San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District April 30, Table of Contents

Transcription

1 Executive Summary Progress from ozone and PM10 Attainment Plans...ES-1 Expeditious Attainment...ES-2 What will this plan do?...es-2 Acronyms and Glossary Chapter 1: Progress and Current Air Quality 1.1 Introduction What is PM2.5? Adopted Rules Emissions and Current Air Quality Emissions Air Monitoring Data and Analysis Chapter 2: Meeting Federal Requirements 2.1 Introduction Health Effects Other Effects of PM Health-Based Standards State Standards Federal Standards Designations and Requirements Chapter 3: What is Needed to Demonstrate Attainment? 3.1 Introduction Challenges Natural Conditions Meteorology Horizontal Mixing (Transport) Vertical Mixing and Inversion Layers Fog Effects on PM Urban and Rural Comparison and Atmospheric Chemistry for PM Other Key Findings from Scientific Studies and SJV Evaluations Ammonium Nitrate Sensitivity to Sulfate Levels Precursor Relationships and Control Sensitivity Population Growth Jurisdictional Limits and Regulatory Authority Modeling i

2 3.3.1 Model Choice Model Application PM2.5 Speciation for Annual Rollback Modeling PM2.5 Methodology Revisions for Annual Receptor Modeling Weight of Evidence Speciated Modeled Attainment Test Modeling Results Discussion of Results Weight of Evidence Demonstration of Attainment PM2.5 Considerations in the Ozone Plan PM2.5 Effect on the Ozone Plan Chapter 4: Strategic Concepts 4.1 Introduction Overall Approach Integration of Ozone and PM2.5 Strategies Four-Faceted Control Strategy Local, State, and Federal Components Support from Other District Programs Compliance/Enforcement Public Education, Awareness, and Information Programs Events Materials Environmental Review Sustainable Incentives Chapter 5: Public Accountability Chapter 6: District Strategy 6.1 Introduction Regulatory component: RACT/RACM Stationary Source Control Measures Process for Identifying and Evaluating Potential Control Measures Implementation schedule for Stationary Source Control Measures District Incentive Programs Types of Incentive Programs Existing Incentive Funding Sources in the San Joaquin Valley District Innovative Strategies and Programs Fast Track Healthy Air Living ii

3 Chapter 7: Local, State, and Federal Controls 7.1 Introduction Local Component: Measures to Reduce Emissions by Improving Vehicle Use Legislative Requirements Conformity Budgets Summary of the State Strategy Adopted by the Air Resources Board Chapter 8: Reasonable Further Progress 8.1 Introduction Reasonable further Progress Requirements Reasonable further Progress Calculations Chapter 9: Conclusion 9.1 Attainment Outlook Attainment before Contingency Measures Introduction Contingency Measures Acknowledgements Appendices Appendix A: Ambient Air Quality Data and Analysis A.1 Introduction... A-1 A.2 Overview of Results: Annual and 24-hour PM2.5 Averages...A-1 A.3 PM2.5 Annual and 24-hour Attainment Status Calculations... A-2 A.3.1 Rounding Conventions...A-3 A.3.2 Data Completeness... A-3 A.3.3 Varying Sampling Schedules... A-5 A.3.4 Data Validity Flags... A-9 A.4 Data Analysis, A-9 A.5 Trend and Spatial Variations...A-10 A.5.1 Local Trends... A-10 A.6 Results using Preliminary 2007 Real-time 24-Hour PM2.5 Data... A-27 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory B.1 Introduction... B-1 B.2 Emissions Inventory Tables... B-3 B.3 Emissions Inventory Calculations and Revisions... B-27 iii

4 B.3.1 Emission Factors and Emission Equations... B-27 B.3.2 Emissions Inventory Updates... B-28 Appendix C: Conformity Budgets Documentation Appendix D: Emission Reduction Credits D.1 Introduction...D-1 D.2 Pre-Baseline Emission Reduction Credits...D-1 Appendix E: District Additions to the Conceptual Model Appendix F: SJV PM2.5 SIP Modeling Protocol Appendix G: Regional Air Quality Modeling Appendix H: Weight of Evidence Appendix I: Candidate Control Measures Appendix J: Comments and Responses J.1 Written Comments on the Proposed...J-1 J.2 Re-evaluation of Comments and Research Submitted by the California Cotton Ginners and Growers Associations, January 7, J-20 J.3 Verbal Comments, February 25-26, 2008 Public Workshops on the 2 nd Draft...J-21 J.3.1 February 25, 2:00pm Workshop...J-21 J.3.2 February 26, 6:30pm Workshop...J-26 J.4 Written Comments, December 18-19, 2007 Public Workshop on the Draft...J-28 J.5 Verbal Comments, December 18-19, 2007 Public Workshops on the Draft...J-42 J.5.1 December 18, 2007, 6:30 pm Workshop...J-42 J.5.2 December 19, 2007, 2:00 pm workshop...j-45 J.6 Written Comments, December 18-19, 2007 Public Workshop on the Draft...J-48 iv

5 List of Figures Figure ES-1 Percent of Valley s Population Living in Areas that Attain the 1997 PM2.5 Standard...ES-2 Figure ES-2 Annual Average NOx Emissions and NOx Attainment Target...ES-3 Figure ES-3 Mobile Source Contribution to NOx Emissions...ES-4 Figure 1-1 PM2.5 Formation Figure 1-2 Diameter Comparison: Human Hair, Sand, PM10, and PM Figure 1-3 PM2.5 and Precursor Emissions Reductions, Figure 1-4 Atmospheric Monitoring Sites within the San Joaquin Valley Figure 1-5 PM2.5 Design Values and Attainment Test Figure hour Design Values at Valley Sites, 2004, 2005, and Figure 1-7 Annual Design Values at Valley Sites, 2004, 2005, and Figure 2-1 AQI Values and Corresponding Air Quality, Colors, and Health Advisories Figure 3-1 San Joaquin Valley Topography Figure 3-2 Vertical Dispersion, With and Without Temperature Inversion Figure 3-3 NOx Precursor by Source Type Figure 3-4 Example annual PM2.5 source contributions, Kern 2014, including reductions Figure 9-1 Percent Contribution to Annual PM2.5 Concentrations Figure 9-2 Annual PM2.5 Principal Components and Reductions Figure A-1 Bakersfield - Planz 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 ( average) to 2006 ( average)...a-14 Figure A-2 Bakersfield - California 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 ( average) to 2006 ( average)...a-14 Figure A-3 Bakersfield - Golden 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 ( average) to 2006 ( average)...a-15 Figure A-4 Visalia 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 ( average) to 2006 ( average)... A-15 Figure A-5 Corcoran 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 ( average) to 2006 ( average)... A-16 Figure A-6 Fresno-Winery 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 ( average) to 2006 ( average)...a-16 v

6 Figure A-7 Fresno-1st 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 ( average) to 2006 ( average)... A-17 Figure A-8 Clovis 3-year average 98th Percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations...a-17 Figure A-9 Merced - M Street 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 1999 to A-18 Figure A-10 Modesto 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 1999 to A-18 Figure A-11 Stockton 3-year average 98th percentile 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations from 1999 to A-19 Figure A-12 Bakersfield - Planz 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to A-19 Figure A-13 Bakersfield - California 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to A-20 Figure A-14 Bakersfield - Golden 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to A-20 Figure A-15 Visalia 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to A-21 Figure A-16 Corcoran 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to A-21 Figure A-17 Fresno-Winery 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to A-22 Figure A-18 Fresno-1st 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to A-22 Figure A-19 Clovis 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to A-23 Figure A-20 Merced M Street 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to A-23 Figure A-21 Modesto - 14th 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to A-24 Figure A-22 Stockton - Hazelton 3-year average PM2.5 annual mean value from 1999 to A-24 Figure A-23 PM hour Design Value Comparison, 2002 and A-25 Figure A-24 PM2.5 Annual Mean Design Value Comparison, 2002 and A-26 vi

7 List of Tables Table 2-1 Federal and State Ambient Air Quality Standards for PM Table 2-2 Federal Requirements for PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas Table 3-1 SJVAB Population by County Table 3-2 San Joaquin Valley APCD PM2.5 Receptor Speciated Modeled Attainment Test Table 3-3 San Joaquin Valley APCD PM2.5 Regional Speciated Modeled Attainment Test Table 3-4 Regional Model Evaluation Table 3-5 Regional and Receptor Model Comparison Table 6-1 EPA s List of Suggested PM2.5 Control Measures Table 6-2 Stationary Source Regulatory Implementation Schedule Table 6-3a NOx Emissions Reductions Table 6-3b PM2.5 Emissions Reductions Table 6-3c SO 2 Emissions Reductions Table 6-4 Feasibility Study Implementation Schedule Table 6-5 Existing Funding Sources Table 6-6 NOx Reductions Achieved by District Incentive Measures with Assured Funding Table 6-7 Estimated New Funding Sources Table 7-1 Example County Emission Budget Calculation Table 7-2 Transportation Conformity Budgets Table 7-3 Expected Emission Reductions from 2007 SIP State Strategy Table 8-1 Emissions Inventory Adjusted for Plan Control Strategy Table 8-2 Determining Benchmark Milestones as tpd of Reductions Table 8-3 Comparison of 2009 and 2012 RFP Benchmarks and Projected Levels Table 8-4 Fraction of Reductions Achieved in Each Milestone Year Table 9-1 San Joaquin Valley PM2.5 Attainment Outlook Table A-1 SJV PM2.5 98th Percentile Value, , (µg/m3)... A-1 Table A-2 SJV PM2.5 Annual Mean Values, A-2 Table A-3 Data Completeness by Quarter, , as Percentages... A-4 Table A-4 Data Substitution for 98th Percentile Calculations, A-4 Table A-5 Sampling schedules for SJV air monitoring sites, A-5 Table A-6 Calculating Weighted Percentiles for Two Seasons,... A-7 Table A-7 Quarterly Averages, 2006 Bakersfield - Planz PM2.5 Values... A-8 vii

8 Table A-8 24-hour PM2.5 98th percentile values (μg/m3), A-11 Table A-9 3-year average of the 24-hour PM2.5 98th percentile values... A-11 Table A-10 Annual mean PM2.5 value concentrations (μg/m3)... A-12 Table A-11 3-year average of the annual mean PM2.5 values (μg/m3)... A-12 Table A-12 Current ( ) PM2.5 air quality design values and attainment status for the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin... A-13 Table A hour PM2.5 98th percentile values (μg / m3)... A-27 Table A-14 Complete Air Quality Data, A-28 Table B-1 Directly Emitted PM2.5, Annual and Winter Daily Averages... B-3 Table B-2 NOx, Annual and Winter Daily Averages... B-7 Table B-3 SO 2, Annual and Winter Daily Averages... B-12 Table B-4 VOC, Annual and Winter Daily Averages... B-17 Table B-5 Ammonia, Annual and Winter Daily Averages... B-21 Table D-1 Estimated NOx Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use...D-5 Table D-2 Estimated VOC Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use...D-8 Table D-3 Estimated PM2.5 Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use...D-11 Table D-4 Estimated SO 2 Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use...D-14 Table D-5 List of Emission Reduction Credits PM10 and PM2.5 Precursors...D-18 viii