Emanuel Maintains Double-Digit Lead

Transcription

1 Contact: Tom Swiss (773) March 29, 2015 Emanuel Maintains Double-Digit Lead Garcia s TV ads might be too late CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry conducted two polls for the Chicago Mayoral runoff contest. A 1-question poll with 1,101 respondents was run on Friday, March 27, 2015 without undecided as an option. The usual weekly 1-question poll was conducted on Saturday, March 28, 2015 with 904 respondents. Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters. 3/28/2015, n= 904 Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Undecided % Margin of Error +/- 3.33% at 95% Confidence Interval 3/27/2015, n= 1,101 (without undecided ) Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Margin of Error +/- 3.01% at 95% Confidence Interval ANALYSIS Emanuel has slowly been pulling away from Garcia since the Municipal Elections. The near dead heat has opened up to a double-digit advantage. The Emanuel campaign powerfully used the How will he pay for it? question to define Garcia as lacking a financial plan in many voter s minds. This is a good example of the political rule that negative TV ads must be answered with TV ads. Garcia finally is getting on TV, but after much damage was caused by the Emanuel attack ads. Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 1

2 Garcia will need his offer to eliminate red-light cameras or new messages to resonate with voters to make the race more competitive. Garcia does have the advantage that Hispanic voters under-poll. The Garcia campaign claims they are under-represented by points, however 8 of the 9 wards with fewer early voters are Hispanic majority wards. METHODOLOGY Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency. Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For the Chicago Mayoral Runoff election, likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections. PREVIOUS POLLS 3/21/2015, n= 951 Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Undecided % Margin of Error +/- 3.24% at 95% Confidence Interval 3/20/2015, n= 877 (without undecided ) Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Margin of Error +/- 3.38% at 95% Confidence Interval Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 2

3 3/14/2015, n= 957 Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Undecided % Margin of Error +/- 3.23% at 95% Confidence Interval 3/13/2015, n= 920 (without undecided ) Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Margin of Error +/- 3.30% at 95% Confidence Interval 3/7/2015, n= 1,020 Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Undecided % Margin of Error +/- 3.13% at 95% Confidence Interval 2/28/2015 n= 979 Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Undecided % Margin of Error +/- 3.20% at 95% Confidence Interval 2/25/2015 n= 1,058 Rahm Emanuel % Jesus Chuy Garcia % Undecided % Margin of Error +/- 3.07% at 95% Confidence Interval Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 3

4 CROSSTABS 3/28/2015 Respondents by Gender Male % Female % Respondents by Age Age % Age % Age % Age 65 plus % 1 Count Count 10 2 Count Count 26 3 Count Count 21 4 Count Count 19 5 Count Count 9 6 Count Count 6 7 Count Count 18 8 Count Count 12 9 Count Count Count 5 35 Count Count 9 36 Count 8 12 Count Count Count Count Count 9 39 Count Count 8 40 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 17 Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 4

5 19 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 2 47 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 13 3/27/2015 Respondents by Gender Male % Female % Respondents by Age Age % Age % Age % Age 65 plus % 1 Count Count 17 2 Count Count 29 3 Count Count 31 4 Count Count 13 5 Count Count 19 6 Count Count 12 7 Count Count 25 8 Count Count 19 9 Count Count 27 Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 5

6 10 Count Count Count Count Count 9 37 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 20 3/21/2015 Respondents by Gender Male % Female % Respondents by Age Age % Age % Age % Age 65 plus % 1 Count Count 11 2 Count Count 36 Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 6

7 3 Count Count 17 4 Count Count 24 5 Count Count 14 6 Count Count 16 7 Count Count 22 8 Count Count 13 9 Count Count Count 8 35 Count Count Count 9 12 Count 9 37 Count Count Count Count 9 39 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 8 47 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 23 3/20/2015 Respondents by Gender Male % Female % Respondents by Age Age % Age % Age % Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 7

8 Age 65 plus % 1 Count Count 14 2 Count Count 25 3 Count Count 14 4 Count Count 18 5 Count Count 10 6 Count Count 8 7 Count Count 20 8 Count Count 17 9 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 6 40 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 17 3/14/2015 Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 8

9 Respondents by Gender Male % Female % Respondents by Age Age % Age % Age % Age 65 plus % 1 Count Count 10 2 Count Count 22 3 Count Count 26 4 Count Count 19 5 Count Count 10 6 Count Count 13 7 Count Count 27 8 Count Count 15 9 Count Count Count 8 35 Count Count Count 7 12 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 22 Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page 9

10 23 Count Count Count Count Count 5 50 Count 20 3/13/2015 Respondents by Gender Male % Female % Respondents by Age Age % Age % Age % Age 65 plus % 1 Count Count 12 2 Count Count 19 3 Count Count 24 4 Count Count 33 5 Count Count 14 6 Count Count 11 7 Count Count 16 8 Count Count 12 9 Count Count Count Count Count Count 7 12 Count 6 37 Count Count Count 9 14 Count 8 39 Count Count 7 40 Count 19 Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page

11 16 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 16 3/7/2015 Respondents by Gender Male % Female % Respondents by Age Age % Age % Age % Age 65 plus % 1 Count Count 19 2 Count Count 26 3 Count Count 31 4 Count Count 19 5 Count Count 4 6 Count Count 6 Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page

12 7 Count Count 17 8 Count Count 21 9 Count Count Count 9 35 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 3 47 Count Count Count Count Count Count 9 50 Count 14 2/28/2015 Respondents by Gender Male % Female % Respondents by Age Age % Age % Age % Age 65 plus % Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page

13 1 Count Count 12 2 Count Count 26 3 Count Count 24 4 Count Count 22 5 Count Count 11 6 Count Count 9 7 Count Count 20 8 Count Count 17 9 Count Count Count Count Count Count 8 12 Count 8 37 Count Count 9 38 Count Count Count Count 9 40 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 13 2/25/2015 Respondents by Gender Male % Female % Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page

14 Respondents by Age Age % Age % Age % Age 65 plus % *Age for 1 respondent could not be determined. 1 Count Count 14 2 Count Count 19 3 Count Count 31 4 Count Count 27 5 Count Count 17 6 Count Count 11 7 Count Count 17 8 Count Count 13 9 Count Count Count Count 9 11 Count Count Count 6 37 Count Count Count Count Count Count 7 40 Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count Count 12 Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page

15 PREVIOUS MAYORAL POLLS WARD DISTRIBUTIONS (Wards won by Garcia in yellow) 1/17/2015 1/24/2015 1/31/2015 2/7/2015 2/14/2015 2/21/2015 Ward 1 20 Ward 1 13 Ward Count 19 1 Count 9 1 Count 3 Ward 2 15 Ward 2 20 Ward Count 20 2 Count 12 2 Count 12 Ward 3 33 Ward 3 39 Ward Count 28 3 Count 19 3 Count 30 Ward 4 29 Ward 4 30 Ward Count 31 4 Count 23 4 Count 20 Ward 5 30 Ward 5 29 Ward Count 29 5 Count 27 5 Count 27 Ward 6 31 Ward 6 29 Ward Count 26 6 Count 18 6 Count 19 Ward 7 20 Ward 7 22 Ward Count 24 7 Count 17 7 Count 17 Ward 8 23 Ward 8 41 Ward Count 27 8 Count 21 8 Count 25 Ward 9 34 Ward 9 27 Ward Count 20 9 Count 18 9 Count 24 Ward 10 8 Ward 10 7 Ward Count 9 10 Count 7 10 Count 8 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 12 Ward 12 8 Ward Ward Count Count 6 12 Count 10 Ward Ward Ward Count 8 13 Count Count 13 Ward Ward 14 8 Ward Count 9 14 Count 8 14 Count 8 Ward 15 8 Ward Ward Count 6 15 Count 1 15 Count 7 Ward Ward 16 9 Ward Count Count Count 12 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 16 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 11 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 30 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 14 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 12 Ward Ward 22 6 Ward Count 8 22 Count 6 22 Count 10 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 12 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 12 Ward Ward 25 6 Ward Count Count Count 6 Ward Ward 26 9 Ward Count Count 4 26 Count 12 Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page

16 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 25 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 12 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 21 Ward 30 7 Ward Ward Count 6 30 Count Count 9 Ward 31 6 Ward Ward Count 8 31 Count 8 31 Count 8 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 18 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 10 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 18 Ward Ward 35 9 Ward Count Count 5 35 Count 8 Ward Ward 36 6 Ward Count 5 36 Count 8 36 Count 12 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 15 Ward Ward Ward Count Count 9 38 Count 7 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 14 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 17 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 16 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 23 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 10 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 18 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 13 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 12 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 20 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 22 Ward Ward Ward Count Count Count 16 Ward Ward Ward Count Count 8 50 Count 11 *49 th ward was won by Garcia, but was practically a tie Ogden & Fry, LLC W. Fry St. - Chicago (312) Page