Research Design. ESP178 Research Methods Dr. Susan Handy 1/19/16
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1 Research Design ESP178 Research Methods Dr. Susan Handy 1/19/16
2 My hypothesis Living on a cul-de-sac Outdoor play How true is the following? Living unit on cul-de-sac rather than through street 1= not at all true 4=entirely true If you live with children under the age of 16, how many days in the last 7 days did they play outdoors somewhere in your neighborhood (besides your backyard)?
3 Some survey data Times playing outside in last 7 days Not cul-de-sac Cul-de-sac
4 Does this mean my hypothesis is right? If we move everyone to cul-de-sacs, will children play outside more? Is there a causal relationship?
5 What else could be going on??
6 Cross-Sectional Study Difference in street associated with difference in outdoor play 6
7 What I want to know Type of street causes outdoor play 7
8 What else is possible Desire for outdoor play causes living on cul-de-sac If DV causes IV, we have reverse causality 8
9 Another thing that is possible Something else causes both living on cul-de-sac and outdoor play??? 9 If IV and DV both caused by a third factor, then relationship is spurious
10 Another example of a spurious relationship???
11 Another example of a spurious relationship???
12 Another example of a spurious relationship???
13 What I want to establish is CAUSALITY If we move everyone to cul-de-sacs, children will play outside more
14 What I need to show Change in type of street leads to change outdoor play 14
15 Or the other way around Change in type of street leads to change outdoor play 15
16 Basic types of designs Cross sectional Comparison of different groups at one point in time Longitudinal Comparison of different points in time for same group
17 So what type of study is better for establishing causality?
18 Criteria for Causality Validity Criterion Association Non-spurious Time order Causal Mechanism Context Explanation If cause happens, effect happens; if no cause, no effect. No extraneous third variable that can explain association. Cause comes before effect. Logical explanation for how cause leads to effect. Understand the conditions under which the relationship holds How does a cross-sectional study do on these criteria? How does a longitudinal study do on these criteria?
19 Why don t we always do longitudinal studies?
20 Treatment of time Type Cross-sectional Longitudinal Repeat cross-sectional Longitudinal Panel Experimental Description Comparison of groups that differ on IV at one point in time Comparison of groups that differ on IV at two (or more) points in time Comparison of groups that differ on IV at two (or more) points in time Comparison of treatment group and control group, before and after treatment MORE NEXT WEEK
21 Longitudinal options Repeat cross-sectional Panel Time 1 Time 2
22 Treatment of time Type Cross-sectional Longitudinal Repeat cross-sectional Longitudinal Panel Experimental Description Comparison of groups that differ on IV at one point in time Comparison of groups that differ on IV at two (or more) points in time Comparison of groups that differ on IV at two (or more) points in time Comparison of treatment group and control group, before and after treatment MORE NEXT WEEK Treatment can be a policy or program intervention
23 Study progression Cross-sectional studies Establish associations Basis for designing interventions Intervention studies Before-and-after measures Establish causal relationship
24 Controlling for third variables Type Elimination Inclusion Statistical control Manipulation Randomization Approach Restrict study to specific subset of the extraneous variable, e.g. only one gender or income group Have a big enough sample to be able to study the effects of extraneous variables Measure extraneous variables and include them as covariates in statistical analysis Compare treatment group to control group MORE WHEN WE GET TO EXPERIMENTS Random selection: see SAMPLING! Random assignment: see EXPERIMENTS!
25 Causal Mechanism Identify and test the intervening variables
26 Context California China Replicate studies in different contexts Related to external validity - generalizability
27 Recap Causal Validity Criterion Explanation How to address it Association Nonspurious If cause happens, effect happens; if no cause, no effect. No extraneous third variable that can explain association. Use cross-sectional design. Test for statistical correlation. Control for third variable: e.g. elimination or inclusion w/statistical control Time order Cause comes before effect. Use longitudinal design or experiment Causal Mechanism Context Logical explanation for how cause leads to effect. Understand the conditions under which the relationship holds Identify and test intervening variables. Replicate study in different contexts.
28 Fun with Associations New York Times Does this ad make me fat? 3/8/13
29 Fun with Associations New York Times Privilege, Pathology and Power 1/1/16
30 Fun with Associations New York Times But will it stop cancer? 11/1/05
31 Fun with Associations New York Times every other week, it seems
32 Fun with Associations New York Times To improve a memory consider chocolate 10/26/14
33 Fun with Associations New York Times New hints that red wine may slow aging 6/4/08
34 Fun with Associations New York Times Drink to your health (in moderation), the science says 12/21/15
35 Fun with Associations State Liquor Tax New York Times A way to lower S.T.D. rates 12/17/15 Note: Study uses state as unit of analysis
36 Fun with Associations National Public Radio The family dinner deconstructed 2/7/08
37 Fun with Associations Planetizen New study finds asthmatic children cause inner city traffic congestion 4/1/13 April fools!
38 To do Me grading! You reading! Thursday causality exercise! Type of Validity Definition An issue in Measurement Validity Measure of a variable is accurate operationalization and measurement Internal (causal) Relationships revealed by research design Validity study are real External Validity (generalizability) Results of study can be generalized to other populations sampling
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