The Relationship between Eco-Social System Changes, the Animal/Human Interface and Viral Disease Emergence

Transcription

1 Emerging Viral Diseases The One Health Connection Institute of Medicine - Forum on Microbial Threats Washington D.C., March 2014 The Relationship between Eco-Social System Changes, the Animal/Human Interface and Viral Disease Emergence Dirk Pfeiffer Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology Honorary Professor at London School of Health & Tropical Medicine United Nations - Food and Agriculture Organisation Reference Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology

2 Outline Context Eco-social changes Disease emergence Systems perspective Conclusions 2

3 CONTEXT 3

4 Global Megatrends More from less Great expectations Going, going gone Virtually here The silk highway Forever young from CSIRO Our Future World

5 Global Risk Map 2014 From World Economic Forum Global Risk Report 2014

6 ECO-SOCIAL CHANGES 6

7 Global Urbanisation Trends ( ) from 7

8 Travel Time to Next City 00/mg _1000.jpg 8

9 Global Forest Cover Loss/Gain between 2000 and 2012 From: M C Hansen et al. Science 2013;342:

10 Global Pattern of Meat Production Density ( ) Source: FAOSTAT

11 Food Zones for Food Security 11 From: Straits Times

12 Emergence of Global Value Chains 12

13 Moving beyond the Connectivity Avalanche From: Mark Notaras 13

14 Global Agro-Food Trade Network in 2007 (44 country nodes with largest import+export activity) Ercsey-Ravasz M, Toroczkai Z, Lakner Z, Baranyi J (2012) Complexity of the International Agro-Food Trade Network and Its Impact on Food Safety. PLoS ONE 7(5): e doi: /journal.pone :doi/ /journal.pone

15 This Man Delivers 35 Food Products 60 Countries 5 Continents in 1 Box (from Reilly FSAI)

16 Eco-System Services to Human Societies diversity of living organisms and ecosystems provides people with wide range of valuable ecosystem services provisioning food, raw materials, medicines and genetic resources regulating environment, for example via carbon storage and sequestration, mitigating hazards from flooding and other disasters, pollinating crops and preventing erosion cultural services such as providing opportunities for recreation and ecotourism, and delivering spiritual and educational values 16 From: European Environment Agency 2013

17 Global Pattern of Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (HANPP) From: Haberl H et al. PNAS 2007;104: by National Academy of Sciences

18 Spatial Disconnect between HANPP and Consumption From: Erb et al 2009 Ecological Economics 18

19 DISEASE EMERGENCE 19

20 FMDV - Movement of FMD Infected Animals between February 7 and 23 in UK 2001 FMD Outbreak prior to Movement Standstill 20

21 Bluetongue Virus Incursions into Europe BTV-8 BTV-9 BTV-4 EHDV BTV-1 BTV-2 & BTV-4 BTV-4 BTV-16 BTV-15 EHDV BTV-1 From: EFSA Bluetongue Epi report 2006

22 Schmallenberg Virus (by Nov 2012) 22

23 African Swine Fever Spread in Eastern Europe since 2007 Source: FAO EMPRES-i

24 HPAIV H5N1 - HA Clades of in Asia, Africa and Europe ( ) , , 2.2 1, 2.3, 7 2.2, , , 1, , 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, , 2.3 0,1, 2.3, 3,5, 8 2.3, 2.4, 2.5 0, 2.1 updated from: Pfeiffer et al 2011 The Veterinary Journal

25 Chronology of a Couple of Selected Disease Emergence and Spread Events PRRS PMWS BSE UK (1986 -> 2004+) CSF Netherlands, Germany, Belgium (1997 -> 1998) H5N1 East Asia (2004 -> today) Nipah Malaysia (1998 -> 1999) FMD UK (2001) SARS (2003) Bluetongue serotype 8 Northern Europe (2006 -> today) H7N7 Netherlands (2003) African swine fever Eastern Europe (2007 -> today) Hendra virus Australia (1994) Equine Influenza Australia (2007) Q fever Netherlands (2007 -> 2010) Schmallenberg virus Northern Europe (2011 -> today)

26 SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE (ECOHEALTH / ONE HEALTH) 26

27 Transmission of HPAIV H5N1 in SE-Asia adapted from V. Martin, FAO-AGA

28 Motivations 28

29 Context Societal, cultural and ecological influences Goal(s) eg public health, economic security, social stability, animal and environmental health Livestock production Humans Animals Environment Disease emergence Institutional context Animal and human health service Patterns, provision and access Regulation and governance

30 Technocratic Models for Policy Development Science Policy development Communication From Millstone, E., et al. (2004). Science in trade disputes related to potential risks: Comparative case studies. Technical Report Series. O. Wolf, D. Ibarreta and P. Sorup. Seville, Spain, European Commission Joint Research Centre - Institute for Prospective Technological Studies:

31 Risk Governance Framework (from IRGC 2005) What is to be done and how? Framing Broad description of risk Assessment Management Communi - cation Evaluate acceptability Evaluation Analyse knowledge, estimate risk, express complexity and uncertainty 31

32 CONCLUSIONS 32

33 Conclusions Eco-social change Complex and dynamic relationships Interaction between natural and man-made phenomena Science Needs to embrace systems thinking and integrated research approaches Link biological and environmental with social sciences Policy development Change from linear technocratic models to risk governance framework 33