HarGroup Management Consultants DRAFT SUB-REGIONAL TRANSIT FEASIBILITY STUDY SURVEY OF COMMUNITY RESIDENTS

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1 Sub-Regional Feasibility Study Survey of Community Residents DRAFT SUB-REGIONAL TRANSIT FEASIBILITY STUDY SURVEY OF COMMUNITY RESIDENTS (BLACK DIAMOND, NANTON, OKOTOKS, & TURNER VALLEY) 2014 HarGroup Management Consultants

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3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION EXISTING TRAVEL PATTERNS Current Travel Patterns between Community and Calgary Current Travel Patterns among Communities POTENTIAL USE OF REGIONAL TRANSIT SERVICE General Likelihood of Using the Regional Transit Service Travel Between Community and Calgary Travel among Communities Expected Patterns of Regional Transit Service Use Use Patterns between Community and Calgary Use Patterns among Communities FARES EXPECTATIONS Fare Pricing Sensitivities Implications of User Categories Likelihood of Purchasing Monthly Pass ESTIMATED RIDERSHIP OF THE REGIONAL TRANSIT SERVICE Assumptions Used to Estimate Ridership Average Daily Ridership Patterns and Estimates Between Communities and Calgary Average Weekly Ridership Patterns and Estimates Between Communities and Calgary Annual Ridership Estimates Between Communities and Calgary Ridership Estimates Among Communities CONCLUDING REMARKS APPENDICES Survey Instrument Respondent Profiles Business and Organization Interview Representatives Business and Organization Interview Discussion Guides Additional Data HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc.

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5 1.0 INTRODUCTION For over a decade, the member municipalities comprising the (CRP) have been working collaboratively to ensure that growth in the Calgary Region occurs in a sustainable manner. Recently the CRP has been investigating the potential development of a regional transit service that would serve the communities surrounding Calgary; in particular, Turner Valley, Black Diamond, Okotoks, and Nanton. To support this initiative, the CRP is conducting a feasibility study to examine opportunities of establishing a regional transit service that would link these communities with Calgary. A component of the study involves gathering information from residents and businesses associated with potential use of a regional transit service. HarGroup Management Consultants was commissioned by CRP to engage residents and businesses about a future regional transit service. The overall purpose of the study was to examine awareness of regional transit concepts, and assess trip needs for the residents of select communities within communities south of Calgary; as well as to investigate factors involved with the implementation of a trial regional transit service among residents. Project objectives that guided the study include: Examine perceptions of regional transit among communities in the region and within a regional context, Identify regional perception of transit culture; what it means to use transit or who it is for (e.g. commuters, socio-economic status, and age) and assess propensity to use transit service among residents Determine what would encourage residents to consider using transit and identify factors that would foster transit use among residents Determine the needs of residents if a regional transit system were implemented in the future Identify potential origins and destinations of regional transit use within service area Assess priority times of travel for transit use within the sub-regional service area Examine pricing and fare expectations for a regional transit service HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc - 2 -

6 Research conducted for the feasibility study involved a telephone survey of residents of Turner Valley, Black Diamond, Okotoks and Nanton, as well as consultation interviews with businesses located in the region. Specifications of the research include: Telephone Survey A questionnaire was designed by HarGroup Management Consultants, in conjunction with CRP representatives. A copy of the survey instrument is presented in Appendix A. A total of 800 residents were randomly selected within the study area to participate in the survey. A sample of this size yields and estimated margin of error of ±3.4% within a 95% confidence interval for the total adult population (18 years of age or older). The estimated margins of error for each community are larger, as presented in Table 1.1. Table 1.1: Telephone Survey Estimated Margins of Error (Estimates calculated within a 95% confidence interval) Specification Turner Valley Black Diamond Okotoks Nanton Entire Sample Population (2011 Federal Census) 1,684 1,866 17,299 1,759 22,608 Sample Size Estimated Margin of Error ±7.7% ±7.8% ±5.2% ±7.7% ±3.4% Demographic information about respondents is presented in Appendix B. The data presented in this report have been weighted to effectively represent the age and gender of the study area population. As such, data showing totals will be influenced by those gathered from Okotoks respondents due to the larger population within that community. The survey was fielded in July and August 2014 Business Interviews Telephone interviews were conducted with five businesses operating in the region. The interviews examined needs of employees of the business. A list of representatives is presented in Appendix C. All of the interviews were conducted with human resources representatives who commented on how a transit service might be used by employees of their organizations. The discussion guide used for the interviews is presented in Appendix D. The interviews were conducted by HarGroup consultants. At the same time as the telephone survey was being conducted, an open-link online questionnaire was available to residents in the region to voice their opinions about the regional transit service. Throughout this report, there are references to comments provided in the open-link online questionnaire. The remainder of this report presents the findings of the telephone survey and business interviews. For telephone survey findings, basic frequencies of question results are presented. Various statistical procedures are used within the analyses to assess significance of contrasting responses or perceptions of respondents. These analyses provide additional insight into the data and allow for a greater degree of certainty in statements of inference. Tables and figures contained within the body of this report are presented with rounded percentages. As such, totals may not sum to %. HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc - 3 -

7 2.0 EXISTING TRAVEL PATTERNS Understanding existing travel patterns between the communities and Calgary among residents provides a foundation for determining how travel might occur when a future regional transit service is developed. As will be shown in this section of the report, it is common for residents to travel to and from Calgary for a variety of reasons and most of this travel is conducted by personal vehicle. To effectively develop, at least in the short term, a regional transit service will need to attract customers that are accustomed to a personal vehicle culture. 2.1 Current Travel Patterns Between Community and Calgary Frequency of Travel Among many residents of the communities examined in the study, travel between their community and Calgary is common and frequent. Data presented in Table 2.1 shows that approximately seven in ten survey respondents travel between their community and Calgary at least once a week and the vast majority travel at least once a month. Frequency Table 2.1: Frequency of Travel between Community and Calgary Turner Valley (n=150) Black Diamond (n=159) % of Responses Okotoks (n=348) Nanton (n=150) Total (n=797) Three or more times a week About once or twice a week At least once every two weeks At least once a month At least every two or three months At least once every six months At least once a year Have not travelled between community and Calgary Total Okotoks respondents are more likely than respondents from the other communities to travel to and from Calgary on a weekly basis (at least once a week) and almost half travel three or more times a week. This pattern is highly influenced by the prevalence of Okotoks respondents traveling to Calgary for work, as will be shown later in this section. It should be noted that a large portion of Okotoks, Turner Valley, and Black Diamond respondents indicated that they have jobs that require them to regularly travel to Calgary (see data in Respondent Profile in Appendix B). However, when taking into account the larger population base of Okotoks compared to the other communities, the vast HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc - 4 -

8 majority of travellers to Calgary for employment (full and part-time) likely originate from Okotoks rather than the other three communities (see additional data in Appendix E). Days of Travel When asked about days of travel, many survey respondents indicated that their travel occurred during weekdays (Monday to Sunday), as presented in Table 2.2). Table 2.2 shows the days that respondents indicated they travel between their community and Calgary. To a lesser extent, travel occurred on weekends (Saturday and Sunday). Travel Days Table 2.2: Current Travel Days Between Community and Calgary Turner Valley % of Respondents Black Diamond Okotoks Nanton Total (n=147) (n=148) (n=349) (n=141) (n=785) Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday It depends Travel among Okotoks respondents was much more likely to occur than among respondents from other communities, especially during weekdays. Again, this may be due to the amount of respondents that work in Calgary. Travel Times Travel times among respondents between their community and Calgary are presented in Table 2.3. For the most part, respondents are more likely to travel between 6:00 am and 3:00 pm to get to Calgary, and between noon and 9:00 pm to travel back to their community. However, further analysis reveals that respondents who have a job that requires them to regularly travel to Calgary were much more likely to travel from their community to Calgary in the early morning, between 6:00 am and 9:00 am, and then back to their own community in the afternoon, between 3:00 pm and 6:00 pm (see Appendix F). As such, further interpretation of the data presented in Table 2.3 is that during weekdays (Monday through Friday) most travel will occur between 6:00 am and 9:00 am and 3:00 pm and 6:00 pm, while on weekends it will occur 9:00 am to 3:00 pm. HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc - 5 -

9 Times of Travel Table 2.3: Times of Travel between Community and Calgary % of Respondents From Community to Calgary From Calgary to Community TV BD OK NT Total TV BD OK NT Total (n=141) (n=148) (n=343) (n=138) (n=781) (n=145) (n=148) (n=341) (n=138) (n=778) Between Between 9:00 am up to noon Between noon up to 3:00 pm Between 3:00 pm up to 6:00 pm Between Between 9:00 pm up to midnight Between midnight up to 3:00 am Between 3:00 am up to 6:00 am It depends In some respects, times of travel among respondents from the various communities was similar. The notable exception was Nanton respondents who were more likely to travel between 9:00 am and noon from their community to Calgary rather than between 6:00 am and 9:00 am, which is likely influenced by having fewer respondents having jobs in Calgary. Purposes of Travel Reasons for why residents travel between their community and Calgary is presented in Figure 2.1. The more commons reasons for travelling to Calgary among all communities include shopping for non-basic need items; visiting friends and relatives; attending theatre, concerts, movies, cultural or sporting events; going to medical appointments, and going out for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Somewhat less common reasons included traveling to and from Calgary for work and to use recreation facilities or participate in recreation activities. In comparing the reasons for travel to Calgary among the communities, Okotoks respondents are more likely than other respondents to travel to Calgary to get to and from work, go out for breakfast, lunch and dinner, and use a recreation facility or participate in recreation activities. Nanton respondents are more likely to shop for basic needs items. Turner Valley respondents are more likely to go to personal appointments and shop for basic needs items. It should be noted that frequency of travel is more likely to be higher for traveling to and from Calgary for work and shopping of basic needs items compared to the other purposes that were examined within the survey. HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc - 6 -

10 Figure 2.1: Purposes for Travel between Community and Calgary HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc - 7 -

11 Further analysis of the data was conducted with those respondents who indicated they travel to and from Calgary for work, mainly due to the frequency of which these respondents travel between their community and Calgary. Observations from this analysis include (see Appendix E for data): All but one respondent (1 out of 376) owned or had access to a personal vehicle; Most (85%) have a job that requires them to travel regularly to Calgary; More likely to be male (66% of male respondents compared to 30% of female); and More likely to be 35 to 64 years of age. Another reason identified by respondents for travel to and from Calgary was going to the Calgary International Airport (see Appendix E). Personal vehicle is the primary method of transportation when traveling between the communities and Calgary, either as a driver or a passenger (Table 2.4). A bit of travel occurs by taxi and commuter bus. In some respects, these findings reveal that travel to Calgary is dependent on having access to a vehicle. Method of Transportation Table 2.4: Methods of Transportation Used to Travel To and From Calgary Method Used Most Often Method Used 2nd Most Often TV BD OK NT Total TV BD OK NT Total (n=147) (n=150) (n=350) (n=141) (n=786) (n=39) (n=37) (n=79) (n=45) (n=184) Personal vehicle/motorcycle (driver) Personal vehicle (passenger / carpool) Commuter bus/handi-bus 0 1 <1 0 < Taxi < Bicycle Other Total HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc - 8 -

12 2.2 Current Travel Patterns Among Communities Frequency of Travel Travel patterns of respondents among the four communities of Turner Valley, Black Diamond, Okotoks, and Nanton varies considerably. Table 2.5 on the next page show the frequency of travel for respondents among these four communities, as well as High River. When taken as a whole, the data suggest that Okotoks is the primary travel node within the study area. Indeed, considerable portions of respondents from Turner Valley, Black Diamond, and Nanton indicated that they travel to and from Okotoks on at least a weekly basis. For Turner Valley and Black Diamond respondents, at least nine in ten stated travel to and from Okotoks on a weekly basis, while about a third of Nanton respondents travel on a weekly basis. There is also considerable travel between Turner Valley and Black Diamond among respondents of these communities in that considerable portions of respondents stated travel at least once a week. Travel to Nanton among Black Diamond, Okotoks, and Turner Valley respondents is much less common. Actually, most respondents of these communities stated that they have not travelled between their communities and Nanton. It should be noted that travel was also examined between the four communities involved in the study and High River to accommodate any future studies that might include this community. In this case, travel is frequent to High River among Nanton respondents. About three-quarters of Nanton respondents stated that they travel to High River on a weekly basis. Travel is much less frequent among Turner Valley, Black Diamond, and Okotoks respondents to High River. Actually, when taken as a whole, the data suggest that High River is much more likely to be travel destination for Nanton residents than Okotoks. Purposes for Travel Reasons for why respondents of Turner Valley, Black Diamond, Okotoks, and Nanton travel between their respective communities are presented in Table 2.6. The more common reasons for travelling among these communities include using a recreation facility or participating in recreation activities, visiting friends and family, going out for breakfast, lunch or dinner, shopping for basic and nonbasic needs items, and going to and from work. The data also infer that Okotoks is a resource centre for respondents of other communities in that they shop for basic and non-basic needs items, and go to medical and personal appointments. HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc - 9 -

13 Frequency Table: 2.5: Frequency of Travel among Other Communities % of Respondents Turner Valley Black Diamond Okotoks High River Nanton BD OK NT Total TV OK NT Total TV BD NT Total TV BD OK NT Total TV BD OK Total (n=150) (n=350) (n=150) (n=650) (n=149) (n=350) (n=150) (n=649) (n=150) (n=150) (n=150) (n=450) (n=150) (n=150) (n=350) (n=150) (n=800) (n=150) (n=150) (n=350) (n=650) Three or more times a week <1 About once or twice a week At least once every two weeks At least once a month At least every two or three months At least once every six months At least once a year Have not travelled between my community and other community Total HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

14 Reasons Table 2.6: Purposes for Travel Among Other Communities % of Respondents Turner Valley Black Diamond Okotoks High River Nanton BD OK NT Total TV OK NT Total TV BD NT Total TV BD OK NT Total TV BD OK Total (n=149) (n=350) (n=142) (n=642) (n=147) (n=259) (n=69) (n=475) (n=147) (n=149) (n=143) (n=439) (n=114) (n=130) (n=293) (n=145) (n=682) (n=42) (n=58) (n=144) (n=245) To use a recreation facility or participate in recreation activities To visit friends or relatives To go out to breakfast, lunch or dinner Shop for non-basic needs (gifts/hardware items/sports goods/etc.) To shop for basic needs items such as groceries, toiletries, etc To get to and from work (for work purposes) To go to medical appointments such as doctors, dentists or physiotherapist 1 < To attend a theatre, concert, movie, cultural or sporting events To go to personal appointments for banking, real estate, insurance, etc <1 <1 Sightseeing; pleasure trip <1 < To get a personal vehicle fixed at a garage or autobody shop 1 < < < To go out to a lounge, bar or pub To go to the hospital 0 <1 0 < <1 To get gas for my vehicle/just passing through <1 2 3 < < To attend a religious service < <1 <1 2 1 <1 1 <1 2 1 <1 <1 To go to a coffee/ice cream shop, bakery, candy store, etc. 1 <1 1 < To do volunteer work 0 <1 0 < < To visit a museum, art gallery, library, etc To go to a recycling facility/bottle depot 17 < To get to and from school, child care, etc < Other Multiple response, number of responses (249) (402) (154) (806) (405) (377) (90) (872) (463) (410) (342) (1215) (163) (196) (443) (360) (1162) (49) (73) (185) (308) HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

15 3.0 POTENTIAL USE OF REGIONAL TRANSIT SERVICE The regional transit systems is expected to become an important mode of transportation for many residents of Turner Valley, Black Diamond, Okotoks and Nanton, particularly for travel between their community and Calgary. In the previous section of this report, current methods and patterns of travel were examined and it was apparent that personal vehicle was the primary method of transportation for respondents. This section of the report examines needs and expectations for a new regional transit service among survey respondents. 3.1 General Likelihood of Using the Regional Transit Service A set of questions examined overall interest of respondents to consider using a regional transit service, either between their community and Calgary or among the communities Travel between Community and Calgary To assess potential use of a regional transit service to Calgary, survey respondents were asked about the likelihood to use the service. It is important to note that this question was asked before any other questions about how they might use the service or how much fares might cost. In other words, the question was intended to measure the overall appeal of a new regional transit service among residents. Figure 3.1 reveals that, among all communities, almost six in ten respondents indicated that they were very, quite or somewhat likely to use a new regional transit service. From these results, it can be suggested that residents of these communities are receptive to using a regional transit service to travel between their communities and Calgary. Further, about a quarter of respondents expressed strong interest in a new regional transit service by stating they were very likely to use it. % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Figure 3.1: General Likelihood of Using Regional Transit Service between Community and Calgary 16% 26% 27% 17% 8% 11% 19% 18% 22% 22% 22% 17% 26% 27% 23% Turner Valley (n=146) Black Diamond (n=145) Okotoks (n=346) Nanton (n=150) 17% 26% 11% 11% 22% 22% 12% 17% 38% 24% Total (n=787) Very likely Quite likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

16 Further, respondents from Black Diamond and Okotoks were significantly more likely to state likelihood of use of a regional transit service, especially when considering the responses of very likely. It is also worth noting that younger adults (e.g. 18 to 34 years) were significantly more likely to use a regional transit service between their community and Calgary than older adults (35+ years). Indeed, about four in ten respondents aged 18 to 34 years indicated that they would be very likely to use a regional transit service. % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Figure 3.2: Likelihood of Using Regional Transit Service between Community and Calgary among Age Groups 41% 8% 17% 22% 12% 18 to 34 (n=225) 22% 12% 24% 28% 14% 28% 35 to 64 (n=431) 16% 15% 27% 11% 22% 19% 17% 22% 23% 65+ (n=89) Total (n=745) Very likely Quite likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely Travel among Communities Survey respondents were also asked about the likelihood that they would use the service to travel between their community and the other communities south of Calgary (Turner Valley, Black Diamond, Okotoks, High River and Nanton). Figure 3.3 reveals that Turner Valley, Black Diamond, and Nanton respondents are more likely to use the regional transit service to travel to Okotoks than to travel to the other communities. Approximately half of respondents from Turner Valley, Black Diamond, and Nanton indicated they would be very, quite, or somewhat likely to use the service to travel to Okotoks and about one in five stated very likely. Following the inferences presented in the previous section, these data suggest that Okotoks represents a service centre or hub in the region and many respondents would consider using the regional transit service to access this community. Even so, many of the Nanton respondents indicated that they would travel on a regional transit service if it went to High River, and some Turner Valley and Black Diamond respondents would travel between these communities if the service was available. HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

17 BD (n=150) OK (n=346) NT (n=150) Total (n=787) TV (n=148) OK (n=346) NT (n=150) Total (n=787) TV (n=148) BD (n=150) NT (n=150) Total (n=787) TV (n=148) BD (n=150) OK (n=346) NT (n=150) Total (n=787) TV (n=148) BD (n=150) OK (n=346) Total (n=787) DRAFT: For Discussion Only Figure 3.3: General Likelihood of Using Regional Transit Service Among Communities % 80% 14% 5% 12% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 11% 13% 11% 15% 13% 15% 12% 7% 16% 3% 4% 3% 4% 9% 17% 3% 4% 12% 15% 9% 16% 20% 21% 14% 11% 17% 13% 19% 13% 7% 5% 5% 9% 11% 7% 21% 5% 18% 20% 13% 5% 3% 2% 5% 4% 18% 13% 6% 0% 7% 25% 1% 1% 1% 7% 7% 15% 16% Very likely 60% 15% 12% 16% 28% 18% 20% 17% 22% 14% 19% 15% Quite likely Somewhat likely 40% 55% 69% 72% 69% 54% 68% 66% 67% 9% 12% 9% 11% 57% 59% 9% 57% 78% 62% 76% 75% Not very likely Not at all likely 20% 40% 42% 37% 44% 39% 27% 0% Turner Valley Black Diamond Okotoks High River Nanton HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

18 3.2 Expected Patterns of Regional Transit Service Use To gain insight into potential use of the regional transit service, respondents were asked about types, frequency, days, and times of trips that they might take. These questions were asked of all respondents to ensure an accurate assessment could be developed about potential use of the regional transit service Use Patterns between Community and Calgary Purpose of Trips In the previous section of this report, respondents were asked about reasons for travel between their communities and Calgary. Some of the most common reasons including shopping for non-basic needs items; visting friends and relatives; attending theatre, concerts, movies, cultural or sporting events; going to medical appointments; going out to eat; and getting to and from work. It is expected that some of these reasons would result in frequent travel between communities and Calgary, such as getting to and from work or shopping for for non-basic needs items, while others would be occassional travel such as attending theatre, concerts, movies, cultural or sporting events and going to medical appointments. As well, some would likely occur in the evening, like attending theatre, concerts, movies, cultural and sporting events, while other during the day, such as getting to and from work. Figure 3.4 on the next page reveals anticipated types of trips when using the regional transit service. In this case, the most common type of trip among respondents, when considering very, quite, and somewhat likely, was to attend theatre, concert, movie, cultural or sporting events. This reason was followed distantly by going to a lounge, bar or pub; to go to medical appointments; and using recreation facilities or participating in recreation activities. All of these activities would likely result in occasional travel among respondents when using a regional transit service. These were followed by more frequent or regular use of a regional transit service such as getting to and from work and shopping for non-basic needs items. Alternatively, when considering the responses of very likely, which might be an indication of keen or avid interest in using the regional transit service, getting to and from work surfaces as the most common reason. Indeed, approximately one in five respondents stated that they would be very likely to use the regional transit service to get to and from work between their communities and Calgary. This finding is relevant in that these respondents are more likely to use the rgional transit service on a frequent or regular basis compared to the other types of trips that were examined in the survey. In some respects, these findings suggest that for many respondents the regional transit service would be viewed as an HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

19 To shop for basic needs items such as groceries, toiletries, etc. To go to personal appointments for banking, real estate, insurance, etc. To get a personal vehicle fixed at a garage or autobody shop To go out for breakfast, lunch or dinner To visit friends and relatives To shop for nonbasic needs items such as gifts, hardware items, sports goods, household items, etc. To get to and from work (for work purposes) To use a recreation facility or participate in recreation activities like going skating, skiing, going for a hike, etc. To go to medical appointments such as doctors, dentists or physiotherapists To go out to a lounge, bar or pub To attend a theatre, concert, movie or cultural event DRAFT: For Discussion Only alternative method of transportation to taking their own vehicles to get to and from work, especially for those who reside in Okotoks. Figure 3.4: Expected Purpose for Regional Transit Service Use between Community and Calgary Turner Valley (n=148) Black Diamond (n=149) Okotoks (n=347) Nanton (n=149) Total (n=796) Turner Valley (n=148) Black Diamond (n=148) Okotoks (n=346) Nanton (n=150) Total (n=796) Turner Valley (n=149) Black Diamond (n=147) Okotoks (n=347) Nanton (n=150) Total (n=796) Turner Valley (n=149) Black Diamond (n=149) Okotoks (n=348) Nanton (n=150) Total (n=796) Turner Valley (n=147) Black Diamond (n=145) Okotoks (n=342) Nanton (n=149) Total (n=796) Turner Valley (n=148) Black Diamond (n=149) Okotoks (n=349) Nanton (n=150) Total (n=796) Turner Valley (n=150) Black Diamond (n=149) Okotoks (n=347) Nanton (n=150) Total (n=796) Turner Valley (n=150) Black Diamond (n=147) Okotoks (n=348) Nanton (n=150) Total (n=796) Turner Valley (n=149) Black Diamond (n=149) Okotoks (n=347) Nanton (n=150) Total (n=796) Turner Valley (n=149) Black Diamond (n=147) Okotoks (n=348) Nanton (n=150) Total (n=796) Turner Valley (n=149) Black Diamond (n=149) Okotoks (n=348) Nanton (n=150) Total (n=796) 7% 13% 18% 12% 4% 17% 8% 14% 15% 7% 8% 14% 9% 16% 10% 15% 11% 8% 14% 21% 19% 18% 5% 3% 16% 20% 11% 3% 20% 13% 9% 6% 24% 16% 4% 11% 17% 8% 6% 11% 5% 8% 23% 19% 16% 7% 17% 8% 22% 4% 9% 9% 8% 8% 10% 6% 8% 7% 21% 8% 5% 12% 17% 8% 10% 3% 9% 4% 10% 10% 19% 15% 21% 9% 7% 7% 12% 11% 3% 12% 6% 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 6% 10% 11% 5% 7% 9% 7% 4% 17% 24% 7% 33% 15% 17% 14% 15% 17% 12% 7% 16% 7% 21% 9% 15% 20% 7% 13% 7% 11% 4% 7% 4% 15% 16% 24% 16% 14% 16% 14% 7% 16% 15% 18% 16% 20% 23% 19% 17% 25% 20% 12% 21% 15% 21% 22% 17% 21% 27% 21% 20% 14% 12% 5% 5% 3% 11% 7% 5% 12% 6% 5% 11% 3% 5% 8% 4% 3% 5% 15% 17% 5% 4% 3% 13% 11% 22% 8% 11% 21% 20% 3% 5% 1% 1% 6% 11% 7% 19% 21% 7% 28% 3% 4% 15% 28% 2% 1% 8% 28% 16% 9% 29% 6% 14% 29% 7% 59% 11% 11% 11% 12% 18% 16% 10% 15% 13% 21% 19% 20% 19% 18% 20% 17% 15% 36% 37% 32% 43% 33% 53% 61% 46% 47% 42% 40% 45% 35% 55% 44% 52% 46% 49% 47% 68% 61% 52% 71% 54% 52% 54% 44% 46% 45% 48% 52% 48% 45% 48% 51% 54% 49% 60% 49% 48% 60% 58% 50% 57% 57% 56% 61% 54% 60% 58% 67% 63% 62% 50% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% % Very likely Quite likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

20 Further analysis was conducted with the data to assess propensity of use of the regional transit service for various types of trips based on their initial reaction to the regional transit service (general likelihood of use as presented in Figure 3.1). For the most part, this analysis supports the inference above that respondents who state very likely have keen or avid interest in the regional transit service. As shown in Table 4.1, respondents who indicated a higher propensity to use the transit services (very or quite likely to use of transit generally) were much more likely to state use to various type of trips (whether stating very, quite, or somewhat likely, or simply very likely to a trip type). In other words, those respondents who stated very likely to the general likelihood question are expected to have higher resolve to using the regional transit service compared to those who stated other responses. Response to General Likelihood of Using Regional Transit Service Table 3.1: Average Number of Trips (Out of Potentially 11) Average Number of Trip Types Stating Very, Quite or Somewhat Likely to Trip Types Stating Very Likely to Trip Types Mean Median Mean Median Very likely (n=205) Quite likely (n=86) Somewhat likely (n=174) Not very likely (n=138) Not at all likely (n=189) Categories of Users Following the above concept, detailed analysis was conducted to assess the types of users that might use the regional travel service, based on their responses to the types of trips. In the analysis, four primary types of users were identified, which are presented in Table 3.2 on the next page. One group is identified as being regular users who take the regional transit service between their communities and Calgary to get to and from work. Occassional users might use the regional transit service for a variety of reasons, but mainly in terms of accessing entertainment/recreation in Calgary or to go shopping and attend appointments. Infrequent users are likely to use the regional transit service is no other means of transportation is available to them. Finally, there is a group of respondents who have been identified as principally non-users. Generally, this last group is not likely to use the regional transit service. HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

21 Table 3.2: Categories of Users of the Regional Transit Service Categories of Users (Typical Response to Trip Types) Infrequent, If No Other Option Available (n=195) Regular, Occasional Workers Users Non-Users Types of Trips (n=167) (n=103) (n=308) To get to and from work Very Somewhat Not At All Not At All To attend a theatre, concert, movie, cultural or sporting event Somewhat Very Somewhat Not Very To go out to a lounge, bar or pub Somewhat Quite Not Very Not At All To use a recreation facility or participate in recreation activities Somewhat Quite Not Very Not At All To shop for non-basic needs items Not Very Quite Somewhat Not At All To go to medical appointments Not Very Quite Somewhat Not At All To go out to breakfast, lunch or dinner Not Very Quite Not Very Not At All To visit friends or relatives Not Very Quite Not Very Not At All To go to personal appointments Not Very Somewhat Not Very Not At All To get a personal vehicle fixed Not Very Not Very Not Very Not At All To shop for basic needs items Not Very Not Very Not Very Not At All % of Respondents Note: Performed using cluster analysis Respondent characteristics of these four groups include (see Appendix E for details): Regular, Worker, Users represent approxmately one in five respondents; more likely to be aged 18 to 34; are more likely to be male; all have access to a personal vehicle, work or go to school in Calgary; more likely to live in a household with children living at home; and more likely to live in Okotoks (see Table 3.3 on next page). Occasional Users about one in seven respondents; more likely to be aged 18 to 34; least likely of the groups to have access to a personal vehicle; least likely to work in Calgary; and more likely to live in Nanton. Infrequent Users one in four respondents; more likely to be aged 65+; and more likely to be female. Non-Users four in ten respondent and more likely to be aged 65+. HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

22 Table 3.3: Type of User by Community Type of User Turner Valley (n=145) Black Diamond (n=144) Okotoks (n=337) Nanton (n=148) Total (n=774) Regular Worker User Occasional User Infrequent User Non-User Total Expected Frequency of Trips Respondents who had given some indication in their responses 1 that they might use a regional transit service were asked about expected frequency of travel when traveling between their communities and Calgary. Table 3.4 shows that six in ten respondents stated they would use the service weekly (three or more times a week or about once or twice a week). Other respondents stated they would expect to use the service less frequently. Actually, the most common response about expected use among these respondents was three or more times a week. Frequency Table 3.4: Expected Frequency of Travel between Community and Calgary % of Responses Turner Valley Black Diamond Okotoks Nanton Total (n=76) (n=76) (n=207) (n=75) (n=463) Three or more times a week About once or twice a week At least once every two weeks At least once a month At least every two or three months At least once every six months At least once a year It depends Total Okotoks respondents are significantly more likely to use the regional transit service on a weekly basis. Less than half of respondents from Turner Valley, Black Diamond, and Nanton indicated that they would use the regional transit service at least once a week. 1 Respondents would have indicated very, quite, or somewhat likely to use regional transit services to questions presented in Figure 3.1. HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

23 When considering the frequency of travel based on the type of user, Regular Worker Users, and to a much lesser extent Occasional Users, are significantly more likely to use the service on a weekly basis compared to Infrequent Users and Non-Users as presented in Table 3.5. Some caution should be considered when observing these data as many of the Infrequent Users and Non-Users are not presented in the Table 3.5. For example, almost half and three-quarters of Infrequent Users and Non-Users had indicated they would be not very likely or not at all likely to use the regional transit service and, as such, are not presented in Table 3.5. If these data were to be included, expected frequency of use would be much less than what is presented. However, the data give some indication of the extent to which Regular Worker Users and, to a lesser extent, Occasional Users would represent the primary and secondary markets for the regional transit service. Frequency Table 3.5: Expected Frequency of Travel between Community and Calgary % of Responses Regular Worker User Occasional User Infrequent User Non- User Total (n=149) (n=98) (n=116) (n=82) (n=445) Three or more times a week About once or twice a week At least once every two weeks At least once a month At least every two or three months At least once every six months At least once a year It depends Total HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

24 Expected Days of Trips Table 3.6 reveals that the most prominent travel days for using a regional transit service is Monday through Friday. Among those who had indicated that they would be very, quite, or somewhat likely to use the service, more than half would use it during weekdays and less than half would be on weekends. Travel Days Table: 3.6: Expected Travel Days Between Community and Calgary Turner Valley % of Respondents Black Diamond Okotoks Nanton Total (n=80) (n=79) (n=210) (n=75) (n=473) Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday It depends Type of user information for days of week are presented in Table 3.7. These data show that Regular Worker Users and, to a lesser extent, Occasional Users are much more likely to use the regional transit service during weekdays. Again, however, caution should be considered when observing these data as many of the Infrequent Users and Non-Users are not presented in the Table 3.7. Even so, the data may suggest that weekend users are more likely to be among Occasional Users and Infrequent Users than Regular Worker Users. Travel Days Table: 3.7: Expected Travel Days Between Community and Calgary Regular Worker Users Occasional Users % of Respondents Infrequent Users Non- Users Total (n=150) (n=98) (n=117) (n=86) (n=451) Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday It depends HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

25 Times of Trips Travel on the regional transit service between communities and Calgary is expected to be primarily between 6:00 am and midnight pm (Table 3.8). Primary travel times to Calgary is expected to be between 6:00 am and noon, while from Calgary to the communities between 3:00 pm and 6:00 pm. Secondary travel times to Calgary are between noon and 9:00 pm and from Calgary between noon and 3:00 pm and 6:00 pm to 9:00 pm. Table: 3.8: Expected Times of Travel between Community and Calgary % of Respondents From Community to Calgary From Calgary to Community Times of Travel TV BD OK NT Total TV BD OK NT Total (n=80) (n=79) (n=210) (n=75) (n=473) (n=80) (n=79) (n=210) (n=75) (n=473) Between Between 9:00 am up to noon Between noon up to 3:00 pm Between 3:00 pm up to 6:00 pm Between Between 9:00 pm up to midnight Between midnight up to 3:00 am Between 3:00 am up to 6:00 am It depends Note: TV is Turner Valley, BD is Black Diamond, OK is Okotoks, and NT is Nanton. Travel times of various users are presented in Table 3.9. Regular Worker Users are much more likely to use the regional transit service to Calgary between 6:00 am and 9:00 pm and from Calgary between 3:00 pm and 6:00 pm. In contrast, Occasional users would use the service to Calgary between 9:00 am and noon, but the same time as Regular Worker Users when returning from Calgary. Table: 3.9: Expected Times of Travel between Community and Calgary % of Respondents From Community to Calgary From Calgary to Community Times of Travel RWU OU IU NU Total RWU OU IU NU Total (n=150) (n=98) (n=117) (n=86) (n=451) (n=150) (n=98) (n=117) (n=86) (n=451) Between Between 9:00 am up to noon Between noon up to 3:00 pm Between 3:00 pm up to 6:00 pm Between Between 9:00 pm up to midnight Between midnight up to 3:00 am Between 3:00 am up to 6:00 am It depends Note: RWU is Regular Worker Users, OU is Occasional Users, IU is Infrequent Users, and NU is Non-Users. HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

26 Seasonal Influence of Trips Most survey respondents thought that their use of a regional transit service would be the same throughout the year (Figure 3.5). However, about one in three respondents indicated their use would change; mainly in terms of higher use during the winter season (Table 3.10). % Figure 3.5: Expected Seasonal Use of a Regional Transit Service between Community and Calgary 80% 60% 40% 20% 61% 61% 39% 39% 73% 27% 57% 43% 71% 29% Similar during the winter, spring, summer and fall seasons Different during these seasons 0% Turner Valley (n=76) Black Diamond (n=71) Okotoks (n=206) Nanton (n=74) Total (n=462) Table 3.10: Expected Seasonal Use between Community and Calgary % of Respondents Turner Valley Black Diamond Okotoks Nanton Total (n=30) (n=30) (n=54) (n=30) (n=128) WINTER - do not travel to and from Calgary WINTER - travel less to and from Calgary WINTER - travel more to and from Calgary SPRING - do not travel to and from Calgary SPRING - travel less to and from Calgary SPRING - travel more to and from Calgary SUMMER - do not travel to and from Calgary SUMMER - travel less to and from Calgary SUMMER - travel more to and from Calgary FALL - do not travel to and from Calgary FALL - travel less to and from Calgary FALL - travel more to and from Calgary Multiple response, number of responses (48) (49) (92) (50) (239) HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

27 When considering types of users, a significant majority of those who were identified as Regular Worker Users expected that their use of the regional transit service would be similar during all seasons (Figure 3.6). Among these respondents, those who felt their seasonal use would change felt that they would travel less during the winter season and more during summer season (Table 3.11). % Figure 3.6: Expected Seasonal Use of a Regional Transit Service between Community and Calgary 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 81% 19% Regular Worker (n=150) 58% 42% Occassional (n=93) 72% 70% 72% 28% 30% 28% Infrequent (n=115) Non-User (n=83) (n=441) Similar during the winter, spring, summer and fall seasons Different during these seasons Table 3.11: Expected Seasonal Use between Community and Calgary % of Respondents Regular Worker Users Occasional Users Infrequent Users Non- Users Total (n=29) (n=38) (n=31) (n=23) (n=120) WINTER - do not travel to and from Calgary WINTER - travel less to and from Calgary WINTER - travel more to and from Calgary SPRING - do not travel to and from Calgary SPRING - travel less to and from Calgary SPRING - travel more to and from Calgary SUMMER - do not travel to and from Calgary SUMMER - travel less to and from Calgary SUMMER - travel more to and from Calgary FALL - do not travel to and from Calgary FALL - travel less to and from Calgary FALL - travel more to and from Calgary Multiple response, number of responses (41) (75) (61) (28) (205) HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

28 Reasons for Use Table 3.12 shows that the reasons for why respondents would use the regional transit service are primarily focussed around cost such as an expectation that the service would be a cheaper way to travel or use will depend on cost. Other reasons include preference not to drive, comfort or convenience, to avoid parking (which can also be associated with cost), and environmental concerns (vehicles creating pollution)> Reason Table 3.12: Reasons for Using Transit Service To Travel Between Community and Calgary % of Respondents Turner Black Valley Diamond Okotoks Nanton Total (n=80) (n=79) (n=210) (n=75) (n=472) Expect it will be cheaper to travel by transit It will depend on how much it costs Prefer not to drive Expect is will be comfortable or relaxing Avoid parking Personal vehicles pollute the environment Safer travel; avoid driving in poor weather/road conditions Avoid traffic/driving in Calgary Avoid drinking and driving Expect it will be convenient Less wear and tear on vehicle Do not have access to personal vehicle/driver's license Would consider for work commute Nice alternative if unable to drive/vehicle breaks down Allows multi-tasking; do other things while travelling It will depend on location of access points/bus stops It will depend on bus schedule Would be good for kids To get to and from Calgary airport Other Don't know Multiple response, number of responses (112) (122) (321) (126) (724) HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc

29 Cost becomes more of an influence when considering the reasons for use among types of users of the regional transit service, particularly among Regular Worker Users (Table 3.13). When reasons such as expect travel to be cheaper, it would depend on cost, and avoiding parking, which is typically also related to cost, a considerable portion of Regular Worker Users identify cost as a primary reason for using the regional transit service. Reason Table 3.13: Reasons for Using Transit Service To Travel Between Community and Calgary Expect it will be cheaper to travel by public transit % of Respondents Regular Worker Users Occasional Users Infrequent Users Non- Users Total (n=150) (n=97) (n=117) (n=86) (n=451) It will depend on how much it costs Prefer not to drive Expect is will be comfortable or relaxing Avoid parking Personal vehicles pollute the environment Safer travel; avoid driving in poor weather/road conditions Avoid traffic/driving in Calgary Avoid drinking and driving Expect it will be convenient Less wear and tear on vehicle Would consider for work commute Nice alternative if unable to drive/vehicle breaks down Do not have access to personal vehicle/driver's license Allows multi-tasking; do other things while travelling It will depend on location of access points/bus stops Would be good for kids It will depend on bus schedule To get to and from Calgary airport Other Don't know Multiple response, number of responses (250) (157) (152) (133) (691) HarGroup Management Consultants, Inc