life added a stunning new glass skybridge. Source: research 12

13 Changchun Prime Retail Market Market Dynamics RMB/sq m/month Rental By Submarket (2H 217) Changchun s retail market mainly consists of department stores. The average asking rent for ground floor space was RMB42 per sq m per month at the end of 217. The city s most expensive retail submarket in which to take out space on average is Chongqing Road. The submarket s malls include Charter shopping center, which is one of the city s most prominent malls containing numerous high-end luxury brands. Hongqi is the second costliest submarket on average for retail space. Average Asking Rents sq m 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Year-end Stock and Forecast Brands are rapidly expanding in Changchun as the retail market increasingly develops. New shopping malls built by mature developers should bring quality brands to Changchun s retail market and enhance the shopping experience for customers. Meanwhile, some existing malls are busy updating their formats to offer cultural and creative elements and interactive experiences. From 218 to 221, only 3% of retail supply in the pipeline is to be located in Changchun s traditional submarkets. The remaining new supply is expected to be spread around the third or fourth ring road away from downtown. The new malls are likely to play a part in accelerating urbanization in decentralized areas of the city. Source: research 13

14 Changchun Prime Retail Market Future Supply ( ) sq m 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, Ouya Wanhao Center Vitality Mall Yuanyang Wangfujing Scitech Outlet Beihu Ouya Shopping Center 1, 5, Xinxingyu Square Ouya Shopping Center Huayi Center Kuancheng Ouya Southern New Town Jingyue Development Zone Kuancheng District Jingkai Area Source: research 14

15 Business Contacts Jason Zhang General Manager, Dalian & Shenyang Offices Sabrina Wei Head of North China Research Sean Wang Vice President, Greater China Managing Director, North China Loki Xu Assistant Analyst, Research, Dalian James Shepherd Managing Director, Research, Greater China Unit 1-2, 16th Floor, Xiwang Tower, 136 Zhongshan Road Zhongshan District Dalian Tel: cushmanwakefield.cn Disclaimer This report has been produced by for use by those with an interest in commercial property solely for information purposes. It is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers. The report uses information obtained from public sources which believe to be reliable, but we have not verified such information and cannot guarantee that it is accurate and complete. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained herein and shall not be liable to any reader of this report or any third party in any way whatsoever. shall not be held responsible for and shall be released and held harmless from any decision made together with any risks associated with such decision in reliance upon any expression of opinion in the report. Our prior written consent is required before this report can be reproduced in whole or in part. 218 All rights reserved.