Research Design. ESP 178 Applied Research Methods Calvin Thigpen 1/19/17
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1 Research Design ESP 178 Applied Research Methods Calvin Thigpen 1/19/17
2 What have we focused on so far? What is still to come?
3
4 My hypothesis Living on a cul-de-sac Outdoor play How true is the following? Living unit on cul-de-sac rather than through street 1= not at all true 4=entirely true If you live with children under the age of 16, how many days in the last 7 days did they play outdoors somewhere in your neighborhood (besides your backyard)?
5 Cross-Sectional Study Difference in street associated with difference in outdoor play
6 Some survey data Times playing outside in last 7 days Not cul-de-sac Cul-de-sac
7 Does this mean my hypothesis is right? If we move everyone to cul-de-sacs, will children play outside more? Is there a causal relationship?
8 What else could be going on??
9 What I want to know Type of street causes outdoor play 9
10 Causality Criterion #1: Association
11 Is there an association between living on a cul-de-sac and outdoor play? 5.0 Times playing outside in last 7 days Not cul-de-sac Cul-de-sac
12 Now what do you think? 5.0 Times playing outside in last 7 days Not cul-de-sac Cul-de-sac
13 Causality Criterion #2: Non-spuriousness
14 What else might explain the association? Something else causes both living on cul-de-sac and outdoor play??? If IV and DV both caused by a third factor, then relationship is spurious
15 Another example of a spurious relationship???
16 Another example of a spurious relationship???
17 Another example of a spurious relationship???
18 Controlling for third variables Type Elimination Inclusion ( statistical ) Manipulation Randomization Approach Restrict study to specific subset of the extraneous variable, e.g. only one gender or income group Measure extraneous variables and include them as covariates in statistical analysis MORE WHEN WE GET TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Control levels of treatment, and compare treatment group(s) to control group MORE WHEN WE GET TO EXPERIMENTS Random selection: see SAMPLING! Random assignment: see EXPERIMENTS!
19 Causality Criterion #3: Time Order
20 So let s say we re-do the study. We again find an association between culde-sacs and outdoor play, and we included other variables to address possible spurious relationships. We still don t have an especially strong case for CAUSALITY... We can t say: If we move everyone to cul-de-sacs, children will play outside more
21 What I need to show Change in type of street leads to change outdoor play 22
22 Or the other way around Change in type of street leads to change outdoor play 23
23 Basic types of designs Cross sectional Comparison of different groups at one point in time Longitudinal Comparison of different points in time for same group
24 Why don t we always do longitudinal studies?
25 Treatment of time Type Cross-sectional Longitudinal Repeat cross-sectional Longitudinal Panel Experimental Description Comparison of groups of people that differ on IV at one point in time Comparison of different groups of people that differ on IV at two (or more) points in time Comparison of same groups of people that differ on IV at two (or more) points in time Comparison of treatment group and control group, before and after treatment MORE NEXT WEEK
26 Longitudinal options Repeat cross-sectional Panel Time 1 Time 2
27 Treatment of time Type Cross-sectional Longitudinal Repeat cross-sectional Longitudinal Panel Experimental Description Comparison of groups of people that differ on IV at one point in time Comparison of different groups of people that differ on IV at two (or more) points in time Comparison of same groups of people that differ on IV at two (or more) points in time Comparison of treatment group and control group, before and after treatment MORE NEXT WEEK Treatment can be a policy or program intervention
28 Study progression Cross-sectional studies Establish associations Basis for designing interventions Intervention studies Before-and-after measures Establish causal relationship
29 Causality Criterion #4: Causal Mechanism
30 What might be a compelling causal story? Identify and test the moderating/intervening variables
31 Causality Criterion #5: Context
32 Context California China Replicate studies in different contexts Related to moderating variables Also related to external validity - generalizability
33 Recap Causal Validity Criterion Explanation How to address it Association Nonspurious If cause happens, effect happens; if no cause, no effect. No extraneous third variable that can explain association. Measure outcome across groups with different levels of treatment. Test for statistical correlation. Control for third variable: e.g. elimination or inclusion Time order Cause comes before effect. Use longitudinal design or experiment Causal Mechanism Context Logical explanation for how cause leads to effect. Understand the conditions under which the relationship holds Identify and test mediating/intervening variables. Replicate study in different contexts.
34 Let s try the causality criteria on some examples from the news
35 Fun with Associations New York Times Does this ad make me fat? 3/8/13
36 Fun with Associations New York Times Privilege, Pathology and Power 1/1/16
37 Fun with Associations New York Times To improve a memory consider chocolate 10/26/14
38 Fun with Associations National Public Radio The family dinner deconstructed 2/7/08
39 Fun with Associations Planetizen New study finds asthmatic children cause inner city traffic congestion 4/1/13 (early) April fools!
40 Walk-out and Teach-in tomorrow Walk-out for Donald Trump s inauguration Teach-in regarding possible impacts of Pres. Trump s policies (civil rights, science funding, etc.) Multipurpose Room, SCC Starting 8:45 going through 5 pm If you choose to miss discussion section to participate, we ask that you write a 300 word description of how you would use research design principles to evaluate one of Trump s proposed policies ( Provide brief background to policy, come up with a simple conceptual model, describe how you would operationalize it, and consider construct and internal validity. to your discussion lead, due 1/24 by 4:30 pm
41 To do Assignment #1: Have your proposal topic ready to discuss on Friday Full assignment due Tuesday, 1/24 Tuesday causality in-class exercise! Read ecological fallacy explanations Type of Validity Definition An issue in Measurement Validity Measure of a variable is accurate operationalization and measurement Internal (causal) Relationships revealed by research design Validity study are real External Validity (generalizability) Results of study can be generalized to other populations sampling
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