IRI Pulse Report Chilled and Fresh

Transcription

1 IRI Pulse Report Chilled and Fresh Welcome to the Pulse H edition for chilled and fresh food. We hope you find it useful. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or comments at H IRIworldwide.com

2 About the Report This chilled and fresh report is one of 10 super category reports designed to show highlevel comparison and analysis for retail markets across major countries in Europe. This report contains data gathered from around Europe. This market was split into the following categories: yogurts, dairy desserts and drinks, cream, eggs, margarines, butter, fats and spreads, milk, cheese, chilled juices, fresh desserts, salads, tofu/soya, chilled dips and sauces, ready meals, chilled fish and seafood, charcuterie, fresh vegetables and fresh fruit. The report highlights key metrics, such as total sales figures, market trends, category shares, winners and losers for Europe and for individual countries. The data has been sourced from IRI retail databases and Eurostat the statistical branch of administration for the European Commission. The countries included in the report are: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom (UK). The market channels used for each country in this report are as follows: Country UK ES DE NL IT FR Channels used Hypermarkets, supermarkets, drugstores and impulse outlets Hypermarkets, supermarkets, hard discounters and drugstores. It includes the Canary Islands Hypermarkets, supermarkets, hard discounters and drugstores Hypermarkets, supermarkets, hard discounters and drugstores Hypermarkets, supermarkets, small self service, hard discounters and drugstores Hypermarkets and supermarkets For analytical purposes the data sourced from available retail databases has been consolidated to provide consistent results. However, for some countries it was not possible to source data pertaining to certain categories. Where this has occurred it has been documented in the Notes section at the end of the report. 2

3 On the Radar Chilled and fresh has seen growth slow over the latest quarter as deflationary pressures continue to decrease value. In many countries this has been driven by the growth of private label and discounters. Higher prices have previously been supporting value, but volume is also struggling in some categories, often due to shallower deals impacting promotional uplifts. NPD has played an important role across some categories, being less susceptible to pricing pressures, therefore adding category value. ECONOMIC FIGURES INFLUENCING CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR POPULATION IN MILLIONS UNEMPLOYMENT (%) AVERAGE 12 MONTHS INFLATION RATES GDP IN MILLIONS ( ) Jan Jan Avg Jun Avg Jun (Estimate) France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain United Kingdom Source: Eurostat, Jan

4 GLOBAL TRENDS TOTAL CHILLED & FRESH VALUE SALES AND % CHANGE VERSUS PRIOR YEAR -3.7% +0.7% +2.5% +0.6% VALUE SALES IN MILLIONS ( ) Total EU DE FR IT NL UK % +2.6% ES *based on an exchange rate of 1.31 to the pound TOTAL EUROPE +0.8% TOTAL CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE SALES FOR THE LAST SIX QUARTERS France Germany Italy giu set dic dic mar giu-16 Netherlands Spain UK Period Ending and prior five quarters 4

5 Europe CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR Charcuterie Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Chilled Juices Fresh Desserts Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Fresh Vegetables Eggs Fresh Fruit SHARE OF CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE FOR THE YEAR Charcuterie 20.8% 20.7% Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks 10.6% 8.8% Chilled Juices 8.4% Fresh Desserts 5.1% Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads 4.6% Fresh Vegetables 4.5% Eggs 3.7% Fresh Fruit 2.8% Chilled Fish and Seafood 2.6% Salads 2.6% KEY TRENDS The chilled and fresh market in Europe is worth 102.8m and remains in small growth (0.8%). The UK is the only country seeing value decline (-3.7%) whilst the Netherlands (2.5%) and Italy (+2.6%) are the fastest growing. UK chilled categories, particularly dairy, are suffering from price deflation exacerbated by the continuing price competition between retailers and discounters. Meats and cheese are the biggest categories within chilled, together accounting for over 40% of sales but both of these categories have lost share over the latest year. Milk 2.3% Cream 1.6% Chilled Dips and Sauces 0.8% Tofu / Soya 0.1% Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom 5

6 Charcuterie Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Chilled Juices Europe TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES ,6-94,9 Milk Fresh Fruit 258,9-95,7 Cream Fresh Vegetables 228,5-132,0 Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Eggs 181,5-160,8 Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Chilled Fish and Seafood 129,4-198,3 TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION Value sales ( ) and % change versus a year ago CATEGORY INSIGHTS Ready meals followed by fruit and vegetables are the biggest contributors to the chilled and fresh category s growth in the latest year Conversely, cheese, butters & spreads and yogurts are the categories in decline and slowing overall growth. -0,0-0,9-1,2 5,3 1,2 The bulk of decline in cheese is coming from the UK where price deflation is responsible for the value decline (as volume is up slightly). is also experiencing a fall in Germany of -1.1% versus a year ago. The bulk of the decline seen in margarine, butter, fats and spreads is being driven by Germany. Germany accounts for 82% of the decline in total Europe which is due to a drop in price and a decline in non promoted sales. % vs. YA Europe includes: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom 6

7 France CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR Charcuterie Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Chilled Fish and Seafood Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Fresh Desserts Salads Eggs Fresh Vegetables SHARE OF CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE FOR THE YEAR Charcuterie 23.3% 20.0% 12.1% Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks 10.4% Chilled Fish and Seafood 7.2% Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads 5.6% Fresh Desserts 5.1% Salads 4.7% Eggs 3.9% Fresh Vegetables 2.7% Chilled Juices 1.7% Cream 1.2% Fresh Fruit 1.1% Tofu / Soya 0.5% Milk 0.4% KEY TRENDS Q has been a better quarter than Q for the chilled and fresh market which is more dynamic than total fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) with value at +0.7% versus 0% respectively and volume at +0.3% versus -0.1%. While the chilled and fresh market has been impacted more significantly by price deflation than FMCG, it is increasing in value due to consumers trading up; they are selecting more expensive products. Price deflation has played a bigger role in chilled and fresh than for total FMCG on important chilled categories. However in the cheese and charcuterie categories we have seen price increases. In this latest quarter, several markets have grown less than they have in the past, such as cheese and charcuterie. Some of this trend can be explained by poor temperatures, compared Q Chilled Dips and Sauces 0.2% 7

8 Charcuterie Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Chilled Fish and Seafood France TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES ,2-0,1 Milk Chilled Fish and Seafood 50,3-0,5 Fresh Vegetables Tofu / Soya 22,1-4,5 Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Salads 13,4-7,8 Charcuterie 11,1-69,2 Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks CATEGORY INSIGHTS TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION Value sales ( ) and % change versus a year ago Charcuterie is no longer the primary contributor to the chilled and fresh category s performance in France as it is now in slight decline (-0.1%). Growth remains strong in ready meals which is up 4.6% in value sales for Q versus 0.7% for the total chilled and fresh market. Ready meals have benefited by an increase in range size Yogurts, dairy desserts and drinks has experienced a major decline in value sales due to range size reductions which have not been compensated by promotional gains , ,6-2,8-2.9 Products with milk are not performing as well due to milk bashing. This is currently taking place due to a health recommendation to reduce the daily consumption of milk. % vs. YA has had less growth than in previous periods due to the decline in pâte molles (camemberts) which has been impacted by changes in consumer behaviour (less consumption during meals and more in the snacking moment). Goats cheese is the winner in the cheese category with greater promotion and increased consumer demand. 8

9 Germany CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR Charcuterie Chilled Juices Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Eggs Fresh Desserts Salads Cream SHARE OF CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE FOR THE YEAR Charcuterie 23.0% 21.3% Chilled Juices 16.5% Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks 8.5% Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads 6.9% 6.2% Eggs 3.89% Fresh Desserts 3.7% Salads 3.5% Cream 2.9% Milk 2.8% Chilled Fish and Seafood 0.8% Tofu / Soya 0.07% KEY TRENDS In Germany chilled and fresh recorded a value growth of 0.6%, due to an increase in non promotional sales ( million euros). Discounters contribute more than 48% value share in the category. The fastest growing retailer being Markant (+11.4%) with an increase of +1.5 percentage points. Charcuterie contributes more than 23% of the value growth mainly due to an increase in promotion sales (+42.9 million euros). Margarine, butter, fats and spreads declined in value sales ( million euros), driven by a major decline in butter (-63.6 million euros). Non promoted sales accounted for more than 83% of total sales, which experienced a growth by 0.4 percentage points, whereas promoted sales declined by 0.4 percentage points. Chilled Dips and Sauces 0.0% 9

10 Charcuterie Chilled Juices Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Germany TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES Chilled Juices 170,4-19,4 Milk 137,1-30,4 Charcuterie Eggs 128,1-79,7 Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks 55,9-96,2 Cream Salads 39,1-132,3 Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION Value sales ( ) and % change versus a year ago , ,1 3,0 1,9 % vs. YA CATEGORY INSIGHTS For chilled juices, private label contributes more than 45% value share (+0.1 percentage points). On the other hand for margarine, butter, fats & spreads, private label has more than 40% value share and experienced a decline of -0.7 percentage points. Chilled juices was the highest performing category in the market due to increases in price/volume and also as a result of rises in non promoted sales ( million euros). The chilled juice category has grown in hypermarkets with million euros due to an increase in promotional sales (11.7%). Margarine, butter, fats & spreads was the lowest performing category in the market due to a decrease in price/volume (-0.13 euros), volume sales and non promoted sales also declined by 12.0 million euros and by million euros respectively. In discounters, non promoted sales have declined by 73.0 million euros for this category along with a fall in price /volume, however promotion based sales increased by 9.4 million euros. 10

11 Italy CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR Charcuterie Fresh Vegetables Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Fresh Fruit Milk Eggs Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Fresh Desserts SHARE OF CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE FOR THE YEAR 23.1% Charcuterie 15.1% Fresh Vegetables 14.9% 10.7% Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks 9.6% Fresh Fruit 8.6% Milk 6.1% Eggs 4.8% Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads 2.7% Fresh Desserts 2.6% Chilled Dips and Sauces 1.1% Cream 0.5% Chilled Juices 0.3% KEY TRENDS In H FMCG value sales were flat compared to the prior year, while volume sales were down. In chilled and fresh products, both value and volume performances were positive (+1.2% and +0.7%); these performances are driven by a rise in promotion volumes and by an increase of average number of products (+4.9% and +6.2% respectively). Among the most important categories in the market, vegetables and charcuterie are experiencing positive growth (+8.3% and +4.1% respectively) meanwhile, cheese and yogurt are seeing negative value trends (-1.7%, and -0.2% respectively). Fresh meat, ready meals and fresh drinks are enjoying significant increases in both volume and value (in particular fresh meat). The strong fresh meat performance has been driven by the shift of some products from random weight to fixed weight and by an increase of promotional pressure; and for ready meals a good performance has been influenced by the increase of the average number of products. Fresh drinks positive performances is due to an increased number of products and of promotion pressure. The decline of functional yogurts has slowed, impacting the overall market. Emerging segments of Greek, bio and soya yogurt performed extremely well. 11

12 Charcuterie Fresh Vegetables Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Italy TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES ,2-0,9 Cream Fresh Vegetables 146,9-23,9 Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Fresh Fruit 135,1-26,9 Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Charcuterie 55,1-48,5 Chilled Juices 5,3-49,4 Milk TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION Value sales ( ) and % change versus a year ago CATEGORY INSIGHTS Deflation is taking hold across a number of categories in FMCG, but fresh and chilled products have seen an average increase in inflation. In the chilled and fresh markets, prices were higher versus a year ago (+0.8%), driven primarily by fresh drinks, fixed weight fresh fruit and ready meals (up +11.8%, 2.8% and +1.2% respectively) ,4 2, ,8 Private label has achieved a very high share of chilled and fresh value sales (24.5%, versus a FMCG average of 21.6%), and share is increasing (+4.4%) considering that in 2015 the share was flat. Fresh private label promotional pressure is increasing and it is lower than the category average (19.0% versus 21.5%). A slight reduction in promotional prices has impacted negatively on uplifts (an uplift of -8.7% compared to a year ago). % vs. YA The categories with the highest promotional activity are cheese, fresh pasta, yogurt, fresh meat and charcuterie. In each of these categories about 30% of volume is sold on deal and in some of these categories promotional effectiveness has slipped versus last year (for fresh meat, charcuterie and yogurt). 12

13 Euros, in millones The Netherlands CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR Charcuterie Fresh Vegetables Fresh Fruit Fresh Desserts Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Milk Chilled Fish and Seafood SHARE OF CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE FOR THE YEAR Charcuterie 26.1% Fresh Vegetables 16.2% Fresh Fruit 12.8% 11.9% Fresh Desserts 7.8% Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads 3.6% Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks 3.6% 3.4% Milk 3.4% Chilled Fish and Seafood 3.3% Salads 2.9% Eggs 2.4% Chilled Juices 1.7% Cream 0.6% Chilled Dips and Sauces 0.3% KEY TRENDS There is solid growth on the horizon for the Dutch economy. Consumer trust and domestic demand are on the rise. Total supermarket sales over the first half year of 2016 are higher compared to the prior year (+2.6%). The chilled and fresh category is growing faster than total supermarket sales (+3.2% versus +2.6% respectively). Two out of three of the biggest chilled and fresh categories, fresh vegetables and fresh fruit, are experiencing the highest value growth (+5.0% and +9.5% respectively) of this market. The largest category however, charcuterie, is in value sales decline (down 1.6%). Also cheese is experiencing a fall in value compared to the prior year (down 1.1%). Tofu / Soya 0.0% 13

14 Charcuterie Fresh Vegetables Fresh Fruit Fresh Desserts The Netherlands TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES Fresh Fruit 118,2 Fresh Vegetables 82,0 0,0 Tofu / Soya Chilled Fish and Seafood 31,3-0,9 Cream Eggs 25,5-14,5 Salads 20,1-25,3 Milk TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION Value sales ( ) and % change versus a year ago ,6 5,0 9,5 2,4-1,1 CATEGORY INSIGHTS The value growth in the fresh vegetables and fresh fruit segment is boosted by convenience solutions. Retailers added new on-the-go variations to the assortment, capitalising on the growing health food and fresh trends by offering customers a more convenient alternative. The growth in fresh fruit sales was mainly driven by increased sales in soft fruit (blueberries and grapes). Meat shows a decline because consumers in general are eating less meat than before. In contrast, poultry and vegetarian meals, which are perceived to be healthier, are experiencing good growth. Milk s sales decline is predominantly due to deflationary prices. % vs. YA 14

15 Spain CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR Charcuterie Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Fresh Desserts Eggs Chilled Fish and Seafood Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads Chilled Dips and Sauces Cream SHARE OF CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE FOR THE YEAR Charcuterie 30.7% Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks 21.3% 17.5% 8.5% Fresh Desserts 5.9% Eggs 5.7% Chilled Fish and Seafood 4.2% Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads 2.2% Chilled Dips and Sauces 1.7% Cream 1.5% Milk 0.5% Salads 0.5% KEY TRENDS Chilled and fresh food continued to grow in the first half of the year by 0.9%, driven by the increase in the average price paid by households. While the figures for value sales show positive market growth, volume sales remained negative by falling 0.02% versus a year ago. One of the main causes of this evolution is the transfer of sales that is being produced from the specialist channel to the larger retailer channels (hypermarkets, supermarkets and discount stores). The consumer visits these stores where s/he can make the whole purchase, choosing from a greater fresh product (packaged or prepared) assortment, with a price index that is superior compared to unprocessed products. Figures show uneven growth by categories. The categories that are driving the market the most are cheese (+2.2%) followed by ready meals (+4.9%). 15

16 Charcuterie Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Fresh Desserts Spain TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES ,8 35,2 Charcuterie 25,7 Chilled Fish and Seafood 25,3-0,6 Milk Eggs 16,3-2,6 Margarine, Butter, Fats & Spreads TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION Value sales ( ) and % change versus a year ago ,4 4,9 2, ,9 2,6 CATEGORY INSIGHTS Charcuterie has continued to enjoy value growth, driven by the national brands. As brands grow, private label charcuterie has experienced declines versus last year. Almost all segments of the yogurt category have struggled to drive growth, except for liquid yogurt. The cheese category, on the other hand, has continued to grow, predominantly due to national brands. Ready meals have consolidated the positive trend generated two years ago. Almost all segments have contributed to this growth. In contrast to the general chilled and fresh trend, solid fats sales continue to decline, driven by margarine sales decreasing. % vs. YA 16

17 The United Kingdom CATEGORY VALUE SALES IN THE LAST YEAR Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Fresh Desserts Cream Chilled Juices Chilled Dips and Sauces KEY TRENDS SHARE OF CHILLED AND FRESH VALUE FOR THE YEAR 30.1% Chilled Juices 23.5% Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks 17.4% 13.6% Fresh Desserts 10.0% Chilled Dips and Sauces 4.5% Cream 1.0% UK sales continue to struggle with value sales at -3.7% compared to a year ago and down on the previous quarter. There are signs of recovery however with commodity milk prices for example beginning to rise once more although increases have yet to reach the retailers and shoppers. Increased competition between retailers and discounters is lowering prices. For example in dairy, average prices are down 2.3%, a mixture of lower base prices as retailers price match each other, and deeper deals, with the average discount up from 24% to 26% (52w/e June 2016). For increased cost efficiencies all of the major multiple retailers have been reducing their range sizes in store, with the average range size for food and drink reduced by 4%, and dairy seeing on average -5% lines listed in store compared to a year ago. 17

18 Chilled Juices Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks Fresh Desserts The United Kingdom TOP WINNERS: VALUE SALES 0 10 TOP LOSERS: VALUE SALES Chilled Dips and Sauces 11,5-24,7 Fresh Desserts - 46,4-92,2 Chilled Juices - 102,0-112,1 Yogurts, Dairy Desserts & Drinks TOP 5 CATEGORIES: EVOLUTION Value sales ( ) and % change versus a year ago ,4-3,5-4,0-6,3-2,5 % vs. YA CATEGORY INSIGHTS and chilled juices jointly represent over 50% of chilled and fresh sales, however all of these (with the exception of chilled dips and sauces) are in 52w/e decline, with yogurts, dairy desserts and drinks as well as cheese, the biggest contributors. Retailers in the UK have greatly reduced their use of multi-buy promotions, focusing instead on TPRs (temporary price reductions). Yogurts which have always previously been heavily reliant on long-term multi-buys in stores are now struggling to drive volume. In the latest quarter the percentage of volume sold on multi-buy deals was down by -15% compared to a year ago. s value decline is driven by lower prices (4.0%), with volume currently up slightly. A greater share of volume is going through bigger packs a trend encouraged by retailers, increasing their focus on packs larger than 350g. 18

19 Final Notes Notes on category definitions for countries Due to the diverse products found in individual countries across this market it was necessary to consolidate the available data into the categories in this report. In some cases it wasn t always possible to align products across all 6 countries hence the need to highlight any anomalies in the report. These exceptions are listed below: Eggs The UK data in this report does not include this category. Margarine, butter, fats and spreads The UK data in this report does not include fats in this category. The Spain data in this report does not include fats in this category. Tofu/soya The UK data in this report does not include this category. The Spain data in this report does not include this category. Chilled fish and seafood The UK data in this report does not include this category. The Italy data in this report does not include this category. Charcuterie The UK data in this report does not include this category. Fresh vegetables The UK data in this report does not include this category. The Spain data in this report does not include this category. The Germany data in this report does not include this category. Fresh fruit The UK data in this report does not include this category. The Spain data in this report does not include this category. The Germany data in this report does not include this category. 19

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