July 24, Dr. Dennis Carroll Global Health Bureau Director, Global Health Security and Development. Emerging Threats Program

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1 Africa Livestock Futures - Through a Lens of Zoonotic Disease Threats: Maximizing the Benefits and Minimizing the Unintended Consequences of Expanded Livestock Production July 24, 2014 Dr. Dennis Carroll Global Health Bureau Director, Global Health Security and Development

2 Some Key Background Information In the past ten years, rapid economic growth in Africa has been comparable or greater to that of the Asian Tiger, Latin Puma markets, gaining them the new nickname, the Lion Markets By 2050 nearly half of the projected 2 billion population living in sub-saharan Africa will be middle class While consumption of meat in the region has been historically low, the demand for animal protein is likely to increase >4-6 fold over the coming three decades

3 Some Key Background Information Small farm holdings and pastoralism are currently the primary production systems, with traditional open markets the dominate market system An unmanaged increase in production and marketing, as occurred in Asia over the previous four decades, could bring adverse consequences, including: pressure on natural resources, such as water and land, increased greenhouse gas emissions, and increased threats of zoonotic diseases

4 The questions are What kind of production and market systems will be employed across Africa to meet the surge in demand? Will these system(s) maximize the benefits offered by increased food sources and minimize the unintended consequences? Can Africa avoid repeating the Asian experience?

5 But First, Zoonotic Disease Emergence Three-quarters of emerging disease threats arise from animal reservoirs Emergence is closely linked to geographic hot spots where there is intensive animal-human interactions amplified by environmental changes Most new microbes come from wildlife - in particular from bats, rodents, non-human primates Diseases emerging from wildlife Diseases emerging from farm animals Livestock play a critical role in enabling the amplification and spread of novel microbial threats The human-animal-ecosystem interface is at the center of new disease emergence * Global Trends in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Jones, et al., 2008, Nature, 451: ** People, Pathogens and Our Planet Volume 1: Towards a One Health Approach for Controlling Zoonotic Diseases, World Bank.

6 Rapidly increasing human population

7 Multisectoral Problems require Multisectoral Solutions-1 All contribute to habitat change Rapidly increasing human population = Expanding Settlements Increasing domestic animal production Increasing crop production Increasing natural resource extraction (e.g. timber, minerals, oil/gas) Increasing animal-human contact and spillover rate trigger new infectious diseases

8 Hard Lessons Already Learnt In Asia during the second half of the 20 th century there was a dramatic rise in GDP

9 Hard Lessons Already Learnt The dramatic rise in GDP in turn led to a surge in livestock production = Pork = Poultry Meat = Beef

10 Recent Detection of Avian Influenza Viruses in Asia June 2013-March 2014 Virus sub-type H5N1 HPAI* H5N2 HPAI H5N8 HPAI H6N1 AI^ H7N2 HPAI H7N9 AI H9N2 AI Sources: OIE, WHO; * Highly-Pathogenic Avian Influenza; ^ Avian Influenza. Hosts for each of the influenza virus sub-types are indicated as follows: humans ( ); poultry ( ); wild birds ( ). Dots shows the approximate location where an influenza virus sub-type was detected in any of the hosts. H10N8 AI = not detected in people prior to 2013 Slide Courtesy of Andrew Clements

11 Hard Lessons Already Learnt (cont) The surge in livestock production in Asia largely appropriated traditional production and marketing systems characterized by their low bio-security Farms and markets became cauldrons of viral mixing and points of spill over into human populations The past decade has been focused on trying to minimize the consequences, while restructuring the production and marketing systems. Africa is a region with significantly greater wild life and viral diversity suggesting the consequences of poorly managed expansion of livestock production and marketing could dramatically eclipse what we experienced in Asia

12 Viruses discovered to date in Africa * PREDICT definition of a novel virus: has equal or greater genetic variation than the difference between the two closest known virus species within a family/genus and it represents a distinct (monophyletic) lineage. Note: while PREDICT data may be strongly suggestive that some viruses are novel, such classification can only be conferred by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV). ^ Sampling conducted in the following countries: Cameroon, Democratic Rep. of Congo, Gabon, Rep. of Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda. Priority animal taxa for sampling are bats, rodents, and non-human primates. Viral testing covers the following DNA and RNA viral families: Adeno-, Alpha-, Arena-, Astro-, Boca-, Bunya-, Corona-, Entero-, Flavi-, Filo-, Hanta-, Henipa-, Herpes, Influenza, Lyssa-, Orbi-, Paramyxo-, Phlebo-, Polyoma-, Pox-, Retro- (Lentivirus genus), Rhabdo-, Seadorna-.

13 Looking at the Future: Africa By 2050 Africa s Population will more than double to > 2 billion More than 50% (>1 billion) will be urban More than 40% of the population will be middle class Consumption of animal protein will increase 4-6 fold Livestock production is projected to increase by >4 fold Wildlife habitats will be further fragmented by expanded human settlements and increased agricultural production further driving animal-human interactions

14 Millions Sub-Sahara Africa Population: , ,

15 Africa An Emerging Economic Lion Over the past decade 12 of the world s 20 fastest growing economies are in Africa

16 Economic Growth is Broadly Based

17 Giving Rise to Greater Household Wealth

18 Projected Total Consumption of Livestock Products (tonnes 000s) a. milk SSP SSP SSP CongoBasin EasternAf SouthernAfrica WesternAf b. Monogastric meat CongoBasin EasternAf SouthernAfrica WesternAf SSP1 SSP2 SSP c. Ruminant meat CongoBasin EasternAf WesternAf SouthernAfrica SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 Source: Africa Livestock Futures -2050

19 Projected Total Livestock Production a. Milk Congo Basin Eastern Africa Western Africa Southern Africa b. Monogastric meat Congo Basin Eastern Africa Western Africa Southern Africa SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP1 SSP2 SSP c. Ruminant meat Congo Basin Eastern Africa Western Africa Southern Africa SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 Source: Africa Livestock Futures -2050

20 Learning from the Past: Key Challenges and Actions As we anticipate the surge in demand for animal protein how do we apply the lessons from Asia to maximize the benefits of increased livestock production in Africa while minimizing the unintended consequences? Consider: Africa s livestock production and marketing systems (relative to the projected scale expected by 2050) are without mortgage The opportunity is to guide the projected expansion in advance of the expansion in ways consistent with established best practices How to persuade policy makers (in governments and the development community) and industry leaders to embrace best production and marketing practices

21 USAID s Africa Livestock Futures 1n 2014 USAID entered into a partnership with FAO, WHO and development partners to promote policies and practices for safe production and marketing of livestock in advance of the projected surge Gathering evidence Employing scenario -based policy advocacy Targeting policy makers in regional platforms (AU), sub-regional economic/development unions (ie. SADC), and national leadership across multiple sectors Partnering with private sector

22 We can t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them Albert Einstein