Introduction to System Dynamics. Healthcare Systems Engineering Institute Northeastern University, Boston, MA 06/11/2015
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1 Introduction to System Dynamics Northeastern University, Boston, MA 06/11/201
2 System Dynamics A modeling and simulation approach to understand the behaviors of complex dynamic systems 2
3 System Dynamics A modeling and simulation approach to understand the behaviors of complex dynamic systems 3
4 Example Problems Healthcare 4
5 Example Problems
6 Example Problems Business 6
7 Principles of Systems Thinking 1. Direct Causality As opposed to mere correlation Eating Organic Food Autism 7
8 Principles of Systems Thinking 1. Direct Causality Birth Rate Price Exercise Population Demand Calories Burnt 8
9 Principles of Systems Thinking 1. Direct Causality 2. Circular Causality Exercise Calories Burnt Motivation Weight 9
10 Principles of Systems Thinking 1. Direct Causality 2. Circular Causality 3. Endogenous Focus Whole internal structure is the main cause of behavior, not some external forces Does not mean that external forces does not have influence 10
11 Stocks and Flows Stocks: represent level of accumulations over time Flows: represent the rate of change of stocks 11
12 Stock and Flow Examples 12
13 The Math Behind.. d/dt Stock = Inflow Outflow Stock(t) = Stock(tdt) dt*(inflow(t) Outflow(t)) 13
14 Software Vensim STELLA PowerSim AnyLogic 14
15 Vensim Software Free download for educational purpose at How to build a model on Vensim? 1
16 The Problem An endangered rabbit population in an isolated island No arrivals/departs, births and deaths only No constraints (food, predator, etc.) 16
17 Sample Study Research Objective Longterm dynamics of developing insulin resistance and type II diabetes with specific focus on obese people 17
18 CausalLoop Diagram Food intake Carbohydrate Protein intake Glucose transport rate FFA insulin Lipolysis 6 3 food exercise Physical activity intake 2 balance Resting energy 1 Fat Fatfree Body weight Height Obesity Age Physical activity capacity Essential 4 Extra Extra glucose Betacell functionality 7 8 Insulin secretion level Muscle 18
19 . Major Loops Food intake Carbohydrate Protein intake Glucose transport rate FFA insulin Lipolysis 6 3 food exercise Physical activity intake 2 balance Resting energy 1 Fat Fatfree Body weight Height Obesity Age Physical activity capacity Essential 4 Extra Extra glucose Betacell functionality 7 8 Insulin secretion level Muscle 19
20 . Major Loops.. Food intake Carbohydrate Protein intake Glucose transport rate FFA insulin Lipolysis 6 3 food exercise Physical activity intake 2 balance Resting energy 1 Fat Fatfree Body weight Height Obesity Age Physical activity capacity Essential 4 Extra Extra glucose Betacell functionality 7 8 Insulin secretion level Muscle 20
21 . Major Loops.. Food intake Carbohydrate Protein intake Glucose transport rate FFA insulin Lipolysis 6 3 food exercise Physical activity intake 2 balance Resting energy 1 Fat Fatfree Body weight Height Obesity Age Physical activity capacity Essential 4 Extra Extra glucose Betacell functionality 7 8 Insulin secretion level Muscle 21
22 . Major Loops.. Food intake Carbohydrate Protein intake Glucose transport rate FFA insulin Lipolysis 6 3 food exercise Physical activity intake 2 balance Resting energy 1 Fat Fatfree Body weight Height Obesity Age Physical activity capacity Essential 4 Extra Extra glucose Betacell functionality 7 8 Insulin secretion level Muscle 22
23 . Major Loops.. Food intake Carbohydrate Protein intake Glucose transport rate FFA insulin Lipolysis 6 3 food exercise Physical activity intake 2 balance Resting energy 1 Fat Fatfree Body weight Height Obesity Age Physical activity capacity Essential 4 Extra Extra glucose Betacell functionality 7 8 Insulin secretion level Muscle 23
24 . Major Loops.. Food intake Carbohydrate Protein intake Glucose transport rate FFA insulin Lipolysis 6 3 food exercise Physical activity intake 2 balance Resting energy 1 Fat Fatfree Body weight Height Obesity Age Physical activity capacity Essential 4 Extra Extra glucose Betacell functionality 7 8 Insulin secretion level Muscle 24
25 . Major Loops.. Food intake Carbohydrate Protein intake Glucose transport rate FFA insulin Lipolysis 6 3 food exercise Physical activity intake 2 balance Resting energy 1 Fat Fatfree Body weight Height Obesity Age Physical activity capacity Essential 4 Extra Extra glucose Betacell functionality 7 8 Insulin secretion level Muscle 2
26 Stock Flow Diagram Graph func for eff of energy balance on fat Effect of energy balance on fat Effect of energy balance on fat breakdown physical activity PA capacity Physical activity level PA factor ized physical activity Physical activity capacity Effect of PA on extra muscle Effect of physical activity on tee Effect of bw on PA capacity Graph func for eff of PA on extra muscle Graph func for eff of bw on PA capacity Graph func for eff of PA on tee Effect of PA on extra Del time for adj 2 Graph func for eff of age on PA capacity Effect of PA on normal muscle Graph func for eff of PA on extra Adj 2 Effect of age on PA capacity ized age age Graph func for eff of PA on normal muscle effect of exercise tee <Time> Adj 1 Del time for adj 1 Delayed eff of PA on extra muscle Age coeff of ree Resting energy Age Delayed eff of PA on normal muscle Protein in kcal Age comp of ree effect of food Height coeff of ree yearstoweek Food intake Protein intake Protein balance Fat intake Carbohydrate intake balance in grams Excess bw comp of ree Height comp of ree ized energy balance balance Protein level Muscle bw coeff of ree CHO in kcal Kcaltograms Extra Extra Fat in kcal Muscle intake CHO intake Protein limit Graph func for eff of energy balance on fat breakdown Muscle degradation fat Fat Carbohydrate Essential Essential coeff Mpd coeff Fat CHO coeff Fbd fraction CHO breakdown ECW Fat breakdown Fat Fat free Body weight Bone Gramstokg ized bw Height in cm bw mtocm Body weight in kg 26 BMI Height
27 Some Behaviors Food intake for average man 1 Equilibrium 20,000 kcal/wk 2 Doubled Food Intake 40,000 kcal/wk 3 Excess Food Intake 30,000 kcal/wk 4 Insufficient Food Intake 1,000 kcal/wk Half Food Intake 10,000 kcal/wk Body weight 120, ,00 2 grams 8, ,00 0, Time (Week) 27 Body weight : EquilibriumRun Body weight : DoubledFoodIntake
28 And Some More.. grams 7,000 72,00 70,000 67,00 6,000 Base condition Body weight Time (Week) Body weight : EquilibriumRun Body weight : Light Body weight : Moderate Body weight : Active Body weight : Strenuous through physical activity 1 Sedentary 2478 kcal/wk grams 72,00 70,62 68,70 66,87 6,000 6 Body weight Time (Week) Body weight : EquilibriumRun 1 Body weight : AgeEff 2 2 Body weight : AgeEffLight 3 3 With aging effect Body weight : AgeEffModerate 4 Body weight : AgeEffActive Body weight : AgeEffStrenuous Lightly active 4130 kcal/wk 3 Moderately active 6090 kcal/wk 4 Very active 800 kcal/wk Extra active 11,060 kcal/wk Goodman,
29 Questions? 29
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