The Misjudgment of Risk due to Inattention

Transcription

1 The Misjudgment of Risk due to Inattention Human, Cultural & System Factors: Why does it Happen, What Can be done about it? April 26, 2018 Moin Rahman Strategic Resources

2 Topics Causes of Inattention Human Factors Cultural / Social Factors Mitigation of Inattention Socio-technical Systems Factors (Human + Technology + Culture) 2

3 History Attention & Effort Required to Drive a Ford Model-T (1908) 1. Turn on the fuel line, a petcock on the right floor of the front compartment, allowing gasoline to gravity-flow from the tengallon tank mounted under the front seat to the carburetor. 2. Engage the hand brake by pulling the lever floor-mounted on the left side of the driver's seat to the rear, an arc of about 45 degrees, which also puts the planetary gears in neutral. 3. Turn on the ignition key on the dashboard. 4. Prime the carburetor to a rich startup mixture by pulling out the choke, a knob on the dashboard. 5. Move the throttle lever on the right side of the steering column down about four or five notches. 6. Raise the spark lever on the left of the column to the top to retard the spark. 7. With your right heel, press the electric starter button in the center of the floorboard close to the seat base. 8. With the engine running smoothly, advance the spark by pulling it down two or three notches. 9. Push the brake lever halfway forward to prepare to go either forward or reverse. 10.To go forward, push the brake lever all the way toward the front of the car while pressing the left pedal all the way in, engaging low, and advance the throttle another few notches. 11.With the car moving forward at least 10 mph in low, release the left pedal to shift into high. Adjust throttle as required for desired road speed. 12.To back up, instead of the left pedal, push the center pedal in, engaging reverse. 13.For highway travel, which for a T means mph - definitely not expressway traffic - advance (pull down) both spark and throttle. 3

4 History 4

5 History 5

6 History Attention & Effort Required to Drive a Tesla Model X (Today) 6

7 The Attention-Automation Spectrum Model T Model X 7

8 Does Technology Eliminate Error? Technology does not eliminate error, but it changes the nature of errors that are made, and it introduces new kinds of errors. - Capt. Chesley Sullenberger, 8

9 Causes of Inattention The Human & Cultural Factors - Individual - Group 9

10 The Human Factor Yerkes-Dodson Law 10

11 Individual - Human Attributes 1. Dislike Monotony / Desire to be Productive 2. Difficulty in maintaining constant vigilance 3. Fatigue 11

12 Succumbing to Distractions 1. Dislike of Monotony 2. Difficulty in maintaining constant vigilance 3. Fatigue Seminal study in 1997 on Cellphone distractions Meta Study 2018 Cellphone distractions 12

13 Varieties of Inattention Causes & Consequences Stimuation Seeking Low or no value - Social - Non-time sensitive Physical Distraction Visual Distraction Cognitive Distraction Instrumentality Leading Low or some value - Navigation / GPS - Emergency - Revenue / Job Interference Errors Driver performance errors Driver decision errors Critical non-performance errors Recognition Errors Primary Task (Driving) Primary Task (Impaired to Reversal) Disengaging with primary controls Inattention to Primary Task stimuli Mind wandering Loss of vigilance Drowsiness Distraction (secondary technologies, passengers) 13

14 Cultural Attributes 1. Risk Compensation 2.Collective Programming / Collectively held values 14

15 Risk Compensation Booth's rule #2: "the safer skydiving gear becomes, the more chances skydivers will take, in order to keep the fatality rate constant. Peltzman Effect: risk-tolerant driver responds to driver-safety interventions, such as compulsory seat belts, crumple zones, ABS, etc., by driving faster or with varying degrees of inattention to primary task. 15

16 Risk Compensation (Adams, 2012) 16

17 Collectively Held Values "Culture is the collective programming of the human mind that distinguishes the members of one human group from those of another. Culture in this sense is a system of collectively held values."- - Geert Hofstede (Hofstede, 1991) Belief Knowledge Customs Law Policy Behavior 17

18 Collectively Held Values Motor Vehicle Crash Deaths per 100, high-income countries Source: CDC 19

19 Typology of Cultural Biases 20

20 Collectively Held Values Three E s of Road Safety Education Engineering Enforcement USA GDL: Three Step Process - Instructional Permit - Intermediate License - Full License Approved DriverEd Course (30 hours of theory) Learner s permit supervised driving with licensed adult 40 hours of supervised driving w/ 6 hours at night Licensing Requirements Germany 25 to 45 hours of professional driving instruction 12 hours of theory 8 hours of first aid training. 21

21 Collectively Held Values Phone Usage Phone usage has gone up Including, 14 states that have banned handheld phones behind the wheel. Average use time of around 4 minutes. Texting bans May not have reduced Crashes (HLDI, 2009) 22

22 Collectively Held Values Surface Transportation Graphic Courtesy: From 2016 Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview available at NHTSA 23

23 Collectively Held Values Aviation Public demands a higher standard of safety when people voluntarily hand over control of their safety to others (e.g., pilots) 24

24 Mitigation of Inattention System Factors Socio-technical Systems Factors (Human + Technology + Culture 25

25 Error: System Perspective (Adams, 2012) 26

26 Error: System Perspective "Simply put: humans design, manufacture, train, operate, manage and defend the system. Therefore, when the system breaks down, it is of necessity due to human error somewhere. From this perspective and depending upon the level of observation, one hundred per cent of accidents are arguably caused by human error. - ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) Safety Management Manual (doc. 9859, para ) 27

27 Philosophy: Systems Perspective Conventional View (behavioral): Road users are stupid, obedient automatons who are unresponsive to perceived changes in risk and who need protecting, by law, from their own and others stupidity. Alternative model of human behavior: Road users are intelligent, vigilant, and responsive to evidence of safety and danger and, given the right signals and incentives, considerate. 28

28 Philosophy: Systems Perspective Ensemble ( system ) Harm is localized Bounded Controlled Aggregate, not individual Harm People emerge from it Time ( individual ) Irreversible Individual Life Terminated What risks can be reasonably taken? Ruin Person doesn t emerge from it. (Taleb, 2017) 29

29 Principles of Risk Management 1. Risk identification 2. Risk analysis 3. Risk control 4. Risk financing 5. Claims management RISK CONTROL Risk Avoidance: avoid the risk Risk Prevention: minimize the frequency Risk Reduction: Reduce the loss 30

30 Risk Thermostat 31

31 Attention to Inattention: Systems Approach Mitigation by Design (Human, Cultural, Technology) Human Cultural Technology RISK CONTROL Risk Avoidance: avoid the risk Risk Prevention: minimize the frequency Risk Reduction: Reduce the loss Education Risk Perception Right Rewards Passive & active safety systems Policy Public opinion Law / Enforcement 32

32 Thank you. Moin Rahman Strategic Resources

33 Additional Slides (if needed ) 34

34 Pointing and Calling: Shisa kanko Japanese Safety Standard at Railway Companies 35

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36 Typology of Cultural Biases 37

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