U.S. Wheat Crop Update and Outlook

Transcription

1 U.S. Wheat Crop Update and Outlook IAOM Central, Wheat State and Texoma districts July 31, 2009 Justin Gilpin General Mills Kansas City, MO

2 U.S. Wheat Crop Update & Outlook US growing areas and trade flows 2009 Winter wheat crop Crop size and early quality data Quality data maps Soft wheat overview Spring wheat overview KC futures and basis World wheat situation and US fall crops Thinking out loud Summary

3

4 2009 HRW Crop Pacific Northwest (PNW) California Arrows depict traditional export trade flows Gulf of Mexico (Gulf)

5 HRW Harvest Activity: Moving into northern Plains

6 Winter wheat Production

7 2009 Winter Wheat Crop Quality Proteins vary widely. Above average for TX, OK, below for KS, CO. Test weights very good in Northern areas, southern plains challenged. Extractions seem similar to better than last year on average tw HRW. Farinograph stability good, abosorption below average, ash higher on average. Mills gravitating to a % grind.

8 2005 FORECAST AND 2004 FINAL Pltd. 1,125 1, Harv , Yield Prod. 9,045 38, Pltd. 1,355 1,340-1 Harv. 1,275 1, Yield Prod. 53,590 51,000-5 Pltd Harv Yield Prod. 12,645 11, Pltd. 1,190 1, Harv , Yield Prod. 18,995 44, Pltd. 1,520 1, Harv. 1,460 1, Yield Prod. 62,655 65, Pltd Harv Yield Prod. 11,350 7, Pltd. 1,510 1,510 NC Harv. 1,345 1, Yield Prod. 42,135 56, Pltd. 2,240 2, Harv. 2,075 2, Yield Prod. 84,795 87, Pltd Harv Yield Prod. 19,290 12, Note: ACRES AND PRODUCTION IN THOUSANDS & CHG. STATE: ACRES PLANTED 10,000 10, ACRES HARVESTED 8,500 9, YIELD PRODUCTION 314, ,

9 2005 FORECAST AND 2004 FINAL Pltd. 1,125 1, Harv , Yield Prod. 9,045 38, Pltd. 1,355 1,340-1 Harv. 1,275 1, Yield Prod. 53,590 51,000-5 Pltd Harv Yield Prod. 12,645 11, Pltd. 1,190 1, Harv , Yield Prod. 18,995 44, Pltd. 1,520 1, Harv. 1,460 1, Yield Prod. 62,655 65, Pltd Harv Yield Prod. 11,350 7, Pltd. 1,510 1,510 NC Harv. 1,345 1, Yield Prod. 42,135 56, Pltd. 2,240 2, Harv. 2,075 2, Yield Prod. 84,795 87, Pltd Harv Yield Prod. 19,290 12, Note: ACRES AND PRODUCTION IN THOUSANDS & CHG. STATE: ACRES PLANTED 10,000 10, ACRES HARVESTED 8,500 9, YIELD PRODUCTION 314, ,

10 2005 FORECAST AND 2004 FINAL Pltd. 1,125 1, Harv , Yield Prod. 9,045 38, Pltd. 1,355 1,340-1 Harv. 1,275 1, Yield Prod. 53,590 51,000-5 Pltd Harv Yield Prod. 12,645 11, Pltd. 1,190 1, Harv , Yield Prod. 18,995 44, Pltd. 1,520 1, Harv. 1,460 1, Yield Prod. 62,655 65, Pltd Harv Yield Prod. 11,350 7, Pltd. 1,510 1,510 NC Harv. 1,345 1, Yield Prod. 42,135 56, Pltd. 2,240 2, Harv. 2,075 2, Yield Prod. 84,795 87, Pltd Harv Yield Prod. 19,290 12, Note: ACRES AND PRODUCTION IN THOUSANDS & CHG. STATE: ACRES PLANTED 10,000 10, ACRES HARVESTED 8,500 9, YIELD PRODUCTION 314, ,

11 2009 Spring Wheat outlook Harvest just starting to get underway in South Dakota Good size crop, excellent growing conditions Protein: Tale of Two Dakotas. Trends indicate North Dakota average sub 14.5% pro South Dakota early showing protein Potentially some scab in small pockets

12 2009 Soft Wheat outlook Harvest through northern Ohio Tw and damage much better than southern harvest Missouri, crummy for the most part Pockets of decent tw and low damage Eastern Missouri, tw issues and vomitoxin Illinois similar to last year milling Slightly higher ash Soft red overall, poorer milling crop, vomitoxin concerns White wheat just getting under way ID and MI

13

14 US Corn and Bean crop Huge, will exceed 2004 record crop Larger than early projections In 2004 both corn and soybeans had record yields. Corn yield was 12.8% above previous record and soybean yield was 2.3% above previous record. Current record for corn is 160.3bu and 43bu for soybeans. Implications are expect feed grains burdensome size to cap any price rallies in wheat Next year probably still ok, but 2011 could be interesting.

15 World Wheat Situation India monsoons weaker than average Quality concerns out of FSU, Germany and Poland South America still very dry Australia has had good conditions, they will be very important Canada pockets of dryness, but crop is behind potential risk of late freeze.

16 US Wheat Crop Update Summary Larger crop than 2008 Southern states struggled, Northern states had good bushels Test weights and TKW appear better than average Drought and freeze hurt production and quality in the southern plains but cooler/wet weather helped the filling of wheat from Kansas north One of the better milling quality crops Kansas has had in the last five years, some similarities to 2005 Lower protein than last year Smaller growing area under severe heat / drought stress HRW nearby futures look to range between $ $6.50 Follower of feed grains and Argentina/Australia crop predications

17 KSU Centennial The Department of Grain Science and Industry was established as a separate department in Our Centennial Celebration is coming up fast, with a tentative date for formal ceremonies on September 25, If you would like to participate as a sponsor for the Centennial Celebration and/or the Centennial Seminar Series event, please contact me at dmaier@ksu.edu. Dirk E. Maier Professor and Head

18 Thinking Outloud...item#2 Monsanto buying Westbred is a Game Changer Wheat variety development evolving and IAOM, specifically this district, should be proactive! Plants for the Heartland Innovation Center Kansas Wheat and KSU center for plant genetics Overly example of how milling trait tried to be incorporated Opportunity exists for IAOM to get more involved on input into research.