Focus on importance of the interface and practical significance of this consultation s work Jan Slingenbergh (FAO)

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Focus on importance of the interface and practical significance of this consultation s work Jan Slingenbergh (FAO)"

Colin Richards
5 years ago
Views:

Second FAO/OIE/WHO joint scientific consultation on

human-animal interface, 27-29 April 2010, Verona Focus

significance of this consultation s work Jan

address the pressures on the environment that cause new

1 Second FAO/OIE/WHO joint scientific consultation on Influenza and other emerging infectious diseases at the human-animal interface, April 2010, Verona Focus on importance of the interface and practical significance of this consultation s work Jan Slingenbergh (FAO) Excerpt: There is an urgency to address the pressures on the environment that cause new diseases and threaten world health. EID events as indicators of imbalances in the landscape. 1

2 The effects of humans on the earth terrestrial surface area: - climate change - deforestation - loss of biodiversity - loss of soil fertility - fresh water availability - pests and diseases (plants, animals and humans) 2

3 the weight of agriculture and land pressures... Encircled are regions where deforestation and irrigation already have modified evatranspiration, and where they coincide with area where soil moisture has been suggested to have a substantial impact on rainfall. ecological dynamics Equilibrium between pathogen invasiveness and the invasibility of the host environment disease pathogen genetic evolution 3

4 Human living environment Fauna in (protected) ecosystems Food and agriculture dynamics at the interfaces 4

5 Human living environment Fauna in (protected) ecosystems Food and agriculture Changes in host domain size Human living environment Fauna in (protected) ecosystems Food and agriculture Changes in the landscape as habitat 5

2008 rabies cases in wildlife mapped at NUTS 3 level (source: Rabies Bulletin Europe) Rabies cases in Belarus by animal type, 1990 to 2008 1000 900 800 700 Fox Cases 600 500 400 Fox Dog Cat Raccoon

6 2008 rabies cases in wildlife mapped at NUTS 3 level (source: Rabies Bulletin Europe) Rabies cases in Belarus by animal type, 1990 to Fox Cases Fox Dog Cat Raccoon dog Cattle Dog Cat Species with under 50 cases in all years not shown Year Source: Rabies Bulletin Europe 6

7 Rabies Cases in Russia, Fox Cases Cattle Dog Fox Dog Cattle Cat Raccoon dog Goat sheep Equine Cat Year Source: Rabies Bulletin Europe Species with under 50 cases in all years not shown Rabies Cases in Lithuania, Raccoon dog Cases Fox Raccoon dog Fox Cattle Dog Cat Other musteides Cattle Species with under 50 cases in all years not shown Year Source: Rabies Bulletin Europe 7

Percent 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 GDP per capita (fixed PPP) Urban agglomeration, Country Projected 2025 population

of the Congo 16.8 70% 3,012 Delhi, India 22.5 46% 2,688 Kolkata, India 20.6 46% 2,456 Karachi, Pakistan 19.1 46% 2,296 Lagos, Nigeria 15.8 45% 1,845 Shanghai, China 19.

8 Percent 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 GDP per capita (fixed PPP) Urban agglomeration, Country Projected 2025 population (millions)[1 ] Estimated percent of UFW available to scavengers Predicted 2025 daily UFW available to scavengers (tonnes) Mumbai, India % 3,089 Dhaka, Bangladesh % 3,084 Kinshasa, D. R. of the Congo % 3,012 Delhi, India % 2,688 Kolkata, India % 2,456 Karachi, Pakistan % 2,296 Lagos, Nigeria % 1,845 Shanghai, China % 1,518 Manila, Philippines % 1,524 Cairo, Egypt % 1,410 Lahore, Pakistan % 1,264 Chennai, India % 1,210 São Paulo, Brazil % 1,108 Mexico City, Mexico % 1,100 Jakarta, Indonesia % 1,157 Beijing, China % 1,137 Bangalore, India % 1,161 Hyderabad, India % 1,086 Chittagong, Bangladesh % 1,070 Kabul, Afghanistan % 1,036 Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam % 957 Guangzhou, Guangdong, China % 925 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia % 944 Ahmadabad, India % 924 Yangon Myanmar % 874 Human N living environment Fauna in (protected) ecosystems Food and agriculture C N C N Changes in host community composition and numbers 8

Human Livestock mammals 5 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

9 Poultry, Human and Livestock Mammal Populations Source: FAOSTAT and UN Population Division Population in billions Poultry Human Livestock mammals Year Poultry in the World slide 5 9

10 feed surplus/deficit soymeal animal agriculture has become globalised; feed, live animals and products Human living environment Fauna in (protected) ecosystems Food and agriculture Ad hoc host incursions across host domains; -Humans in forest: Lyme, Hanta or TBE; -Red foxes coming to town: rabies -Fruit bats to mango trees: Nipah 10

11 ecological dynamics Equilibrium between pathogen invasiveness and the invasibility of the host environment disease pathogen genetic evolution What does pathogen evolution entail? Pathogens -display natural plasticity (Ro adjustment, no new pathogen) 3 new patterns may evolve: - new host = species jump (host range) - new infection process = virulence jump (host body) - new transmission pattern (host population / landscape) 11

12 Emerging new pathogen - typologies A B C -species jump - virulence jump - new transmission pattern - change in contact / - aggressive spread - new host landscape / exposure host species sustainable new subpopulations - (long) incubation - shorter incubation - more instant (lengthening of chain) - unchecked - SLIR modulated - gradual but progressive 3 distinct ecological invasions species jump; HIV 1 host range adjustment almost evolving in sync 2 new course of infection 3 adjustment transmission mode / pattern 1 SARS 2 3 X, aborted 1 ph1n1 (2009)

13 virulence jump H5N1 panzootic 2 new host type 1 new course of infection 3 new transmission i features Gumboro hypervirulent see above NDV velogenic see above BTV8 2 3 new transmission features 1 RVFV see above ASFV see above 13

14 A - species jump B - virulence jump C - transmission triggers quest for food: mass rearing: new landscape: -bushmeat (HIV) - poultry - land use - wet market (SARS) - shrimps - climate change - recycling ruminant - sterile insects - trade + traffic cadavers (BSE) rare events - scaling up - invasion becoming common clones new ecology pathogen type / transmission modes: - unknown pathogens - common bugs - existing bugs respiratory agents fecal-oral arbo-viruses body fluids water, food encephalopathy skin Number of infected hosts time 14

EID events SLIR demographics and invasion

viruses African sw wine Fever virus Chiku

build up / consolidation as new pathogen A

v BTV ASF RVF PPR BSE X new host species /

15 EID events SLIR demographics and invasion ecology Number of infe ected hosts rabies viruses African sw wine Fever virus Chiku ungunya virus Bluetongue virus PPRV WNV ph1n1 HIV/aids PRRSV dengue v H5N1 RVFV Gumboro v NDV SARS BSE = genetic diversity build up / consolidation as new pathogen A B MRSA C HIV SARS ph1n1 X H5N1 HPAI E.Coli Salm. Gumboro PRRS NDV TBE CCHF Hanta WNV rabies v BTV ASF RVF PPR BSE X new host species / type new, more severe infection process new transmission features Pathogens in the new niche 15

16 FAO in One Health/ Emerging Pandemic Threats: - One Flu type concept (including wild birds, aquatic + terrestrial) - Regional lah Centres, - AH (OFFLU/GLEWS) - VPH - sustainable animal agriculture - nrm / wildlife health - impact assessment - partnerships; - social resilience : DALY equivalents in terms of food security / livelihood effects grams of protein not generated in a given smallholder production system because of local disease burden? Influenza A host radiation main agricultural encroachment H1, 3 +? in domestic pigs? human influenza A H1,3 H1 H3? H1,3 HPAI H5,7 + H9 terrestrial wild birds H1-16 * * * HPAI H5,7? + H9? H1? others? H1,3 H1-16 HPAI H5,7 + H9 H1-16 / other HA subtypes domestic waterfowl? terrestrial poultry HPAI H5 HPAI H7? H5? H7?? H1-16 * wild water bird reservoir H1-16 H1-16 *: so far not sustained; spill- over only slide 4 16

17 H5N1 niche map Can we fix the emerging disease challenge? yes, provided we start respecting the landscape pathogen linkages global food animal supplies S H E landscape bound O/I t...and smartly blend productivity and sustainability 17

Emerging global health threats of animal origin

Emerging global health threats of animal origin Ahmed El Idrissi Senior Officer Transboundary Animal Diseases and zoonoses Animal Production and Health Division FAO - Rome 9 th meeting of the REMESA JPC